Hard News: Where are all the polls at?
216 Responses
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Still, there's something deeply symbolic about a senior cabinet minister losing his seat - in the event it happens.
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The Herald now has it's modelling up and running.
As they say by combining all the polls and data from previous elections to correct for poll vs vote inaccuracies they should be able to get a better prediction.
A nice feature is they actually talk about the limitations, however they fail to mention one of the biggest limitations of such a model which is that if public opinion actually does change significantly then their model will effectively minimise the the influence of such a change. Hence their model has Labour lower and National higher than recent polls predict, if those polls are real, a big if, then the model can't respond to them.
That said it's really nice to see real variability represented properly rather than the usual "margin of error" bollocks.
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Somebody stole my idea from 2014 đ (using past accuracy to adjust current poll results). See this blog for how that worked out...
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Fortunately last night's TVNZ debate was not accompanied by the text "poll" from previous campaigns that I mentioned above - so that was a plus.
On t'other hand, it was immediately preceded by a proper one. Although I liked the result, I don't think that it should have been used to frame the debate. A day earlier would have been better. And fairer to English, not that I worry too much about that.
Anyway, next gripe: time for commentators to stop annointing Winston as inevitable Kingmaker. e.g. Labour 40 + Greens 8 + Maori 1.5 (and electorate) = 61/121. Not saying it will happen (odds are it won't) but it's time to update some of that conventional wisdom.
(ETA: gave the Greens an extra point ... because I can!)
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FletcherB, in reply to
A nice feature is they actually talk about the limitations, however they fail to mention
They fail to mention that any predictions about the size of the party vote received by United Future based on previous results are unlikely to bear any relationship to what they may receive now that Mr Dunn has retired...
They used to get what? A few to ten thousand party votes? I'd be surprised if they get 300 this year?
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More small print: tonight's Newshub poll was Aug 22-30. Which makes some of the responses older than the TVNZ poll before the leaders' debate.
These details matter.
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Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
These details matter.
They matter so much that it should be mandatory to state them when reporting the headline numbers. The narrative in some places (being written by journalists who should know better) is that National has arrested if not reversed the Labour surge. The details don't support that at all.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
gave the Greens an extra point ... because I can!
Since The Greens have polled from 15 to 4% and back to 6% thus far giving them a random point here or there is as good a method as the polls for guessing what they'll have on election day.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
They matter so much that it should be mandatory to state them when reporting the headline numbers.
It was reported in the story on the website â but not by Gower in his news piece. Naughty.
But in some ways understandable â it would have entailed a comparison with the oppositionâs more recent poll, and you donât pay heaps of money for polling only to talk about the other guysâ fresher poll.
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Sacha, in reply to
Enabling the Nats to claim that the two polls show Lab support trending down is not professional journalism.
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Another TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.
I don't think it's too far-fetched to suggest that Steven Joyce's innumerate mud-chucking was at least partly motivated to influence this poll, although it would only cover the later stages of the polling period.
(Corin Dann soundbite bingo: "Labour's momentum has stalled ... National recover ... NZ First/Greens struggling for oxygen ..." etc).
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Tom Semmens, in reply to
Since The Greens have polled from 15 to 4% and back to 6% thus far giving them a random point here or there is as good a method as the polls for guessing what theyâll have on election day.
I hear tell the Greens themselves are confident they are polling in the 6.5% range, but their big worry is historically they need to be polling at least this much to get over the threshold on election day, given how lazy their supporters are.
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Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
Another TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.
Will it be "explosive"? Or "dramatic"? Will it "turn [our] expectations on their heads"? Might it be "career-ending"? Or herald "desperate times"?
Punters need to be told these things. Pundits need to say them.
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Apologies for the fake news, the poll is out tomorrow! (I'm blaming Twitter ... )
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Dennis Frank, in reply to
Will it be "explosive"?
Simon Dallow said it will. The poll is actually out tomorrow night. Again no reference to what is likely to explode, but their ratings would take a hit if the poll result announcement caused viewers' tv sets or heads to explode, so you can see why they're being cagey...
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simon g, in reply to
I didn't hear Dallow say that in the bulletin I just watched. When was this?
He certainly shouldn't say it, because he doesn't know. The results would not be available yet, even to insiders.
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Again, the Herald creates confusion (cock-up not conspiracy I believe, but still):
Polling period? The graphic and the article give 2 different answers (for now, anyway - will probably be edited once they notice what an old sub would have seen in 5 seconds).
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Interesting Colmar Brunton. National's own polling must be showing the same thing.
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Dennis Frank, in reply to
I did see him say that, Simon - could've been in a promo, or maybe a back-announce in the bulletin. I registered the second use of 'explosive'. It does indeed imply an advance leak to the newsroom.
Probably the only thing that exploded as a result of the poll was Steven Joyce's credibility, if you liken that to a balloon. A further 2% shifted out of the Nat supporters' camp as a result of four top economists informing the public that the eleven billion dollar mistake Joyce told us is in Labour's policy costing doesn't actually exist. Own goal by Joyce.
I presume the One News team feels obliged to hype its polling because they think viewers are motivated by perception rather than reality, but it just leaves their attempt at fake news seeming feeble compared to the Joyce turd.
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A fortnight till election day, and Labour has now established a small lead over National: Colin James quotes the RNZ poll of polls (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338948/labour-a-nose-ahead-of-national-on-the-averages). The site methodology averages the latest three polls (unspecified).
Confirmed by the latest Bauer Media Insights IQ poll of 1528 Kiwi voters which puts Labour at 37%, National at 34% (poll includes undecideds 8%), and their lead is greater than the margin of error (2.5%) - see http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/
So lots of swing-voters seduced by lipstick-on-a-pig turning it into a cute wee bunny? Some mastermind figured policies are a tedious bore, who needs them? I saw Mike Hutcheson tell Duncan Garner he reckons Labour are currently around 46% because Colmar Brunton only use landlines. That presumes younger voters are responding more to the zeitgeist. Makes sense.
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There is a bluebelt in National Auckland who have been partying up on the blowout of their house equity, and they don't want that party to end. The meme that Bill English saw us through the GFC is a bit sick, chucking away the ladder for the most needy since 2008 saw us through this, the bluebelt have them to thank. Kiwi style austerity.
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The Herald has had a poor campaign when it comes to poll reporting. I'm starting to miss Digipoll!
Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being "at odds with some other mainstream polls". Well, yes, probably because it isn't one.
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Tom Semmens, in reply to
Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being âat odds with some other mainstream pollsâ.
Given the number of current and ex-National party MPs firmly in the Chinese communist parties NZ fifth column, this doesn't surprise me.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being "at odds with some other mainstream polls". Well, yes, probably because it isn't one.
It's not a new thing. I remember reading a Scoop or Newsroom.co.nz article in the run-up to the 1999 election about similar results. So far I can't find it on the Web Archive, and Scoop's archive search is a bit scattershot.
Keith Ng did his own research on a similar issue a bit over a decade ago, and the results weren't quite as clear cut. Especially once you start breaking down the figures between 1st-generationers, and 1.5ers and 2nd-generationers.
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Upon looking through my voting pack, I had to laugh when I saw ACT has 39 (thirty nine) list candidates!!!
Should be renamed The Optimists Party!
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