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		<title>Public Address | Cafe | Pennsylvania, at last</title>
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		<description><![CDATA[A talking shop where we put the questions and our community illuminates the issues.]]></description>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48580#post48580</link>
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						<p>That National Journal article looks like a fair description of the state of play at present.</p><p>Such a close race really does highlight the faults of the Dem selection process. Maybe they would be better off just having the supers make the decision. It's great so many people get to…</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 25 Apr 2008 11:25:46 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Stephen Judd</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48579#post48579</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48579#post48579</guid>
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						<p><a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080426_9889.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Charlie Cook on winning battles, losing wars</a>.</p><p>(via the very partisan but agreeable-to-me <a href="http://www.americablog.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AMERICAblog</a>).</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 25 Apr 2008 10:30:23 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48512#post48512</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48512#post48512</guid>
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						<blockquote><p>...but it would be a delicious irony if the woman who coined the phrase 'vast right wing conspiracy' ended up becoming it's new best bud.</p></blockquote><p>and maybe that's what those dastardly Reps want you to think. (joke &ndash; but if they're gaming this then why stop at the first move?)…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:54:49 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48505#post48505</link>
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						<blockquote>I'm going way out on a limb here but if Obama and Clinton can end this amicably (which will no doubt be with Obama as candidate) then the Hillary organisation may very well be able to keep the blue collar vote in the fold &ndash; which might not have happened…</blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:25:16 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48484#post48484</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48484#post48484</guid>
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						<blockquote><p>Do you really think that any Super Delegate should consider being swayed by the idea that 40%+ of democrats in Michigan voting against Clinton really means that Obama has 0.0% support there?</p></blockquote><p>I agree Michigan is much less of an argument than Florida.</p><blockquote><p>Here's another reality check...</p></blockquote><p>Well it all…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:26:57 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48478#post48478</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48478#post48478</guid>
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						<blockquote><p>And my reply &ndash; WILL DISAPPOINTED DEMS VOTE FOR MCCAIN?</p></blockquote><p>Perhaps &mdash; just as we might see Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh put up and hit the campaign trail for Clinton if she wins the nomination, as opposed to that skeezy RINO anti-Christ McCain.  Who knows?</p><p>Here's another reality check,…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:01:05 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Tim Hannah</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48477#post48477</link>
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						<blockquote><p>But that's not the argument &ndash; at this moment (unlikely to last past the next primary) it's Clinton who has got more Dems out to vote for her. That's not something any super can disregard.</p></blockquote><p>That's only the case if you include not only Florida but also Michigan where, get…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:00:27 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48468#post48468</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48468#post48468</guid>
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						<blockquote><p>So if you overturn the rules, ignore the delegate count, and count votes from two banned primaries where Obama didn't even campaign, the supers could declare Hillary the winner? That'll go down well ...</p></blockquote><p>It's not a matter of overturning rules &ndash; the states invloved have the right to appeal…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:32:18 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48447#post48447</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Because, to be blunt, she's the only one who benefits from it. And she doesn't have to 'ask' the N.C. GOP to do a damn thing, just issue a statement along the lines of "We don't need your Rove-ian bullshit in our primaries, thanks."</p></blockquote><p>At which point I'd presume the…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 10:14:31 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48444#post48444</link>
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						<blockquote><p>I'm not sure why Clinton should have to ask the Republican Party to not run a particular advert.</p></blockquote><p>Because, to be blunt, she's the only one who benefits from it.  And she doesn't have to 'ask' the N.C. GOP to do a damn thing, just issue a statement along the…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 10:07:21 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Cormack</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48440#post48440</link>
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						<p>I said it right from the beginning, I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton got the nom &ndash; somehow.</p><p>Why would she be sticking around if she didn't geniunely believe she could get it? </p><p>Having said that, Ralph Nader may end up with a much higher vote count if she does…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:58:43 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48436#post48436</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Has Senator Clinton done the same? And will the N.C. GOP take a blind bit of difference, or is race-baiting too useful a fundraising tactic.</p></blockquote><p>I'm not sure why Clinton should have to ask the Republican Party to not run a particular advert. In fact, it would just seem bizarre…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:37:21 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Russell Brown</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48424#post48424</link>
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						<blockquote><p>That's what I mean about it all depends on how the maths is done. If Florida and Michigan are included then she's got the lead (not likely to last long). Real Clear have it under Popular Vote (w/FL &amp; MI).</p><p>That's not an uncontoversial way of looking at the votes as…</p></blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 08:43:34 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48423#post48423</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Neil, you have only just discovered "Craig's rule of equivalence"?</p></blockquote><p>Yes, Don, I do have a law of equivalence for the campaign trail: Nobody gets to be a douche bag, and everyone is responsible for enforcing some basic standards.  Race-baiting or sexism isn't part of a robust campaign, and I've…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 08:16:38 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48422#post48422</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Has Obama stopped beating his wife? Honestly Craig I've tried to keep my comments snark free and am tired of your line of argument by innuendo. I find it unpleasant.</p></blockquote><p>Neil:</p><p>Oh, <em>diddums</em>.  I'd ask the same question of Obama if the N.C. GOP was outed as planning to run…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 08:08:44 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Don Christie</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48421#post48421</link>
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						<blockquote><p>I've seen a few more pieces putting forward the argument that the drawn out campain is beneficial -</p></blockquote><p>I agree. They are getting media attention for their positive aspects as well as their negative ones. The campaign is robust and sometimes petty but in general that debates and speeches I…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 08:07:39 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48420#post48420</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Has Senator Clinton done the same?</p></blockquote><p>Has Obama stopped beating his wife? Honestly Craig I've tried to keep my comments snark free and am tired of your line of argument by innuendo. I find it unpleasant.</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:52:53 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48419#post48419</link>
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						<p>Meanwhile, it looks like John McCain is tilling the South Carolina GOP <a href="url">to pull their heads in and not run a gross anti-Obama ad ahead of the N.C. primary</a>:</p><blockquote><p>In an attempt to lay down a marker on racially-motivated tactics, McCain's campaign sends word that the candidate himself sent a…</p></blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:22:33 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48418#post48418</link>
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						<blockquote><p>I've seen a few more pieces putting forward the argument that the drawn out campain is beneficial -</p></blockquote><p>Perhaps, Neil.  But I fail to see the benefit for anyone if Obama wins the nomination, and McCain's spin things have a PVR full of tasty Clinton quotes to fill their attack…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:57:10 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48396#post48396</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48396#post48396</guid>
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						<blockquote><p>...where are these "more votes"?</p></blockquote><p>That's what I mean about it all depends on how the maths is done. If Florida and Michigan are included then she's got the lead (not likely to last long). Real Clear have it under <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Popular Vote (w/FL &amp; MI)</a>.</p><p>That's not an uncontoversial way of…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:45:39 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Don Christie</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48394#post48394</link>
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						<p>Neil, where are these "more votes"?</p><p>NYT <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/us/politics/23penn.html?_r=1&amp;hp&amp;oref=slogin" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">says</a> "she still trails Mr. Obama in the popular vote and the delegate count".</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:28:15 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48393#post48393</link>
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						<blockquote><p>The maths relates to the delegates...</p></blockquote><p>yes, but as you go on to say there's still the undecided superdelegates and the popular vote could influence them. So the maths is still open.</p><p>And in terms of the legitimacy of her continuing the campaign the fact that she has more votes…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:56:37 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48392#post48392</link>
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						<blockquote><p>depends a bit on how the maths is done and how that's interpreted.</p><p>As of this moment Clinton ahead in the popular vote</p></blockquote><p>Well, given that delegates choose the candidate, not the popular vote, you're using some strange maths there. The maths relates to the delegates, and the only ones…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:19:18 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48385#post48385</link>
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						<blockquote><p>...but I don't think the maths has changed.</p></blockquote><p>depends a bit on how the maths is done and how that's interpreted.</p><p>As of this moment Clinton <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ahead in the popular vote</a> when it comes to the total of Democrat voters that have turned out to vote (that's including the votes…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:35:00 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>andrew llewellyn</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48379#post48379</link>
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						<blockquote><p>stay in the race until some Aryan Nation member blows</p></blockquote><p>Does Mrs Obama get to stand in his place?</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:52:51 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Danyl Mclauchlan</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48376#post48376</link>
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						<p><em>Enough for her and her to supporters to justify keeping on, but I don't think the maths has changed.</em></p><p>I think her campaign strategy is to stay in the race until some Aryan Nation member blows Obama's head off.</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:37:40 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48374#post48374</link>
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						<p>CNN currently has a 6% gap, which if it holds will mean she'll get... 9 delegates closer? 10?</p><p>Enough for her and her to supporters to justify keeping on, but I don't think the maths has changed.</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:29:53 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>George  Darroch</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48372#post48372</link>
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						<p>I'm following the NY Times reporting &ndash; <br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">front page</a> and<br /><a href="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/live-blogging-the-pa-primary/index.html?hp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">and liveblog</a>.</p><p>Until Montgomery County reports (after 10pm ET), any call is premature. But the networks like to call things early...</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:26:15 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Neil Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48370#post48370</link>
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						<p>Anything over 50%. Voter registation and turn out in PA is at record levels &ndash; 300,000 new registrations since the beginning of the year. The last time PA had any say in the nomination process was back when Carter was running. </p><p>Info on those new registrations goes into a -…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:20:19 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Danyl Mclauchlan</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48367#post48367</link>
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						At this state it looks like she'll win by about 8%, stay in the race and leave the nomination in limbo for another couple of months.
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:16:40 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Russell Brown</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/pennsylvania-at-last/?p=48364#post48364</link>
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						The endless Democratic primary race finally has another round. Hillary Clinton is expected to win &mdash; but how well does she have to win to stay in the race? Post your links, updates and comments here.
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				<pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:03:58 +1200</pubDate>
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