Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: The Greg King Memorial Blogpost: Three Strikes, Five Years On (now retracted)

Graeme Edgeler

Sat, 26 Nov 2016 23:52:02 +1300

If the number of cases has fallen from 256 to 81, that is a fall of 68.4%, not 62%.

It's been a while since I wrote this, so am not sure the basis for my number. I think I accounted for the lower 1st strike offending (ie this is a…

David Hood

Sat, 26 Nov 2016 17:25:39 +1300

As it is about a year since this was active, while the reporting of crime has changed, I can note that, if anything, the number of unique offenders per head population for the violentish crimes above proceeding to court seems to have steadily increased (and it certainly hasn't gone down).

Ross Francis

Sat, 26 Nov 2016 16:11:58 +1300

strike crime is down in general, but the ~20% fall in strike offending is dwarfed by the ~62% fall in strike recidivism.

If the number of cases has fallen from 256 to 81, that is a fall of 68.4%, not 62%.

Graeme Edgeler

Fri, 25 Nov 2016 17:44:43 +1300

So, contrary to that press release, what would have been the man’s incentive to plead guilty?

Plead guilty so that:

1) the judge is more likely to allow him to have parole, which could knock 4 years 8 months of his sentence (the judge would "ordinarily" be required to impose…

izogi

Fri, 25 Nov 2016 17:33:44 +1300

So, contrary to that press release, what would have been the man's incentive to plead guilty?

Graeme Edgeler

Fri, 25 Nov 2016 17:12:56 +1300

It is also of note that there is no incentive for a person charged with a 3rd strike offence to plead guilty because the sentence will be exactly the same after a costly and pointless trial which exposes victims unnecessarily to the trauma of being in court.

Odd to make…

izogi

Fri, 25 Nov 2016 17:08:52 +1300

Also from the Criminal Bar Association early this afternoon:

It is barbaric and contrary to the expectations of a liberal democracy that a judge is required to impose a seven-year sentence for a crime that he or she determines should receive a one year sentence.

It is also of note…

Rosemary McDonald

Thu, 24 Nov 2016 17:16:02 +1300

Judge (and defence counsel) criticise the Three Strikes legislation as he sentences offender to seven years' jail for indecently assaulting prison officer.

I have no option but to sentence you to the maximum term of imprisonment prescribed for the offence – seven years' imprisonment. I agree that is very…

mpledger

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 12:21:52 +1300

David Hood, in reply to mpledger, A day ago

Unfortunately, that’s not really falsifiable.

It should show up in reported crime, if nothing else (unless you are positing the crimes are so crafty no one notices them, which is not likely in the case of strike offences).

But reported crime…

izogi

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 08:28:16 +1300

That's a very interesting read. With a quick search I note that The Listener also had an article last year where they interviewed Rick Nevin and added some detail for NZ's context.

Joe Wylie

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 01:41:40 +1300

he invented a machine to turn him over in bed ... and was strangled by his sheets when it malfunctioned.
Midgely's life story would make a better movie than Ed Wood.

By way of a small footnote, leaded fuel contained an acid scavenging compound to prevent the buildup of lead…

linger

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 01:26:54 +1300

The manufacturer of tetra-ethyl lead (a subsidiary of GM; commercial manufacture was subcontracted to DuPont) was well aware of the risk: the presence of lead was deliberately obscured by naming the additive simply “ethyl”. The inventor, Thomas Midgley Jr., was in 1923 hauled out to demonstrate the “safety” of TEL…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 00:18:03 +1300

Lead was banned here in 96

Lead tetraethyl was a seriously vile neurotoxin, with a very effective lobby actively overselling its spurious benefits. The phaseout in NZ only began thanks to then Minister of the Environment Phil Goff, who prevailed over Energy Minister Bob Tizard in convincing Transport Minister Prebble.…

Myles Thomas

Sat, 03 Oct 2015 23:27:57 +1300

A reason for crime rate drops apart from efficacy of strikes could be found by looking at lead in our petrol. I shit you not. Read this. http://m.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
The lag between lead being removed from petrol and crime rates dropping is 20 years – the approx peak age for offending.…

David Hood

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 15:20:55 +1300

Unfortunately, that’s not really falsifiable.

It should show up in reported crime, if nothing else (unless you are positing the crimes are so crafty no one notices them, which is not likely in the case of strike offences).

mpledger

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 14:27:34 +1300

I would look at “time served” in both periods. In the first period jails were full so things like early release happened, in the second period parole rules changed. If people are still in jail they can’t (or are less able to) commit a second strike offense.

The other thing…

Graeme Edgeler

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 01:02:05 +1300

Graeme I think you need to account for the age of the person at the time of the offences. As I understand it there is a reducing offence rate as people get older, over 30 years old. Is that a factor”

It's relevant to individual likelihood of reoffending, but not…

Kumara Republic

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 00:17:13 +1300

Again, there was mention in that Investigate Magazine link…

Andrew R266

Thu, 01 Oct 2015 21:27:40 +1300

Graeme I think you need to account for the age of the person at the time of the offences. As I understand it there is a reducing offence rate as people get older, over 30 years old. Is that a factor"

Maui Smith

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 16:24:02 +1300

It may be interesting to compare the two time periods by sentence type. Were more people in the first time period convicted of a ‘strikeable’ offence sent to prison. And out of the group sent to prison, were they more or less likely to commit a 2nd 'strikeable' offence.

David Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 15:44:24 +1300

And "Life Imprisonment" for that cluster of offences. The unusual peak in around 2010 just shows how careful you are going to need to be about date ranges, as it was about double the 2005 numbers and that is quite a lot of variation.

David Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 15:26:34 +1300

More graphs. For the cluster of offences I called “violentish” above (because within them lie the really serious ones). We know from above that the reporting rate looks flat with cycles above. Here is the conviction raw numbers for those (black line graph, rising cyclical). The imprisonment raw numbers for…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:30:12 +1300

I don’t want to be all censorious, but this post really isn’t about David Garrett, so it would be cool if people could lay off the trawl through his history.

Fair enough. But something rings hollow when those who thump down the tough-on-crime card then declare that it’s not illegal…

izogi

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:28:24 +1300

Thanks for an interesting post, Graeme. It’s always refreshing to see good attempts at digging up real numbers instead of just having people saying stuff.

A few things which come to mind:

* Is there any way to know if courts are now reacting differently when strike offences come up?…

MPH

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:21:39 +1300

There have been no third strikes, yet.

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:20:40 +1300

But that does raise quite an important point. Do your numbers account for the fact that people committing strike offences in 2005-2010 include young people under 18 years old? Again – possibly very significant impact on the results.

I was careful to limit my questions in all comparator groups to…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:19:56 +1300

In this article I can’t seem to find how many third strike convictions there were. If only the first and second are being discussed then why have three?

I believe there are yet to be any (maybe one).

The consequence of a second strike is that you aren't eligible for…

MPH

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:19:27 +1300

Offending by young people, and even those recognised by the criminal justice system as adults at 17, does not fall within the three strike regime.

People between the ages of 18 and 24 are young people as far as I am concerned. Certainly as far as cognitive development is concerned.…

Lyndon Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 14:18:21 +1300

Chris – I'm not aware of any third strike convictions, though I had the idea there were people facing it mentioned the other day.

When you think about it, you have to serve two (hopefully) reasonably serious sentences before getting a third strike.

chris

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 13:34:02 +1300

In this article I can’t seem to find how many third strike convictions there were. If only the first and second are being discussed then why have three?

David Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 12:49:08 +1300

Note: I realise I only used two years, but recidivism does seem to be a decline path that is getting pretty flat by the end of year two.

Now allowing for 2004-2009 being a natural peak, and 2009-2014 a natural trough, we should probably try and estimate if the drop…

David Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 12:02:47 +1300

Yay in general for evidence based discussions.

That said- I'm not convinced you can do a direct past/present comparison as we know the crime rate changes over time, I think the comparison needs to account for that.

Also, If I take the recorded crime stats from http://www.stats.govt.nz/tools_and_services/nzdotstat/tables-by-subject/new-zealand-recorded-crime-tables/ASOC-offence-calendar-year-statistics.aspx
and combine the…

Some Stats

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 11:51:17 +1300

Is it possible for you to write shorter posts? It's not a legal argument, it's a blog! I'd say you are at least 1000 words over here...

Otherwise, great!

Rosemary McDonald

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 11:45:21 +1300

but this post really isn’t about David Garrett, so it would be cool if people could lay off the trawl through his history.

Ah, but, this post is about methods of reducing recidivism

Ironic that the father of the 'three strikes law' is, himself, a recidivist, (to use his own…

Derrilin Webb

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:51:09 +1300

Thanks for a well reasoned post.
Did the OIA requests answers you got have any demographic information ie breakdown by age bands?
I am sceptical about the existence of much earlier programs that change behaviour, but still result in an initial offence that met the first strike criteria.
A sample…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:41:41 +1300

Young people can commit first strike offences out of sheer stupidity and impulsiveness.

Offending by young people, and even those recognised by the criminal justice system as adults at 17, does not fall within the three strike regime.

MPH

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:34:23 +1300

I don't think that it would be odd, based on what we understand about the drivers of recidivism. Young people can commit first strike offences out of sheer stupidity and impulsiveness. When they are sentenced, there will be various risk factors that indicate a tendency to re-offend. If there has…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:19:23 +1300

Finally, I think it is wrongheaded to look for the cause of reduced recidivism in programmes implemented recently. Much more likely it would be programmes implemented with children about 10-18 years before they end up in prison for the first time. That is, I would look for intervention in 1997-2005.…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:07:56 +1300

I don't want to be all censorious, but this post really isn't about David Garrett, so it would be cool if people could lay off the trawl through his history.

Rosemary McDonald

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:03:47 +1300

This David Garrett?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/6082942/I-was-a-roughneck-by-occupation-and-by-behaviour

Appearing in court on a forgery charge was hugely embarrassing, despite name suppression.

"I can still remember standing in court looking at the letter from the mother [of the dead child] in the spidery hand of an old lady and feeling like an absolute arsehole. It…

MPH

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 09:56:29 +1300

Thank you for the interesting post. As you rightly foreshadowed, people sceptical of 3 strikes (like myself) are unlikely to be convinced that you have demonstrated a specific deterrent effect though.

As always, there are a number of explanations.

One I thought I would throw out there: the combination of…

Lyndon Hood

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 09:46:16 +1300

I imagine natural variation might be high in these kind of samples but it is interesting; we are at the kind of time scale I gather is considered sensible. Also there may be some variation in time-in-prison – parole policy progressively tightening – over at least the first comaprison that'd…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 09:45:29 +1300

Bar leaner…
is this the David Garrett you are referring to
I’m guessing that this is the David Garrett you are thinking of (as am I) – he already has quite a few ‘strikes’ against his name.
It would be an extreme irony if someone had ‘stolen’ his name on…

Rosemary McDonald

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:54:55 +1300

Graeme...is this the David Garrett you are referring to?

David Garrett (9,426 comments) says:
September 24th, 2015 at 3:03 pm

**This disabled access, and toilets for the disabled has to be the biggest load of shit in the past 20-30 years, and that’s saying something.

A little straw poll: who…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:53:44 +1300

I guess one question would be what was the trend for recidivism for all offendings (not just strike offendings). Does the strike offending recidivism follow or buck the trend of general recidivism?

From memory, it's down, but not by that much. A good place to look. Thanks!

eszett

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:37:25 +1300

Now, strike crime is down in general, but the ~20% fall in strike offending is dwarfed by the ~62% fall in strike recidivism.
…
We have some data already – strike recidivism appears to be falling much faster than strike offending, so what more do we need?

I guess one…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:21:21 +1300

Comments opened :-)

Public Address

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:21:20 +1300

Discussion from blog post.