Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special Votes

Dennis Frank

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 17:19:08 +1300

Thanks, Stephen. If he has no local ties and didn't spend much time campaigning locally that would explain it.

Thanks also Hilary: that would incline many voters to view him as lacking empathy for those victims, and some to conclude that his political judgement was sufficiently flawed to make him…

Hilary Stace

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 16:39:06 +1300

The Labour candidate and new MP is Paul Eagle who was the deputy mayor. He was a very popular Labour city councillor. But Annette King did work hard at securing the electorate as a Labour one. As has Grant Robertson in Wellington Central who won the party vote for the…

Stephen R

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 14:49:16 +1300

The Rongotai party vote ran Labour 44%, National 28%, Green 18%, TOP 5%, NZF 4%. Seems quite a hefty bias here against the cabinet minister Chris Finlayson. Have the locals have been irritated by all those treaty claim settlements he has masterminded resolution of? Peculiar. Why punish someone who is…

Hilary Stace

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 14:09:17 +1300

Not all historical wrongs. He has been one of strongest forces against inquiry into historic abuse of children in state care.

Dennis Frank

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 09:56:48 +1300

Why criticise the voters of Nelson, or the Labour or the Green parties, for failing to irritate voters by withdrawing candidates who'd show up to meetings and campaign for their respective party votes, and perhaps whom those voters might really want to vote for?

Yeah, sometimes playing devil's advocate is…

Dennis Frank

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 09:32:50 +1300

Hayley Holt looks to be the second-highest polling Green candidate after Matt Lawrey, presumably due to having a high public profile as television presenter & sportswoman. She got 18% of the candidate vote in Helensville (National 57%, Labour 20%, NZF 6%).

Party vote there was N 56%, L 25%, G & NZF…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 09:01:18 +1300

I struggle to imagine him announcing it jointly.
I had a vision…

Live on the telly…
spotlit against encroaching darkness
Winston Peters flanked
by Jacinda/James (a sinister duo)
and Bill (life with dexter )…

a drum roll

…aaaand the winnner is:

Winston high-fives Jacinda
spins and and…

izogi

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 22:58:21 +1300

I wonder if Winston will announce it alone, or jointly with the leader of the majority party in it?

I struggle to imagine him announcing it jointly. Everyone would know, and broadcast, what he'd decided before he had a chance to say it himself. Unless he were planning to really…

tussock

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 17:47:32 +1300

Cheers, linger (p3). Apparently I was comparing the final count with the projected final count, in which the left did a bit better than projected. Duh. :)

It's a pretty solid result for the left, and for the right. Very similar turnout for both as 1996 (~34% of enrolled voters…

linger

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 17:05:01 +1300

Maori party candidates tended to outpoll the Maori party vote, for the very practical reason that winning an electorate was the only chance the Maori party ever had of getting any representation at all. In their case the party vote would determine how many extra list candidates could come in…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 16:53:00 +1300

In Waiariki the party votes went as follows: Labour 58%, Maori 19%, NZF 7%, National 5%, Greens 4%, TOP 3%, ALCP/Mana/informals each 1%. I've been rounding off to the nearest whole number and the sum here is 99%, yet there's a notable discrepancy when we look at the candidate vote.…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 15:44:19 +1300

The Te Tai Tonga party votes went Labour 56%, National 12%, Maori/Greens/NZF each got 8%, TOP 4% & ALCP 1%.

The candidate votes in that Maori electorate went L 43%, G 24%, M 20%, ALCP 7% (apparently no other party stood candidates – see http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/electorate-details-70.html).

Looks like substantial personal endorsements for…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 14:19:01 +1300

they didn't expect to win any one electorate

I saw James Shaw saying on the tv news that they were hoping to win Nelson, more than once. Let's see how that went.

Labour won the party vote: 41% to National 39%, Greens 7%, NZF 6%, TOP 3%. Nick Smith won…

Graeme Edgeler

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 14:13:24 +1300

James Shaw got 15% of the vote in Wellington Central, where the GP even got 21% of the party vote. So 6% of voters in that electorate were green voters who voted against the leader of the Greens. Any one of them who reads this, please explain your rationale!

They…

linger

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 12:53:14 +1300

Nobody should have to explain their own vote (secret ballot and all, innit); but this is not a surprising result at all, surely. The Greens were transparent about campaigning for the party vote, not the electorate vote; and they didn't expect to win any one electorate, so it would be…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 11 Oct 2017 12:46:20 +1300

the real election result

Ain't all over till the volumetrically-challenged woman sings, as they'd say if they were pc-driven. But I agree with your point.

The real election result emanated from the EC, but only in respect of the final tallies in the electorates. Many of us view the real…

simon g

Tue, 10 Oct 2017 01:30:20 +1300

One of the irritating – and downright misleading – aspects of the special votes (or rather, media coverage thereof) is that we get a flurry of pseudo-analysis of "How we voted" in the days immediately after election night, all of it based on incomplete data.

Then when we finally have…

Joe Wylie

Tue, 10 Oct 2017 01:02:17 +1300

I haven't seen much about the 1st MMP government with Winston and Jim (Bolger, not Anderton) – and later Jenny, who kicked out Winston and went downhill from there.
Wayne Mapp gives it a bit of a go. While he pretty much confines his experience of having been there to…

Kumara Republic

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 23:57:22 +1300

Last night's RNZ Mediawatch episode tried to do some tracing of where the National Green coalition story came from.

Latest I've seen on Twitter is that Matthew Hooton has purged his Twitter account.

That aside, I haven't seen much about the 1st MMP government with Winston and Jim (Bolger, not…

Joe Wylie

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 10:56:33 +1300

Last night's RNZ Mediawatch episode tried to do some tracing of where the National Green coalition story came from.

Of course no-one's been paid to beat this story up. A Nat's 'n Greens combo is as natural as peanut butter and ice cream. And there's not a shred of evidence,…

izogi

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 05:49:40 +1300

Last night's RNZ Mediawatch episode tried to do some tracing of where the National Green coalition story came from.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/201861254/turning-up-the-noise-on-an-unlikely-teal-deal

izogi

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 05:45:33 +1300

media coverage over the last fortnight has found an abundance of “Are we there yet?” opinion pieces, and a dearth of “Here’s where there might be” informed calculations. I’d like to have heard less from the bored kids in the back seat of the car, and more from an adult…

Trevor Nicholls

Sun, 08 Oct 2017 23:28:17 +1300

I don't think it's ignorance. It's spin doctoring. It's trying to put another column on record for the idea that National still has a moral authority to be the government.

simon g

Sun, 08 Oct 2017 16:44:24 +1300

Now Robinson's nonsense is the Herald's home page.

And we wonder why public ignorance is so widespread.

linger

Sun, 08 Oct 2017 15:25:41 +1300

As for "Labour [...] holding out hope for [...] govern[ing] alone with New Zealand First" —WTF Claire, were you paying no attention whatsoever during the election campaign?

simon g

Sun, 08 Oct 2017 14:42:23 +1300

More uninformed expertise:

Claire Robinson decides that Labour must have been hoping for a mathematical miracle, from 17% of the total votes.

They didn’t pick up the number of special votes they hoped for. They can’t govern alone with the Greens. More importantly, they can’t govern alone with New Zealand…

linger

Sat, 07 Oct 2017 18:40:26 +1300

Um. NZF went from 162,988 total votes before specials to 186,706 after specials. If they'd really failed to get any more votes over the 15% of specials, they'd have lost a seat or two. I think you accidentally compared the NZF preliminary total with the Greens’ final total.

tussock

Sat, 07 Oct 2017 18:20:10 +1300

So, uh, NZ First lost 675 votes after specials were counted. Difference of opinion in what counts as a clear intention to vote for a party? I guess a lot got excluded in the official count for everyone and they just didn't get many specials to top it back up.

linger

Sat, 07 Oct 2017 15:41:28 +1300

Moral of story: observation-based persistence forecasting can work out pretty well. Certainly more reliable than fantasy scenarios.

simon g

Sat, 07 Oct 2017 15:30:32 +1300

Well done, Graeme.

My thoroughly unscientific sampling of media coverage over the last fortnight has found an abundance of "Are we there yet?" opinion pieces, and a dearth of "Here's where there might be" informed calculations. I'd like to have heard less from the bored kids in the back seat…

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 21:25:06 +1300

can you please persuade your writers to read over their material before they hit Send?
First world problems ...
Most writers are not the best proofreaders of their own copy at the best of times – I doubt that Public Address can afford on-call proofreaders,and its contributors are usually doing…

Gregor Ronald

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 20:33:49 +1300

"This meant they closed the gap with National a little, but that wasn’t enough for them to take a seat off another seat off them." – can you please persuade your writers to read over their material before they hit Send?

Katharine Moody

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 16:04:12 +1300

Another take on it is that the equivalent of 102 seats have already been allocated by votes already counted, and there are effectively another 18 seats still up for grabs – to be decided by specials (at 21k votes per seat). Seems more promising for the left when viewed from…

dave stewart

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 13:04:41 +1300

izogi

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 12:19:15 +1300

The third main recommendation of the review was that consideration be given to indexing the number of list seats to electorate seats, which would mean the number of MMPs grew over time (unless population dropped).

That recommendation very rarely seems to be discussed as far as I can tell, but…

Jason Kemp

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 11:18:45 +1300

So back in 2012 there was a referendum on MMP. Dropping the target % from 5% down to 4% was one of the recommendations. Getting rid of the overhang etc. was also in there.

From memory none of the recommendations were adopted. Is that the case and if the proposed…

izogi

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 11:13:51 +1300

Do you mean the Supplementary Member system, which was rejected as one of the alternative options in Part B of the 2011 MMP referendum?

National was promoting Supplementary Member, probably because it has a big advantage right now in winning local electorates (lots of vote-splitting happening on the other side),…

Bart Janssen

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 11:04:12 +1300

I don’t understand how that works. Dont the smaller party's get any?

What linger said.

yes the smaller parties theoretically get some of the benefit but say for this election 46% of those votes go to National 36% go to Labour and the others get the scraps.

More specifically the…

linger

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 09:50:13 +1300

More accurately, the non-excluded parties. Even ACT is in the calculations, though at 0.5% it won't get any extra seat out of it.

But suppose instead they'd got 1.22%. They'd still (initially) get no list seats; but they'd be just below the cutoff, and rescaling by 100/96 would be just…

linger

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 09:48:26 +1300

Though admittedly even the votes that do go towards determining parliamentary seats express little detail about actual voter opinion! (E.g. right now it'd be nice to know how many wanted NZF as part of government, and with which partner(s)...)

Bart Janssen

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 09:33:05 +1300

But then we add that back into the calculation.

No, we add it back to the big parties. The actual opinions of those voters has been discarded.

John Farrell

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 09:29:01 +1300

Something like that was offered in the first MMP referendum – Supplementary Member.

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 09:10:19 +1300

I wonder if there is an appetite for changing the MMP distribution to make Electorate seats one total, and then the balance of the seats are allocated along Party Vote percentages – that would seem to better reflect the will of the people ?

Or am I missing something?

linger

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 08:40:28 +1300

we add that back into the calculationAgain, a misleading phrase. The information in those votes is irretrievably lost, it does nothing to change the proportions of members in Parliament. The proportions for the non-excluded parties merely get re-scaled to a total of 100% (and the SLAF essentially determines where the…

Jason Kemp

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 08:12:07 +1300

We lament people not voting, yet we effectively flush 5 MP’s worth of votes!

But then we add that back into the calculation. I'm not clear whether this is before or after the special votes have been counted though?

"the parties not reaching the threshold have been disregarded the percentage…

izogi

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 07:23:29 +1300

Yup. I split my vote in Ohariu this year, but it wasn’t with intended strategy of helping TOP. It was a genuine belief that Jessica Hammond Doube was simply a much better candidate than a disgruntled Labour candidate whose main strategy had been to cruise through on a culture of…

Craig Ranapia

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 23:57:48 +1300

My friend who lives in an area with a National MP says you can see the MP's secretary if you make an appointment but it is impossible to see the MP himself.

Can we just be gracious enough to say there are a lot of constituency MPs on all sides…

Hilary Stace

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 21:48:38 +1300

I wonder if this is also because the local Labour electorate MP is often known for doing a good job helping constituents. For example, Grant Robertson has a busy central Wellington office with very helpful staff and it is also easy to get an appointment to see him if you…

Glen Koorey

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 21:33:14 +1300

I think it might be in certain seats where there is a list candidate from another party who doesn't need the electorate vote. Not sure how the calculations work in that case but suspect an overhang might be the result. Does anyone know.

In Maungakiekie for example RADHAKRISHNAN, Priyanca could…

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 17:12:04 +1300

Correlation between age and TOP support is not high enough to support a bias of the size required to get TOP over 5%. Main finding is that half of TOP support came from disaffected Green voters (disproportionally removing the younger, more educated, professional end of that support), which may mean…

Katharine Moody

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 16:55:54 +1300

Curveball possibilties?

No 1 very interesting. Here's a statistical analysis of TOP voters;

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=4785

No idea how valid it might be.

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 16:28:46 +1300

4% of wasted votes […] go back into the pool for seat recalculation
That seems a potentially misleading way of putting it: aren’t they simply ignored (so it’s the proportions of the “unwasted” votes that determine makeup of Parliament, just scaled by 100/96)?

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 16:09:02 +1300

Why the fascination with electorates?

I think it is a relic of the past. I was thinking besides the 15% of special votes there is the 4% of wasted votes that go back into the pool for seat recalculation. I'm sure that is included in the calculations but easy to…

simon g

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 16:01:30 +1300

That's true in isolation, of course. But there's a wider context: Labour don't want to be confined to a fortress in 4 main cities. They held seats like Rotorua, New Plymouth and Taupo when they were in government. There are longer-term knock-on effects.

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 15:57:32 +1300

Why the fascination with electorates?

I know the "exciting battle for Waikekemukau South" gives pundits something to go on about, but they make as much difference to the end result as who wins Potsdam Süd.

simon g

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 15:57:02 +1300

In Auckland Central I voted for Helen White (Labour), which I suppose was also a vote to put Nikki Kaye back on the list, and deprive somebody else (Nicola Willis?) of their spot.

In Ohariu I would also have indirectly voted for Helen White of Auckland, by not voting for…

SteveH

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 15:39:36 +1300

In Maungakiekie for example RADHAKRISHNAN, Priyanca could have won if Chloe Swarbrick who is on the Green list had asked voters to give their electorate vote to Labour. Would it have made an overall difference to the total of electorate + party vote – I'm not sure.

Priyanca Radhakrishnan was…

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:55:56 +1300

I was just out in New Lynn. Deborah Russell got that but many first gen voters didn't vote for her while they liked Cunliffe. So yes electorate representation is still a thing. I'm in Mt Albert so I split my vote and if I had been in Maungakiekie or another…

tussock

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:48:25 +1300

*electorate, not electoral. Hehe.

Greens in most places were campaigning for Party Vote only, there's not all of the Green party voters would prefer the Labour candidate even when the greens leave out a candidate (as they did against Peter Dunne which saw him give up the contest). From what…

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:47:14 +1300

It was great to see Corin Dann suggesting that the 5% threshold should be lowered.

In 2012 that was one of 5 key recommendations “The one electorate seat threshold should be abolished (and if it is, the provision for overhang seats should also be abolished);
The party vote threshold should…

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:30:05 +1300

Thanks Martin. I don't think they would all go to Labour but significant that an extra 5% in the specials this time around.

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:28:30 +1300

I don’t think that the electoral vote is a big deal.

tussock

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 14:13:00 +1300

I don't think that the electoral vote is a big deal. National voters will vote for a local Labour electorate candidate, and Labour voters will vote for a local National electorate candidate, because you can.

If the Labour party had 46% to National's 36%, the blue bars would be grouped…

Jim Cathcart

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:57:26 +1300

Just working up some magic words ideas. Housing crisis – housing market- realestate bubble- um, snakes and ladders?

Bubble economics. Very few NZers are aware of it, including politicians from all parties.

View from across the ditch:

__"Assuming National earn a fourth term, watch on as housing, infrastructure and living…

Emma Hart

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:46:40 +1300

First, which electorate candidates outperformed their party’s party vote.

So I've really noticed this in Chch, including counting votes for East, Central and Port Hills where people have voted National for party and Labour for candidate. My first reaction was that maybe National should be standing less waste-of-space candidates.

Also,…

dave stewart

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:19:10 +1300

Curveball possibilties?:

1) TOP reach 5%? They'd need about 80k of specials to get there. Which is about 21% of all specials. A big chunk of specials are thought to be first time voters who enrolled when they voted, and TOP did appear to be popular with youngsters ..... Unlikely,…

Russell Brown

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 12:14:43 +1300

An interesting analysis from Jonathan Marshall on Twitter.

First, which electorate candidates outperformed their party’s party vote. Then the same, with Labour + Greens combined, to try and winkle out the proportion that was simple vote-splitting on the left. Still pretty stark.

Martin Roberts

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 11:27:41 +1300

I think that you have a point, Jason, but roughly repeating Graeme's calculations with just 300k specials and then piling the remaining 84k all onto Labour only moves one more seat across from National.

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 11:11:16 +1300

As previously noted, up to 10% of the population officially counted as eligible voters may actually know themselves not to be eligible, or truly not be involved enough in NZ society (yet/currently) to want to vote. So 90% may be the effective maximum possible.
Recent immigrants (within last 3 years):…

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 09:44:01 +1300

The more I think about it the more 15% of the vote total in specials looks to be the real story of this election. Of course it will take 2 weeks to find out but that is a large block .

It was 300,000 special votes in 2014 and 384,000…

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 09:27:38 +1300

So the youthquake came in at 0.9%.

May be much more. Many of those votes were likely to be specials. And with specials at 15% of the vote total there could well be a few surprises.

Jason Kemp

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 09:14:23 +1300

Does appear to be a low voter turn out.

"Voter turnout for the 2017 General Election is estimated to be 78.8% of those enrolled as at 6pm Friday 22 September. This compares with a final 77.9% turnout of those enrolled in 2014. "

So up by only 1% despite a…

tussock

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 01:50:14 +1300

There's some fairly new science to it, Curia runs it for National, turns out you can just say certain things and get a fair chunk of people to change their opinion. You test a bunch of things to say, on people of one opinion, and count how many of them…

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 00:39:06 +1300

I have spent the last day trying to explain the results to my colleagues in Japan in terms of “Well, we don’t know yet, but the most likely outcome seems to be that the Lying Bastard Party will try to form a coalition with the Racist Party. … Yes, I…

Caleb D'Anvers

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 00:03:42 +1300

The US has infiltrated us. Hearing the suspect truthiness and responding “La la la la not listening”.

Yeah. I was thinking something along the same lines reading this utterly sick-making apologia from Simon Wilson in the Spinoff:
Now we know what it takes to win.
[…]
… just lie. But…

Jim Cathcart

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 20:39:53 +1300

Yes, poor choice of word on my part. What I was trying to point out is that I don't think it is prudent to predict directional trends from these kind of data sets, unless there is a strong argument to do so.

Carl Anderson

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 20:22:49 +1300

I don't think it is fair to call it deceptive. Graeme has been upfront about the method he used, and acknowledged its limitations, so how is he deceiving anyone?

Dennis Frank

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 19:30:22 +1300

So the youthquake came in at 0.9%. Kinda like a tsunami coming in here six inches high after travelling across the Pacific. The Couldn't Care Less Party measures 21.2%, coming third after National & Labour. No point voting when the same old shit happens regardless who wins, eh?

Kumara Republic

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 18:21:16 +1300

According to the Electoral Commission, total turnout after special votes are counted is around 78.8%. Good by global standards, but NZ really should aim for 80-90%.

__Voter turnout for the 2017 General Election is estimated to be 78.8% of those enrolled as at 6pm Friday 22 September. This compares with…

Jim Cathcart

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 17:13:21 +1300

Probably a bit deceptive to to base predictive "modelling" on something as crude as past movements across one sample set, unless there is a good assumption to support why.

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 16:15:24 +1300

I also note that Nicky Wagner never covered up the large picture of her face and National logo outside her electoral office (Kilmore St, Chchch) on Saturday…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 16:13:47 +1300

the party donation electoral returns;
I’d be interested to know if National paid to hire Sky City venue for ‘faux victory’ bash last night…

tussock

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 15:54:56 +1300

So, roughly, Greens will need ...
2 – 6% of specials to hold at 7.
7 – 11% of specials to gain an 8th. <- expected.
12 – 17% of specials to gain a 9th too. <- hmm.
18% of specials to make 10 seats.

Labour will need ...
34 – 39% of specials to hold at 45.
40 – 44% of specials to gain a 46th. <- expected.
45% of specials to gain a 47th too.

Labour-Green are somewhat inversely correlated, so it's hard to see +3 seats between them unless first time voter turnout was way up.

National needs ...
30 – 34% of specials to scrape 55. <- hmm.
35 – 39% of specials to stop on 56. <- expected.
40 – 44% of specials to manage 57.
45% of specials to hold at 58. <- No.

And for completeness ...

NZF needs ...
3 – 7% of specials to hold 9. <- Yes.
8% of specials to get a 10th. <- No.

ACT needs ...
0 – 5% of specials to hold 1. <- Yes.

Katharine Moody

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 13:26:11 +1300

The other really interesting stats I'll be keen to see are the party donation electoral returns;

http://www.elections.org.nz/parties-candidates/registered-political-parties/party-donations/party-donations-year/2014-party

I suspect the winner last night were the individual donors across all the opposition parties, many of whom likely donated to more than one opposition party.

They, I suspect won the majority of…

simon g

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 13:22:31 +1300

Thanks for doing this, Graeme.

A point overlooked by many of the talking heads is that numbers can and do change during a term. Parties break up (NZ First, Alliance in the first two MMP terms), parties are formed when MPs break away (the Maori Party, Mana), individuals leave parties…

Ross Mason

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 13:08:31 +1300

The US has infiltrated us. Hearing the suspect truthiness and responding "La la la la not listening".

EB: "Graeme, I admire your dedication to the cause!"
Lost was it?

Carl Anderson

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 12:42:45 +1300

Graeme I admire your dedication to the cause!

Graeme Edgeler

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 12:36:12 +1300

FYI I believe the next person on the Labour list is Angie Warren Clark, not Helen White.

So do I. I blame the fact it was 4:30 when I finished.

Graeme Edgeler

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 12:31:22 +1300

Does appear to be a low voter turn out.

Pretty high in world terms, and up on last time it seems. Almost 80%!

linger

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 12:14:29 +1300

Well, if we're indulging in wild speculation, imagine this far-fetched scenario: Winston chooses to remain outside government, leaving National scrambling to make an agreement with the Greens. That'd be an entertaining three years.

Tom Semmens

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 12:11:27 +1300

I have nothing against the others, but I would really like to see Golriz Ghahraman in parliament.

I wouldn't, but only because such a talent would be largely wasted twiddling her thumbs in the Greens and she needs to be snaffled by Labour and given a high list place next…

Carl Anderson

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 11:04:37 +1300

FYI I believe the next person on the Labour list is Angie Warren Clark, not Helen White.

Ian Tinkler

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 11:00:14 +1300

Does appear to be a low voter turn out. I made a few guesses on specials and concluded the same seat changes as Graeme. Though my percentages vary a little different.

linger

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 10:56:13 +1300

How about effects of special votes on electorate results that could affect the overall makeup of Parliament? The Maori electorates typically have more specials, so might still be in play (though since specials tend to favour both Labour and Maori, I'd guess a meaningful shift in the overall result would…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 10:33:37 +1300

I still don't get why the print edition of the SST has National's tally at 1.2 million – and they don't seem to have the Party Vote tally anywhere, yet have a page showing all the electorate results – do they not understand MMP – or is it me?

Barry97

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 10:11:47 +1300

I have nothing against the others, but I would really like to see Golriz Ghahraman in parliament.

Public Address

Sun, 24 Sept 2017 10:11:47 +1300

Discussion from blog post.