Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: Referendum Fact Check #1

Kyle Matthews

Sat, 09 Jul 2011 10:40:45 +1200

The list candidate and unsuccessful electorate candidate with the greatest number of electorate votes;
The list candidate and unsuccessful electorate candidate with the next greatest number of electorate votes;
and so on, and so forth, until there are no electorate candidates left on the party list, at which point the…

BenWilson

Mon, 04 Jul 2011 11:19:17 +1200

Yup, I doubt there will be too much "play the ball and not the man" arguments when it comes to that revelation, it will be "sub the man, and hope no one notices he was ever here". Well done, Bomber!

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 04 Jul 2011 08:45:20 +1200

He's doing a damn good job as a journalist, too.

Graeme Edgeler

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 17:45:57 +1200

Actually, I was being flippant – I wouldn’t think Bomber would be up for elected office, but maybe he feels otherwise? (They make you wear a suit, FFS)

I know.

But that doesn't mean the information in response can't be helpful.

Have you seen Bomber? He's always wearing a tie!

Daveosaurus

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 14:09:25 +1200

My suggestion of how to organise public rankings of list MPs is this:

Parties select and arrange their party lists as at present.
Voters choose their electorate MP and vote for a party list as at present.
Once final vote counts are available, list places are filled in the following…

Rich of Observationz

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 11:55:41 +1200

Actually, I was being flippant – I wouldn't think Bomber would be up for elected office, but maybe he feels otherwise? (They make you wear a suit, FFS)

Also, the Maori Party has consciously not campaigned for party votes (or pakeha votes).

Keir Leslie

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 11:34:43 +1200

I don't know how ambitious it is. The Greens have been heading away from the protest vote constituency at a rate of knots, and that would be where I'd be looking for the list votes. I don't know what or how Mana will do in general electorates.

Graeme Edgeler

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 10:27:21 +1200

What has Sykes got to do with this? Surely you mean ‘any party winning one electorate needs ~3.6 – 3.8% of the list vote to get four list MPs’.

Rich wanted John Minto, Sue Bradford and Bomber Bradbury in Parliament.

If Annette is not on the list, this needs ~2.8-3.0%.…

Phil Lyth

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 06:41:40 +1200

To put Graeme’s ~2.8%-3.0% into perspective. If Hone wins TTT again, then to get 3 list MPs, Mana has to match the Maori Party’s 2008 highwater mark of 2.39% AND increase that by roughly a quarter. Given the landscape I think that’s, um, ambitious.

Phil Lyth

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 06:31:04 +1200

What has Sykes got to do with this? Surely you mean 'any party winning one electorate needs ~3.6 – 3.8% of the list vote to get four list MPs'. Which name is ranked where may affect how many votes are attracted, but not how the seat allocation is calculated.

Graeme Edgeler

Sat, 02 Jul 2011 01:30:52 +1200

I have no idea how Hone plans to organise his list ranking, but hope we might get John Minto, Sue Bradford and Bomber Bradbury in Parliament

We should know how by the end of the month how Mana will work out their list. Parties are required to submit their list…

Keir Leslie

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 20:30:18 +1200

There are 72 million registered Democrats, for instance, and about half of them voted in the most recent primaries.

(A) first past the post; you haven't addressed the issue of complexity here, and (B) are you really putting forward Clinton/Obama as an example of party democracy? Looked to me like…

Rob S

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 17:11:18 +1200

I wouldn't say that an entity such as the US could be said to want or deserve its current set up.
I think that the US has got the system that suited it initially but now is now in need of a good shake up which possibly won't be non…

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 16:59:40 +1200

I am saying that Green members really need to lay off the unthinking propaganda about party democracy

Actually, I'm not a Green member either any more. To paraphrase Will Rogers "I belong to no organised political party. I am a Mana supporter". (and I have no idea how Hone plans…

tussock

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 16:41:33 +1200

But I am saying that Green members really need to lay off the unthinking propaganda about party democracy.
WTF? It's not "look at us, aren't we awesome", it's "when people complain about not getting a say in certain things, that's one of the Green movement's fundamental beliefs around which policy…

BenWilson

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 14:14:03 +1200

I like this idea in theory.................but, from what I've seen with the public ballots in the US it seems to wind up with people wanting mutually opposing situations where tax cuts win out over education and other fluffy social needs that are harder to sell.

Just as well the US…

Rich Lock

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 13:23:39 +1200

OTOH, if it's all about the issues, why don't we just vote directly on the issues?

Sacha

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:53:25 +1200

Quite. Democracy is not mob rule.

Rob S

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:45:32 +1200

OTOH, if it's all about the issues, why don't we just vote directly on the issues?
I like this idea in theory.................but, from what I've seen with the public ballots in the US it seems to wind up with people wanting mutually opposing situations where tax cuts win out over…

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:03:52 +1200

It isn’t so much a matter of trust as a question of scale.

The US has primaries (ok, for FPP candidates rather than list positioning) at almost all levels of the political process. There are 72 million registered Democrats, for instance, and about half of them voted in the most…

Keir Leslie

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:55:33 +1200

Voting on the list is also one area that Arrow's Theorem really is applicable.

Sacha

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:15:02 +1200

That sort of sophistication truly empowers the party membership and has turned the Labour party into the smooth, united, election-winning machine we know and love.

It burns :)

Keir Leslie

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:12:26 +1200

Yup, if you feel the membership can’t be trusted to decide the direction of a party, then having branch committees elected on a rainy Tuesday night in June, who then elect area delegates, who then make indicative nominations for regional delegates, who make non-binding recommendations subject to leadership and caucus…

BenWilson

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:11:56 +1200

Yes, wouldn't it be great to have the Tories set the tax rate and Labour spend the money? We wouldn't go bankrupt or anything...

...

Also, I suspect whoever holds Finance has an effective veto over anyone else's programs... otherwise, I like.

Yup, coordinated use of funds would be the…

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 09:49:48 +1200

Keir Leslie

Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:06:12 +1200

And if you want a say on the list, join the Green party, whose members vote on their list. Be funny if about 100,000 Nats did that one year, eh.

You know, I used to read Greenies saying things like this and ignore them, but really, you know that if…

Sacha

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 23:05:52 +1200

Andrew Geddis examines the Vote For Change campaign's key claims.

tussock

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 22:51:57 +1200

National could win Finance, but Labour could take Education, Maori Affairs going to Maori Party and Greens getting Environmental portfolios

See, in NZ, we have a parliament, and they have to vote on stuff to get it done, and if you're minister of something but have no say in it…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 16:22:02 +1200

Then the choices are allocated exactly where they are most preferred, so National could win Finance, but Labour could take Education, Maori Affairs going to Maori Party and Greens getting Environmental portfolios.

Fixed for you:

"Then the choices are allocated exactly where they are most preferred, so Partito Nazionale could…

James Butler

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 16:03:13 +1200

National could win Finance, but Labour could take Education, Maori Affairs going to Maori Party and Greens getting Environmental portfolios

I've always thought that the Greens could do more d̶a̶m̶a̶g̶e̶ good by going for Transport and Agriculture. Also, I suspect whoever holds Finance has an effective veto over anyone else's…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:51:05 +1200

Yes, wouldn't it be great to have the Tories set the tax rate and Labour spend the money? We wouldn't go bankrupt or anything...

linger

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 14:25:34 +1200

choices [could be] allocated exactly where they are most preferred, so National could win Finance, but Labour could take Education, Maori Affairs going to Maori Party and Greens getting Environmental portfolios. Close runs might end up with shared portfolios.
I rather like this suggestion.

BenWilson

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 13:23:54 +1200

Really, if we're going to turn this into a popularity contest why no just go back to high school and be done with it?

OTOH, if it's all about the issues, why don't we just vote directly on the issues? Representative democracy is always going go have elements of a…

Rich Lock

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 13:14:18 +1200

someone who seems terminally ambiguous about everything nowadays.

Maybe you are. Maybe you're not.

Craig Ranapia

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:42:47 +1200

He seems to come across as politically schizophrenic these days.

Not necessarily a bad thing – being someone who seems terminally ambiguous about everything nowadays. :) But in the end, I agree with our host: A bad argument is a bad argument, and a good one is a good one,…

BenWilson

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:14:23 +1200

-Another obvious one, you could vote for only one person, and let them decide everything. It's not really that far from how we do it now.

BenWilson

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:11:36 +1200

There's no limit to the number of possible systems that could be devised to extract the cloud wisdom of the democratic citizenry and turn it into decisions and/or leadership. There's also no guarantee any of them will come up with something that citizenry will like in the long run, because…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:08:57 +1200

Perhaps John Armstrong could stop recycling Trevor Mallard’s blog posts, and try doing some actual analysis of the arguments. You know, like those mean, nasty bloggers who make John Drinnan cry. If nothing else, a Herald columnist adding value to a public policy debate worth having would have considerable novelty…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 11:12:42 +1200

I've read the Wikipedia article on open lists and now understand, sort of (it's all in the counting).

I have thought of an alternate method. Each party holds a primary through an Electoral Commission serviced website (to avoid shenanigans). Any voter can access the site and express a preference, and…

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 23:39:30 +1200

John Armstrong is surprisingly unimpressed.

“Vote for Change looks very much like the National Party Preservation Society in drag” is a really cute line, but I really do draw a line at a newspaper whose idea of top-tier diversity and gender equity in top-tier editorial/management is "keep Tapu Misa on…

Tim Michie

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 22:42:49 +1200

As rational as anyone else.

Sacha

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 21:47:00 +1200

eh?

peterpeasant

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 21:43:57 +1200

You think journalists are capable of rational thought?

You are kidding me?

Sacha

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 21:43:28 +1200

John Armstrong is surprisingly unimpressed.

Vote for Change looks very much like the National Party Preservation Society in drag

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 20:26:08 +1200

But as a "look we get input" thing almost any method would do, however ineffective in practice.

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 20:20:26 +1200

That's not a very proportional way to re-rank a list though. And it would tend, I suspect, to mean the biggest show ponies getting elected (a bit like mayoral elections, and look at the fucktards they throw up).

Maybe some kind of us style primary might work better.

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 20:12:25 +1200

Yeah, but truly, who’s going to sit down in a polling booth and rank 50+ candidates? If we had open lists, there would need to be an opt-out and I suspect many would take it.

You don't. The voting paper looks pretty much the same as it does now: Party…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 19:19:17 +1200

Yeah, but truly, who's going to sit down in a polling booth and rank 50+ candidates? If we had open lists, there would need to be an opt-out and I suspect many would take it.

Still, I guess it would be symbolically open.

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 18:30:12 +1200

Allowing easier public input into list ranking might appeal to some voters.

Perhaps, but I really that’s for parties to determine – and be rewarded by the electorate as they see fit

The Party can write the list, but voters should get to choose who gets elected from it!

Sacha

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 18:28:54 +1200

that's for parties to determine

not in some voting systems

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 18:15:41 +1200

Allowing easier public input into list ranking might appeal to some voters.

Perhaps, but I really that's for parties to determine — and be rewarded by the electorate as they see fit in the only poll that really counts — not the legislature.

Lyndon Hood

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 15:53:21 +1200

I think the orange man has been following the same media Graeme has.

BenWilson

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:32:54 +1200

It isn't accurate to say that MMP doesn't / won't maximise Maori representation.

That's one of the things I like about it. It would be awesome if the Maori party really back themselves enough to keep seeing it that way.

Phil Lyth

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:27:17 +1200

Ben, I suspect you are confusing Maori electorate seats and Maori representation.

Farrar identified 23 current Maori MPs in April. And yet there are only seven Maori electorate seats. It isn't accurate to say that MMP doesn't / won't maximise Maori representation.

I think it is fair to say…

Sacha

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:27:14 +1200

get off your fraking arse and get involved in the party's candidate selection and list ranking process

Reliance on that in an age of declining civic particpation is perhaps MMP's major weakness. Allowing easier public input into list ranking might appeal to some voters.

Sacha

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:23:39 +1200

If our larger parties would allow themselves to divide into more representative sections, as has already happened in part with the Labour party, there would be less dog for a tail to wag and it certainly couldn't have so much perceived influence so easily.

Would also help if journalists stoped…

BenWilson

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:13:52 +1200

I would bet that we won't.

I'll take your easy money, Fast Edgy. It may well be that they simply haven't thought it through yet. It would border on remiss of them not to take the option that maximizes Maori representation. If they didn't, my respect would rise considerably (although…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 12:40:31 +1200

Labour leads on the party vote in most (all?) the Maori Party held seats. Possibly the voters only vote for the MaoriNats because they can hedge their bets and party vote Labour? If they had only an electorate vote, it might go back to the Labour candidate.

Mike Graham

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 12:09:22 +1200

...Sandra was right to point this out and it was a misrepresentation of her argument to say that she was somehow getting off topic.

Gavin – agreed. To me it seemed that Jordan realised that his example was totally flawed so quickly tried to shut-down the discussion on the point…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 11:44:07 +1200

anyone want to place bets that we’ll hear significant support from the Maori Party for whichever system seems likely to allocate the most guaranteed Maori seats?

I would bet that we won't. The Maori Party appears to support MMP and has for a while, despite MMP resulting in the fewest…

Tim Michie

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:47:12 +1200

Of course, if you really think Party X. is (ab)using their list as an insurance scheme for useless incumbents the solution isn't to change the electoral system. In the short term, don't support them with your party vote. In the mid- and long-term, get off your fraking arse and get…

BenWilson

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:39:42 +1200

I don't particularly care. Their arguments are either good or bad. Their statements are either factual or not.

I do. It's always good to know the motivations behind people who mount major campaigns of any kind. Why do they care so much?

Of course the arguments they make are vital…

Phil Lyth

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:14:02 +1200

I pointed it out in my written submission on the bill. And in my oral submission.

Must remember to get up before I go to bed, if I ever want to be ahead of Edgler.

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:08:33 +1200

I haven’t been following this closely over the last few months, but it seems Parliament has made two contradictary statements in Schedule 2 of the Electoral Referendum Act.

They have.

And I pointed it out in my written submission on the bill. And in my oral submission.

[And in comment…

Phil Lyth

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:55:59 +1200

Put it another way: if Parliament back in 1993 had put a constraint of a fixed number of electorates on MMP (say 65, in the same way it has said 90 for SM) while keeping the principles for South Island and Maori seats, then over time there would be considerably…

Phil Lyth

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:42:10 +1200

Parliament has already declared that if we adopt Supplementary Member as our voting system, it will have 90 electorate MPs and 30 list MPs

I haven't been following this closely over the last few months, but it seems Parliament has made two contradictary statements in Schedule 2 of the Electoral Referendum…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:37:21 +1200

if you really think Party X. is (ab)using their list as an insurance scheme for useless incumbents the solution isn't to change the electoral system. In the short term, don't support them with your party vote. In the mid- and long-term, get off your fraking arse and get involved in…

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 08:38:02 +1200

and which actually gives constituents a nice range of people to turn to for help if they need it

A fair point, as far as it goes. But I don’t think that’s entirely fair to most MPs, who actually take their constituency duties pretty seriously and view them in an…

Tim Darlington

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 06:27:15 +1200

My favourite, that I've seen twice now, is that MMP has given us Hone Harawira – an electorate MP...

gavin long

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 02:29:33 +1200

1. I believe you missed a mistake. Jordan Williams suggests that Sandra Grey is "turning it into a political debate" when she says that National hasn't decided to entrench the Maori seats even though they have a confidence and supply agreement with Maori party.

Her point wasn't about politics it…

izogi

Wed, 29 Jun 2011 01:06:50 +1200

Also repeated references to the tail wagging the dog under MMP. The only reason this can supposedly happen is because we still have two large parties that remain addicted to a polarised FPP system and refuse to work together in what would seem to be a natural MMP way, probably…

Sacha

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 23:29:54 +1200

the supposedly grassroots “Vote for Change”

Two posts looking at their constitution registered with the Societies Office:

Mike Smith at Te Standard.

But re the Committee Rules 6.1 and 6.2 say:

__The Society shall be managed by a Committee comprising not less than two or more than five members of…

Graeme Edgeler

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 23:23:01 +1200

Repeatedly referring to electoral MPs ‘sneaking back into parliament on the list’ when they’d been legally elected in fair, very public elections was a cheap concerted attempt to smear MMP.

And saying that FPP and SM are undemocratic is an attempt to smear those systems.

They are non-proportional systems. That…

Graeme Edgeler

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 23:12:16 +1200

One thing that annoys me is that opponents of MMP also seem to want to get rid of a system whereby those not voted in on the electorate vote ‘come back in again by the back door’ meaning they come to parliament on the list. In Ohariu, for example, ...…

Mike Graham

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 22:59:15 +1200

thanks Graeme. I only heard the brief interview, not the debate, so I'm guessing it was in that part.

Rob Stowell

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 22:58:49 +1200

Repeatedly referring to electoral MPs ‘sneaking back into parliament on the list’ when they’d been legally elected in fair, very public elections was a cheap concerted attempt to smear MMP.
I’d like to know who is doing the PR for the supposedly grassroots “Vote for Change”, what their PR budget…

Hilary Stace

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 22:35:35 +1200

One thing that annoys me is that opponents of MMP also seem to want to get rid of a system whereby those not voted in on the electorate vote 'come back in again by the back door' meaning they come to parliament on the list. In Ohariu, for example, Peter…

Graeme Edgeler

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 22:32:08 +1200

I would like someone to ask Jordan Williams (the ONLY spokesman for Vote for Change according to their website) what he thought of the situation in the UK after the last election

Morning Report pretty much did.

He pointed out that it was a rare occurrence. Which it is.

Mike Graham

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 22:17:09 +1200

I would like someone to ask Jordan Williams (the ONLY spokesman for Vote for Change according to their website) what he thought of the situation in the UK after the last election- i.e. the 3rd placed party almost in a position that NZ First were in in 1995, and even…

Graeme Edgeler

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 21:30:07 +1200

Sorry, I forgot to turn on comments. I've fixed it now.

Public Address

Tue, 28 Jun 2011 21:30:07 +1200

Discussion from blog post.