Public Address | Cafe | Polity: Four cents on Brexit, Fonterra, and New Zealand

Matthew Hooton

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 12:17:33 +1200

I thought your point was that the quota could be cut. I assumed this when I read: "I think there’s a real chance that Fonterra, and potentially other major agricultural exporters, will find themselves losing some of their EU access well before they gain any countervailing access to the UK."

Ianmac

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 11:15:01 +1200

Red meat gets in via the EU but the Brit producers/farmers resent NZ meat. So will there now be moves to block meat into Britain?

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 09:47:10 +1200

If it’s of interest...
...backatcha – this book may well be grist to your mill (and Babbage's!):
Music and the Making of Modern Science
By Peter Pesic
Overview
In the natural science of ancient Greece, music formed the meeting place between numbers and perception; for the next two millennia, Pesic…

andin

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 07:38:38 +1200

By the tenor of your post you seem to be presuming I didnt read that jargon filled facebook post. Is that your intuition again?

izogi

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 06:55:02 +1200

...and a damned fine diversion it is too – just perfect for a sick-abed biped... thank you for this.

Neat. If it's of interest, Kathryn Ryan interviewed the author/artist last year.

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 06:37:29 +1200

Tales of Two-Fisted Polymaths!!
Okay, a diversion. ...
...and a damned fine diversion it is too – just perfect for a sick-abed biped... thank you for this.

The 'Economy Model' reminds me of NZ's own "MONIAC (Monetary National Income Analogue Computer) also known as the Phillips Hydraulic Computer and the…

Joe Wylie

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 04:34:37 +1200

From my childhood I remembered Lodge as rather blokey mainly from his cartoons in the Sports Post.

As a member of the Royal Antediluvian Order of Buffaloes my father would occasionally head off to "the lodge" for some male bonding. Because Neville Lodge's work appeared under the title "Lodge Laughs",…

oga

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 02:43:47 +1200

This was the best analysis of why the UK should leave the EU that I read recently.

The Left and the EU: Why Cling to This Reactionary Institution?

Ben Austin

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 02:20:43 +1200

I've heard the figure of 20 full time trade negotiators actually work for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office at this point. They're going to be rather busy in the new brave world of amazing trade deals.

I remember noting to some Leave intellectuals (on Twitter of course) that modern trade…

izogi

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 23:47:58 +1200

(ref)

Babbage in, Babbage out…

Okay, a diversion. Since you've referenced Babbage, I highly recommend Sydney Padua's The Thrilling Adventures of Lovelace and Babbage... which is derived from the web comic that's nicely consolidated here.

Hilary Stace

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 22:29:55 +1200

Totally irrelevant to Brexit (although education itself is a relevant aspect), but I remember coming across this one just as the Labour Government was bringing in NCEA. Remember those days when you stayed at school until you got 200 marks in school cert in one year, however long it took?…

Hilary Stace

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 22:20:12 +1200

From my childhood I remembered Lodge as rather blokey mainly from his cartoons in the Sports Post. But I developed a new respect for him while working with hundreds of his cartoons. They had a strong narrative and were often -subtley – about the little man ranting against the powerful.…

Rob Salmond

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 22:14:13 +1200

Don’t know who your very smart trade professional was, but intuitively it doesn’t seem right. Charles Finny has a very different view:

Not sure I 100% agree with your police work there, Lou. From Finny's post:

And what about the quota arrangements applying to New Zealand in sensitive areas of…

Matthew Hooton

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 20:54:54 +1200

We have a free trade agreement with neither UK nor EU. The trade relationship is governed under WTO agreements .

Marc C

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 20:36:05 +1200

__"Once the UK triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, it loses basically all leverage with the EU, because within feasible bounds Brussels knows the UK has to take whatever deal is on offer. If the UK ever says: “well if that’s your bottom line, there’s no deal,” it…

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 20:17:02 +1200

I don't see how "not less favourable to trade" applies. NZ hasn't had a free trade agreement with Britain since 1973? It has one with the EU, which is a different entity.

Matthew Hooton

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:36:28 +1200

Yes, so read the link which explains the relevant WTO rules.

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:27:19 +1200

what a difference a machine makes…
Have to wonder what some of those earlier artists could have done with computers.
Babbage in, Babbage out…

andin

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:14:20 +1200

intuitively it doesn’t seem right.

Really! Intuitions, everyone has them, its what one believes they are whispering to their inner being when people usually get into trouble.
Now perhaps you are an exception, its not a rule.
Is that all you have to offer?

Matthew Hooton

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 18:56:15 +1200

Don't know who your very smart trade professional was, but intuitively it doesn't seem right. Charles Finny has a very different view: https://www.facebook.com/charles.finny.71/posts/1225138547518614

Joe Wylie

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 18:08:44 +1200

But what I remember about those cartoons was the size and quality of them....He had to produce a clever, witty, topical artwork every day and he sometimes drew caricatures of himself in the corner struggling to come up with ideas.
Thanks for that. Lodge loomed large in my cartoon-starved childhood.…

Sacha

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 17:36:57 +1200

Have to wonder what some of those earlier artists could have done with computers. Maybe just more?

Hilary Stace

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 17:13:22 +1200

Nice to see a Nevile Lodge cartoon.

Over a decade ago I had a very pleasant part time job cataloguing some of the hundreds of Lodge cartoons in the Turnbull Library collection. That was not one of mine, as the ones I worked on were from the 1970s, but the…

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 16:48:47 +1200

Well yeah. And often, if purchasing government ministers ask nicely, they can find their personal bank accounts get nicely filled up by arms companies:
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_bribery_scandals
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Yamamah_arms_deal

Not that any NZ politicians would engage in such shenanigans, unlike some of their UK counterparts.

Alfie

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 16:46:07 +1200

Also, Britain produces a lot of milk.

So does Ireland... more than they can cope with at the moment. In the UK 55% of the average farmer's income currently comes from EU money. The National Farmers Union is warning that prices will have to rise for UK farming to survive.…

Rob Salmond

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 16:20:17 +1200

Under WTO rules, the renegotiation process is meant to ensure that any changes are "not less favourable to trade ... prior to such negotiations". If not, compensation is required.

Interesting point, and thanks for posting it.

I expect, though, that phrases like "not less favourable to trade" are open to…

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 16:20:11 +1200

Bang, Bang...
And it’s not like the UK makes anything we can offer to buy in return –
Hasn't Gerry Brownlee got a 20 Billion budget to buy war stuff, and doesn't the UK make a lot of those sorts of things (6th biggest exporter in 2014) ?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/80835677/Defence-White-Paper-Government-unveils-20b-defence-plan-for-new-planes-boats-and-cyber-security…

Corin H

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 16:08:20 +1200

I think there’s a real chance that Fonterra, and potentially other major agricultural exporters, will find themselves losing some of their EU access well before they gain any countervailing access to the UK. That could cause big problems for us, and we should be hedging ourselves against that possibility with…

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:55:13 +1200

Also, Britain produces a lot of milk. Given they won't have EU access, EU subsidies or EU quotas it's likely that they'll want to protect their own farmers ahead of importing anything.

And it's not like the UK makes anything we can offer to buy in return – their car…

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:49:16 +1200

A good proportion of Fonterra’s current access to EU markets was granted as a continental concession in the 1973 negotiations for the UK’s EEC membership.
…and perhaps something Matthew Hooton forgot to look into when he damn near created Fonterra all by himself back at the turn of the millennia…

Hebe

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:27:12 +1200

Holy shit.
Seconded.

John Palethorpe

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:11:16 +1200

The lawyer, David Allen Green, has pointed out that the longer Article 50 isn't invoked – the less likely it will be. Whoever succeeds Cameron will have to do it, and take the consequences of doing it. Boris and Gove hoped Cameron would do it, so they could defer responsibility…

Russell Brown

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:06:37 +1200

But there’s a big flipside to this, which a very smart trade professional talked me through the other day. A good proportion of Fonterra’s current access to EU markets was granted as a continental concession in the 1973 negotiations for the UK’s EEC membership. And this 1973 agreement is one…

Public Address

Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:06:37 +1200

Discussion from blog post.