outbidding Australian buyers by $100,000 to $200,000 – and sometimes more – to secure the property.

in order to bring down property prices?…

Point is – the Labour Party was on to it earlier – see this article (24 May 2015) – from before the B&T stats exercise;…

That’s incredibly distressing Chris. Rather naively, before arriving back I’d anticipated New Zealand might have made some progress.

Yes, we arrived back March 2.

Smack dab in the middle of this:…

Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Ananish Chaudhuri: Auckland house price crisis – we name the guilty party

__There has been a lot of discussion about whether surnames can tell us about the extent of overseas Chinese investment in the Auckland housing market. But forget about the Chens, Wangs…

If we want to throw out the Key Govt but can't trust Labour to do so, maybe a stronger Green Party is…

I often wonder when I go to a country without street people (e.g. most of Northern Europe) whether they have an efficient and humane care system, or are quietly liquidating them in camps.

I've been struggling to keep up with the discussion, work is not conducive to that, but just for the sake of adding another anecdatum to the pile suggesting Labour should've looked at a wider time period…

'Reverse racism' my left foot. The very term 'reverse racism' is racist by definition.

That said, Marc C was correct in nothing how absurd the reaction to this thing has been. The media has published hysterical nonsense from one…

You know how it is:

The law is equal…

You say "reverse racism" and all I can think of is this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw_mRaIHb-M

Ha! "Reverse racism" indeed!

The middle class is the proletariat of today :-).

I’m guessing a lot of SME exporters like Ali Baba traders will offer their clients the option to pay in FX to a bank account in the importer’s country, and then they can swap the offshore NZD or whatever for RMB in a Chinese…

Seriously? If it's possible to do that, then it doesn't sound to me like there's any kind of effective ban on taking money out of…

I should probably add:

Chinese residents to convert $50,000 worth of renminbi to foreign currency annually.

The easiest bypass for that is to send RMB direct via those International money transfer companies you see around the place and convert…

current rules allow Chinese residents to convert $50,000 worth of renminbi to foreign currency annually.

with:

Individuals with net…

I'm trying to think of a country in SE Asia that * has * had traditionally friendly relations with China.

Think of that as the opportunity for the Chinese proletariat – the poor masses – opening up. The vast majority of the big money of the corrupt ruling elite has already fled.

Indeed. There's been plenty of that sort of cheap self-indulgence on social media, but I have no use for it here.

The most mind-numbing element of this story is the amount of money flooding out of China illegally. The numbers are obscene. Last week the major French bank, BNP Paribas, published an analysis of financial flow statistics for the first quarter of this year tabled by the…

As I've repeatedly said on here, Rob/Phil & co have handled the whole matter very poorly, and they deserve the criticism they've been getting for that.

What you're (unsubtly) doing is taking cheap shots for views they don't hold and haven't expressed. As I'm sure you know.

http://www.factsandopinions.com/galleries/opinion-columns/jonathan-manthorp-international-affairs/vancouver-not-mind-numbingly-boring-but-vacuously-vain/

I think you can glean offshore by the reference to end of semester and ‘during on holiday’. The student is likely returning to mainland China for the semester break and the agent is referring to any friends/family etc. you come across during…

Yes, big if. Although you'd hope Garner would have taken some action to satisfy himself of that.

The letter doesn't say offshore Chinese buyers either. The "despite official denials" part is weird – would a Barfoots agents say…

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/DUNCAN-GARNER-Is-this-letter-the-proof-we-need-we-have-a-problem-with-foreign-buyers/tabid/131/articleID/91900/Default.aspx#.Va7KcqMSdl0.twitter

Yes – I'll have a million bucks for the place on number 14 (Smith St) at Ellerslie please.

oh yes, typo.

I know I'm on very thin ice using Mr Jones as a reference but this is his area of expertise. (I was actually searching to see if he invests in residential property and it would seem he does not)

What’s a Band F realtor?

Sorry forget that – I've figured it was a typo – you meant B and T.

Yup, I've always found it a bit superfluous to seek supply/demand reasons for things. It's a lot like evolutionary arguments – you can always invent one. Fact is, there's seasonal variation for whatever reason. It should be adjusted for…

Yes, there are far more local buyers (using local incomes to pay and local borrowing to leverage) than there are buyers with foreign earnings and foreign leverage. But…

Good on you. So it's like a hypothesis.

However, if investor interest is steady over winter, but the supply of houses for sale is less, then supply

But if prices increase then suppliers would probably…

Short answer, Willie: A metric fuckton of…

Exactly, unlike NZ The Chinese fiscal year for all entities starts on 1 January and ends 31 December, consistent with the calendar year, to…

I get kinda sucked into detailed answers on PAS, which takes up a lot of time and brainspace, so I don't do it as much as I should.

So there are some seasonal patterns to house sales in general. What drives those seasonal changes, and might it affect the ethnic distribution of house sales?

For example, do migrants from a particular part of the…

Steve. I work most days in statistics. I sometimes even work in Statistics, as in Statistics New Zealand, as a contractor on data visualisations.

I can assure you that seasonal variations is not a thing I made…

I may have written some super biting satire…

“I pointed Keith to posts and tweets from each of them individually expressing support for the *method”,

“But data and method are not the same thing,”

Dead right data and method aren’t the same thing. You…

By posting racist cartoons? Oh sorry, that's just your Kiwiblog ...

...or are we being "liberal bigots" by not tolerating the racists?

..and pass down a lamp and a canary as its getting pretty toxic down there.

What did people like former Helen Clark advisor Keith Ng and economist Shamubeel Eaqub say when Maori rights were breached during the Tuhoe raids by the police in 2007 or when Labour rolled out their shameful foreshore and seabed act in 2004? Nothing. Just…

I know one of these ‘Auckland voters’ personally, and I’ve previously posted about him. Miraculously, he doesn’t drag my ethnicity into it.

Still, which team would you…

Spin their way out of what – the Auckland housing crisis, or foreign direct investment in our housing stock?

The issue itself will be resonating strongly with Auckland voters, however, and as Russell says, Farrar will have delved into that by now.

Still, which team would you put money on to spin their way…

Oh, I see. But that meltdown is likely confined (largely) to member/funders of the Labour Party.

I’ve been reading a lot of the social media commentary on this (including that type of commentary on MSM sites). What the actual media are saying is pretty…

In what way do you think Labour are helping National gain increased support, I wonder?

Labour are, yes.

As it stands right now, the least worst solution would probably be a boosted Greens vote in 2017, so that they're in…

Eh?

Yes, but the choice is not purely between "vote National" and "vote Labour", so it's entirely possible (and reasonable under MMP) to write them both off as hopeless.

I'm…

I think the most important criteria when judging a particular ‘elite’ in relation to its suitability to rule is respect for the rule of law.

The controversy over the use of this…

So despite the fact that several experts (Dr Black et. al., are experts) have called your data rubbish* you are still happy that you applied the analytical method correctly.

We have a bunch students here…

First, and less important, Phil Quin protests that he never made any comparisons with the Rwandan genocide. I disagree with him, and I’m perfectly happy to point people to…

Yes, can't wait to see how they wedge solo mums and disabled people to scrounge a few more votes. Great to see you here, too.

That's one way to reject the fact that many other minorities took exception to the way this information was presented.
Aaron Lim in…

Thanks, Russell

You're being a dick, Mr Curtis.

+1

A lot of people are talking about…

You can email me via the link at the bottom of any of my posts to discuss this if you like.

I'll amend what I said to ask "seasonal factors about name frequency that affect the analysis…

You're not really commenting in good faith. Improve your attitude, dude.

Others too are wondering about KN depth of stats knowledge

He is literally saying his level of certainty is unknown + unknown. Which equals, of course: unknown.
Well he ( salmond) certainly played with numbers…

End of financial year in China? Exchange rate? Spring? Chinese New Year? I saw that as example of tossing out possible variables rather than an actual opinion that it DOES vary seasonally (correction welcome!)

As for…

Not only in relation to this, as someone non-resident in NZ, I really often don't know the personalities floating about…

No, that's okay, Steve. What's really important is the way you acknowledged your fuck-up and owned it.

But I presume he wasn't responsible for this foray into statistical data journalism
http://www.statschat.org.nz/2015/07/20/pie-chart-of-the-day/

I really liked meeting David and his friends. His English isn’t great, but he got through and his concluding comments were…

Also while we're on methods, although I didn't mention it in my original post last week, I thought Rob's triangulation exercise was quite weak.

You have heard from me. I am a PhD qualified working statistician. What you are saying isn’t helping to create a quality discussion of the issues. I spent some time constructing my criticism avoiding all mention of…

You mean the kind of folks who dreamed on untroubled while this turkey was flapping loose?

Professional data journalist, thanks. Unlike you or me. Show some respect.

No the 'I know best' is anyone who has not noticed people who are hurt by all this. You must be living in a nice closed world if…

And fair enough. I detest seeing good people and whole cultures shat on for the short-term gain of smug white men wearing suits. It's also profoundly unoriginal. Not in my name, you fuckers.

You did read what Keith wrote above, right? Your second line I quoted is a pretty good summary. Well done.

And without knowing whether or not all the agencies have Chinese-language websites, or partner with Chinese agencies, and how effective they are in doing so, and whether they all did exactly the same things in the 3-month period,…

Really ? You would know this how ? Speaking for all the asian communities sounds a bit of ' I know best'.
Many other countries have restrictions on no resident buyers and we kidding ourslelves by…

Listen to people who are hurt & ashamed by a party that at it's roots is about people.…

You do know of course Harcourts have their own Chinese website, as they are an international agency.
http://harcourts.cn/
Barfoots has to link with another Chinese company as its an Auckland only business. This Barfoots chinese connection doesnt make it any different from other agencies. They all go after the…

http://www.barfoot.co.nz/about-us/our-partners
Our partnership with HouGarden puts your property in front of the Chinese market. Your property is advertised on the website, giving you exposure to non-english speaking audiences.

http://www.hougarden.com/

/facepalm

Are you highlighting the old switch-a-roo from “Chinese-speaking house buyers” to “overseas clients”? That seems to be a major conflation between two different concepts right back at the beginning of this saga A conflation leading to a conflagration.

That’s something I’ve been wondering about and haven’t seen mention of so far in the context of how representative this data is of all market sales. To what extent is it usual practice in all real estate…

So you have the lists of buyers from agencies ? Their web sites look all similar to me.

Were you meaning B&T were specifically targeting overseas clients.

It's for one company that specifically targets Chinese-speaking house buyers in its marketing.

Good grief man you are grasping at straws: seasonal variations !!.
Imagine picking the slow season for real estate sales, that changes everything then.

There was no useful way to use the data without creating problems such as these.

Hey, I’m a statistician. If we don’t count stuff I’m out of work.

That may be the only lasting value to dumping this on the media. Forcing…

The data is not robust. It's for one company over a period of three months. It doesn't take variations between companies or seasonal effects into account.

in the absence of other data, it might be easily acceptable…

To be fair, "following Australia" would achieve the major step of helping us understand whether we even have a problem.

Having been overseas (Australia) for a month and coming back in the middle of this saga, I feel that Rob scored an own goal on this…

Your attack on the statistical methodology is hysterical, however. The data…