Public Address | Cafe | OnPoint: Because Statistical Rigour

Crunchy Weta

Thu, 27 Sept 2012 20:11:46 +1200

John Hartevelt has done us a service. Anyone with half a wit can see the problems with this data set.

lynne walker

Wed, 26 Sept 2012 06:45:52 +1200

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-schools/7724200/Standards-may-aid-rating-of-teachers

Steve Barnes

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 19:46:45 +1200

imagine divining the future from Muldoon’s liver, just prior to a snap election!

Hmm, tastes just like chicken.

ETA. Goes well with cigars, cheers Keri. ;-)

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 19:21:47 +1200

Organ grinders..
Why not with gagged & bound politicians & long knives?
Their entrails must be much more reliable for prognostication
Haruspicy relies heavily on the liver for augury, imagine divining the future from Muldoon's liver, just prior to a snap election!

Islander

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 17:54:58 +1200

Why not with gagged&bound politicians & long knives?
Their entrails must be much more reliable for prognistication.
Yours fondly&feathery
-A. Chook

Steve Barnes

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 17:01:51 +1200

Any attempt to “analyse” such data cannot possibly be any better than interpreting chicken entrails,
So. Next week are we to expect the Min of Ed to be sending representatives around
schools with chickens and long knives as an improvement on their current random collection of disparate data?

Kumara Republic

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 16:38:12 +1200

And do the Education Forum and private school lobby have any role in all this, beyond simple advertising revenue?

linger

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 15:42:05 +1200

@Brent: Of course, media faith in statistics as a magic device to create information out of pure noise isn’t limited to newspapers – as seen in CSI and similar shows where “we used an algorithm to enhance the resolution of an image reflected in the victim’s eye, captured on a…

Sacha

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 15:32:31 +1200

the act of publication makes the numbers seem meaningful

Exactly as intended. Well done, 'free' press.

Brent Jackson

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 15:13:07 +1200

Well said linger.

The really annoying thing is that there seems to be nothing that can be done to stop such reporting debacles from happening.

linger

Tue, 25 Sept 2012 08:42:58 +1200

The data is uninterpretable, because the numbers used do not express a single known quantity. To put it briefly: the data is rubbish. Too much noise, too little signal.
You defend publishing the data :: you defend publishing rubbish.
Any attempt to “analyse” such data cannot possibly be any better…

Steve Parks

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 19:27:44 +1200

I’ve just realised that Jonathan Milne is actually the author of both the story about the failure of national standards in Britain and the “big class sizes are awesome” news story.

In an update to this post, the Dim-Post notes Milne's explanation for the 'class sizes' angle.

Update: HoS editor…

Euan Mason

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 19:08:44 +1200

Parata gets a D for the NS and an E for her Chch reorganisation of schools, and those are very generous grades.

Sacha

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 16:50:10 +1200

The data is widely regarded as garbage, so good luck with that.

Angus Robertson

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 16:37:42 +1200

Drawing graphs and printing false conclusions as headlines ... are you really defending that Angus?

No. Just the data.

mic weevil

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 15:46:46 +1200

I'm struggling to see where it tells me five eighths of fuck all.

You know the standard measure for fuck all in metrics & decimals now, right?

Russell Brown

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 15:14:30 +1200

People are smart enough to use this in conjunction with other sources of data.

And yet, not smart enough, apparently, to understand decile rankings.

Because publishing this data, no matter how flawed, allows readers to expand on their existing data sets and gain a better understanding of the school system.…

Bart Janssen

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 14:37:22 +1200

Because publishing this data, no matter how flawed, allows readers to expand on their existing data sets and gain a better understanding of the school system.

Which might be remotely plausible IF they had not drawn a false and misleading correlation between two sets of data that statistically have no…

rodgerd

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 14:33:21 +1200

Worth noting the latest school newsletter from my daughter's primary school notes that they, like all the central Wellington primary schools have, in fact, submitted their NCEA details to MinEd (as they're required to), and the DomPost's accusation they are covering up their numbers is an outright lie.

Angus Robertson

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 14:31:49 +1200

Let me put a question to you. With all these caveats, what *is* the right way to use the data?

Correlate this data against other data.

You suggest your readers are smart enough to gain the right insight from this data. They are not. *Nobody* can get the right insight…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 14:03:22 +1200

I listened yesterday to the 4th Reith lecture given in Wellington by Niall Ferguson...

Ferguson has been the least impressive Rieth lecturer I can remember.

Martin Lindberg

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 13:29:59 +1200

I've just realised that Jonathan Milne is actually the author of both the story about the failure of national standards in Britain and the "big class sizes are awesome" news story.

I noticed that yesterday and I thought that was kinda weird.

wendyf

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 13:15:52 +1200

I listened yesterday to the 4th Reith lecture given in Wellington by Niall Ferguson, an economic historian. He was loud in his praise of current English education, and in particular private and charter schools.
I don't think he appreciated the strength of the opposition to his ideas.

Russell Brown

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 13:08:11 +1200

Keith has a post with a refresher lesson for us on correlation and significance.

I've just realised that Jonathan Milne is actually the author of both the story about the failure of national standards in Britain and the "big class sizes are awesome" news story.

Jonty

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 13:06:37 +1200

Of course, this ongoing tinkering with the state education system, as with hospitals, is intended to ultimately lead to private academies (and private health care) and the dismantling of the state systems. The majority in this government believe in that idealogically ... get the state out of everything. NS is…

Sacha

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 12:23:13 +1200

It’s odd how the papers are telling us national standards are misleading and destructive – but also drawing wild conclusions from the same standards data.

Keith has a post with a refresher lesson for us on correlation and significance.

Chris Waugh

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:38:04 +1200

At the recent Autism NZ conference, Tony Attwood mentioned that he now reckons that 100% of kids on the autism spectrum experience bullying.

I read an op-ed piece (i.e., to be taken with an appropriate grain of salt) discussing the case of a mildly autistic boy down in Shenzhen who…

Russell Brown

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:32:42 +1200

Interesting commentary from the Herald on Sunday’s Jonathan Milne, who used to work for The Times Educational Supplement:

The English regime is beginning to fall apart amid revelations of grade inflation – schools and bureaucrats pushing up the numbers each year so politicians can boast about education successes on the hustings.…

Bart Janssen

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:10:58 +1200

After last week’s false start, John Hartevelt may actually have redeemed himself.

But the data is rubbish. You can't say anything from it. It's like prescribing chemotherapy on the basis of a consultation with a psychic.

Even if what you say is kind of what you'd expect (poor schools struggle)…

Bart Janssen

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:04:31 +1200

Over the past 30 years the New Zealand education system has taken itself from a fairly standard empire derived system that performed pretty much on the average worlwide, to a world leading system.

It did so largely because decision making was taken out of the hands of politicians and put…

Kumara Republic

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:02:09 +1200

After last week's false start, John Hartevelt may actually have redeemed himself.

Aaron Dick

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 10:01:09 +1200

While I understand your frustration with this, it is exactly this sort of story that they are going to bring in actual National Standardised testing, which brings with it all the non-creativity, teaching to the test, etc that we have been warning about this whole time.

Did you get any…

Carol Stewart

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 09:24:17 +1200

On the subject of 'failing in writing':
Within a short space of time, my Year 8 lad received the following assessments of his writing:
'Below expectations' from one teacher.
'At expectations' from another teacher a short while later (having moved schools/cities).
And a Distinction pass in the ICAS exam for…

dc_red

Mon, 24 Sept 2012 06:13:44 +1200

a sad but resigned mother reporting that her local school had rejected the enrollment of her almost 5 year old autistic daughter. She had decided she hadn’t the energy to fight for the legal right of her daughter to attend the local school, and had found another more inclusive –…

Moz

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 22:32:40 +1200

That's my view. What we can learn from the data published so far is that... the bought media have no clue when it comes to statistics but will do anything to get a reader. Well, we can reiterate that point. Most of us already knew that.

Joe Wylie

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 21:26:19 +1200

Back in the 80s at Auckland's Avondale College the 'specials' were let out 20 minutes early so they could make it home without being rolled for their bus fare, which the bullies reputedly fed to the spacies machines. As special classes were thinly spread it could be an awfully long…

Hilary Stace

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 21:10:43 +1200

At the recent Autism NZ conference, Tony Attwood mentioned that he now reckons that 100% of kids on the autism spectrum experience bullying. Having to deal with National Standards against that background must be even harder.

Kumara Republic

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 19:47:18 +1200

And John Hartevelt could do worse than to read the wisdom of his compatriot Jonathan Milne on the class-ridden British education system.

Kumara Republic

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 19:23:40 +1200

And this is perhaps one of the starkest statements on National Standards so far:

__"As Wendy Sheridan-Smith walks through the playground, children run to hug her. Their fingers toy with a keepsake penny on the deputy principal's necklace.

"Is this money Miss?" one asks.

This is Rowandale Primary School in South…

Kumara Republic

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 19:18:34 +1200

But the publishing of the NS league tables will only reinforce the efforts of a large proportion of schools to do everything possible to exclude students who might ‘damage’ their data.

I think some of us predicted this in December 2008, at the beginning of the NS saga.

Despite coming…

Sacha

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 18:11:30 +1200

the only ones making light of this are dolts like Hide, thanks

lynne walker

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 18:10:39 +1200

Hi A friend who teaches at a decile 1 school just told me this tale. Class news, Birthday. The child gets given $40.00 for her birthday from her uncle.. She is very happy. Her news is that he mum needed it to take the washing to the laundomat.
She tells…

Sacha

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 14:26:45 +1200

cos there's no other way to get read, right? :)

Steve Parks

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 14:20:07 +1200

The list of people who should be writing for Stuff Nation is increasing.

Sacha

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 14:07:18 +1200

Dim Post also has a look at that class size

and his post before that one shows a shocking relationship between notional standards and decile.

Steve Barnes

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 13:14:14 +1200

the key to your school achieving well is for it to have a name starting with “i”

An Apple for the teacher.
Yay, the Apple iSchool.

Steve Barnes

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 13:07:33 +1200

But wait...
There is more
Dolphin vote 'tarnishes NZ's reputation'
New Zealand is the only country to vote against further protection for the critically endangered Maui's dolphins at the world's largest conservation summit.
This is truly innovative thinking. By doing this our guvnorment can sell the rights to…

Steve Parks

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 13:03:08 +1200

Dim Post also has a look at that class size point: Well below standard in analysis.

Russell Brown

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 12:50:15 +1200

Ben Gracewood has considered the Herald on Sunday's dumbarsed attempt to use the data to back a proposition that large schools and classes improve your child's education and demonstrated that the key to your school achieving well is for it to have a name starting with "i".

giovanni tiso

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 12:43:45 +1200

Meanwhile, the Dom Post exclaims "NATIONAL STANDARDS: HOW YOUR CHILD'S SCHOOL RATES

Praising Hartevelt's "good reporting" may be gracious but it is also quite misguided, since at the same time as he appears to be saying look, a school is not only those things, and you have to consider what…

Hilary Stace

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 12:24:27 +1200

The same day the NS data was published there was a post on Facebook from a sad but resigned mother reporting that her local school had rejected the enrollment of her almost 5 year old autistic daughter. She had decided she hadn’t the energy to fight for the legal right…

Steve Parks

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 12:18:55 +1200

I think it’s pretty disingenuous to say that the data isn’t moderated so schools aren’t directly comparable, then feature a school comparison tool as the main way of navigating the data.

Also, as Giovanni Tiso pointed out on Twitter, you have John Hartevelt saying: __"Anyone who read the National Standards…

Sacha

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 11:24:18 +1200

I think the current debate about poverty and the results in lower Decile schools should be looked at . I don't understand why we are not directly debating those links.

Rodney Hide knows all about this. It's because poor families don't care enough. You can tell cos they don't eat porridge.

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 10:28:44 +1200

(word up!)

NACTShundenial's Standards.

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 08:39:43 +1200

The word is “juvenannihilation”
drow!

(word up!)

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 08:36:13 +1200

A Liddell logic...
In a week when the Ministry of Education can describe closing schools as “rejuvenation”, I no longer expect anything to make sense.
Yeah verily, indeed!
It has sent an 'Alas, through the Looking Class...'

or the the whole thing may just be more of Juvenal's biting social…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 08:20:54 +1200

too down, he said cryptically...
The answer I come up with is,
“A change of government”.
I too, have an answer to a change of government
– having cast the characters,
and spun up the angramaphone –
the answer to
a change of government is...
(the very apt descriptive)...
__…

DexterX

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 07:48:09 +1200

In a week when the Ministry of Education can describe closing schools as "rejuvenation", I no longer expect anything to make sense.

To have used the word "rejuvenation" is to imply that the govt got it wrong and is having to make adjustments – this is inidcative of an inability…

lynne walker

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 07:26:16 +1200

Well it seems that the question should be why are there such large differences when looking at the results of Pasifika and Maori students in particular.
This information has been around for a long time, so National Standards don't help provide any solutions. Looking at schools that move kids along…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 06:51:17 +1200

Perhaps we should just ignore it?

Welll said. I'd concentrate on the closures and don't let them sidetrack you with this stupid NACT divisive ideology.

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 06:45:31 +1200

On tonight’s TV1 news Paraka quoted:

That is a very good shortened name. Hekia + Parata = Paraka. :)

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 06:23:01 +1200

Well, no, these numbers won’t let you “measure the teachers” at all, HoS editors. You just concocted that angle to play on a popular prejudice.

But their teachers levitate

Kumara Republic

Sun, 23 Sept 2012 01:00:24 +1200

Maybe it’s because this government’s actions are so reminiscent of the worst of the Nixon/Reagan years.

Or even Sir Joh, maybe?

Steve Barnes

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 23:13:59 +1200

I suppose there is one thing that is refreshing, a bunch of meaningless numbers that don't have dollar signs in front of them for a change.

Lilith __

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 22:48:26 +1200

Y’know Lilith that they have to kill the hamlet to save it

How much more Orwellian can things get?

On tonight’s TV1 news Paraka quoted: “It’s widely agreed that post-earthquake changes to Chch’s schools are necessary”. Love that passive voice. Who is doing all this agreeing? And like it’s out…

Hebe

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 22:36:02 +1200

In a week when the Ministry of Education can describe closing schools as “rejuvenation”, I no longer expect anything to make sense.

Y’know Lilith that they have to kill the hamlet to save it. That phrase has been in my mind all week. Maybe it’s because this government’s actions are…

Lilith __

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 22:29:57 +1200

In a week when the Ministry of Education can describe closing schools as "rejuvenation", I no longer expect anything to make sense.

mic weevil

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 20:54:49 +1200

The answer I come up with is, "A change of government".

That's been the standard answer to a lot of my questions lately...

DexterX

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 20:31:33 +1200

I find myself asking instead of making meaningless comparisons, as a parent, well then what is going to ensure that children everywhere get a quality education?

The answer I come up with is, "A change of government".

kris_b

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 19:28:53 +1200

I note that for my school, they only link to an old ERO Report from 2008, not the latest one from 2011. Seems to be the case for a few others I quickly checked too.

John Farrell

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 18:43:35 +1200

When my kids were at school, I was able to assess how they were achieving by observation. I didn't need newspapers or league tables to do this.
They went to our neighbourhood schools, the primary school a block away, and the college a 5 minute walk.
Where does this anxiety…

mic weevil

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:52:38 +1200

Well, no, these numbers won’t let you “measure the teachers” at all,

aside from the obvious problems – ie. with using a set of stats that distill a huge number of complex variables into some simplified, aggregated, unmoderated figures – identifying teacher quality based on the performance of a school's…

Hebe

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:44:52 +1200

If NS are meant to allow parents to access unbiased straightforward data that will allow them to assess their child's future or present school's teaching performance, the result is Not Achieved (with Excellence).

I looked up my children's school as a matter of interest to see how the information is…

Sacha

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:36:03 +1200

Nah, that's what welfare changes are for. This stuff has been going on since the current govt were elected 4 years ago.

Melmac

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:34:46 +1200

The cynical among us are starting to believe that National Standards and League Tables were concocted by the National Party to divert the popular discourse away from our economy and National's mishandling of it.

Russell Brown

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:25:40 +1200

The Herald on Sunday has tweeted this:

National Standards – marking the teachers. In tomorrow’s Herald on Sunday we crunch the numbers and find out how your primary school rates.

Well, no, these numbers won’t let you “measure the teachers” at all, HoS editors. You just concocted that angle to…

Russell Brown

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:23:08 +1200

The Weekend Herald has gone one better: under the front-page lead headline ’Why children fail in writing’ (and, on the home page of the website ‘Our kids’ failing standards’ ) it has declared a trend off the back of the first year’s data.

If you can compare one school’s National…

Public Address

Sat, 22 Sept 2012 17:23:08 +1200

Discussion from blog post.