Hard News by Russell Brown

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  • Sofie Bribiesca,

    Just had a thought, (I know, I know, rare for me )
    This Right eous wing lot are all about the backroom deal. From the Earthquakes to the Elections, a nod and a wink, she’ll be Right. "Boy ,have I got a deal for you.;)" Dealers and gamblers. :((

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX, in reply to BenWilson,

    There are some critical outcomes that could swing things quite a lot.

    I am interested in what are these "critical outcomes", critical outcomes of or from what?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    For leaning left, I still can't see past the minor Parties doing it without Labour IF one wants the Left to govern.

    No, but governing isn't the only effective thing you can do if the race is close enough. A resurgent left, diminishing the right's majority, could temper everything that they do with all of the more popular ideas on the left. I very much doubt National wants to find itself on the far right of the political spectrum.

    I am interested in what are these "critical outcomes", critical outcomes of or from what?

    There are some minor party races that are quite crucial to the way things go in this election. The most obvious is ACT. If they disappear, National is indeed the rightmost party economically, and I don't think that's going to be a very good position if the international economy continues to implode, as seems likely.

    Peter Dunne and Hone Harawira must win their seats for their parties, too.

    And the biggest wild card of all is Winston, who stands an outside chance of making the 5% threshold. National ruled out dealing with him. That could rob National of vital right wing votes. Or they could go back on that, and work with him, at the cost of their only idea, to sell assets.

    Conservative could take an unknown number of votes away from National.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to BenWilson,

    I very much doubt National wants to find itself on the far right of the political spectrum.

    Well it just went to A Cuppa Tea Party to try to ensure their return. And they are happy to make concessions for confidence and supply so your doubts could be pie/sky. After saying he would not have Brash in "Cabinet", he's already at "Minister outside Cabinet." Shifty, much? Plus puppet master Joyce is there who worked with Brash on that 2005 Election and Key was there too. Far right wasn't a problem then. The strategy may have changed, has the entire National Party base shifted? doubt that.
    Policy? Oh that's right, more of the same, sell assets.
    I'm reminded of South Park, I can change, I can change, I can change. :)

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Well it just went to A Cuppa Tea Party to try to ensure their return.

    A party to the right of National can carry the can for policy in that direction. The move ensures that the Nats aren't the most rightward, as Ben says.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX, in reply to BenWilson,

    Yes, if Winston gets up and Act disappear it will be interesting.

    The Maori Party (or NZ First) could enter a coalition on the basis that there are no asset sales. Though I don't know what the Maori Party position on this will be.

    The best outcome is that National need to form a coalition and can't govern alone.

    I don't see a grand left coalition as a good thing - it will be flaky and implode in a fashion bordering on cannibalism as only the left can accommodate - as is their custom.

    I'm just not ready to be saved by a bunch of cannibals stirring the pot.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    National has the option of governing as a minority. It will undoubtably be the largest party in parliament, but I doubt it will get 50% of the vote; a minority government would be an option if ACT doesn't score.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 499 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    Conservative could take an unknown number of votes away from National.

    Peter Tashkoff's Reform Party seemed to be going that way too initially. But more recently it's been MIA, and it's not on the Electoral Commission register.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5446 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    Voting is the only way to achieve political change

    Seriously? putting a cross on a piece of paper once every three years is the only way to achieve political change?

    Now who's being naive?

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to John Farrell,

    National has the option of governing as a minority. It will undoubtably be the largest party in parliament, but I doubt it will get 50% of the vote; a minority government would be an option if ACT doesn't score.

    I'd be reasonably happy with that outcome. They'd have to actually seek consensus on a case-by-case basis. I'd prefer it to be another party, but actually if it's a choice between a huge left coalition which excludes the big party, or a big party that must actually respect the democratic process, there's not much in it - I think the first option could undermine all the other parties, whereas the second option would be a moderate government that would force National to show democratic leadership. If they stepped up, things could go well for them. If they can't or won't, it is likely to harm them.

    And frankly, I still think and will always think, that a grand coalition should always be on the table. These are actually pretty desperate times, and bipartisan leadership would be of tremendous value.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    They'd have to actually seek consensus on a case-by-case basis.

    Key made a reasoned case in yesterday's Sky/Prime show that they'd probably go for similar arrangements as this term (to moderate the risk of losing support in key areas, in exchange for policy 'concessions' to minor parties).

    But oh how he squirmed when confronted with his lying about Standard and Poors ("I stand by what I've said", ad infinitum).

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    Yup, and he'd be all the more inclined to it, if it was required because he didn't have the votes otherwise. I think they'd find it very hard to sell off assets without Dunne and ACT delivering them a majority. No other parties want that.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Kracklite,

    It’s led to an ineffective government, unwilling to tackle real structural problems, but parties making shrill noises about ‘socialism’.

    As a case in point, which I think is symptomatic, one can look at the plight of the american space programme.

    [edit for length]

    OK, a pointy-headed, long-winded technical and rather narrow example, but I think it illustrates the dysfunction of crony capitalism and the unwillingness of democratic institutions in their present form to deal with it.

    It also rather neatly illustrates how the real power has shifted from national government institutions to global corporates.

    Google and Facebook are able to surveil citizens to an extent undreamed of by governments 20 years ago.

    News International has shown an utterly ruthless willingness to subvert and corrupt the police and the government in the UK in order to spy on UK citizens. And isn't effectively being held to account by those democratic institutions.

    Blackwater is building it's own airforce.

    And as you've noted, western governments are barely capable of putting men in space any more. But private companies are quite happily putting together thier own space programmes.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    I think they'd find it very hard to sell off assets without Dunne and ACT delivering them a majority. No other parties want that.

    Doesn't the Maori Party also support it so iwi can buy assets?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Sacha,

    Yes.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    Doesn't the Maori Party also support it so iwi can buy assets?

    I don't know. If they do, they are fucking idiots. Indeed, I think Mana would do very well from any such announcement. In fact, I think Mana have quite a bright future anyway. It would be amazing to actually have a "poor people's party", with a strong emphasis on social justice. It's something that's been largely absent in NZ politics, left to the Greens, who may have actually been held back by it, when their real focus is environmentalism.

    I never would have thought this would happen in NZ politics, that such a party would emerge from a splintered Maori party. But the iwi focus of the Maori Party has always been something ever so slightly alienating to Maori who may have felt left out of iwi politics, and perceived the whole thing to be a power grab by a small clique of powerful tribal leaders. It may actually broaden the base of Maori voters. I hope it does.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    Maoridom is broad enough to support parties of the left and right. Media stereotyping has fuelled surprise that the Maori Party would align themselves with National.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    It’s something that’s been largely absent in NZ politics, left to the Greens, who may have actually been held back by it, when their real focus is environmentalism.

    In other words, Mana is a worthy successor to the Alliance. And unlike the Maori Party, Mana allows non-Maori into its ranks despite coming across as more radicalised.

    But the iwi focus of the Maori Party has always been something ever so slightly alienating to Maori who may have felt left out of iwi politics, and perceived the whole thing to be a power grab by a small clique of powerful tribal leaders.

    There’s a justified perception that the Maori Party has become the Brown Table Party to a certain degree.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5446 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    In other words, Mana is a worthy successor to the Alliance.

    Sort of. The Alliance was a real mishmash, and in the end that did them no good. Mana does not need to divest from strong Green affiliation, even though I think they are most likely very Green sympathetic. They'd be very easy bedfellows, and Greens might get a lot of advantage pushing more toward the center - environmentalism is much more likely to figure as a top priority for middle classes than the impoverished, who are more likely concerned about more basic quality of life issues - food, shelter, health, exploitation, justice.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Rich Lock,

    It also rather neatly illustrates how the real power has shifted from national government institutions to global corporates.

    Also, I have to say, drawing the Weimar analogy a bit further, the pervasive disenchantment with established democratic institutions. On one hand, the Tea Party and Occupy movements are positive in that they represent “people power”, but on the other, they represent a disengagement with the traditional institutions of democracy that are further co-opted by corporations. The Tea Party itself has been thoroughly co-opted by the plutocrats now… and to extend the Weimar analogy still further, I’m worried.

    In my opinion, the American constitutional system seems peculiarly and tragically ossified, with even the ancient British parliament having undergone more radical reform in recent years and that disengagement and disenchantment may get even worse. With no means to accommodate dissent, with the impossibility of gaining representation in Congress without access to a billion dollars, then America’s implosion into some dire state looks increasingly likely. I could use the word ‘fascism’, but I’m reluctant to do so – not because of Godwin (if he’s annoyed, he can start his own blog), but because it might be something else, something unpredictable.

    And as you’ve noted, western governments are barely capable of putting men in space any more. But private companies are quite happily putting together thier own space programmes.

    Well, since I consider exploration a noble endeavour, the shift of power from dysfunctional democracies to corporations is not an unmixed curse.

    By the way, Blackwater has rebranded itself as Xe Services now, a cleverly meaningless brandname, like Executive Outcomes. Get ready for Stealth Everything. Bland brands, duckspeak, smiley-wavy…

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 982 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Kracklite,

    Well, since I consider exploration a noble endeavour, the shift of power from dysfunctional democracies to corporations is not an unmixed curse.

    Yes, but accountability yadda yadda.

    By the way, Blackwater has rebranded itself as Xe Services now

    Yes, I know. I'm not letting them get away with it that easily.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Rich Lock,

    "The Artists Formerly Known As..."?

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 982 posts Report Reply

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