Anyone else see alcohol prohibition on the horizon?

Interesting that you should say that. There could be some global activity on that front in the near future.

Having had to go cold turkey this year for medical reasons, though, I have somewhat more equivocal views on this than I once…

Are you saying the deep structure stuff that Chomsky pioneered is now regarded as completely wrong, or do we just have a more nuanced understanding of its place alongside other stuff?

More nuanced understanding, this page has info about the changes that have taken place there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transformational-generative_grammar

Being wrong isn't something a scientist should lose respect for anyway. It's easy to not be wrong.

Indeed.Also I'm not sure that disproved necessarily entails wrong.

Have no idea if Chomsky is out of the mainstream in that.

No, hes firmly ensconced as he's kept updating and revising. A mere…

Speaking of Chomsky, few other widely respected academics have had so many theories disproven.

Really? I don't having anything to go by here, maybe you do. But I'd be very surprised if anyone who was on the cutting edge of any newish field of inquiry 40 odd years ago didn't…

Speaking of Chomsky, few other widely respected academics have had so many theories disproven.

Mark, I presume you mean actually disproven in academic terms, not just forcefully disagreed with because they're inconvenient to those in power. And are you talking aobut his earlier linguistic work?

Anyone else see alcohol prohibition on the horizon?

I was about to say "Because that just worked so well for the Americans", and then realised that we seem to be cursed with polly-tubbies who can't learn from the history of other nations' mistakes. If they don't get made here, they…

why is the rate of imprisonment meant to continue escalating?

Anyone else see alcohol prohibition on the horizon?

Speaking of Chomsky, few other widely respected academics have had so many theories disproven.

(There was a bit of a kerfuffle about the inclusion of maoriness as a risk factor coupla years ago)

Average reoffending as…

All sane adult humans know – we die.

Yep twice even for us this week. I like to celebrate death rather than mourn death too much but as soon as there is a kink in the works all hell can break loose. Go figure?

This is the mammoth in the room: humans actually need stimulant/enhancement/depressant-but-feel-good/analgesant
and/or hallucogene – to continue to be. Like, live-
quite a few of us get a hormone high (from various activities) and quite a few of us get a kind of…

There's a definate link between the consumption of booze and recorded crimes ....

And we keep pushing the booze.

Have you considered that the crime rate may be in decline because of the higher rate of imprisonment?

In which case, why is the rate of imprisonment meant to continue escalating? If the crime rate is in decline because we're locking more people up, the tipping point must surely have…

(Probably they offend at a much reduced rate, or at least you'd hope so, but they can still offend on the inside.)

think these people are the ones we're more likely to see committing crime – but equally it means that increasing sentences has no effect...

No deterrent effect.

Once they're inside, they not committing burglaries (or whatever).

Have you considered that the crime rate may be in decline because of the higher rate of imprisonment?

I hadn't considered that, however it doesn't seem as if that would explain the predicted higher rate. If the crime rate is in decline then we should see fewer being sent to…

Have you considered that the crime rate may be in decline because of the higher rate of imprisonment?

I have wondered about that. It strikes me that it's hard to prove. Clearly some kinds of crime are prevented by imprisoning potential offenders. But:
– some violent offenders continue to offend…

I have responded on the other thread about the ACC counsellors and funding, which I didn't dig…

Total: 340 above the original forecast by 2018. About a tenth of the total increase. It's not nothing, but it's not the source of the problem, either.

I'm confused (perhaps because it's Friday and my brain has unwound).

If I read correctly, 90% of the forecast increase in numbers is…

Something's clearly got you pissed off, but I'm not sure what or who.

Or how the fact that crap tv is currently playing on my (relatively small) flat screen tv affects my, or anyone else's, ability to discuss anything.

And a reasonable percentage who enter, as well, I would wager.

Indeed. Which is why I preferred to stay clear of the mental health issues associated with offending. Some people really are unable to stop themselves from doing the things that result in their incarceration, though probably not enough to…

I guess that reduced wages and working conditions fits in with basic right-wing dogma, but it's hardly good for the economy. What happened to trying to narrow the wage gap with Australia?

It got Visionstreamed, of course.

I'd like to suggest that most people whom spent time locked in prisons, will emerge with mental problems to some degree.

And a reasonable percentage who enter, as well, I would wager.

And remember, corporations are legally obliged to behave like sociopaths.

Only because the law doesn't oblige them otherwise. What the law giveth, the law can also taketh-away. In this case, the law could quite easily (of course it won't, but it could) place strict obligations of care on private prison…

We were also told by submitters who had worked in private prisons that money was saved through the use of improperly trained casual staff, the moving of prisoners at risk in order to reduce staffing costs, and the constraining of career structures in order to…

Insert a clause fining a private prison every time an inmate reoffends and maybe the profit motive could actually be helpful :-)

a) contract prices would simply go up to cover it (plus profit margin, of course).
b) that would set a dangerous incentive for prisoners with a high chance…

committee heard submissions from staff that reinforced the necessity for the greatest levels of transparency and caution in managing such an intensive environment in a privately-managed prison—for example, claims of 80 percent higher prisoner-to-prisoner violence and 60 percent…

Once Phil Goff is no longer leader of the Labour Party, it will be possible to have a sensible discussion on crime.

Quite.

The main reason I did not vote Labour in the last three elections was Goff's record as Justice Minister. I had formed a dislike for him in…

The 2002 legislation only changed some details of the existing laws bought in by National. The reason, so they wouldnt spend a cent on new prisons.

Once Phil Goff is no longer leader of the Labour Party, it will be possible to have a sensible discussion on crime.

Yeah, I think you're right on this one, George. Worse than the fact that he carries a decade of ministerial baggage with him is that it makes the…

corporate welfare for polluters

Quite. Grrr.

As is often the case, Graeme, you're technically entirely correct, but fail to actually address the substance of the argument.

You're right that reoffending is easy to monitor per se, but how do you measure the relevance of that reoffending?

You don't. You take a statistical analysis and work on…

Also, what George said. Until something dramatic changes, we will continue to see politicians of many stripes wasting vast sums of public money imprisoning more people while cutting funding for trivial things like special education support and night classes.

Or corporate welfare for polluters, for that matter.

As for something…

The answer is actually pretty simple.

Measuring whether an inmate reoffends is very very easy. If they're convicted for a crime post-release, they've re-offended.

Sounds like a great way to encourage private prison operators to lobby ever harder for longer sentences. Not only do they get more moolah for having people in jail longer, they actually…

The issue is complex, and doesn't neatly fit into a metric that is easily measurable in a contractual sense.

Totally agree with that. Applies to many functions currently in the public service. It therefore worries me when they talk about priviatising them.

Measuring whether an inmate reoffends is very very easy. If they're convicted for a crime post-release, they've re-offended.

As is often the case, Graeme, you're technically entirely correct, but fail to actually address the substance of the argument.

You're right that reoffending is easy to monitor per se, but how…

but those aren't the important indicators

I agree. Though I think many of the public might be less concerned about 'nice' kiwifruit and settle for simply having them locked in someone else's fruitbowl.

Also, what George said. Until something dramatic changes, we will continue to see politicians of many stripes…

What we want is prisoners who are humanely treated, given opportunities and incentive to rehabilitate, and who don't reoffend. Measuring all of those things is inherently hard.

Measuring whether an inmate reoffends is very very easy. If they're convicted for a crime post-release, they've re-offended.

What we want is prisoners…

If Corrections isn't trusted to run prisons efficiently, how can it be trusted to monitor efficiently?

So choose performance indicators that they have less chance of fudging – like escapes where the police will reluctantly be doing some of the data collection.

I personally doubt that it's worth the extra…

well behaved inmates

White collar crims like finance company bosses, you mean?

Surely the next most depressing thing apart from the spiralling numbers to be locked up, is the tiny, tiny amount for sommunity psych and probation services: $19million from $1.8billion over four years. WTF?

That's capital costs, so expansion of those offices to accommodate more staff etc.

As for private prisons,…

Also see the principled objections rasied by other posters – I didn't raise them because they're ideological more than practical. I happen to agree the state has…

Fundamentally – this is not an industry. This is not a business.

Yet we're sleepwalking towards it all over again.

Private run prisons…

[rant] As for private prisons, they may help with the short-term capital outlay to get new prisons built, but they will absolutely make the long-term situation worse. The incentives they set up are obscene.

...

The Geo group ... has a record in the US of actively lobbying for harsher…

But who is going to do anything on this? It's great getting all these comments in a liberal-luvvie-fest, but are you going to hope a MSM journo picks it up and does some hard work?…

My chief issues with private prisons is one…

[rant] As for private prisons, they may help with the short-term capital outlay to get…

My impression is the idea behind that is: The union has agreed to double bunking in th past, but on negotiated terms (for example, more staff on duty – which they may currently find hard…

Insider's PoV

And if you make the wrong call on who to bunk with who and someone is injured, or dies, you can bet the MInister of Corrections won't be putting up her hand to take responsibility.

I was thinking exactly that. When it happens – and it will happen – it'll…

Principally, it introduces a whole new layer of risk-laden decisions. It's a given that some of those calls will be wrong. And…

Who was Justice Minister for the previous nine years of government? Wasn't the Parole Act 2002 passed by him? Some fellow or other, I can never remember who.

That's a fair call, and both major parties have pandered to the "law and order" mob.

But the current admin has put…

Trouble is how do they sell it…