What happens if he were to leave parliament?

...

Presumably there would be an Epsom by-election. What would happen if ACT lost it?

Would they lose the other seats too? And what would happen if NZ First won it? Would they gain their full quota?

There would indeed be an…

The news that Rodney Hide fainted (and is now returned to robust good health) caused me to speculate momentarily.

What happens if he were to leave parliament (rather than through illness, let's think about him having a Damascene moment and running away to…

1.4 first divisor still kicks the rubbish out (1 seat to ACT, 1 to Labour), though I'd imagine the Kiwi party would have grabbed a enough votes to make the margin if folk thought they had a chance at getting in

I'd be pretty sure of reasonably major changes that…

New Zealand National Party – 55 seats
New Zealand Labour Party – 41 seats
The Greens – 8 seats
New Zealand First Party – 5 seats
Māori Party – 5 seats
Act New Zealand – 4 seats
Jim Anderton's Progressive…

Who could now miss out or now be in?

See my post here. Most likely Labour will pick up one from National.

The provision is there in subsection 8, but we haven't had any real cases for that to apply to yet.

Derek Fox came with 600 or so votes in 2002...

independents don't create overhang

but a one-electorate party a la Jim Anderton could?
...
How does that work Graeme? By logic they would be an automatic overhang.

If an independent wins an electorate seat (or an electorate seat is won by a candidate from a party that does not submit…

independents don't create overhang

... but a one-electorate party a la Jim Anderton could?

linger – independents don't create overhang.

How does that work Graeme? By logic they would be an automatic overhang.

I can't see any logical connection between turnout and overhang. Overhang results when a party gets members in only through winning electorates. And you can win an electorate with a plurality, you don't need a majority.

[made up numbers]
200,000 people sign up for the Māori roll, allowing 7 Maori…

(1) Select 21 trusted Labour members with sufficient personal following to win their electorates regardless of party affiliation [yeah, I know; that's why we're in an alternative universe — possibly a Twilight Zone];

(2)…

There would be no Māori party overhang if Māori turned out at the same rate as [Pakeha]

eh? I'm sorry, but I can't see any logical connection between turnout and overhang. Overhang results when a party gets members in only through winning electorates. And you can win an electorate with…

And Māori are very poorly represented with MMP thanks to their typically low proportional lurnout, which was well recognised at the…

It's not really possible to lose votes from the Specials.

Yeah, I meant "lose, relative to other parties". Everyone will gain votes, it's a question of how much.

Basically, if Labour get more special votes than National, they pick up the 120th seat, which National loses. Because National are using…

unless they do pretty badly come specials time – have to lose about five thousand.

It's not really possible to lose votes from the Specials.

But if you have electorate seats, it's not possible to avoid that. If I win an electorate, but get no party votes, either you ignore or overrule the electorate result, or parliament no longer represents the proportionality of the party vote.

To make MMP properly proportional, you'd have to do…

If I've done my calculations right (and I'm completely unqualified, so it's possible I haven't):

1 The quotient to get within the 120 is 8129 – the 120th seat, allocated to national.
2 Missing…

kyle: many people think the evil of an overhang lies in having to increase the total size of the House, and so they seek to address the problem by capping the number of MPs at 120. This misses the real problem: disproportionality.

Yes.…

The members of the Electoral College won't vote until December 15.

So the problem is that the articles keep saying that Obama had passed the 270 EC votes needed when in fact they had only received instructions from voters indicating they should vote that way...

I guess that depends what you mean by the rule.

If you mean "if you win an electorate seat, you get your party vote share of MPs even if it's less than 5%", that would be easy to change to "you just win electorates, no list MPs for you until…

What Graeme said, and also the Electoral College do not technically have to vote in Obama (though I'm sure they will).

the electoral college has spoken and therefore Obama IS the president-elect. By whom he was elected is not the point. Whether by citizens or colleges, it doesn't matter, he is the man in waiting

The members of the Electoral College won't vote until December 15.

On this basis, Obama isn't the President-elect either.

Voters in the US elect members of the electoral college, who choose the President.

But the electoral college has spoken and therefore Obama IS the president-elect. By whom he was elected is not the point. Whether by citizens or colleges, it doesn't…

How about abolishing the threshold, but having MPs parties that don't make 5% ables to vote on general legislation, but not confidence and supply? Which would stop them having a disproportionate say in government (and stop Peter Dunne…

On this basis, Obama isn't the President-elect either.

Voters in the US elect members of the electoral college, who choose the President.

The "electors" here are most everyone over 18 who cares to vote; in the US they're the guys in the electoral college, who are themselves elected by various…

I'd love to see more people able to…

Bill & Ben get a high enough quotient to qualify for a seat. It's that simple.

(And again: no votes are ever redistributed. Every vote counts for the party it is given to, and no other)

1/120th is ~0.84% and they just broke the magic 0.5%. Even if the parties below them are redistributed evenly around the list they still wouldn't hit 0.8.

So what part of some algorithm am I missing…

How bad would that be?

Pretty bad. It means less proportionality, less representation, and more disenfranchisement for a start. Thse are precisely the things we should be striving to avoid.

Solve the problem with more democracy, not less. Abolish the threshold, and let every vote[*] count.

[*] Because someone…

Win an electorate — you're in.

No list MPs until your party has has reached 5% threshold.

Party percentages (5% and over) allocated on a proportional basis among the seats available to make 120. No overhang.

This contradicts John.

If you win an electorate, but have less than 5% of…

Win an electorate — you're in.

No list MPs until your party has has reached 5% threshold.

Party percentages (5% and over) allocated on a proportional basis among the seats available to make 120. No overhang.

How…

Pleasantly surprised with Peter Williams talking about the Prime Minister designate, and the One News Reporter I next heard, the Prime Minister to be. TV3 had elect, however.

On this basis, Obama isn't the President-elect either.

Voters in the US elect members of the electoral college, who choose the President.

IF we're going to have a threshold of 5% (or whatever) why should a party that wins one seat (ie, has a concentrated support base) be exempt?

I guess that depends what you mean by the rule.

If you mean "if you win an electorate seat, you get your party…

Wait, who was first on the Bill & Ben party list?

I'm pretty sure it was Billl.

[checks]

Yep.

Oh, and Prime Minister elect my ass.

Pleasantly surprised with Peter Williams talking about the Prime Minister designate, and the One News Reporter I next heard, the Prime Minister to be. TV3…

how few of the National voters had even considered their possible coalition options

true – especially that a combo of ACT and the likes of Lockwood Smith, McCully, Williamson et al could push National further to the right than their campaign indicated. Hide has been very critical of National in…

Cause for one, sure let's have no threshold. The other... meh, not so much.

Oh, and Prime Minister elect my ass. We do not elect the Prime Minister.

I've never really found anyone before who might like my argument about the first elected woman Prime Minister...

getting rid of the stupid electorate MP rule...

...sounds like a really good idea. Anyone know the reasoning that led to the committee recommending that feature? It seems so silly.

IF we're going to have a threshold of 5% (or whatever) why should a party that wins one seat (ie,…

much of the way government and the parliament are run has not adapted to MMP yet

Instead of a stark government/opposition dichotomy, could we get used to minority…

I suspect that the majority of voters don't really understand what an overhang is.

Probably true, Mike. I was surprised at church this morning how few of the National voters had even considered their possible coalition options, which I would have thought a more obvious question. (No idea if the…

Interesting thought, but of course some of the minor votes may have differed if there was no threshold.

Absolutely, and my fantasy blocks aren't super-likely, either; but the numbers provide an interesting throught experiment.

For completeness, at the last election, Richard Lewis of the then Destiny NZ Party would have…

I don't think one should go so far as removing the threshold, but reducing it to 2 or 3% and getting rid of the stupid electorate MP rule would mean that small issue parties that actually had a national following could get in…

Low thresholds – say 1% – encourage single issue parties, individuals with a strong local following, small religious groups and so on. And when they add up to 5 – 10% of parliament, it can be chaotic.

STV gives an effective threshold of 15 – 20%,…

Countries that have a low threshold, do they have trouble with stability? Thinking Israel here, any other examples?

The Weimar Republic electoral system didn't have a threshold, and had stability issues. There might have been some other reasons for the stability problems, though.

Countries that have a low threshold, do they have trouble with stability? Thinking Israel here, any other examples?

I suspect that the majority of voters don't really understand what an overhang is.

On the other hand, I can't help feeling…

National, ACT, United Future, Kiwi Party – 61 seats

Labour, Progressives, Greens, New Zealand First, Māori Party – 60

Bill – 1

:-)