So, Kyle, for the purposes of this exercise "Maori" are anyone who says they are

That seems to have worked well thus far. I don't think there are too many impostors on the Maori roll?

Who knows what consent would mean, but Maori isn't exactly undefined in umpteen places in NZ law, including electoral law.

So, Kyle, for the purposes of this exercise "Maori" are anyone who says they are. Or should we have to reel off our whakapapa until Tariana's satisfied — which would…

It does raise the question...

If you gave your baby to Rodney Hide, for a baby kissing moment (ew).

Would he drop it on its head?

Would have to be a freakishly strong baby.

I'm intrigued, though: on which side of the ledger do you put the story about taking Mary-Margaret to an ACT meeting?

True, true – it does help strike a balance.

I just re-read the post and I think what got me was the multiple expamples of the two-facedness (is that…

The 'shocking mistreatment of children' side? Oh wait, Rodney wasn't there, it's okay ;)

It does raise the question...

If you gave your baby to Rodney Hide, for a baby kissing moment (ew).

Would he drop it on its head?

Ooops – sorry, got side-tracked with looking after babies...
I realise I was a bit vague in my original post – it's just that you have a great (and witty) writing style and generally choose life-affirming or emotive topics such as extra-curricular tutelage of your daughter, travels around France, the…

I realise I was a bit vague in my original post – it's just that you have a great (and witty) writing style and generally choose life-affirming or emotive topics such as extra-curricular tutelage of your daughter, travels around France, the…

Having said that, his motivations appear good, which is…

But exactly what do the Maori Party and Labour mean by "consent", and exactly who counts as 'Maori' for the purposes of this exercise?

Who knows what consent would mean, but Maori isn't exactly undefined in umpteen places in NZ law, including electoral law.

And could someone ask Mrs Turia…

The election hasn't even occurred yet…

He may also have been tickling her bum with a feather, but I couldn't tell because it was radio.

Oh, thanks for that picture. Don't I do the gross and inappropriate word pictures around here? :) But I've got to agree with you that RNZ picked a lousy time to…

She said she didn't know Sharples was in the paper this morning expressing a preference for Labour and then suggested that National's policy on abolishing Maori seats was better than Labour's stance that the seats couldn't be removed against the…

Or perhaps…

it's much easier for Labour — their position already is that the Maori seats can only be abolished with the consent of Maori (of, course, you can bicker about what that consent actually entails).

No. Russell, let's not "bicker" but actually ask some serious questions about whether that means anything…

I guess the only way out of that is Labour and National both having spine and saying "nope, sorry". Breath, I no hold.

Leaving aside whether what the Maori Party announced means anything in a constitutional sense, it's much easier for Labour — their position already is that the Maori…

That's pretty significant electoral change

It would really depend what entrenchment means. If they mean can only be repealed by a vote of 3/4 of the house (for example), do they have to have a 3/4 vote to get it?

Given Key's lack of experience in negotiating in an MMP parliament, this could lead to imminent collapse and an early election – with Labour brought back to sort things out.

It wouldn't lead to an election; under current convention, the G-G will not dissolve parliament mid-term if there is a…

I guess the only way out of that is Labour and National both having spine and saying "nope, sorry". Breath, I no hold

I should add, I don't mind if either of them do support that, but please for the love of Jeebus don't do it just to make Govt.

Tariana Turia was on the 3.00 RNZ News saying the Maori Party is drafting a bill to entrench the Maori seats. Support for the bill (or enactment? not sure) would be a bottom line condition for their support of any party.

That's pretty significant electoral change (which I'm not necessarily…

Short term, pretty good. Longer term? Not so sure. [Act] are a declining nut-cult, dedicated to a bankrupt ideology, with a shrinking number of adherants.

Maybe enviromentalists could stage a leveraged takeover of Act when the last green holdout against the glorious socialist revolution has been turfed from the Greens.…

And then let Labour learn what it's like being called haters and wreckers for a change; the kind of people who are more interested in power than the country's good at a time of economic crisis.

Yes please.

Craig's a starter for 10, lets do it!

I actually have a strategy I would commend to Labour if, following the election, the Maori Party are set on supporting a National government.

Tariana Turia was on the 3.00 RNZ News saying the Maori Party is drafting a bill to entrench the Maori seats. Support for the bill (or…

Sofie: Is that the really really same Rik?

Hah! I just know we have lentils for dinner again :) (that is the real Rick Mayall though)

Let them win confidence (even by abstaining if they haven't got the votes). Then produce and promote an alternative budget that will be much more attractive…

ACT will hold Epsom, and have at least three MPs (which means Roger).

I foresee two scenarios.

1. Labour manages to hold on, Roger cuts a lonely figure on the opposition backbench, a perverse reincarnation of Rob Muldoon c. 1985.

2. National win, Roger cuts a lonely figure on the…

. I know what I mean!

And Winston knows what he means. It's those of us who have some grip, however tenuous, on objective reality who have problems.

Pollution
It's all around
Sometimes up, sometimes down
Pollution
Are you coming to my town?

We're on different buses, pollution.
But we're both using petrol...

BOMBS!

Pollution
It's all around
Sometimes up, sometimes down
Pollution
Are you coming to my town?

another reminder

Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?

Short term, pretty good. Longer term? Not so sure. They're a declining nut-cult, dedicated to a bankrupt ideology, with a shrinking number of adherants. While the thought of Roger Douglas in Parliament thrils them, its not going to win them…

What seems to be the problem, Rik?

I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.

I can't get no respect from a Nat.

I respect you heaps, David. I'll even call you in the morning. True.

It may be a bit old or boring but I imagine Winston will return to rule his roost, because "Joe the plumber" is the "Kiwi Battler"

'Joe The Plumber' doesn't exist, and perhaps I'm a big ol' Pollyanna in drag but I also think the 'Kiwi Battler from Struggle Street'…

You're not the same, man. You've changed.

Is it the washboard ab's? I can go back to drinking beer if you like.

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF – if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote…

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF – if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote *with* the government to cancel them out.

Well, that would have taken some genuine 'vision' and political courage so I guess we…

Vote National, get Rogered?

Vote National, get Lynched?

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

This is my reminder. It may be a bit old or boring but I imagine Winston will return to rule his roost, because "Joe the plumber" is the "Kiwi Battler"

the Nats believed they were right to turn their back on the traitorous and odious and loathsome Winston.

I wouldn't disagree.

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF – if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote *with*…

ACT will hold Epsom, and have at least three MPs (which means Roger). NZ First will be out. The Maori Party won't sweep the board and their party vote will keep the overhang to only 3 seats (including Anderton).

A couple of…

Pollution
It's all around
Sometimes up, sometimes down
Pollution
Are you coming to my town?

What seems to be the problem, Rik?

You're not the same, man. You've changed.

After…

Vote National, get Lynched?

Yeah, well one might think we should stay away from Chris Trotter territory.

Labour people I've spoken to seem to think NZF could get back.

Well, there are some Labour people whose tactical radar (like Karl Rove's) isn't quite as finely tuned as it used to…

Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?

I'd be surprised if Rodney didn't win Epsom. But yes, it could be a tiny party vote.

I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast

Labour people I've spoken to seem to think NZF could…

the Nats believed they were right to turn their back on the traitorous and odious and loathsome Winston.

Winston Peters is not a popular politician.

His platform is against thieving, lazy, job-taking immigrants. And how he is the Kiwi battler, an innocent man against the world. $158,000, what $158,000? $100,000,…

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

Best piece of political ad appropriation since the Mr Burns/I've been thinking caper in Wellington some ten years ago.

I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast, in which case a left coalition is a distinct possibility still.

That's when there will be real anti-MMP tantrums from the Nats.

Vote National, get Lynched?

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

(Merrill Lynch, for example?)

Vote National, get Lynched?

Then again, I'm one of those cranks who thinks there are some prices for power that are just too high to pay.

Too damn right.

The lovely think about the conventional wisdom of pundits is how often it turns out not to be conventional, or particularly wise.

It's because you don't listen to the right pundits.

Vote National, get Rogered?

Tee hee... Instead, you can vote Labour, and who the fuck knows whether you're getting Santa Cullen or the Grinch come Christmas? Since we've just got to take that December 'stimulus package' on trust and all.

What does that leave us? It leaves us with 50% looking like more of a possibility for one major party than it was a decade ago. But it’s still a very big number. Surely too big.

Well, you might be right David. Then again, looking at the other side of…

Will it be a Brasher future?

Vote National, get Rogered?

UPDATE
I've edited that to : assuming a Maori Party…

assuming a seven-seat Maori Party overhang

Or, more exactly, an overhang resulting from the Maori Party winning seven electorates — which is not the same thing. Such a result would probably require an extra two MPs at most (unless you think there is going to be systematic vote splitting, with…