Public Address | Cafe | OnPoint: Quickfisk: Youth Unemployment

B BOY DRAW2

Wed, 18 Sep 2013 09:01:35 +1200

Hey Keith, I'm pretty late to this...and your blog...but after browsing the page, and scrolling down to see what you've been writing...I settled here just because it was the last article that my phone would show me, without clicking the "older posts" button.

Just wanted to add a little unseen…

Felix_felix

Tue, 02 Jul 2013 14:46:02 +1200

Hi Kieth, late to this but I'll second Ieuan Wickham, IMHO no one in govt is covered in glory here. Sure youth unemployment isnt' at the level of Greece or Spain, but did get kicked by the GFC and has yet to recover.

NEET data only goes to 2011

StatNZ's…

Ieuan Wickham

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 22:20:03 +1200

Keith, under no circumstances should you eat your hat. As you point out, the data clearly show that the youth unemployment rate bounces up and down within a range, but the long term trend for the last 9 quarters (at least) is basically flat.

I don't think it's reasonable for…

Andrew R2

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 20:47:53 +1200

None of this shows that the 90 day employment rule is working though.

Che Tibby

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 15:17:25 +1200

Yes, NEET is important, but it's a sign of much wider disengagement, rather than a predominantly labour market issue. Also, NEET data only goes to 2011. (Not really sure why – it's just derived from the HLFS...)

i think the literature is split on that. it's a labour market issue…

Keith Ng

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 13:39:21 +1200

Also, I think this is why I did the graph. Here I am faffing about whether the Q1 dip is real, or whether it's a bloody artefact of the seasonal adjustment techniques caused by the the Q4 spikes, when really, none of this is consequential.

The graph shows, clear as…

Keith Ng

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 13:34:45 +1200

These must also be HORRIBlE RIGHTWING LIES from Statistics New Zealand and the OECD.

Jokes! Just being facetious. For the record, I'm actually pro youth rates, and on the fence about 90-days in principle, but just see no evidence it's working.

Look at unemployment rates by age and gender and…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 11:37:37 +1200

And the stats on under-employment and the working poor have traditionally been met with the response, "insufficient data". Even a generation ago, such concepts would have been inconceivable.

Rob Hosking

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 11:24:42 +1200

Excuse my ignorance, but I’m not sure what NEET figures add here. As far as I can tell (and the very different rates for males and females Matthew cites gives a hint of it), it includes young full-time parents as well as those out of paid work or training for…

Matthew Hooton

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:59:06 +1200

So? Most 15-18 year olds and beyond are in school or tertiary education. We are talking unemployment. Look down the page. Go to unemployment rates by age and gender.

Matthew Hooton

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:51:35 +1200

I have quoted both. Keith Ng and Clint Smith criticised me on Twitter for using NEET instead of unemployment whereas Che Tibby and Jean Hughes think NEET is more meaningful than unemployment. Whichever is the better measure, both are heading in the right direction.

Andrew C

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:50:19 +1200

Look at unemployment rates by age and gender

I exported the employment rate on the link you posted:

Employment rate, Aged 15-24, All persons
Q2-2010 50%
Q3-2010 50%
Q4-2010 50%
Q1-2011 50%
Q2-2011 50%
Q3-2011 50%
Q4-2011 49%
Q1-2012 50%
Q2-2012 51%
Q3-2012 50%
Q4-2012 47%
Q1-2013 50%

Andrew C

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:41:17 +1200

@Keith: I am probably an idiot here – but why is the unemployment data rate in your chart not look like 100% – ?

B Jones

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:35:29 +1200

Excuse my ignorance, but I'm not sure what NEET figures add here. As far as I can tell (and the very different rates for males and females Matthew cites gives a hint of it), it includes young full-time parents as well as those out of paid work or training for…

Rob Hosking

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:03:29 +1200

Haven't heard of that one...and I'd imagine it'd be quite difficult to collate that sort of comparison, partly because of the many and varied ownership structures, partly because even if you got it its the sort of aggregate figure which would hide a lot of complexities.

You have though piqued…

Matthew Hooton

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 07:33:29 +1200

Go to http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=STLABOUR

Look at unemployment rates by age and gender and look at the 15-24 age group, all persons. At 15.1% in Q1 2013, we’re now below the OECD average and falling.

Go also to http://m.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/HouseholdLabourForceSurvey/HOTPMar13qtr/HouseholdLabourForceSurveyMar13qtrHOTP.pdf

See in particular:

Youth labour market improves

In the year to March 2013,…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 00:05:18 +1200

I should also add that in the Gaynor piece, while our youth unemployment rates are nothing to be proud of, those in the PIIGS nations appear to have eclipsed those of the Great Depression.

Kumara Republic

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 23:30:50 +1200

It seems to illustrate the 2-speed economy that we – and Australia – are in now. All well and good if you have a specialist degree in an area known to have shortages of know-how, but the low-skilled and first-timers aren't quite so lucky. And long-term job growth can't be…

Keith Ng

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 23:23:08 +1200

a reducing ratio may be (relatively) good for young adults, but it is bad for older adults.

Yeah – that's a particularly odd measure. It's definitely useful for distinguishing between youth-specific unemployment problems and general unemployment problems, but it definitely needs a lot of context or it's misleading.

You're right…

Keith Ng

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 23:18:35 +1200

He was claiming (while attacking Helen Kelly) that the 90 day trial law had significantly cut the youth unemployment rate.

Oh. That's easy then. That's fucking bullshit.

Wish I hadn't bothered making all them graphs now.

Keith Ng

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 23:16:26 +1200

Che/Rob: Yes, NEET is important, but it's a sign of much wider disengagement, rather than a predominantly labour market issue. Also, NEET data only goes to 2011. (Not really sure why – it's just derived from the HLFS...)

Rob: Deeply uncomfortable with the focus on OECD rankings/comparisons. True, we're not…

Sacha

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 22:44:55 +1200

productivity

Any links/data about share of business productivity gains that was paid to workers compared with business owners over last decade or three? I remember reading it's not pretty but don't recall where the source was. Might be OECD or something?

Brent Jackson

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 22:43:42 +1200

Nice fisk.

I find graphs like that (not your one) particularly annoying, in that they appear to be deliberately misleading. The graph on the left, a reduction is bad (though it takes a while to work that out becuase the graphs have similar shapes), and the graph on the right…

John Holley

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 22:33:29 +1200

It was on National Radio this morning.

He was claiming (while attacking Helen Kelly) that the 90 day trial law had significantly cut the youth unemployment rate.

Based on the ratios etc., I guess it shows that the 90 day trial law has increased unemployment among adults as employers seem…

Rob Hosking

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 21:51:51 +1200

I think the origin of the argument was something Hooten had said on radio which I didn't hear, but was something about NZ's youth unemployment being comparatively good.

Its not as good as it was, but the OECD report released last week says that long term youth unemployment is among…

Jean Hughes

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 20:01:43 +1200

Agreed – and all the more alarming for the futures of us all.

Che Tibby

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 19:19:05 +1200

so why no mention of the NEET rate? surely it's an important measure to include in any analysis for this age group?

Public Address

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 19:19:05 +1200

Discussion from blog post.