Public Address | Cafe | Polity: Eleventy billion dollars!

Alfie

Thu, 14 Apr 2016 13:43:47 +1200

There's an interesting UBI story in the Guardian today. It's great to see the subject being discussed intelligently worldwide.

Tom Johnson

Fri, 08 Apr 2016 18:45:11 +1200

The new way of thinking economically is back to basics, stimulus.

Sacha

Fri, 08 Apr 2016 18:34:02 +1200

Yes, well-written and easy to follow. Ta for linking to it.

Howard Edwards

Fri, 08 Apr 2016 12:34:16 +1200

An interesting and well-balanced article by Brian Fallow in today's Business Herald explores the UBI and how it might be introduced in NZ. Fallow is one of the few business journalists around that doesn't seem to have been captured by any particular ideology, is capable of thinking sensibly and doing…

tussock

Tue, 05 Apr 2016 15:55:45 +1200

Hey Tom.

1/ A UBI gives everyone money, that's about it. What adult people do with money, experimentally, is improve their lives in various ways, including health, dentistry, extending their education, and job seeking with improved transport and clothing and so on. Needed stuff that just gets shelved when you…

BenWilson

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 11:11:27 +1200

why is there so little questioning of the sky high cost of living in NZ?

Because that is off-topic, basically. It's a perfectly fair question to ask, but what does it have to do with this discussion? UBI or the currently welfare model with it's 100,000 people getting absolutely nothing…

BenWilson

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 11:04:50 +1200

It seems to me that if the purpose of a UBI is to guarantee a sufficient income for everyone to participate in society in a future where robots have largely replaced people for doing work then $211 a week is nonsense

Yup. But I think it's also a start. Currently,…

Rae Sott

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 10:56:33 +1200

On the war point, I totally agree with you, and I am going to shout as loudly as I can for us to try alternatives as I have no desire to see my grandchildren become cannon fodder. With a will, we could do it, but are we too lazy? Will…

Sacha

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 10:10:37 +1200

Spain, where their economy is buggered.

Ianmac

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 10:03:01 +1200

Tom. Do you live in Denmark or similar? I guess the great place you are living in must have (justly) high taxes. Whereas the thought of raising taxes in NZ terrifies politicians.

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 07:53:14 +1200

heady stuff...
Ten dollars for a cauliflower?
It probably has to come from Australia or South America...
We're putting housing developments over our best growing soils round Chchch. and further down the plains they're selling the water extraction rights until 2046 to some firm to sell it to China
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/78370938/for-sale-40-billion-litres-of-canterburys-purest-water…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 00:23:25 +1200

Oh yes one other thing. We all agree that $211 a week is a hopelessly inadequate amount to live on, but why is there so little questioning of the sky high cost of living in NZ? Food in particular is a compete outlier in NZ. I pay 350 euro a…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 00:05:09 +1200

So now everyone has allowed themselves to be successfully distracted by the ramblings of a dishonest right wing spin doctor who thought it was a lark to try and get Nicky Hagar killed by Chinese gangsters, can I ask a few questions regarding the policy itself?

1/ What is a…

Rob Stowell

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 14:01:27 +1200

Lovely Joe. Made my afternoon :)

Rob Stowell

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 13:58:45 +1200

The auto correct on this phone is savage though sometimes handy. It can make a mess of a perfectly formed sentence. Names it usually mangles. Apologies to Mr Hooten.

Joe Wylie

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 13:12:28 +1200

How we pay for this is important to get right. But all the moaning that we can't, it's impossible, madness!?

__"Surely there never was such fragile china-ware as that of which the millers of Coketown were made. Handle them never so lightly, and they fell to pieces with such ease…

Rob Stowell

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 13:03:24 +1200

How we pay for this is important to get right. But all the moaning that we can't, it's impossible, madness!? We have a population and more or less we already (imperfectly) feed and house it. Once we acknowledge the current system is both unfair an inefficient – and a UBI…

andin

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 10:28:24 +1200

the end of the capitalist banquet,

There's still a few scraps laying about the dining table.
Seems these fuckers have a suction fitting for their orifice.
All the better to hoover up those last scraps

william blake

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 08:51:07 +1200

Oh dear, an $86,000,000,000 bill at the end of the capitalist banquet, make that + GST and don't forget to tip the waiter.

Kumara Republic

Sun, 03 Apr 2016 04:08:42 +1200

CGT and land tax changes could, for instance, tank the property market. You probably wouldn’t want that to happen just when you were piloting your brand new benefit.

Those would be most easily implemented after the property bubble collapses under the weight of its own hubris and avarice. Collateral damage…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 19:38:41 +1300

Yes. trickle fucking down. Market can be corrected from both sides luvvy.

Sacha

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 19:24:14 +1300

You know, accountability

Which the last Labour-led governments failed to deliver. Trickle-down is a huge fraud that *nobody* has apologised for protecting.

Sacha

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 19:21:38 +1300

WFF is probably the most re-jiggable

Consider eliminating that wage subsidy by raising minimum wages over time, in conjunction with govt regulating the private sector to share fruits of productivity gains fairly with workers rather than just owners and investors trousering most of it.

Sacha

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 19:12:58 +1300

John Key was quite specific about the idea when he was in opposition, he wants Auckland to be cleared for a generation of bolthole rich international libertarians.

Forget opposition days. In 'news' last week.

John Key is positioning New Zealand as an Asia-Pacific "Switzerland" – a beautiful and wealthy bolthole for…

Sacha

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 19:10:02 +1300

Wonking Class Hero

#teeworthy

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 18:41:53 +1300

Also to be crudely ruthless economically, they will spend it fast. Dignity in $ terms means increased choices, increased choices means happier citizen, ironically happier citizen through liberty , and more harmony, old concepts of the city. Harmony.

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 18:27:34 +1300

It is a policy which will ignite the economy and the soul of the poorest people who make our nation great , give them dignity.

That’s the most important outcome I see coming from it. And that’s a much bigger group than it might seem. People on absolutely nothing is…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 18:15:46 +1300

One side of the tax equation has won incredible statistically significant gains since 1984 , right wing economics are hard to predict, but so easy to read the results in 2016. 32 years later. Nothing like what was promised by Roger Douglas, a dude I voted for twice.

There needs…

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 18:07:26 +1300

Yes, those new taxes are all possible. I guess my approach, though, and that of others looked to make it a fiscally neutral switch, is to not couple it with too many other changes. Then it isn’t associated permanently with anything that could go wrong with all those changes.

CGT…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 18:06:58 +1300

This policy done right has the potential to take a lot of not really needed cash from the top to a much needed cash boost to the bottom, hey lets have the sixties before 2060. It is a policy which will ignite the economy and the soul of the poorest…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:45:27 +1300

Yeh, money off the bubble, the ultimate metro competition of houses and the new cities they could possibly create , Auckland is having a Walt Whitman period. Who woulda thunk.

Kumara Republic

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:33:43 +1300

Auckland was always supposed to bubble, John Key was quite specific about the idea when he was in opposition, he wants Auckland to be cleared for a generation of bolthole rich international libertarians.

That is how banking is started baby.

Just like today's London, which has basically become a hedge…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:25:32 +1300

It’s basically working for families but to poor fucks who don’t have families or money. Jesus would of loved it. Corrections need to happen at state level due to the failure of profit distribution , now obviously vivid in the bottom sector of a society. Auckland was always supposed to…

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:19:42 +1300

Well wonking is the new black.

Kumara Republic

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:16:06 +1300

That’s obviously unrealistic. Company tax could also be increased, or GST, the two of those generating together about as much revenue as personal income tax

Speculative taxes like CGT, land tax and FTT are other avenues. That is, if Generation Rentier doesn't veto them, and in the case of the…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 17:09:50 +1300

Wonking being new ideas for the new century.
... a Wonking Class hero is something to be!
:- )

Tom Johnson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 16:50:31 +1300

Matthew, how do we raise low end wages after 30 years of stagnation? What do you want to do?

After all wonking is the only way forward. Wonking being new ideas for the new century.

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 16:32:48 +1300

Also, I've considered ONLY personal income tax as the source of ALL the new revenue. That's obviously unrealistic. Company tax could also be increased, or GST, the two of those generating together about as much revenue as personal income tax. If the core tax income of around 65 billion were…

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 15:49:20 +1300

I hope it should be clear from my graph that the red area represents a tremendous improvement in quality of life for the impoverished, and the blue area represents virtually no change for those on high incomes.

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 15:42:34 +1300

Here’s a better pic, done with R. The red area is increased cost, and roughly corresponds to all the people who would benefit by being dragged out of the worst kind of poverty. The blue area is increased revenue. I made it exactly the same size just by working out…

Sacha

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 15:35:18 +1300

Here's the bit from the discussion paper which frames up the "preferred option'

Thank you. Why are you the first person I've heard that from? Couldn't that have been in one of their media releases or something?

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 14:48:13 +1300

Some interesting stuff. Obviously it's a lot of work to detail a model, and there is no limit on the number of possible models.

Hence the discussion really needs to specify objectives at the outset. I'm kind of trying to do that with my graph above, to show what the…

Ianmac

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 14:43:03 +1300

Lockwood Smith Tax and Social Welfare is about 3/4 down his valedectory speech starting @:
Not many would know that I put 7 years’ work into a project to redevelop New Zealand’s income tax, benefit, and tax credit systems. The work started on trying to find a way round the…

andin

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 14:37:44 +1300

how a conversation would progress.

Well Im guessing they somehow knew (funny that) there would be a flurry of attack mutts, first up, screaming
“MONEY!” “WHO"S GOING TO PAY?”
Then after that, who knows :-))

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 14:08:21 +1300

At the last minute it was pulled, for fear it might be seen as official National Party policy, and it was not. Seven years’ work and, even if I do say so myself, some pretty good ideas that could have perhaps gained me another PhD had it been done in…

Keir Leslie

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 13:34:38 +1300

Also, I don't see why you'd need a "controlled experiment" – that's obviously impossible. A pilot – to see if there's any horrendous downsides, or problems to fix – is a different matter.

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 13:32:36 +1300

By ‘thought it through’, I mean even in the sense of thinking how a conversation would progress.

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 13:30:59 +1300

See http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/pb/debates/debates/50HansD_20130213_00000032/valedictory-statements

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 13:28:41 +1300

Sticks and stones...
It seems to me Labour hasn’t thought any of this through properly, but other people have, for many years – and that Labour has just gone on gooey eyed at the leftie celebrity economist they brought out to their conference.
They never said they had 'thought it…

Deborah

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 13:24:23 +1300

NZ Treasury paper on guaranteed minimum income, prepared for the Welfare Working Group in 2010.

(edited to remove a double link)

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:58:31 +1300

@Matthew Hooton

It's good to hear you support a UBI on principle. I don't really agree, however, that engaging with the debate the way you did is helpful, if this principle is genuine. It looks and sounds like you want to kill the idea stone dead, when you make wild…

Hilary Stace

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:44:18 +1300

There is a trial in India financed by Unicef. Only those there at the beginning get the UBI. If you move into the area you don't. There are other trials in other countries. He says trials are the way to start.

It is apparently all in Guy Standing's latest book…

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:42:37 +1300

Nationalization is a possibility, but I think another possible model that achieves much the same end is for all people to eventually be the shareholders in the massive corporations of the world. A pathway to achieving this could be compulsory investment. Compulsory super schemes, in other words.

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:34:31 +1300

It is clear, well to me it is, that there will be many, many fewer taxpayers on which to call to pay a UBI, so elsewhere will have to be looked for the source of it.

It’s certainly a problem, and in the very long run, this will be the…

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:22:59 +1300

Another shortcoming of my picture is that it is only on individuals. Companies aren't in there. Obviously I don't think companies should be getting the UBI. Quite the opposite, they should be doing a lot of the paying for it.

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:16:03 +1300

I'll do this on a computer sometime soon. It is a little difficult to make it look good, though, because the actual shape of the income distribution is so hockey-stick like that the y-axis becomes grossly enlarged, and you can barely see the UBI. The top bracket being the 250k…

BenWilson

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 12:05:27 +1300

Rough outline of 2 scenarios, graphical. The second one is obviously the extreme case. The first one is what I understand the idea of the UBI to be. The devil is in the detail of how to get it to work like that.

Also, note I only put Income on…

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 11:20:10 +1300

None of those are controlled experiments and, as discussed in my response to Keir, I don't see why one would be needed anyway. A UBI is self evidently better than the status quo, if that maths can work, if it solves the EMTR issue.

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 11:15:51 +1300

At $11,000 gross with no lower youth payment, the gross cost is $11,000 x 3,543,600= $38,979,600,000 in the first year. But the savings are nothing remotely like $25,o0o,000,000. And, under such a policy, there is still the EMTR problem (in fact the income tax system would become more complicated), there…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 10:59:01 +1300

the fecal finger of fate…. or stool life portraits?
Speaking of job losses to technology – I see a gap in the market for some crossover between Syft technologies and modern ‘high end’ Japanese toilets
see: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160331-why-we-need-a-better-way-to-measure-farts
Everyone could have a diagnostic toilet – there would be an app of…

Alfie

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 10:58:54 +1300

Which are the countries such a controlled experiment is happening?

I mentioned a few (with links) in the earlier thread. The Netherlands is conducting small scale trials, Finland is taking the issue seriously and will be trialling a system in 2017-18. Switzerland is due to have a referendum on UBI…

Keir Leslie

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 10:47:33 +1300

Here's the bit from the discussion paper which frames up the "preferred option':
An alternative proposal would be to retain New Zealand’s progressive income tax system and GST; abolish existing welfare transfers but allow for supplementary transfers for disadvantaged groups; and pay a UBI of $11,000 to all adults over…

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:45:29 +1300

I mean "universal" within a geographic area. A payment made to, say, only the 25-65 age bracket, that is not enough to live on, and is part of a system that then provides for higher benefits for people who are unemployed is not a UBI as most people understand it.…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:36:00 +1300

Your ‘Rise of the Machines’ nightmare app needs a critical update. Get with the 21st Century, Grandad!
I fixed your bad link, you 21st century whippersnapper, you!
;- )

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:34:46 +1300

So start small, universal and pilot through a randomised control trial (eg in two similar towns one with UBI and one without), and then develop incrementally. Why not in NZ? They are doing it in other countries.

Which are the countries such a controlled experiment is happening? How can such…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:33:18 +1300

Then it is not universal
Hell, it may not even extend beyond New Zealand's borders...

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:32:59 +1300

If that is what is proposed then I am absolutely right that what it proposed is not a UBI but just the use of that term as political cover to increase handouts to some people and taxes on others, including on their homes. What you suggest would do nothing to…

Hilary Stace

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:25:36 +1300

It can be universal – for every adult and child – but could start at a small amount and develop incrementally. There could be a top up for need (eg for current beneficiaries), but that would be on need, not means tested. Financed by taxes on capital, like the death…

Rae Sott

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:18:12 +1300

What we have at the moment is really just ideas, NOTHING is in concrete yet, and neither should it be, we do not even know for sure, yet, how deep joblessness will go, but if today is anything to go by, it is fair to believe that it will go…

Rae Sott

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 09:16:08 +1300

Thank you for that, but now I know you are reading people's comments, so maybe it is not a step too far for you to begin to engage in this conversation as less of a Labour Party and Rob Salmond beat up and more a discussion on how we meet…

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 08:27:38 +1300

doesn't quite work like that I believe

Really? Then it is not universal. I could imagine it could be from, say, age 25 until retirement, and you would leave youth benefits and National Superannuation in place. That would reduce the gross cost to around $40 billion – but it would…

andin

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 08:18:49 +1300

But far be it for me to give Labour political advice.
Doesnt seem to stop you, that inner voice that says no.
And here I was kidding myself you were one of the more enlightened right commentators.
(ii) everyone gets it from aged 18 until they die;
doesnt quite work…

Rich Lock

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 08:16:22 +1300

They can already beat Garry Kasparov at chess

Your 'Rise of the Machines' nightmare app needs a critical update. Get with the 21st Century, Grandad!

Matthew Hooton

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 08:04:06 +1300

But plainly it has been made clear which of your assumptions are not the assumptions Labour are making:

Where? When? Which one?

Kumara Republic

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 01:52:01 +1300

How long will it be before computers become smart enough to deliver public relations advice? They can already beat Garry Kasparov at chess and human competitors at Jeopardy.

Rae Sott defined what could be the next PA Word of the year: "guillotine insurance". And if David Cameron grows a pair…

Keir Leslie

Sat, 02 Apr 2016 00:17:39 +1300

In reply: (1) Just to confirm everyone's stereotypes, the Economics Department at Canterbury does indeed buy a subscription to the National Business Review.

(5) you might say that.

(6) But plainly it has been made clear which of your assumptions are not the assumptions Labour are making: wouldn't it make…

Matthew Hooton

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 20:09:05 +1300

See as mentioned above:

"higher ... company taxes, new taxes on carbon and capital gains, and a tougher IRD."

Rae Sott

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 19:58:23 +1300

And, you could possibly look at a UBI (as someone else said) as guillotine insurance

Rae Sott

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 19:55:47 +1300

I strongly suggest you start thinking beyond personal taxation as a means of providing for a UBI; The idea of one is to provide in a JOBLESS or close to, future. I would have thought even you could have deduced that without jobs there is little personal taxation. Think on…

Matthew Hooton

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 19:48:51 +1300

Just a few brief(ish) points.

1) For those with a subscription or working for someone who has one (and I think students at some universities), the actual column is here: http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/ubi-just-cynical-ploy-increase-welfare-and-tax-mh

2) The column makes clear at the outset this is an idea not policy. The word policy appears only…

Rae Sott

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 18:27:11 +1300

Yup and being aware of this corporations have attempted to secure their places with things like TPPA because that is what that thing is about. When you stand back a bit and look at it all, you can see how it all fits neatly together

Sacha

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 17:58:57 +1300

Taxation needs to switch away from workers, yes. Hence the howls of outrage from those who represent the interests of capital.

Marc C

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 17:57:44 +1300

I am astonished that some may take Mathew Hooton for serious, he is the greatest spin master and truth twister we have in New Zealand. Any serious UBI would also be linked to tax income and taxable income, e.g. serve as a tax free basic income.

So that means nothing…

Rae Sott

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 17:01:47 +1300

Just wondering if anyone else has spotted the blindingly obvious where a UBI is concerned. The talk of this has arisen as we see we are most likely heading toward a pretty much jobless future. Here is where the blindingly obvious bit comes in. It is clear, well to me…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 17:01:46 +1300

Unless we stop Hooton now the errorists will win!

BenWilson

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:37:45 +1300

For people who earn more than nothing but less than the UBI, it would seem to me fairly clear that the aim is for them to earn no less than the UBI.

Beyond that, it's murkier. It's my opinion that actually, no one who has any kind of self-made-income should…

Sacha

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:33:39 +1300

The righties do have an admirably coherent attack line on this – 'too expensive'. Wonder how that happened? And who could possibly have forseen it?

Instead, the left have spent all week talking about costs.

BenWilson

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:19:28 +1300

FWIW, I don't think it's a terrible own goal for Labour to open this dialog, rather than just announce in massive detail some UBI that pleases no one. At the very least, it's a clear signal that they're open to the idea of this change, and genuinely want to know…

BenWilson

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:07:36 +1300

I'm guessing this discussion will morph into how it's all Labour's fault because they didn't provide a detailed policy, therefore the only sane thing the Government can do is wildly speculate and make up their own numbers. Rather than just ask for them, or decline to comment.

Public Address

Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:07:36 +1300

Discussion from blog post.