"All hail the Spider God," said a press release issued by the National Party. "The new National candidate for Epsom in 2011."

"The Spider God is not well-known by the general public but it is held in high regard within the National Party. It once ruled over a pre-human…

Because we assume the Maori Party wouldn't get 22,000+ party votes in the general electorates?

When correcting for any disparity caused by the smaller size of the Maori electorates, bringing in more voters in equivalent proportions to how the electorates did vote, I assumed you were going to be bringing…

This is all assuming that my understanding of how MMP handles independents is correct.

Tim – it appears to be. It is something that a lot of people get wrong. If anyone who does not come from a party that is contesting the party vote wins an electorate, proportionality is…

Tim, your argument about splitting a party into two parties contesting electorate and list votes happened in Italy in 2001.

Interesting. Thanks for pointing it out.

I was suggesting standing nominal independents, rather than putting electorate candidates in another party. For the Māori Party, this mightn't make much difference, but…

The 60,000 people represented in your average Maori electorate have far less influence over an election result than the 60,000 people represented in your average general electorate – even taking into account overhang.

OK, I see your point. (Assuming your 1.051 MPs per Māori electorate is roughly accurate.)

Why is…

Because we assume the Maori Party wouldn't get 22,000+ party votes in the general electorates?

You appear to be saying so by...

...suggesting the larger cause of overhang is an unequal distribution of voters between electorates.

To state that causation is due to unequal distribution of voters, whilst basing your…

2008 Maori electorates produced 33,807 party votes for the Maori Party. To increase this to 85,000+ (ensuring they have 5 PR MPs) requires making each electorate 2.5x larger than they currently are.

Because we assume the Maori Party wouldn't get 22,000+ party votes in the general electorates?

I'm not disputing that tactical voting can cause an overhang, nor that it helped cause one here. I'm suggesting the larger cause of overhang is an unequal distribution of voters between electorates.

The numbers, they don't work out.

2008 Maori electorates produced 33,807 party votes for the Maori Party. To…

And mostly, I'm backing up my riposte to your assertion that the Maori electorates are not inherently more…

You're looking at the results as showing that the Maori Party were the beneficiaries of tactical voting in the Maori seats.

Yeah and pre-election polling agrees, but polls tend to focus solely on party vote so are inaccurate in regard to tactical voting.

Another way to look at it is that…

How did they win 5 electoral seats?

I believe they were the beneficiaries of tactical voting.

That's one way to look at it.

You're looking at the results as showing that the Maori Party were the beneficiaries of tactical voting in the Maori seats.

Another way to look at it…

Accordingly, the adjusted party votes are therefore:

National 1056902.312
Labour 821328.431
Greens 159476.183
ACT 85726.979
Maori 70145.403
Progressives 21381.301
United…

The voters in an average Maori electorate have enough party votes between them to elect 1.051 MPs. The voters in the average general electorate (because there are many more of them per electorate) have enough party votes between them to elect 1.849 MPs.

Thinking about this again, I've come to…

If Maori were (as Craig calls it) Te Borg, the tactical vote implications would be quite impressive.

Actually, the Māori Party could do some quite spectacular tactical manipulations without requiring any tactical voting. Consider this strategy:

Tariana Turia stands in Te Tai Hauāuru as normal. All other Māori Party electorate…

Yes. But because the Maori Party won an electorate it doesn't matter for them.

How did they win 5 electoral seats?

I believe they were the beneficiaries of tactical voting.

Had they earned 85,411+ votes they'd have caused no overhang.

And they wouldn't have any seats, unless there was a…

We don't vote for power but for representation.

I can't speak for you, but I vote in the hope that the representatives I select might have some influence on power. Since the party I voted for has no influence on the ability of the legislature to pass laws, and holds…

Actually I think we do have a 5% threshold.

Yes. But because the Maori Party won an electorate it doesn't matter for them. Had they earned from 0 – 9,159 votes they'd have caused an overhang of 5 seats. Had they earned 85,411+ votes they'd have caused no overhang.

That's just how the Sainte-Laguë method works out, which I note isn't applied in his analysis.

Yeah, forgot about that. It's not easy to apply, so I'll code up an application to do it tonight and repost.

I suspect that the main difference between my and your numbers will be…

I think various National MPs owe their seats to the Maori roll, which limits the working class vote in much of the rural North Island.

There's no difference, overhang is tactical advantage. Both increase the chance of a voter getting their representatives into government.

Sure, but what I was looking at was whether the Maori seats are inherently more like to cause an overhang. They are.

That this *is* a tactical advantage does not mean…

Another way of looking at it is (at the 2008 election): a vote for NZF was worth nothing (despite being over 4% of the party vote) while a 2% Maori Party vote got them to overhang/hang over the parliament.

I read that as that the Maori Party vote was also…

But, as Mikaere shows above, "eventually" does not happen until the Maori electorates are have more voters than general roll electorates.

Mikaere's numbers are wrong (my apologies for not noticing his comment earlier). He assumes that you earn a seat with c. 20k votes. This is false. Without a threshold,…

I'm not talking about tactical voting, I'm talking about overhang.

There's no difference, overhang is tactical advantage. Both increase the chance of a voter getting their representatives into government.

Eventually the list vote would give them 5 MPs, which is the number of electorates they won.

But, as Mikaere shows above, "eventually" does not happen until the Maori electorates are have more voters than general roll electorates.

The voters in an average Maori electorate have enough party votes between them to elect 1.051 MPs. The voters in the average general electorate (because there are many more of them per electorate) have enough party votes between them to elect 1.849 MPs.

I'm still not sure how useful these…

I had always assumed that electorates were based on voter numbers, not total population, but that makes a great deal of sense.

It's an old National Party "rort". Back in the day, rural National-Party-voting people had larger families, by setting boundaries by reference to overall population, there were more safe…

Because having larger electorates makes it impossible for voters to vote tactically for their own advantage?

No. Because if the numbers of voters in the electorates increased, the proportion of the list vote that the Maori party would earn would increase, as they got higher relative list votes in the…

I've done the numbers (and am inclined to turn this into a fully argued post) and if the Maori electorates had the same number of voters as the general electorates, there would be no overhang.

Because having…

However boundaries are drawn with respect not to the voting age population, but to the electoral population, which includes non-voters, especially children.

I had always assumed that electorates were based on voter numbers, not total population, but that makes a great deal of sense.

Oh, and according to these numbers, the general electorates elected 1.849 * 63 = 116.487 MPs, and the Māori electorates elected 1.051 * 7 = 7.357 MPs, for a total of 123.844 MPs in Parliament. I don't think this is right.

It's not. I'd been looking at the last two…

How do they decide if a child is a non-voter on the Māori roll or a non-voter on the general roll?

The Maori electoral population is determined by taking the number of residents of Maori Descent, and multiplying it by the proportion of of people of Maori descent who are…

Instead, I re-did the numbers of the basis that a whole bunch of extra voters suddenly appeared in the Maori electorates, and voted in the same proportions as those already there.

I did the same, and this is what I got:

Using your numbers: Average general roll = 44,534, average…

No, it disadvantages the Maori Party. We have a 120 seat Parliament. The Maori Party won 5 of those seats. That's 4.17% of Parliament. But we have an overhang. Which means the Maori Party get 4.10% of Parliament, despite winning 5 seats.

And what proportion of the party vote did…

because (in the last election) there would've been two less maori electorates?

I didn't do the numbers that way, but I suspect that applies too (it's harder to work out, as who is to say that 5 Maori seats would be split 3-2 between the Maori Party and Labour -…

because (in the last election) there would've been two less maori electorates?

The reason the Maori Party end up with an overhang is that they don't get the required level of party vote, not just in Maori seats but in all seats, to bring in a member from the list.

That's not a reason. It's a description. An overhang is when a…

So, how do you feel about a party that thinks Maori shouldn't decide for themselves, and had a policy of abolishing the Maori seats irrespective of Maori views to the contrary ? Oh, and at the same time as campaigning on promoting personal choice.

About the same way I feel…

The Maori seats are a taonga and not for the rest of us to decide on.

Oh, bullshit — I know it's tempting to retcon history to serve contemporary needs but it might be a little more useful to acknowledge that the [[http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/5/b/e/00PLLawRP03141-Origins-of-the-M-ori-seats.htm|history and motivations were a wee bit more…

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies a vote for the candidates party)

...and another "disagree" from me.

In Welli Central (which has, I think, the highest Green Party vote in the country), there's been a tendency for many of us lefties to vote…

Maori electorates and general electorates represent the same number of people overall, but in 2008, the average general electorate was responsible…

It doesn't matter that the last 2 seats went to the Nats and the Greens – the overhang effectively advantages the Maori Party.

No, it disadvantages the Maori Party. We have a 120 seat Parliament. The Maori Party won 5 of those seats. That's 4.17% of Parliament. But we have…

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies a vote for the candidates party)

Disagree – last election I was in Ohariu-Belmont. I voted for Charles Chauvel because Peter Dunne... But I party-voted Greens because I really wanted them in parliament.

Another disagree. I was…

Someone did start a South Island Party. They did run electorate campaigns, but they didn't get or cause an overhang.

I thought maybe I should have added the words "if successful" but thought that would be obvious.

The "normal" situation would be that there are 70 electorate MPs, and 50 list MPs. There are two overhang MPs, making 52 lists overall. The two extra list MPs – the overhang MPs – are from the National Party and the Green Party.

It doesn't matter that the last 2…

The "normal" situation would be that there are 70 electorate MPs, and 50 list MPs. There are two overhang MPs, making 52 lists overall. The two extra list MPs – the overhang MPs – are from the National Party and the Green Party.

I don't think this is the right…

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies a vote for the candidates party)

Disagree – last election I was in Ohariu-Belmont. I voted for Charles Chauvel because Peter Dunne..

I also strongly disagree. The two votes are the key to the system, and provide…

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies a vote for the candidates party)

Disagree – last election I was in Ohariu-Belmont. I voted for Charles Chauvel because Peter Dunne..

I also strongly disagree. The two votes are the key to the system, and provide…

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies a vote for the candidates party)

Disagree – last election I was in Ohariu-Belmont. I voted for Charles Chauvel because Peter Dunne... But I party-voted Greens because I really wanted them in parliament. I didn't want to…

The "normal" situation would be that there are 70 electorate MPs, and 50 list MPs. There are two overhang MPs, making 52 lists overall. The two extra list MPs – the overhang MPs – are from the National Party and the Green Party.

So, I'm wrong. Proportionality is across all…

Under MMP all seats apart from overhangs and independents are PR.

I took Angus' claim to be that there are enough Maori voters on either the Maori roll, or on the general roll, to have elected 13 PR reps, plus 2 with the overhang in a big tactical vote.

…

If somebody was to start a South Island party and run an electorate campaign down there, they'd also get an overhang.

Someone did start a South Island Party. They did run electorate campaigns, but they didn't get or cause an overhang.

The Maori seats are a taonga and not for…

The Maori seats are a taonga and not for the rest of us to decide on.

I do think we should remove vote-splitting (so that an electorate vote implies…

There are also 2 overhang seats from the Maori electorates.

The "normal" situation would be that there are 70 electorate MPs, and 50 list MPs. There are two overhang MPs, making 52 lists overall. The two extra list MPs – the overhang MPs – are from the National Party and…

You know there aren't 13 Maori seats at the moment, right?

Heh.

You know MMP is a system of proportional representation, right?

And we do have stats.

The fraction of NZers in Maori electorates multiplied by 120 equals 12.4 (practically 13).

There are also 2 overhang seats from the Maori…

We do actually have the data, and my interest has been piqued, so I might do some analysis tonight.

I took Angus' claim to be that there are enough Maori voters on either the Maori roll, or on the general roll, to have elected 13 PR reps, plus 2 with…

If the electoral system absolutely has to be changed, then make it anything but FPP. Personally I lean towards STV or a similarly preferential system.

The Maori electorate votes tactically and in 2008 under MMP effectively elected 15 MPs (13PR + 2 overhang).

You know there aren't 13 Maori seats at the moment, right?

Also, only 39.3% of Maori Party party voters split their votes. 83.6% of ACT party voters split their votes, as did…

under FPP only those who live in marginal electorates have votes that effect the outcome

And just to stress how important this is: the Royal Commission on the Electoral System found that the 1978 election hinged on 722 voters in 7 marginal seats, and the 1981 election on 154 voters…

The Maori electorate votes tactically and in 2008 under MMP effectively elected 15 MPs (13PR + 2 overhang).

Well that's really over-reaching based on no data.

The 1993 election – our last under FPP – had 99 MPs, and a fixed 4 Maori electorates. We’re not going back to this. A prospective FPP system will have 120 MPs, including 12 (probably 13) Maori electorates. All we need is Sandra Grey to dog-whistle.

The Maori electorate votes…

Not quite sure I've got the point of that — I live just inside the boundaries of an electorate National's held since 1949.

Then (assuming they have a giant majority) no matter who you vote for (even National) you couldn't change the outcome of the election – your vote would…

I think the point was, if the boundaries were redrawn under FPP, you might end up living in a labour stronghold, and then your vote for anyone else would be about as influential as toilet paper.

The Eco-bulb of insight has just finished warming up! :) But there's always something…

I think the point was, if the boundaries were redrawn under FPP, you might end up living in a labour stronghold, and then your vote for anyone else would be about as influential as toilet paper.

With results like the recent British elections. I don't think it would be hard,…

Not quite sure I've got the point of that — I live just inside the boundaries of an electorate National's held since 1949.

I think the point was, if the boundaries were redrawn under FPP, you might end up living in a labour stronghold, and then your vote for anyone…

Australia does it better, apparently...

and they have compulsory voting...
I'm surprised it hasn't been introduced here, especially when you consider the potential revenue stream from fining everyone who doesn't vote...

I'm sure Ive heard several times, including from one direct source, that Rodney Hide has been speaking out against MMP also.

I thought turkeys didn't vote for their own Thanksgiving?

Regarding boundary changes, Tricky Dick was up in arms about old-money Khandallah being redrawn out of Wellington Central – which…

If people hanker for a return to FPP then ask them:

"So you'd be happy if there was a boundary change and you ended up in Rodney Hide's / Chris Carter's / Anne Tolley's [pick the ones you think they would like least] electorate and they had a 10,000 vote…

I'm sure Ive heard several times, including from one direct source, that Rodney Hide has been speaking out against MMP also.

Rodney Hide has been pretty upfront about it. It think he mentioned in on Q+A (maybe The Nation) a while back. I don't believe that's the only place he's…

I am not sure I agree w/you that National would be "quite happy" with MMP being retained.

If you think (as I do) that the four current Parliamentary parties likely to survive long-term are Labour, National, the Greens and the Maori Party, then it follows that…

I think it was Graeme who pointed out that without MMP there would actually be many more Maori seats

It was, and I'm wondering what impact it might have on the debate. I noted – only half-jokingly – on the Dim-Post recently:

__Those pushing for an alternative have a problem…

Ever noticed that they are only ever called "list MPs" when they're in trouble?

Otherwise, they're just called Chris Finlayson, Michael Cullen, Steven Joyce, Jeanette Fitzsimons, etc ...

MMP is to blame for everything. Especially Hone Harawira. Well, I've heard it said often enough, it must be true.

I think it was Graeme who pointed out that without MMP there would actually be many more Maori seats, but that just…

If people hanker for a return to FPP then ask them:

"So you'd be happy if there was a boundary change and…

Thank you!

What caycos said. Graham's analysis, despite the fact that it's astute and, well, right, won't wash with people who simply see MMP as a vehicle for weirdos

I think he knows that might be the case. I enjoyed the dry humour in his statement of the self-evident case to the…

400 words!

I knew I could do it :-)

Perhaps economy becomes you! Either way, this is a great post.

They thought that everything should go back to FPP because of all the terrible minority parties (those awful greens! and ACT!) that MMP let in... So I wouldn't be so sure.

I have never felt MMP was a shoo-in. Probably the inside running, but far from a sure thing.

Although…

They thought that everything should go back to FPP because of all the terrible minority parties (those awful greens! and ACT!) that MMP let in... So I wouldn't…

I knew I could do it :-)