Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: Dispatches from my twitter feed; or I salute your nerdery

Graeme Edgeler

Thu, 14 Sep 2017 09:14:49 +1200

If that’s the case then does your model give us a better sense of what the swing nationally could mean or is that casting too long a bow?

I haven't gone nearly that far. Simple math, not full analysis :-)

Alistair McBride

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 16:03:01 +1200

I sort of get your bellwether electorate argument. If I take Mangere at the other end – it says nothing about votes so much as it is more likely to have voted Labour (in its case) irrespective of what the national party vote was.
If that's the case then does…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 15:12:01 +1200

There is a probability that an electorate that may be thought a "bellwether" has actually aligned that way from chance (more so with FPP electorates that always elect an MP from the winning party, I think).

It would be interesting to calculate this for Ōtaki and also to look at…

kiwicmc

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 10:35:38 +1200

and now I know that bellwether refers to a sheep not an atmospheric state

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 07:45:06 +1200

...the “wasted vote” (ie votes for parties that don’t cross the 5% threshold and don’t win an electorate).
I have to admit I hadn't fully realised that this was part of the MMP equation – until they started talking about the 'discarded vote' on Morning Report this morning.
Though I…

Mr Mark

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 05:37:41 +1200

I've done quite a bit of finely-grained Booth-by-Booth analysis over recent years

It's allowed me to identify various Bellwether neighbourhoods

Who knows – Intensive canvassing of these micro-areas might just prove a little more cost-effective for Labour & Greens than Polling

Public Address

Wed, 13 Sep 2017 05:37:41 +1200

Discussion from blog post.