Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: Election #11: Notings

James Butler

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:57:54 +1300

I think you’ll see once the split votes stats come through that Green voters tend to be a lot more tactical than Labour voters.

That's almost certainly down to the Greens not seriously contesting electorate seats.

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:51:30 +1300

As I've said before, there isn't any reason to vote split in most electorates (the usual suspects excepted). That's a benefit of MMP, you can vote for the candidate/party you actually agree with on both the electorate and party vote.

Ok, if you feel strongly that one or both of…

Greg Dawson

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:35:07 +1300

I realise some Green voters hate Labour as much as National/Act/UF. I just wonder whether it’s still not getting through that vote splitting is fine.

I think you'll see once the split votes stats come through that Green voters tend to be a lot more tactical than Labour voters.

Richard Aston

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:06:05 +1300

there could be an argument for not only no threshhold, but also for informals to count as ‘None of the Above’: ie the seat does not get allocated.
Might be an incentive for more people to turn out.
I think the idea of a "none of the above" vote is…

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:59:25 +1300

typo at # 2., I think you mean “or” not “of”.

fixed.

Lilith __

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:17:21 +1300

Graeme: typo at # 2., I think you mean "or" not "of".

Sacha

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:50:27 +1300

for informals to count as 'None of the Above': ie the seat does not get allocated.

I like that idea for the electorate vote. Automatic byelection in that seat until the parties put up a candidate the locals like enough to vote for.

Phil Lyth

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:40:51 +1300

Looking at the relative votes for Maori, Mana, ACT, party informal, and United (31k, 24k, 23k, 19k, and 13k), there could be an argument for not only no threshhold, but also for informals to count as 'None of the Above': ie the seat does not get allocated.

Might be an…

merc

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:35:29 +1300

Got to give Key credit for jamming home the differences. Labour is stale, simple. Key never takes his eyes off his competitor, and he gives out clues. Remember he said that Labour totally underestimated him? Remember the debates with Cullen? Remember he was very wary of engaging with Clarke in…

Sacha

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:14:28 +1300

still up for a promotion

Vote for stability and continuity, says Key.

If everyone does the same thing the whole time, I think it has a stale feel to it and I don't want that.

Phil Lyth

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:14:21 +1300

The local returning officer will have been damn careful.

And the party scrutineers will have good info on exactly how many and which voting papers are in dispute (although thanks to the black sticker system, not whose votes they are.)

Phil Lyth

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:11:44 +1300

Back. There were 19,874 informal party votes – you could argue 'None of the Above' soundly beat United, and came within 5,000 votes of both Act and Mana.

53,344 informal candidate votes. In individual electorates, informal candidate votes ranged from 1.5x to well over 5x the informal party votes. Some…

Joe Wylie

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:00:33 +1300

No worries. She's still up for a promotion.
A good Judas goat is hard to find.

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:57:57 +1300

No worries. She’s still up for a promotion.

Don't be a party pooper, let me have my 'fun'.

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:56:11 +1300

What is your predictions on the Judicial recounts ? In your experience do they change the result?

I don't have experience of this, but I very much doubt there will be a difference. The local returning officer will have been damn careful. Unless the standard for divining voter intent is…

Russell Brown

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:47:53 +1300

I predicted here a few months ago that Paula Bennett would lose her electorate seat and so it has came to pass…just.

No worries. She's still up for a promotion.

Richard Aston

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:45:35 +1300

Thanks Graeme ,
What is your predictions on the Judicial recounts ? In your experience do they change the result?

Phil Lyth

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:42:06 +1300

Lefties really need to learn how to vote strategically.

It's a heroic assumption to think that everyone would vote Goldsmith (or Chauvel) if Parker / Hay (or Hughes) had not been on the ballot paper.

Interesting to note (I haven't pulled the numbers yet) that the candidate informal votes were…

Joshua Arbury

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:36:50 +1300

Fair point on semantics Graeme.

I realise some Green voters hate Labour as much as National/Act/UF. I just wonder whether it's still not getting through that vote splitting is fine.

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:31:29 +1300

Lefties really need to learn how to vote strategically.

I think you mean tactically. Who's to say they weren't voting strategically?

Joshua Arbury

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:28:39 +1300

Also interesting too see that if everyone who voted Garth Hughes had voted for Chauvel then he would have won Ohariu. Also all those Parker/Hay votes in Epsom would have elected Goldsmith and kept Banks out.

Lefties really need to learn how to vote strategically.

Grant McDougall

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 22:39:18 +1300

I predicted here a few months ago that Paula Bennett would lose her electorate seat and so it has came to pass...just.

Graeme Edgeler

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 20:45:13 +1300

which could lead to disproportionality if there was a change at recount

Disproportionality does occur if the change happens because of an election petition, however. But thanks for the thought, you’ve given me an idea for another short post :-)

Anita Easton

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 20:02:24 +1300

Thanks :) When I read the leg it looked like the list determination happened after the declaration in s179, and so would occur in parallel with recounts, which could lead to disproportionality if there was a change at recount.

Graeme Edgeler

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 19:46:48 +1300

Do you happen to know, is the decision about the number of list seats for each party set already? Or does it wait until after recounts?

It waits until after the recounts. The overall number of MPs for each party is set, unless someone requests a party vote recount (they…

Anita Easton

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 19:02:16 +1300

Do you happen to know, is the decision about the number of list seats for each party set already? Or does it wait until after recounts?

Public Address

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 19:02:16 +1300

Discussion from blog post.