If the rest of the world does 40%, we'll do 20%. And we won't actually do 20%, we'll just buy credits to pollute.

Yes, we have to…

You also have to love this line:

The target range of 10-20% reduction from 1990 levels is comparable to Australia’s taking into account conditionality, different base years, our lower…

I also find it odd Lyndon that we make one of our conditions a focus on limiting temp growth to 2degrees, but that requires 25-40% reductions…

Is it just me, or if we're going to make our target conditional on international agreement on other targets, shouldn't our targets be of a level that might achieve their targets?

I've written…

Outsourcing of industrial production from highcost to lowcost economies is an observable phenomenon, not a theory.

And like most theories, it doesn't work 100% in the real world.

We would gain incentive to demonstrably improve our carbon efficiency, because we will be losing market share based on how polluting our industries are. It is the sort of thing the world should be doing more of.

Try telling that to Federated Farmers. If they felt the full force of…

But the same thing could be said for your "if we make it expensive here it will go elsewhere so ETS will increase emissions" theory. There's a lot of ifs in that line of reasoning.

Outsourcing of industrial production from highcost to lowcost economies is an observable phenomenon,…

What's NZ to do if it was on the receiving end of the above?

We would gain incentive to demonstrably improve our carbon efficiency, because we will be losing market share based on how polluting our industries are. It is the sort of thing the world should be doing more…

Yes, if it happens you are correct, but that is a very big if.

OK I was just poking fun at you.

But the same thing could be said for your "if we make it expensive here it will go elsewhere so ETS will increase emissions" theory. There's a lot…

Yeah, they are going to bring in a carbon tax.

What's NZ to do if it was on the receiving end of the above?

The Chinese are not likely to sign up.

And apparently it's within WTO rules to do this.

gung-ho

Ooh, ooh, I learned this one at the pub a couple of weeks ago. It came from Chinese cooperatives – Work Together-Work in Harmony.

And Rewi Alley helped transfer the phrase during WW2 to the US of A where they subsequently munged it until it became Rambo.

If the world's poor have to pay more for carbons than they'll charge more for the products they sell. We'll therefore pay for their carbons in our imported coffee and other goods.

Yes, if it happens you are correct, but that is a very big if.

If you were a…

Of course, the Ugandans have a much lower reductions target, but the marginal cost of that extra tonne is much higher for a poor country.

Yes, but that doesn't prevent '1st world' countries reducing their carbon emissions. Some of those activities might go off shore to more emission friendly countries, but others won't. It's not a pure free market there's umpteen other influences in play and countries have to take responsibility for what they produce just as much as what they consume.

At which…

The worlds poor simply cannot afford to.

I'm surprised that you ran with 'free markets rule the world' as your base explanation, and then let this fly.

If the world's poor have to pay more for carbons than they'll charge more for the products they sell. We'll therefore pay for…

If not, then how does the target level in one country (or group of countries) affect the pricing in another?

Because one metric tonne of carbon dioxide here and in Uganda is one metric tonne of carbon dioxide. (And if you don't have global prices the same then carbon leakage…

ETS is a crap "solution" propsed by the useless rich of the world, represented primarily by the EU and various Green parties therein.…

Fact – a NZ ETS will encourage the planting of trees and the removal of sheep and cows in NZ. By doing so it will in turn incentivise the farming of cattle and the destruction of rainforests in the tropics. An ETS will be bad for Planet Earth.

Erm, no…

Do all countries have the…

No I got that. New Zealand shouldn't try and reduce our carbon emissions because other parts of the world have malaria. Point well made, I can't believe I missed that yesterday.

Analogy doesn't work. I do forget that sometimes.

Please allow me to explain in very simple terms.

If we…

Well, you don't get many in coal mines. ;-)

I think they found that they were much cheaper than canaries, but much more difficult to keep in the cage.

Plus, how do you tell when a mosquito stops breathing?

Point well made

Drat, I thought he meant that mosquitos are allergic to carbon. :)

I think they've got "gross" in there incorrectly though? As they are talking about purchasing units on the international market where marginal costs incentivise you to?

So have been trying to answer my own question here – can someone confirm that Gross Emissions INCLUDES offset units purchased internationally? And Net…

In case the analogy didn't penetrate, malaria exists pretty much entirely because the poorest countries in the world cannot afford to fight it. And the rich ones do not help.

No I got that. New Zealand shouldn't try and reduce our carbon emissions because other parts of the world have…

I can only hope their fears are realised.

In case the analogy didn't penetrate, malaria exists pretty much entirely because the poorest countries in the world cannot afford to fight it. And the rich ones do not help.

With climate change the same shit will happen and it is worse. Because we (the rich) will be providing…

I think they've got "gross" in there incorrectly though? As they are talking about purchasing…

This is the "The World is a Perfect Free Market" theory of the environment.

In which it's apparently completely impossible for other parts of the world to respond in any way to movements in emission production.

Malaria – you might have heard of this disease – resides in mosquitoes found…

Fact – a NZ ETS will encourage the planting of trees and the removal of sheep and cows in NZ. By doing so it will in turn incentivise the farming of cattle and the destruction of rainforests in the tropics. An ETS will be bad for Planet Earth.

Not…

Fact – a NZ ETS will encourage the planting of trees and the removal of sheep and cows in NZ. By doing so it will in turn incentivise the farming of cattle and the destruction of rainforests in the tropics. An ETS will be bad for Planet Earth.

This is…

If you wish to impose an ETS I strongly advise against engaging in factual argument. Instead you really need to ramp up on the hysterical bullying.

More importantly, it gave the opposition a template for successfully making the Government back down: Ignore the minimal cost imposed by a change…

Do you not remember the level of the opposition to the attempt at a ETS? "FART TAX"!!!! Tractors up the steps of parliament! What do you suggest Labour should have done? Used urgency to ram through legislation in the teeth of hysterical opposition? We are not talking about the current…

Mrs Buttle.

and do remember – as she says on her website:

I am passionate about ensuring a brighter future for all New Zealanders. As the Minister for Social…

How does this affect MPs' plea of privacy over their expenses?

Worms. Can of.

Opening up the Parliamentary Service to the Official Information Act is a "can of worms"? Whose side are they on in that?

But you can only advise a Minister if they ask for the advice.

Well, she was on Campbell Live just now claiming she did ask for advice. She was also extremely unclear as to who, precisely, she asked. Sure as hell didn't sound like it was a lawyer. But apparently…

It's a bit too late for that. Key has declared himself "comfortable" with her actions — and expressed the view that it would be better if all the facts were out in the open at the start of any such debate.

That's thoroughly irresponsible. The vicissitudes of politics might mean…

I kind of thought that checking these things was what Ministers had staff *for*, but I guess with all those cuts to bureaucracy they've got to do their own work these days. Clearly there are some bugs still to be worked out.

I'm sure the advice is available – it's…

Still trying to figure my way around forests... who knew counting trees was so hard?

Have a look here

Ouuu, excellent. Exactly what I need for the thing I was researching before this distraction.

You'd rightly expect him and his advisors to recognise the limitations of the report, however.

If you knew who his advisors were you'd set a much lower expectation, and in any case you're assuming they and the Minister were wanting to use the reports' findings correctly...

Fucking bastards.

Yes, and now that we are open for business,anyone can buy in.Don't care who you are as long as you can pay.What we got tomorrow?

On the other hand, Your Views is filled with drooling idiots braying 'good on her!' Beneficiaries? Fair game, apparently.

Yes. One of the women said she'd been listening to Radio Live today. I imagine that wasn't pleasant.

How does this affect MPs' plea of privacy over their expenses?

Worms. Can of.

I think Bennett's actions have the potential to do to Key what David Benson-Pope did to Clark.

On the other hand, Your Views is filled with drooling idiots braying 'good on her!' Beneficiaries? Fair game, apparently.

The problem is when some fuckwit takes your worst-case-scenario and pretends it's the mid-point.

Yep.

Still trying to figure my way around forests... who knew counting trees was so hard?

Have a look here

Didn't take long for them to reveal their true ghastly colours, did it? Fucking bastards. And she's the worst of the lot because she touts herself as having been from a "deprived" background.

She got the very training supplement that was actually the issue here. I'm still steaming about her…

Bennett's grossly breached the standards expected of a Minister and Key must act to avoid this setting a shocking precedent.

It's a bit too late for that. Key has declared himself "comfortable" with her actions — and expressed the view that it would be better if all the facts were…

Okay, having heard the news report, and from one of the women whose personal information was revealed by Paula Bennett, and from Bennett herself ... I am officially appalled.

Yup. I think Bennett's actions have the potential to do to Key what David Benson-Pope did to Clark. Bennett's grossly breached…

It's not just what Bennett did, it's her refusal to accept any responsibility for the odium these women have suffered today,…

They've won the right to another decade or two of windfall profits, and when the chickens come home to roost, they'll just get the taxpayer to bail them out.

Chickens called Waxman, Markey and Waitrose.

Hey-o, I'm really hesitant about blaming the wonks on this one

Yeah, pulling out a butter knife and handing it to the chef without telling him it's not good for carving steak is slightly problematic. You'd rightly expect him and his advisors to recognise the limitations of the report, however.

I never quite get past that. Its the same with biofuels.

Can someone please point out where the fuck my reasoning has gone off track?

Whoops: yes; its a clear sign that they're not seriously interested in costing it, just producing a stick for the Minister.

There is a -15% / $200/ton scenario as well.

George: what Keith said. They simply did a "worst case" scenario – combining a strong target, an (even…

The Republicans inflated the cost of cap and trade by a factor of 20x according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Climate change legislation pending in Congress would cost U.S. households only about $175 annually in higher energy and consumer prices, far less than the…

Which is the antithesis of a ETS or tax – they're supposed to impose a significant price signal, in order to impose costs on emissions and incentivise other behaviour.

The big flaw in ETS theory is that "significant price signal" derived is actually to maximise profitability based on differences in…

I have to say that a lot of the blame also sits squarely on the shoulders of Helen Clark.

Do you not remember the level of the opposition to the attempt at a ETS? "FART TAX"!!!! Tractors up the steps of parliament! What do you suggest Labour should have done?…

As Sir Humphrey Appleby would say, the Minister has adopted the tactic of playing the (wo)man not the ball.

But she Googled the Privacy Commission before she did it, so, uh, that's okay then. Or something.

I kind of thought that checking these things was what Ministers had staff *for*, but…

First, you're making the claim that a model which does not calculate the cost of domestic emissions reduction (DER), which the authors explicitly say should not be interpreted as the cost of DER, should be considered as the cost of DER. I think that the burden of proof…

Bad economic modelling, which asssumes allocations as a shock, does not try to model the costs and benefits of pre-2020 adaptation to medium and high price signals, and leaves out forestry and other sequestration entirely , wins out.

On what basis is it presumed that post-Copenhagen there will be a…

If the carbon price isn't high enough, those forests all get harvested. If that happens the credits we received for…

"It won't be 40 per cent," Key said yesterday.

"The OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] average is 15 per cent, Australia is 14 per cent. My guess is that New Zealand will be somewhere in that benchmark. We don't intend to be a world…

Also, this is another one of Keith's Posts That I Don't Understand.

You know the bit where Nick Smith said, "if we do this* it will cost us a shit load of money". Well the report he says support his statement doesn't. In fact it says pretty much the opposite.…

We probably do need a bit of a Plain England version if it's to make any kind of MSM impact.

Plain English? You would have to use crayons and stick people for most of them.

Also, this is another one of Keith's Posts That I Don't Understand.

Which is understandable.
We probably do need a bit of a Plain England version if it's to make any kind of MSM impact....

Also, this is another one of Keith's Posts That I Don't Understand. They are reasonably frequent, and they make me feel hugely stupid. But go hard!

6. Someone goes to the media about a Department's decision to stop their benefit and is quoted as saying it shows the unfairness of the policy.…

Or is your sub-text that any one getting money from the state should shut up, be grateful, and take what is coming to them?

Maybe next…

You've been reading kiwiblog comments again, haven't you?

Eww. I don't go near the place. Spoils the effect of showering daily.

Their…

but WTF is up with the photo on that story? I'm thinking "heeeere's Paula"...

I'm also thinking that – as it's a privacy issue it must be a Key Hole camera shot – that's why the sunlight is directly on her :…

Apparently they do get a pass for breaking the law though.

Um, no Kyle — I'll leave it to the Privacy Commissioner to examine the case and come to a determination. But as I said, I've little sympathy for spin gone bad.

Apparently they do get a pass for breaking the law though.

You've been reading kiwiblog comments again, haven't you?

Just as, to return to the original post, Ministers of the Crown don't get a pass for pulling numbers out of their arses, or trying to shove inconvenient data down the memory hole.

Apparently they do get a pass for breaking the law though.

There is a -15% / $200/ton scenario as well.

George: what Keith said. They simply did a "worst case" scenario – combining a strong target, an (even more) ridiculous…

Well, if it isn't illegal it should be. That's a supremely crap way of acting.

Perhaps — but part of me doesn't feel a lot of sympathy for people who present themselves in the media (and to politicians) as victims, when the truth is a little more complicated. Just as,…

Not only does the law have to have been breached, but you have to prove that the breach of the law has…

Ahem. To clarify myself some more (and dealing with your first point), the domestic emissions reduction calculations in that report assumes no policy change. That is, it is how the market will respond at varying prices of carbon, given current policies.

ARGH... gotta run. Will restate this properly later.

This

Which is probably illegal under the Privacy Act, according to Mr NoRightTurn.

Keith Ng wants to be careful, I imagine Paula Bennett is about to release his student loan record as we speak.

Tom: I'm going to regret asking, but what the hell are you going on about?

I don't think it was an assumption that prices will go to $200 if there was a 40% reduction – it was just a high-end scenario. "Where would we be if price was at $200 *and* we were faced with a 40% reduction?"

Whoops: It doesn't test for…

Short summary: Kyoto based carbon emission trading.

It will cost us a shitload of money (Keith's, Nick Smith's, whoevers estimate). It won't work. It won't be adopted by the rest of the world. It is manifestly exploitative of the 3rd world.

It has no up side.

Although, now that I look at it again, I can't see the sense in declaring that "parameter and elasticity values may not be valid" at $262 because of the shifts this would induce in the economy, and declaring them valid…

Check out tables 3 and 4 on page 7. Domestic emission reductions are affected by assumptions about price. In the Infometrics model, they are fixed for any given price level. In the NZIER model, they move very marginally at a…

The figure Nick Smith is using might not be the cost of reducing emissions, but it is the cost of meeting the target, with emissions reductions both here and overseas.

And that is exactly the point. "40%" in the context of this report does not mean a reduction in domestic…

The figure Nick Smith is using might not be the cost of reducing emissions, but it is the cost of meeting the target, with emissions reductions both here and overseas.

No. It's a special case in which the economists and Nick Smith (completely unrealistically) ignore the impact of expanding carbon…

(For effect please be imaging following text to be becoming progressively bolder.)

We should not be involved in emission trading.

These are emission targets for a Kyoto type country-by-country emission policy. Kyoto based emissions caps have a few minor issues which bear thinking about.

The most important of…

Two things:

1) The allowance of AAUs is not equal to a domestic target.

Well yes, but it's a good proxy; Unless you assume we can't use international trading to meet our domestic target. If…

None of the original reports made the distinction. So even if he did mean the right thing, all the reports were wrong.

Thus, I went to the speech he delivered. He could have been clearer. Next time I imagine he will be. But why so many people – reporters and…

The assumption seems to be that a 40% reduction is equivalent in price to $200. Which isn't unreasonable, it just isn't noted as one. Every paper I ever read written by economists consists of assumptions, few of them explicitly noted.

I don't think it was an assumption that prices will…

It may be a nuance, but I suspect most people understand the difference between the words "any person" and the words "any person (except the defendant)". No flub here.

Were you talking about some other flub, Russell?

No, that one. If he meant "including the defendant" — ie, the part…

Indeed — meanwhile

May I be the first to say, and I mean this in the nicest possible way, WTF?

From the table on pg 3 it seems that only a $200/t scenario has been done for the 40% case.

Apples and pears...

The assumption seems to be that a 40% reduction is equivalent in price to $200. Which isn't unreasonable, it just isn't noted as one. Every paper I…

Keith Ng with Wammo on Kiwi FM

“RGNDI per capita is expected to rise from about $38,500 in 2009 to around $49,000 in 2020, in the absence of any participation in an international agreement on emission reductions.
− With 1990 levels of AAUs (61.9Mt) and a world price of $100, this would…

That's my understanding. Is that what we're talking about?

That's what I thought. It wasn't a flub.

The speech:

... I believe we need to have an open debate about the way in which sexual violence cases are conducted.

In this regard, I am currently considering potentially far-reaching reforms, including:…

I thought people just got the wrong end of the stick.

He said, in his speech, that he was going to enact a reform which – people then pointed out – had already been enacted. (Regarding admissibility of evidence about sexual history of complainants).

That's my understanding. Is that what…

With Simon Power's flub last week

Flub? I thought people just got the wrong end of the stick. Or was there something I missed in my week away from Wellington?

Stupid and ignorant people being stupid and ignorant is annoying. But when smart people (and Espiner is no dummy) choose to pretend to be stupid, because they think the audience is ... that's really depressing.

Although I suppose, since…

Currently family in the UK *only* buy NZ butter etc. because they, rightly, view our farmers as the least subsidised and most efficient in the world. This attitude will change very fast if they see us as one of the dirtiest countries in the world. Just saying.

[[http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2611187/Kiwi-hoki-off-Queens-menu|It's already…

Now Keith has me yelling at the bloody computer. Good work sir.

The word on the street is that you do in fact yell. A lot.

And besides, he was happy to leave all that complicated science to the minister.

And this is actually the problem: it's natural and easy to just recycle the written media material you're given. I've done it myself.

But, frankly, the original report is not a lengthy one, and employs nearly…

But Guyon said on his live cross it was cold!

And didn't he add something about "Global warming hasn't come to Wellington"? That had me yelling at the TV.

Now Keith has me yelling at the bloody computer. Good work sir.

yrs
Mr Phelps
Emission Implausible

Forehead. Vein. Proper fucking reporting. Where you check things and shit.

Indeed — meanwhile, on the other side of the fence, could I be cynical enough to suggest that Lucy Lawless might do a damn sight more for the planet if she and her husband laid off the air miles?…

Don't bend over just yet. I'm looking at the report and haven't yet reconciled it with the statements Smith has made.

No – Smith is still very much spanked, but Graeme is right that my original wording is misleading. It implies that "cut emissions by 40%" and "no cuts at…

Sigh. I'll take it

Strikethrough can be your friend, you know.

Sigh. I'll take it.

Don't bend over just yet. I'm looking at the report and haven't yet reconciled it with the statements Smith has made.

Keith Ng. Spanking. Now.

According to the analysis that Nick Smith has been waving around, if we do not cut our emissions *at all* by 2020, we will incur a cost of $60 per person per week.

Sigh. I'll take it.

spit in your face and some hearing damage.

Entirely forgivable. Welcome, in fact.

That Smith managed to get it so spectacularly wrong is either gross dishonesty, or an abject failure in reading.

It's getting pretty dire when the bullet-point cabinet can't even get the bullet points right. (I feel rueful…

I'm happy to hold him to it:

According to the analysis that Nick Smith has been waving around, if we do not cut our emissions by 40% by 2020, we will incur a cost of $60 per person per week.

Keith Ng. Spanking. Now.

**__According to the analysis that Nick…

He's poking his elbow to demonstrate how a rectal examination is performed.

Whichever it is, I'm not holding my breath on the media calling him on it.

Forehead. Vein. Proper fucking reporting. Where you check things and shit.

And to be serious, are we surprised at politicians finding ways to spin information in a way that allows them to pretend that an inconvenience, as they and their backers see it, is simply not feasible? I'm sure Labour did the same thing, but this is pretty far…