Public Address | Cafe | Legal Beagle: Before the fall https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/ en-us Copyright (c) 2026 Public Address Graeme Edgeler https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266575#post266575 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266575#post266575 Hence the possibility of a report that says something like “there are very good reasons for having a threshold at 3%, but this would be such a significant change to MMP (and one that was not broadly supported in public submissions received) that it should only be adopted if the… ]]> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 16:02:13 +1200 Rich of Observationz https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266534#post266534 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266534#post266534 unleashing the lawyers on internal party faction fights

Well, as a Green supporter, can I be forgiven a bit of schadenfreude at that prospect. (I suspect it would afflict National, ACT and Labour. Peter Dunne is unlikely to be suing himself, and the Maori Party list is an irrelevance).

]]> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 09:04:09 +1200 Andrew Geddis https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266530#post266530 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266530#post266530 I suspect they’ll leave the fallbacks to the Government. I reckon if they think it should be 3% they’ll just say so, referendum or not.

Depends how the Commission handles its brief. If I were them (which I'm not ... but then neither is anyone else ... except them, of…

]]> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 05:01:14 +1200 Graeme Edgeler https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266527#post266527 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266527#post266527 But I also think it may recommend that the best idea would be to abolish the electorate lifeboat and go down to 3% if voters agree to do so at a referendum – with a fall back of abolish the electorate lifeboat and go down to 4% if the government… ]]> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 00:47:29 +1200 Graeme Edgeler https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266525#post266525 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266525#post266525 Roughly the same as 5 heads in a row. ???

In other words, you notice it when it happens, but it's not actually the biggest deal.

]]> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 00:12:55 +1200 Steve Curtis https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266518#post266518 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266518#post266518 Ive looked at each election since 1999 and gave probabilities based number of final quotients between 110 and 120 allocated to National.
Thus the result is 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.6 x0.6 = 0.036 , which is the chance of it happening in 5 independent elections.
Roughly the…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 19:08:26 +1200 Rich of Observationz https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266517#post266517 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266517#post266517 Mon, 06 Aug 2012 16:44:37 +1200 Andrew Geddis https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266516#post266516 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266516#post266516 “I’m going to go along with everyone else here, and predict that the Commission will propose dropping the party vote threshold to 4%, and removing the one-seat exception. I don’t rule out its going to say 3%, but would be very surprised with anything lower than that.”

Pretty much agree.…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 16:41:35 +1200 Steve Curtis https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266515#post266515 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266515#post266515 I accept that being a larger party National ( or Labour) has more chances but apparently the Sante Lague method is chosen so as not to favour larger parties ( as opposed to D'Hondt method gives similar results too, but favours larger parties)
Here is actual quotients for 2002 when…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 16:28:55 +1200 BenWilson https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266513#post266513 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266513#post266513 I could work out a formula for the probability, but won't, as I haven't got that much spare time.

I'm guessing it's going to be close to 1/2^(number of elections). So getting a run of 5 is 1/2^5 = 1/32. Not that astronomical, but still unlikely. Interesting that it happened,…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 15:35:38 +1200 Rich of Observationz https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266512#post266512 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266512#post266512 Look at it as a lottery. (See here). The quotas are ranked in order, and each quota is like a lottery ball.

The more votes a party gets, the more balls. Therefore the chances of their "winning" the 120th quotient increases. National were largest party in 3/6 elections since MMP…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 15:29:46 +1200 Graeme Edgeler https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266499#post266499 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266499#post266499 While worthy all the changes you mention dont ‘enhance the overall experience’ as marketeers might say.

No. I argued for a much lower threshold as the only change likely to make very much of a (EDIT: in my opinion positive) difference at all (I don’t see anything higher than 3%…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 11:30:52 +1200 Steve Curtis https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266498#post266498 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266498#post266498 While worthy all the changes you mention dont 'enhance the overall experience' as marketeers might say.

So that brings me to my main point, 'you may get what you want but lose what you had' effect. For an electoral system the tinkering is never done. Is this what we really…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 11:09:39 +1200 Graeme Edgeler https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266494#post266494 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266494#post266494 What's the practical implication of not having an overhang? If we had none at the last election, would a list seat have been taken from the largest party or the last elected list MP?

The last elected MP. If the overhang was going to be one, then the Sainte-Laguë apportionment…

]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 09:26:21 +1200 Rich of Observationz https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266492#post266492 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266492#post266492 Mon, 06 Aug 2012 08:59:07 +1200 Public Address https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266491#post266491 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-before-the-fall/?p=266491#post266491 Discussion from blog post.

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