Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: The Magic Number

Ben Austin

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 11:26:42 +1300

If random encounters in London are anything to go by then it is Obamatown

Tim Michie

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 11:23:39 +1300

In the earlier primaries, except in the closest of races, I've notived that the candidate leading between 10-20% of the votes counted is called the winner – and this has been correct.

The close race in NH was called at 70%, but Clinton had the slight lead from 10% counted.…

Graeme Edgeler

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 08:17:42 +1300

they've called Califormia for Clinton and McCain with less than a third of precincts reporting but huge leads (16 and 17 points respectively)
...
I just find it hard to believe CNN would risk getting something like this wrong after the 2000 Florida call debacle.

And though there were late…

Craig Ranapia

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 00:48:22 +1300

Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.

I find it rather interesting that the Democrats effectively have a 51st state: Democrats Abroad who have held a global primary:

The only option for Democrats until recently was for Americans living abroad to mail absentee ballot…

Kyle Matthews

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 00:34:37 +1300

Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.

From CNN:

While American Samoa participates in the Democratic and Republican nomination processes, it does not participate in the general election.

Shep Cheyenne

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 23:48:30 +1300

Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 23:37:06 +1300

And while I'd rather get blown by a shark than vote for Huckabee, the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the crapulous folks who take Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh seriously is sweet, sweet music.

Let's hope McCain announces The Huckster as his running mate on July 4, so America…

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:41:28 +1300

It will be interesting to see how they both adapt their campaign messages. With Clinton winning the most populous and most cosmopolitan states it might be a bit hard for him to continue the Hillary the great divider line.

Well, I suspect we're going to see a lot of post-Super…

Neil Morrison

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 21:32:45 +1300

cnn has total delegates as Clinton 698, Obama 588.

From what I've read that 110 difference makes things pretty tight. It's borderline for Clinton but Obama is looking to do well in the up-coming primaries.

It will be interesting to see how they both adapt their campaign messages. With Clinton…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 21:08:38 +1300

You're right Craig, they all (NBC, ABC, CNN) called California with that proportion of the precincts reporting. My guess is something like very good exit polling combined with particular bell-weather precincts, and substantial enough leads... They've certainly been careful in a number of states, not even making predictions with 98%…

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 20:05:21 +1300

OK, this is weird. I've checked in at CNN, and they've called Califormia for Clinton and McCain with less than a third of precincts reporting but huge leads (16 and 17 points respectively). Isn't that a little previous, or is there some nuance I'm missing (like their website isn't being…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:20:46 +1300

The prediction does include California. Obama staffers have been saying they'll lose California by 15 delegates. Clinton staffers have been saying they'll win by 25-34 delegates. MSNBC used the 34 number.

Neil Morrison

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:07:25 +1300

ha, the fate of the world rests with our South Pacific cousins.

AS has 6 delegates – 3 supers and 3 from the caucus. I don't know which way the supers will go.

Does that MSNBC prediction include California – it seems Clinton could win with a reasinably big margin.

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 18:58:28 +1300

Neil – you might be right.

MSNBC is predicting the delegate position after tonight as 841 Obama vs 837 Clinton.

Neil Morrison

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 15:24:50 +1300

Clinton wins American Samoa. Could be the decider.

Neil Morrison

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 15:13:44 +1300

The Imperial percentage system.

Russell Brown

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:30:56 +1300

Each state in the Democratic process is basically the same – 75% of their pledged delegation is awarded proportionally at the district level, 25% is awarded at-large across the state, and 15% is awarded to pledged PLEO delegates (yes – the Democratic Party rules actually use these percentages).

Good grief.

Public Address

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:30:56 +1300

Discussion from blog post.