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		<title>Public Address | Cafe | OnPoint: The Master Plan</title>
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		<description><![CDATA[A talking shop where we put the questions and our community illuminates the issues.]]></description>
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				<title>Rob Hosking</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41537#post41537</link>
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						<blockquote><p>But easing up from 0-2 (and getting rid of Brash) came at a moment when commodity prices took off- and there was plenty of (relatively) cheap credit to be had.</p></blockquote><p>Coupla things:</p><p>0-2% got eased to 0-3% in early 1997.  One of Winston Peters' gifts to a grateful nation. Cullen…</p>
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				<pubDate>Sun, 10 Feb 2008 14:47:15 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Stowell</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41528#post41528</link>
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						True, it took a while! Brash wasn't keen on the change of target, but that wasn't exactly the full story. He did resign. Maybe 'got rid of' is wrong, but hm, I don't think it's <em>completely</em> wrong!
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				<pubDate>Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:26:09 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Graeme Edgeler</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41527#post41527</link>
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						<blockquote><p>got rid of Dr Brash &ndash; whose tenure in control of the RB was not marked by rapid growth</p></blockquote><p>I think you mean re-appointed Dr Brash, who later resigned.</p>
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				<pubDate>Sun, 10 Feb 2008 08:43:25 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Stowell</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41526#post41526</link>
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						<p>You've said that Cullen/Labour have stuck with the RBA, but I think rather crucially, they eased the Bank's target from 0-2 to 1-3% and got rid of Dr Brash- whose tenure in control of the RB was <em>not</em> marked by rapid growth. <br />I've talked to a few business people who…</p>
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				<pubDate>Sat, 09 Feb 2008 23:08:37 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Hosking</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41523#post41523</link>
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						<blockquote><p>The idea that the ´reforms`of the 80s and 90s´explain our current economic performance, but that Cullen´s policies have nothing to do with it, is, IMO, kinda flawed</p></blockquote><p>Not quite what I said. I did say the reforms had to be given quite a bit of credit for it, and I'll…</p>
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				<pubDate>Sat, 09 Feb 2008 16:26:19 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41519#post41519</link>
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						<blockquote><p>improving education, electrical and telecommunications infrastructure and Aucklandtown</p></blockquote><p>I was with you, right until the end, and then you lost me.</p>
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				<pubDate>Sat, 09 Feb 2008 13:38:52 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>WH</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41506#post41506</link>
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						<blockquote> the biggest single reason for the govt's fiscal 'surprises on the upside' is the economy is performing better than anyone &ndash; not just Treasury but private sector economists &ndash; expected... As for why that is, quite a bit of credit has to be given to the reforms of the 80s…</blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Sat, 09 Feb 2008 06:47:33 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Hosking</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41415#post41415</link>
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						<p>A lot of points I could address: I'll confine myself to a few:</p><p>1. A boost of some sort &ndash; either extra spending or tax cuts &ndash; <strong>has already been budgeted for.</strong> Cullen set aside an extra $3 billion unallocated spending for the next financial year (roughly $1.2 billion of…</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 08 Feb 2008 11:00:50 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>WH</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=41407#post41407</link>
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						<p><a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&amp;objectid=10491097" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&amp;objectid=10491097</a></p><p>Cullen´s speech touched on many of the points you raised.</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 08 Feb 2008 07:11:53 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Christopher Worthington</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40417#post40417</link>
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						<p>Firstly, I agree that Cullen initially targeted higher surpluses in order to implement the Cullen fund, and it is probably fair to say that the Cullen fund is a policy decision that is hard to envisage under alternative finance ministers.   </p><p>Using the surpluses as a measure of fiscal conservatism tends…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 17:10:38 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>WH</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40410#post40410</link>
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						<blockquote><p>The idea that he has been running surpluses for seven years in anticipation of a looming economic crisis is nonsensical.</p><p>Fiscal policy under Cullen has had two distinct periods. In the early years, the government was making a concerted effort to increase the surpluses in order to implement the New…</p></blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 16:55:59 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Keith Ng</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40369#post40369</link>
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						<p>Yikes &ndash; hefty contribution there, Christopher. You make excellent points.</p><p>About the surpluses, yes, they are partly a result of Treasury's underestimation of revenue, but the government was budgeting for a surplus anyway &ndash; the accident of history just added to the scope.</p><p>And yes, they're partly a result of…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 14:46:56 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Paul Campbell</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40293#post40293</link>
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						PS: (I'll be equally impressed if the Nats do the same thing)
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				<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 10:29:40 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Paul Campbell</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40273#post40273</link>
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						I've been really impressed by Cullen's non-spending, save for a rainy day economic plan &ndash; it's what we all ought to be doing in our private economic life, save and pay down debt when things are doing well, borrow some to tide you over when things are tough &ndash; the…
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				<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 09:06:18 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Christopher Worthington</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40220#post40220</link>
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						<p>Keith I can’t see what basis you could have for concluding that the Cullen has a “master plan” for discretionary fiscal policy.  The idea that he has been running surpluses for seven years in anticipation of a looming economic crisis is nonsensical.</p><p>Fiscal policy under Cullen has had two distinct…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 16:18:09 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Don Christie</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40206#post40206</link>
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						Terence &ndash; yes, inflation rates. Sorry.
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 14:59:27 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Rich of Observationz</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40202#post40202</link>
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						<p>Sounds pretty bogus to me &ndash; I don't think it's actually possible to control inflation to a 3-6% range without running the risk of it spiralling to double figures before you know it.</p><p>But National's core constituency (new Holden V8, beach house, speedboat, mortgaged to the eyeballs) would *welcome* inflation…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 14:00:40 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Terence Wood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40197#post40197</link>
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						<p>Don I take it you mean core inflation not 'core interest rates'?</p><p>There's actually an interesting debate to be had about just how harmful moderate levels of inflation are, but I think the problem with the argument you cite is that international competitiveness is unlikely to be the most important…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 13:26:27 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Don Christie</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40186#post40186</link>
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						<p>There is an article in today's BusinessDay (not yet online AFAICT) arguing that core interest rates are running at 1.9% which is not all that high. <strong>My</strong> understaning of the argument is as follows.</p><p>This figure excludes fuel and food. The argument for focusing on core rates is that we…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 12:26:14 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>John Morrison</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40183#post40183</link>
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						Craig: By God, I enjoy your writing even though I have been on the end of a couple of your barbs. Don't agree with your politics but hey..I still enjoy reading your colourful prose. As for Bill, I cannot say I enjoy any column he writes. I just get the…
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 12:13:38 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40175#post40175</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Giggle. But yes. Ralston can write well, but seems to be a disaster around anything that touches on economics.</p></blockquote><p>Meh... I don't know if Bill Ralston and churning out two columns a week is a happy marriage, full stop.  (And that's not meant as a snide bitch at Ralston --…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:34:46 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Idiot Savant</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40174#post40174</link>
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						<blockquote>This part of the coming election is becoming clear now. There will be a spending spree, and there will be a lot of effort to portray the spending spree next year as, oh, I don't know, "the last ditch attempt by a tired, directionless government desperately trying to hang on…</blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:31:28 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Kyle Matthews</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40171#post40171</link>
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						<blockquote><p>Now, finally, everyone can STFU about the goddamn surplus</p></blockquote><p>Heh. Good luck with that one Keith. I'm betting "no".</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:23:38 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Deborah</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40169#post40169</link>
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						<p>Nice analysis, Keith.  </p><p>Craig, you're going to have to fight me off first for that dinner with Viggo.</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 11:05:47 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Russell Brown</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40165#post40165</link>
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						<blockquote><p>WH is right Keith: public discourse on economics would be far better served if you wrote for the Herald and Bill Ralston was confined to commenting on Deborah Coddington's blog...</p></blockquote><p>Giggle. But yes. Ralston <em>can</em> write well, but seems to be a disaster around anything that touches on economics. As…</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 10:55:20 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Terence Wood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40164#post40164</link>
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						<p><em>Ralstonomics 101:</em></p><p><em>To fight inflation we must cut taxes and lower interest rates.</em></p><p>WH is right Keith: public discourse on economics would be far better served if you wrote for the Herald and Bill Ralston was confined to commenting on Deborah Coddington's blog...</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 10:33:34 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>WH</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40163#post40163</link>
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						Great piece Keith.  You should be writing for the Herald instead of Ralston.
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 10:28:49 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Craig Ranapia</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40162#post40162</link>
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						<blockquote>This part of the coming election is becoming clear now. There will be a spending spree, and there will be a lot of effort to portray the spending spree next year as, oh, I don't know, "the last ditch attempt by a tired, directionless government desperately trying to hang on…</blockquote>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 09:29:27 +1300</pubDate>
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				<title>Public Address</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/onpoint-the-master-plan/?p=40161#post40161</link>
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						<p>Discussion from blog post.</p>
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				<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 09:29:26 +1300</pubDate>
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