Public Address | Cafe | Muse: OFF TOPIC: This Is What Your Brain Looks Like On Evidence...

Idiot Savant

Fri, 15 Jul 2011 17:22:28 +1200

Email me, I'll send it to you.

Emma Hart

Fri, 15 Jul 2011 17:21:24 +1200

ResearchNZ poll just out today: 60 – 34% in favour. Question was "should same sex couples also be allowed to marry?"

That's fabulous. Also, about what I'd expect as it's in line with Australia. Soon as that goes up online I'll be all over it.

Idiot Savant

Fri, 15 Jul 2011 17:00:26 +1200

Polling. I want some fucking polling on this.

ResearchNZ poll just out today: 60 – 34% in favour. Question was "should same sex couples also be allowed to marry?"

bmk

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 12:23:32 +1200

A wider issue is that polling companies appear not to have discovered cellphones yet.

Apparently as yet this hasn't been a significant problem as they have found the people who don't have land-line phones vote similarly to the people who do have land-lines and match their demographic. So by weighting…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 12:06:28 +1200

How did politicians ever do anything before the rise of pollsters and focus gropes? (ETA: That a typo to keep.) Jus’ asking.

For a moment there I almost read 'focus groupies'. Still, it probably wouldn't be too distantly related.

A wider issue is that polling companies appear not to have…

Idiot Savant

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 11:25:43 +1200

I understand that Research New Zealand will be polling on the issue next month.

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:28:27 +1200

How did politicians ever do anything before the rise of pollsters and focus gropes? (ETA: That a typo to keep.) Jus’ asking.

BenWilson

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:11:59 +1200

Yup, stats is great, but sometimes you aren't actually after that much accuracy in your data. You might just be trying to decide if it's even worth further investigation.

bmk

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 19:21:43 +1200

If it's "eight out of ten people surveyed said they thought gay marriage was already in law" then you might get a good enough answer to that out of calling up 30 people.

Problem is with thirty people you'd have a margin of error of around 18% if the sample…

BenWilson

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 18:54:14 +1200

Polling companies to reduce costs often combine several polls on the one person which makes the process more economic.

Or they've already done the poll and can just sell you the answer. But sure, they have economies of scale, that's why people use them. And ringing people up is very…

bmk

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 18:13:09 +1200

Heh. Or ring up a few hundred people randomly and just ask the question. Polling isn't rocket science

Well it isn't rocket science but you should also record demographics of the person and weight accordingly, you should also try to randomise the person being asked (otherwise this introduces bias as…

Tim Hannah

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 14:08:47 +1200

Methinks it’s time for Messers Key and Goff to start hearing from some families (and registered electors) that Bob most definitely does not speak for

Read Bob McCoskrie in the Dompost yesterday. Made me want to get a divorce.

Bob, if you don't piss off my children might* be brought…

recordari

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 14:04:16 +1200

What I've noticed lately? People in their late teens/early twenties who are sure we already have same-sex marriage.

And older. That and/or that Civil Union is better and more equitable in terms of what it offers. Hard to understand the finer points of all this based on what is in…

BenWilson

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 13:18:42 +1200

Heh. Or ring up a few hundred people randomly and just ask the question. Polling isn't rocket science.

Idiot Savant

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 13:09:38 +1200

Polling. I want some fucking polling on this.

You could ask some pollsters, get a rough cost, and if its not unreasonably large, run a public pledge drive to fund it.

Emma Hart

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 11:56:42 +1200

We do have a new normal now.

Facebook occasionally shows me little windows into the minds of people in demographics I just don't normally run across. What I've noticed lately? People in their late teens/early twenties who are sure we already have same-sex marriage.

Polling. I want some fucking polling…

BenWilson

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 10:04:47 +1200

I shouldn't be so moved by hearing a politician saying that 1) evidence changed his mind, 2) he was just wrong and 3) would accept the consequences of doing the right thing.

Except that it so seldom happens, and even more seldom for something so important. What I liked was…

Craig Ranapia

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 09:05:19 +1200

I’ll see your Ugh and raise you an Eww… Methinks it’s time for Messers Key and Goff to start hearing from some families (and registered electors) that Bob most definitely does not speak for – and I think we’re both in that distinguished company. :)

Russell Brown

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 21:58:11 +1200

Just in case anyone's feeling too flushed with hope, Bob McCoskrie has Key and Goff for his election-year forum:

http://www.familyfirst.org.nz/forum

One of the guest speakers is Jim Wallace of the Australian Christian Lobby. Ugh.

Craig Ranapia

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 21:28:11 +1200

Politically, do we think it matters who does it? Should it be a straight, married, National Party female?

YMMV, but I'm not insensible to the fact that the straight, married women (one National, one Labour) who had their names on the Homosexual Law Reform and Human Rights Amendment Bills have…

Andre Alessi

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 14:22:28 +1200

It's a shame the Catholic Church in New Zealand (often a proponent of real social justice in so many areas) hasn't chosen to stand up to Head Office on this topic.

Don Christie

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 14:07:01 +1200

I agree, this is very good news, and a great speech. Good on Mayor Bloomberg for paying his fellow Republicans to do some researchiness.

Idiot Savant

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 13:04:13 +1200

Politically, do we think it matters who does it? Should it be a straight, married, National Party female? It seems unfortunate, but it feels likely that the personal life of the person who puts it forward may impact upon whether it passes, and how nasty it gets getting through.

It…

Idiot Savant

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:57:19 +1200

I’m even pretty sure Idiot/Savant has one he prepared earlier. :)

I do indeed:

http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2009/05/for-when-time-finally-comes.html

So, Nikki, Jacinda, how about it? Either of you got a spine?

Kyle Matthews

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 11:53:50 +1200

Well, yes – up to a point. But you know something, it’s never going to happen until someone shows a grain of Fran Wilde’s ovarian fortitude and says “the time is now ”.

Politically, do we think it matters who does it? Should it be a straight, married, National Party…

andin

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 08:09:36 +1200

And, dare I say it, could it be possible that politicians are actually underestimating the great unwashed electorate?

Nah, although it would be nice to think people are getting smarter, more worldy even.
All they've done is overestimate their nous and political acumen.

Craig Ranapia

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 07:35:38 +1200

You have a good idea there, Chris. Perhaps it is only a matter of time before same-sex marriages will be legal.

Well, yes – up to a point. But you know something, it’s never going to happen until someone shows a grain of Fran Wilde’s ovarian fortitude and says “the…

Lea Barker

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 04:27:40 +1200

Just found this article on Salon about how the US is an "outlier" with respect to the age qualifications the Constitution sets in order to run for federal office--25 to qualify for membership in the House of Representatives, 30 to run for the Senate, and 35 to become…

Lea Barker

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 03:45:31 +1200

You have a good idea there, Chris. Perhaps it is only a matter of time before same-sex marriages will be legal. In France, a January 2011 TNS-Sofres poll found support was 74% among those under 35 years. (From Wikipedia) That generational weighting towards support is found in many countries, including…

Chris Waugh

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 20:56:14 +1200

I can't help but think the best way would be to take the French/Chinese system of the only legally recognised union being the civil ceremony and marry it (yes, fully intended) with the NZ situation. Make it so that all legally registered unions are civil unions and open to all…

Craig Ranapia

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 19:09:32 +1200

But my immediate thought on hearing of the New York vote was that it was time for us here to just finish the job. It’s past time for marriage equality.

Quite – and what really pissed me off about that Herald column is that Nikki and Jacinda are decent people.…

R A Hurley

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 18:24:42 +1200

"I have read studies about civil unions which show they do not work. It causes chaos."

WTF!? Peer-reviewed journal articles or it didn’t happen…

Kumara Republic

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 18:05:12 +1200

Senator Grisanti is a rare bird in this day and age of culture war piggery. It also indicates the two-party duopoly in the US no longer fits today's political realities.

Russell Brown

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 17:45:58 +1200

Craig, we agreed to differ on civil unions: they seemed a useful increment to me, a way of demonstrating that the world would not not be ended by some measure of relationship equality. Something achievable then and there. I do think their impact has been overwhelmingly positive. We do have…

Rex Widerstrom

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 17:24:02 +1200

Tearing up here, too... though more out of frustration. Which is not to deny the simple power and honesty of Senator Grisanti's speech. But this is the second such example I've stumbled upon in the debate in a single State legislature in the US. The other was [[http://alloveralbany.com/archive/2011/06/14/roy-mcdonald-will-vote-yes-on-same-sex-marriage|GoP Senator Roy…

andin

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 14:46:13 +1200

From the NOM blurb
““The New York Republican Party is dysfunctional. ”

Yep irony leaps out at one. What they call dys is a long overdue new normal, it has been for a while now I’d say. The glacial pace of social change as it seems each person has to…

Jeffrey Simpson

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 13:52:24 +1200

I was moved by the way he admitted that initially he had opposed same-sex marriage for the simple reason he was raised Catholic and that was the done thing. He had never questioned or thought about it.

Public Address

Sun, 26 Jun 2011 13:52:24 +1200

Discussion from blog post.