Hard News: The Watching World
106 Responses
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Paul Williams, in reply to
I think most of the technical issues are solvable, the main issues to me are "the tyranny of the majority" issues (though it is argued how much a problem this would be under a direct democracy system).
Unlike the tyranny of the voters of Epsom?
I understand, but need to do more investigation, that some English counties and Scotish regions devoled arrangements allowing residents more direct input into resource allocations (relative to the House of Commons I mean). Certainly, getting sustained and informed participation is a challenge, and there'll be much more besides, I guess the interesting point of difference is the, as Carne says, taking back of 'agency'. Not electing a representative to govern, but to be directly engaged in governance (beyond petitions and submissions etc).
Anyway, this might be straying into a threadjack, it was the tech angle that distracted me.
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Andre Alessi, in reply to
Exciting American Presidential elections where it's not clear what's going to happen come election day is a recent phenomena.
Perhaps not coincidentally, this has coincided with reduced voter participation and a consequent need from campaigns (and pundits) to frame every race as close to encourage people to vote. People are less likely to think their own vote is meaningless in a race that is already decided.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Uk local authorities (counties, districts, cities) have roughly the same amount of autonomy as NZ ones. I believe that some/all of them are education providers, but health is run nationally, for instance. They don't have the kind of independent competence that US municipalities do.
Scotland and Wales have devolved assemblies, which can legislate in certain areas and in the case of Scotland, levy taxes.
All of those bodies, down to parish councils, operate almost entirely on a representative model. There have been very few referenda in the UK, and (I think) all have been on constitutional arrangements, not policy.
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I'm kinda transfixed by the Chris Christie thing today. New Jersey's Republican governor, who has attended 100+ Springsteen shows but has never been acknowledged by The Boss, on account of his politics, got to meet Bruce after Sunday night's fundraising concert -- and got a hug. The next day Obama calls him and puts Springsteen on the line.
Christie, no doubt shattered by the effort of trying to put his smashed-up state back together, is genuinely moved. The wingnut-o-sphere proceeds to cover him in pure hate for being a human being.
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I see fivethirtyeight are now at 92.5% chance of an Obama victory with a "most likely" result of 315.3 Electoral College votes.
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Rob Stowell, in reply to
I see fivethirtyeight are now at 92.5% chance of an Obama victory with a “most likely” result of 315.3 Electoral College votes.
The closer to the election, the more the polls (snapshots of an ever-moving present) become snapshots of election day. Plus a small but definite trend towards Obama in the last week-10 days.
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The Noise circles my camp - teeth bared, haunches raised. I toss the final Gallup poll onto the fire. Dawn approaches.
'
I'm well behind on this one, but parody account FiveThirtyNate is killing it handsomely. -
Paul Williams, in reply to
New Jersey's Republican governor, who has attended 100+ Springsteen shows but has never been acknowledged by The Boss, on account of his politics, got to meet Bruce after Sunday night's fundraising concert -- and got a hug.
I'm loving this story, sure for partisan reasons, but mostly for human ones.
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Islander, in reply to
I’m well behind on this one, but parody account FiveThirtyNate is killing it handsome
O! Quirky fun! Love it-
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A good who's who article about the poll stats people.
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Pete,
Early uncorroborated signs from Florida are that the GOP/Tea Party attempts to disenfranchise the queuing voters are leading to a surge amongst black and latinos supporting Obama
Democrats extend Florida early voting lead wapo.st/YL0VCQ
The story that the Republicans may be telling themselves after they lose is that Sandy interrupted Romney's late surge. Grasping at straws in the wind?
Hopefully this will be the end of the tea party eedjitsTWO TERMS, BITCHES!!
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US elections (federal and state) are governed partly by federal law ( Bush v Gore , obviously), and partly by state law. Where it's a federal issue, states often have choices about how they implement the federal law.
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FletcherB, in reply to
winning party in each state runs the following election
Actually that’s wrong – think it’s the one currently in govt at state level. Sorry.
David hood has already addressed how it's not this simple....
But I'm suffering from a logic fail issue... Surely you've just re-iterated the point you appeared to be debating/questioning?
How would the party in govt NOT be the one that won the last election for that state?
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DexterX, in reply to
Actually it is going to be a conservative wetdream with all the swing states going to Romney.
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
The wingnut-o-sphere proceeds to cover him in pure hate for being a human being.
Yeah, it’s been particularly revolting seeing Christie accused of opportunistically spite-fucking Romney because he was passed over for the Vice-Presidential nomination. Hey, just ignore that was doing a pretty good job as a Romney surrogate pre-Sandy, I know this might be really hard for the usual suspects to grasp, but they really need to stop driving away people like Christie (an extremely popular GOP governor in a deep-blue state with approval ratings both Obama & Romney would kill for). And you know what -- if Christie decides to run for a second-term next year, deciding to behave like a functional adult instead of a party hack hasn't done him any harm. With anyone.
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Sacha, in reply to
State govt gets to run federal election. Depends who won last state election, not federal one. Parties the same.
In Auckland, it would be like a Council dominated by C&R (Nat/Act) or City Vision (Lab/Grn) getting to decide how our national general election happens in the region.
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For my money, the single best thing they could do to ease up the logistics of US elections (apart from making vote-by-mail widely possible, like it has been in Oregon for fourteen years without any noticeable signs of the apocalypse) is separate out the elections for state government/judges/environmental boards/dogcatchers from the federal-level elections. Even discounting often lengthy ballot questions/referenda, it's quite usual to be presented with a ballot asking you to make decisions in ten or more races. That's going to lengthen waiting times no matter how well-run the election.
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Hi Lucy,
I take it you are living in the US. What is the mood like if so? Have you been past any voting booths so far?
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Meanwhile, video of a voting machine that keeps flipping votes from Obama to Romney.
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I've kicked off an election-day thread.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
So, how many are rigged then? Only if you notice it and can prove it you get to call the police or an 0800 number? I am not surprised that it prefers Romney to Obama when the same or another machine is being brushed off as a oncer and if their past performance is anything to go by.
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Lucy Stewart, in reply to
I take it you are living in the US. What is the mood like if so? Have you been past any voting booths so far?
Apparently turnout here (in our area of Mass) is crazy - really long lines, running out of parking spaces, etc, and this was at 8.30 in the morning. The local bet is that it's the senate race driving the turnout - Warren has very strong support here, as you'd expect in a college area. There's nothing else on the ballot that would get people out like that, unless it's the medical marijuana ballot question (referendum).
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That voting machine has been taken offline.
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Graeme Edgeler, in reply to
US elections (federal and state) are governed partly by federal law ( Bush v Gore , obviously)
Bush v. Gore did not involve a question of federal law.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
That voting machine has been taken offline.
.....recalibrated and back online as your link updates.
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