Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: The remarkable rise of Michael Avenatti

Alfie

Tue, 26 Mar 2019 09:00:48 +1300

In a bizarre postscript to this thread — Michael Avenatti is fucked. Was trying to extort $25m from Nike ever likely to end well?

nzlemming

Fri, 18 May 2018 23:23:34 +1200

Holy shit. Avenatti says he's got two more women who Cohen paid off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9gs0OKP7Jg

nzlemming

Fri, 18 May 2018 13:50:40 +1200

I've just heard that Paul Manafort's son-in-law has flipped.

And there are also reports (on MSNBC so grain of salt) that Giuliani's defence is now:
1) DOJ policy advises against indicting a President (true)

and

2) It is legal to get political dirt “from a Russian” (false)

[edit: this is…

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 22:15:09 +1200

And a hell of a story from Ronan farrow.

Maddow interviewing Ronan Farrow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5oCwd-fRA8

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 17:08:16 +1200

It may be easier to read that thread as a roll-up https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/996775709967355904.html

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 14:33:35 +1200

In semi-related news, the Senate has released the transcript of Donald Trump Jr.'s testimony

TL;DR he lied.

Seth Abramson has a good thread analysing it.

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 13:06:11 +1200

Yeah, this dangerous dispensationalist Christian craziness has been present in successive Republican administrations since Reagan. But it does seem even more dangerous with Trump in office.

It's all good fun until someone loses an eye for an eye.

The lunatics have control of the asylum, and they want to burn…

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:54:49 +1200

Yeah, this dangerous dispensationalist Christian craziness has been present in successive Republican administrations since Reagan. But it does seem even more dangerous with Trump in office.

I thought Jeanine Pirro was going to have an orgasm as she reported "live from Jerusalem"

nzlemming

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:53:56 +1200

And today … Trump’s compulsory financial disclosure confirms that he did pay Cohen back, and chose to leave that information out of last year’s disclosure.

In other words, Trump released some information after he was caught out.

Russell Brown

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:16:31 +1200

A highly recommended read;

Yeah, this dangerous dispensationalist Christian craziness has been present in successive Republican administrations since Reagan. But it does seem even more dangerous with Trump in office.

Russell Brown

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:14:19 +1200

And a hell of a story from Ronan farrow.

He interviewed the government official who leaked the Cohen SARs – who says he did so because he was alarmed that they'd disappeared from a federal database where they should have been.

It starts to look less like leaking as such…

Russell Brown

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:11:15 +1200

And today … Trump’s compulsory financial disclosure confirms that he did pay Cohen back, and chose to leave that information out of last year’s disclosure.

Russell Brown

Thu, 17 May 2018 12:09:53 +1200

More ramifications in the WaPo Russia-linked company that hired Michael Cohen registered alt-right websites during election

Whoa.

Katharine Moody

Wed, 16 May 2018 22:40:17 +1200

A highly recommended read;

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12052786

nzlemming

Tue, 15 May 2018 15:35:14 +1200

More ramifications in the WaPo Russia-linked company that hired Michael Cohen registered alt-right websites during election

nzlemming

Tue, 15 May 2018 14:51:25 +1200

A new twist: http://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/cohen-grand-jury-mueller/10152/

nzlemming

Mon, 14 May 2018 18:32:10 +1200

For the longer and care complicated version, there's a Seth Abramson Twitter thread.

"But it gets worse" is such an awesome refrain.

EDIT Holy crap, that's an awesome thread! And Mueller's managed to keep the leaks to zero. Wherever Avenatti is getting his stuff, it won't be the Special Counsel.…

nzlemming

Mon, 14 May 2018 18:24:40 +1200

This would be deemed too unlikely as a TV plot.

Pretty much describes the whole Trump campaign and presidency.

Russell Brown

Mon, 14 May 2018 15:23:11 +1200

For the longer and care complicated version, there's a Seth Abramson Twitter thread.

Russell Brown

Mon, 14 May 2018 15:10:15 +1200

Oh, and worse yet since Avenatti’s Sunday drop:

Michael Avenatti’s Mother’s Day bombshell, explained

So … Avenatti (or his clearly very good researchers) have found images of Cohen, Michael Flynn and Ahmed al-Rumaihi, who runs QIA, Qatar’s big sovereign investment fund, at Trump Tower, just two days after the Steele…

nzlemming

Fri, 11 May 2018 15:33:07 +1200

Getting worse
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/dubious-explanations-follow-revelation-of-payments-to-cohen-1229719107741?playlist=associated

Russell Brown

Fri, 11 May 2018 08:18:08 +1200

Chris Hayes is not my favourite reporter, but this is interesting. US newspapers are confirming Avenatti’s document from separate sources (?) and the companies named are confirming payments and that Cohen was promising access to Trump.

And the consistent pattern is that the actual amounts paid into the slush account…

nzlemming

Thu, 10 May 2018 23:35:02 +1200

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLtEaZtz1E4

nzlemming

Thu, 10 May 2018 18:46:49 +1200

Also, Mueller interviewed these companies last November .

nzlemming

Thu, 10 May 2018 18:41:50 +1200

Chris Hayes is not my favourite reporter, but this is interesting. US newspapers are confirming Avenatti's document from separate sources (?) and the companies named are confirming payments and that Cohen was promising access to Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34R5kJCGoEs

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 23:26:05 +1200

Avenatti gently teasing Sam Nunberg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7RVo35LBDs

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 09 May 2018 19:54:18 +1200

I generally don’t like conspiracy theories but this seems to be more than a porn star after more exposure, – sorry.

She was a dark and stormy knight...

Rob S

Wed, 09 May 2018 18:41:09 +1200

Would you play poker against Avenatti?
Has this been the plan all along to use Stormy Daniels as a stalking horse to open up Trump's corruption? How much more has he got?
If this is what a porn stars lawyer can unearth what can Mueller access?
Is Cohen singing?
How…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 09 May 2018 18:35:50 +1200

Today reminds me of the Eagles song “New York Minute” – Somebody’s going to emergency, somebody’s going to jail
...and that reminds me of Tom Waits' Small Change got rained on
And someone will head south until this whole thing cools off, 'cause
'Cause small change got rained on with…

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 18:35:23 +1200

Avenatti on CNN with Anderson Cooper

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBOufMqOYSA

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 17:16:03 +1200

Today reminds me of the Eagles song "New York Minute" – Somebody's going to emergency, somebody's going to jail

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 17:10:27 +1200

o At least 18 states had election systems targeted by Russian-affiliated cyber actors in some fashion. Elements of the IC have varying levels of confidence about three additional states, for a possible total of at least 21.…

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 17:02:51 +1200

I didn't!

But somebody else did.

I thank you and wish to subscribe to your newsletter. Oh, wait.

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 May 2018 15:54:38 +1200

And Avenatti has just posted a new link.

Looks like he exceeded his Dropbox cap!

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 May 2018 15:52:10 +1200

EDIT: Please tell me you downloaded that, because it’s 404ing now!

I didn't!

But somebody else did.

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 15:46:40 +1200

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-this-how-avenatti-found-out

nzlemming

Wed, 09 May 2018 15:29:00 +1200

HOLD THE DAMN PHONE.

Avenatti has released a "Preliminary Report on Findings" that appears to show that the account from which Cohen paid Stormy Daniels' hush money was "replenished" by a Russian oligarch who is close to Putin.

Saviour on a stick! As if Rudy wasn't bad enough.

EDIT: Please…

andin

Wed, 09 May 2018 15:03:38 +1200

Did I say underdog? funny you went to that...

slush fund eh!
Intervention yes!
Theres quite a few who need to be sat down and asked to account for their actions

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 May 2018 14:47:54 +1200

It looks like AT&T's AI needs an intervention, frankly.

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 May 2018 14:44:10 +1200

AT&T's responses to angry customers on Twitter have been priceless.

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 May 2018 14:19:35 +1200

HOLD THE DAMN PHONE.

And that that AT&T secretly paid money into the same slush fund after…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 09 May 2018 13:03:23 +1200

Sympathy for the underdog seems often so widespread as to be a part of human nature. Then one notices that this huge crowd vastly outnumbers those who are ready, willing & able to translate that feeling into political action. Like more than a hundred to one, perhaps a thousand to one.…

andin

Wed, 09 May 2018 12:02:18 +1200

just a structural adjustment
Tell that to the people who are falling thru the ever-widening gaps, it will be a real comfort to them huh!

nzlemming

Tue, 08 May 2018 15:47:10 +1200

And Giuliani's own take

Giuliani pleased with his media tour: ‘Everybody’s reacting to us now’

Dennis Frank

Tue, 08 May 2018 13:53:13 +1200

Time will tell, but consider those as consequences of a trend rather than stable states. So when folk start gravitating toward the big picture in preference to a focus on parts of it, a cultural shift will ensue. The USA seems in dire straits to us, culturally, but to them…

nzlemming

Tue, 08 May 2018 12:41:10 +1200

A nice round up of Giuliani Week

Particular takeaway:
STEPHANOPOULOS: But you’ve said as a matter of fact on Hannity and BuzzFeed, you talked to the Washington Post about it.

GIULIANI: I don’t know how you separate fact and opinion.

linger

Tue, 08 May 2018 11:57:13 +1200

How does the pendulum swing back from polarised politics and fragmented world views? This does not seem like something that can self-correct.

Dennis Frank

Tue, 08 May 2018 11:53:55 +1200

Yeah, good question. And, despite writing it casually, I do observe a serious cultural context – which is that the coming generations currently seem more like Trump than like me.

Macro pendulum swings in culture have great inertia and long periods, but the swing to extreme superficiality will produce the…

andin

Tue, 08 May 2018 10:53:51 +1200

Trump gets that the media are for entertainment, not facts

Such a casual observation.
So media outlets in the US are completely screwed? Is that what you're saying?
Or is trump the ultimate postmodernist, just exploiting everything for what he can get out of it? Relativism serving his purpose?

Alfie

Mon, 07 May 2018 09:37:35 +1200

Doing his best to dig an even deeper hole, Giuliani says $130k payment to Stormy Daniels was “a nuisance payment”.

“I never thought $130,000 was a real payment… people don't go away for $130,000."

https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/exclusive-rudy-giuliani-revelations-trump-stormy-daniels-case-54970086
(quote starts around 3:40")

Tom Semmens

Mon, 07 May 2018 09:01:24 +1200

Wait up: now Cohen has told someone that Giuliani’s version was bullshit and he’s pissed off.

Given the age of some of these geezers (Guliani is 73, Trump is a 71 year old who has had a fairly louche life) it all sometimes sounds perilously like the confused and rancorous…

Dennis Frank

Sun, 06 May 2018 15:56:46 +1200

Trump gets that the media are for entertainment, not facts. In postmodern culture media success is proportional to the variety of perceptions it creates, because perception trumps reality. So Trump trumps the media.

Thus this from a ThinkProgress reporter: "Trump repeatedly asserted that Giuliani simply didn’t know what he was…

nzlemming

Sun, 06 May 2018 12:56:06 +1200

Giuliani said he made @realDonaldTrump aware of paperwork that showed payments were actually reimbursements for Stormy.

How could Giuliani show paperwork to Trump? The only paperwork, from Cohen's end of the transaction would have been scooped up by SDNY in the raid on Cohen. Way to get Cohen to flip,…

Russell Brown

Sat, 05 May 2018 08:52:31 +1200

Wait up: now Cohen has told someone that Giuliani's version was bullshit and he's pissed off.

Russell Brown

Sat, 05 May 2018 08:39:54 +1200

Oh bloody dear:

Giuliani tries to clarify comments on Trump’s reimbursement of payment to porn star Stormy Daniels

President Trump’s new lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani sought Friday to clean up a series of comments made during a whirlwind media tour meant to bolster the president’s standing regarding a payment to…

nzlemming

Fri, 04 May 2018 16:40:29 +1200

I am convinced this is why Trump and his family are freaking out about the Cohen raid and the possibility he could flip. The SDNY is sitting on the mother lode of evidence and Rudy has given them the connection between purported legal fees and payments by Cohen to third…

Alfie

Fri, 04 May 2018 11:31:40 +1200

After wasting too much time reading Trump related stories for the past year or more, I get the feeling that the end game has finally begun. It's like the best of Breaking Bad and Law & Order wrapped into one, with less believable characters, of course. Future historians are going to…

Sacha

Fri, 04 May 2018 10:06:57 +1200

I saw that and had to look up SDNY. I'd say someone is going down, just a question of who wriggles free.

Russell Brown

Fri, 04 May 2018 08:09:17 +1200

And an unnamed legal expert on TPM:

Trump is a major real estate developer in NY who has openly bragged about his ability to cut through red tape and get politicians in his pocket. We now have serious SDNY public corruption prosecutors and FBI agents in possession of a massive…

Russell Brown

Fri, 04 May 2018 07:57:24 +1200

And fresh from NBC:

Federal investigators have wiretapped the phone lines of Michael Cohen, the longtime personal lawyer for President Donald Trump who is under investigation for a payment he made to an adult film star who alleged she had an affair with Trump, according to two people with knowledge…

Russell Brown

Fri, 04 May 2018 07:55:46 +1200

From the Above the Law legal website:

The problem is that NOTHING Giuliani said actually inoculates Trump or Cohen from any possible campaign finance violation. Giuliani can say that “it’s not campaign money,” but that’s Rudy being worried about the entirely wrong thing. If Cohen made the payment, then that…

nzlemming

Fri, 04 May 2018 01:27:59 +1200

Holy shitballs! Rudy Giuliani went on Hannity and admitted that a) Trump knew about the Stormey Daniels payoff and b) paid Cohen back, in installments of $35K per month as a retainer after the election (which makes no fucking sense as a repayment of debt is not a retainer). Take…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 02 May 2018 14:24:08 +1200

I'll just leave this here...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/103558452/trumps-doctor-harold-bornstein-says-trump-dictated-letter-declaring-him-in-astonishingly-excellent-health

Dennis Frank

Tue, 01 May 2018 20:48:01 +1200

The new US Secretary of state has faith (in Jesus). He was sworn in Monday of last week. Tillerson's resignation took effect the first day of Easter, so Pompeo was in North Korea negotiating with the Supreme Leader during Easter weekend as acting-secretary. Pompeo's career path was West Point graduate,…

Dennis Frank

Tue, 01 May 2018 12:08:17 +1200

Yes & no. I was brainwashed by christians until age 13.5, when I told my mother I was never gonna go back to church or sunday school. To my eternal surprise, the usual thrashing from my father didn't happen. Transcendence was the result.

I suspect faith in something is a psychological…

Rich Lock

Mon, 30 Apr 2018 20:44:59 +1200

The use of politicized judicial processes to hound your opponents and re-litigate electoral outcomes you don’t like might now be business as usual now in the USA, but it just adds to the perceptions that much of what is reported in the MSM is fake news.

Mueller is a Republican,…

Dennis Frank

Mon, 30 Apr 2018 13:59:24 +1200

That cartoon captured the interpersonal mutuality of style well. Thomsen's piece has one notable reference to "international relations experts, whose discipline unashamedly admits that it believes cultural context doesn't matter." Anyone who thinks cultural context doesn't matter is so obviously a fool as to mask the fact that most i/r…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 30 Apr 2018 13:13:44 +1200

Well in that case they are on a hiding to nothing.

nzlemming

Mon, 30 Apr 2018 10:56:51 +1200

I thought the actual legal issue was the 130k given to Daniels should have been part of Trump’s campaign costs and declared as such?

That's what was covered up. Do keep up, Tom.

Tom Semmens

Mon, 30 Apr 2018 08:24:08 +1200

The issue is not who Trump slept with, but how and why he covered it up. The affairs and Cohen’s role in them may serve as a gateway into Cohen’s information, but they are not what’s at stake, at least according to the reports around the obtaining of the search…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 20:41:06 +1200

Today's David Rowe: Ditto Dotard.

Neil

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 19:44:58 +1200

One significant factor we know very little about is the regime’s internal dynamics. KJU is performing to two audiences – those outside NJ and those within the regime. He maintains power like any dictator – playing any potential opponents off and killing anyone who poses any threat. That creates a…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 12:21:02 +1200

As one commentator observes in the New York Times’ latest report, it’s Kim who’s running things here, it’s his show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLUF38_UY8

Russell Brown

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 12:05:08 +1200

This is good from Patrick Thomsen: It's time to centre Koreans in our analyses of the Korean peace process

South Koreans are well-aware of the slippery nature of DPRK diplomacy. Since I've been here, North Korea has sunk navy ships, shelled South Korean islands (both leading to significant loss of…

Russell Brown

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 11:10:01 +1200

That would depend on what you believe is really happening. As a number of commentators have noted, North Korea will be well aware of the example of what happened to Gaddafi once he renounced his rogue state ambitions.

As one commentator observes in the New York Times' latest report, it's…

nzlemming

Sun, 29 Apr 2018 01:11:55 +1200

But, I keep thinking, what does all this who-slept-with-who have to do with his ability to run the country and effect much needed change?

If his ongoing presidency is based on obtaining proof as to whether he is or is not a liar and a cheat of a husband ...…

Katharine Moody

Sat, 28 Apr 2018 20:04:06 +1200

There is a fascinating series on the 1970s on Prime TV at the moment.

Was that the series on the Vietnam War?

It was excellent. Plenty of TV clips of various POTUS' telling bare-faced lies straight down the camera. That office has made an occupation of how to be a…

Katharine Moody

Sat, 28 Apr 2018 19:49:32 +1200

You mean, no actual evidence apart from women's sworn statements, the original NDA – and whatever the FBI and the US Attorney in New York have obtained from months of surveillance of Cohen and the recent seizure of all his files?

But, I keep thinking, what does all this who-slept-with-who…

Joe Wylie

Sat, 28 Apr 2018 10:47:04 +1200

...maybe China threatening that strategy recently in behind the scenes diplomacy was what got the shift happening.
That would depend on what you believe is really happening. As a number of commentators have noted, North Korea will be well aware of the example of what happened to Gaddafi once he…

Dennis Frank

Sat, 28 Apr 2018 10:37:57 +1200

Oh yeah, forgot that. Interesting that the result was obtained via "United Nations Security Council Resolution 418 of 4 November 1977 introduced a mandatory arms embargo against South Africa, also requiring all states to refrain from "any co-operation with South Africa in the manufacture and development of nuclear weapons"."

Presumably…

nzlemming

Sat, 28 Apr 2018 00:37:51 +1200

Given it's Friday, here's an|interesting analysis of Kanye West this week by Ari Melber

https://youtu.be/bGeZyfcuo5Q

Rich Lock

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 21:21:56 +1200

presidential pardons all round, thank you very much

My understanding is that presidential pardons are limited to Federal crimes, not state/local crimes. I don't pretend to understand all the legal ins and outs, but the informed consensus seems to be that this is one the reasons that Mueller is filing…

Joe Wylie

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 20:25:33 +1200

...insofar as I don't recall any other nuclear state totally denuclearising...
South Africa.

Dennis Frank

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 20:04:19 +1200

North Korea has no intention of denuclearisation. Trump is talking up a nuclear pact that doesn't exist even as he prepares to wreck one, with Iran, that does.

Well, it would depend on the incentive, wouldn't it? But insofar as I don't recall any other nuclear state totally denuclearising, I…

Dennis Frank

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 19:46:41 +1200

Nothing there I disagree with, Tom. Both main parties in the USA got a reputation for shady dealings in the 19th century, both became notably corrupt during the 20th. The Bush dynasty have been personal friends and business partners with the bin Ladens through three generations in the oil industry,…

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 19:07:12 +1200

If you, like me, can't bear to listen to the Cheeto-in-Chief, here's a handy, annotated transcript, courtesy of the Washington Post.

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 18:53:35 +1200

So Avenatti's not all good. His dealings in the retail coffee business seem a bit questionable.

There's a difference between being good and being a good lawyer...

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 15:00:14 +1200

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtE0acRimSw

Russell Brown

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 14:59:18 +1200

So Avenatti's not all good. His dealings in the retail coffee business seem a bit questionable.

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 13:34:49 +1200

Yeah.

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 13:33:33 +1200

Special Master appointed in Cohen case

NEW YORK — A federal judge on Thursday appointed a special master to review material seized from the office and residences of President Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen, acceding to his request that an independent party review the material before federal prosecutors can…

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 12:06:36 +1200

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/989512203047911425
SDNY has ALREADY used Trump’s Fox & Friends interview this morning against him in a court filing

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 11:57:04 +1200

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/384974-stormy-daniels-attorney-trumps-comments-on-cohen-hugely-damaging

nzlemming

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 11:21:52 +1200

Trump has handed Avenatti a big ol’ present by going on Fox News and specifically associating himself with the Stormy case. The dumbest thing he could do would be to confirm that Cohen was acting for him on the matter of paying off the porn star. And he did it.…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 11:19:42 +1200

Trump is talking up a nuclear pact that doesn’t exist even as he prepares to wreck one, with Iran, that does.
Someone should ask Trump when his pals in Israel last allowed IAEA inspectors in to their nuclear sites – Iran has complied and honoured their side of the deal.

Russell Brown

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 10:25:16 +1200

Looks like playing tough with China worked for him – obviously little fat rocket man scurrying toward denuclearisation talks is due to China giving him a private warning of a significant withdrawal of their support.

North Korea has no intention of denuclearisation. Trump is talking up a nuclear pact that…

Russell Brown

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 10:20:54 +1200

Tom Semmens

Fri, 27 Apr 2018 07:57:36 +1200

I suspect he’s weathering the storm comfortably. Republican establishment attacks on him seem to have muted noticeably since election.

IMHO, none of the mud slinging over Trump’s private life adds up to anything remotely impeachable. Sure, Trump is clearly an unspeakable cad and a banal philanderer that no woman in…

BenWilson

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 23:32:55 +1200

Normally when a leader is weakening the fact is signalled loud & clear by the body language. None yet.

I think he honestly does not understand a lot of what is going on. He doesn't know if he's weak or strong because he does not have any real infrastructure in place…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 22:08:52 +1200

the dude in that video looks uncannily like Gerry Brownlee
Robbie Coltrane innit?
he made a Cracker Hagrid!

see:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/8341871/When-talent-quest-found-Brownlee

Rich Lock

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 20:33:49 +1200

As Avenatti predicted, Cohen is pleading the 5th in the Stormy Daniels case.

I'll just leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMyh7ko9L2g

Dennis Frank

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 19:14:40 +1200

Seems a feasible thesis but I'd be surprised. Normally when a leader is weakening the fact is signalled loud & clear by the body language. None yet.

I suspect he's weathering the storm comfortably. Republican establishment attacks on him seem to have muted noticeably since election. I see the shuffling of…

Bart Janssen

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 17:23:07 +1200

Impeachment by a simple majority (possible, maybe likely if the Democrats have a House majority after the mid-terms) but then conviction by a 2/3 majority in the Senate. Highly unlikely.

Agreed. But the key is that The GOP will cut him off when senators and congressmen lose their seats because…

nzlemming

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 17:21:21 +1200

Also of note, Trump's travel ban has reached the Supremes.

Bart Janssen

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 17:09:00 +1200

I’m fully expecting pictures of Trump naked, TBH. The guy is stupid enough for that.

Avenattii and Stormy have both broadly hinted as to the existence of dick pics. Ew.

I've said from the beginning this all ends with a Trump sex tape ... and you all thought the worst…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 17:05:58 +1200

I do not think the president will serve out his term

Impeachment by a simple majority (possible, maybe likely if the Democrats have a House majority after the mid-terms) but then conviction by a 2/3 majority in the Senate. Highly unlikely.

There is of course resignation or removal for incapacity.…

Moz

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 16:46:47 +1200

George Eliot's 'Eye-of-God' narrative voice

I was thinking a more ethereal female voice that that. Kate Bush, say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzqF_gBpS84

(and wow, the dude in that video looks uncannily like Gerry Brownlee)

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 16:32:48 +1200

There is a fascinating series on the 1970s on Prime TV at the moment. It’s actually only about the US in the 1970s and a bit later.

I wish I'd watched a bit more of this – it seems very instructive.

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 16:31:55 +1200

Russell, what’s your take on Dershowitz’s role as a talking head. On the one hand, he’s advising Trump privately, and then he’s going around telling news shows what he’s told Trump and saying “Cohen will flip on the President”.

Beyond "Dershowitz has been a weirdo for years", no idea.

But…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 16:27:45 +1200

a deep understanding of the construction of Middlemarch Hospital
George Eliot's 'Eye-of-God' narrative voice could sometimes gloss over finer details...
;- )

nzlemming

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 14:31:44 +1200

Russell, what's your take on Dershowitz's role as a talking head. On the one hand, he's advising Trump privately, and then he's going around telling news shows what he's told Trump and saying "Cohen will flip on the President". There's a very testy ABC This Week panel from the weekend…

nzlemming

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 14:25:47 +1200

That doesn't explain how the Trump Administration failed to do basic vetting on any nominee to oversee a vast, complex and deeply troubled federal agency

Totally agree. Let me be clear, I wasn't defending Jackson by saying Obama promoted him. I was genuinely asking why on earth Obama promoted him…

Moz

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 14:16:49 +1200

who go the Hill and fumble softball questions about the operation of their own departments.

That depends on why you think they were appointed. Cynics will suggest that to destroy a programme or department you don't need to know much about it.

Ask yourself whether deciding to grossly underfund health…

Craig Ranapia

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 13:57:34 +1200

Totally brutal. Why did Obama put him up for promotion if there was a negative IG report?

Yeah, this is the spin cycle the usual suspects on the right are pushing hard. But you know what, if any of this shit was happening under Obama's roof then shame on him…

BenWilson

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 12:01:18 +1200

I'm amused by the idea of Trump personally reading documents. By most accounts, this never happens if the document has more than 100 words on it.

nzlemming

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:40:23 +1200

Russell Brown, about 2 hours ago Email WebTwitter
The Dems’ memo on Ronny Jackson, the White House doctor Trump wants to head the Veterans’ Administration, is spectacular.

Totally brutal. Why did Obama put him up for promotion if there was a negative IG report?

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:39:13 +1200

Good grief:

In a filing Wednesday afternoon, attorneys for President Donald Trump told the federal judge overseeing the investigation of his personal attorney, Michael Cohen, that Trump would, as necessary, personally review documents to ensure that privileged information is not revealed accidentally to the FBI or prosecutors.

“…Our client will…

nzlemming

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:21:48 +1200

I've been watching US cable news shows on YouTube over the past few nights and I can't be bothered with the more partisan shows on MSNBC in particular (Lawrence O'Donnell is a windbag and even Maddow strains my patience these days). But they're at least reasonably grounded in observable reality…

Moz

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:12:23 +1200

has been weaponised by the arrival of social media

Not least by the terrorist attacks now increasingly commonplace. It used to be mostly limited to organised groups either for or against state actors, these days the techniques and technology are so widespread any moron can use them. And there are…

Moz

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:08:15 +1200

Speaking of the NYT, their main reporter on the "Hilary emails hack" has now said she feels bad about working for the Russians. Not as an employee, she was just a sucker. But she says she definitely worked hard to advance the Russian agenda against US interests.

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/new-york-times-reporter-making-stunning-admission-she-became-unwitting-agent

Gareth

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 11:03:20 +1200

On this whole "separate realities" thing: the roots go back a long way, and lie in a concerted effort to manipulate policy. In Naomi Oreskes' Merchants of Doubt, she tracks the efforts of think tanks and tobacco companies to delegitimise facts as a basis for policy. Selling doubt enabled the…

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 10:34:46 +1200

BREAKING: As Avenatti predicted, Cohen is pleading the 5th in the Stormy Daniels case.

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 09:57:22 +1200

The Dems’ memo on Ronny Jackson, the White House doctor Trump wants to head the Veterans’ Administration, is spectacular.

The guy who went on TV to make those unlikely-sounding claims about the President's robust health would appear to have a lot of issues.

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 09:31:25 +1200

In an environment where the so-called establishment, “respectable” corporate MSM itself creates, curates and assiduously grooms fake news
Putting the catamites amongst the pig-ignorant?

Russell Brown

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 09:05:37 +1200

The New York Times has published a column explaining how Mueller et al can get currently classified material into the public sphere if there is a purge.

Tom Semmens

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 07:29:39 +1200

A friend went down the rabbit hole over Syria – all based on material from social media.

I had to delete a FB friend who took great offense at my pointing out the inherent nonsense of the reports of new Russian wunderwaffe she kept posting up from dodgy news sites.…

Craig Ranapia

Thu, 26 Apr 2018 00:31:45 +1200

Trump seems to lack a moral compass from our perspective, but so what?

Jesus... Don't you find the chic, glib nihilism exhausting? Yeah, it does actually matter that people in high public office not only have a moral compass but some kind of functional relationship with reality, a grasp of…

Hilary Stace

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 21:16:43 +1200

There is a fascinating series on the 1970s on Prime TV at the moment. It's actually only about the US in the 1970s and a bit later. There is a lot about American politics. It has been interesting to watch the very slow fall of Nixon (he won a landslide…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 21:04:11 +1200

It almost all comes from whoever has his ear at the time.
His flirting with Macron was painful to watch and listen to today...

BenWilson

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 20:20:32 +1200

Trump seems to lack a moral compass from our perspective, but so what?

He's literally the most powerful man in the world.

Dennis Frank

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 19:24:52 +1200

Of course us kiwis find that stuff distasteful. But those Cohen/Russian links just look like US business as usual. Remember some New York bankers financed Lenin. Sure if would be good if capitalism weren't rotten to the core, but we live in the real world. The only evidence that counts…

Russell Brown

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 16:46:49 +1200

I’m fully expecting pictures of Trump naked, TBH. The guy is stupid enough for that.

Avenattii and Stormy have both broadly hinted as to the existence of dick pics. Ew.

But Avenatti has sucessfully made the case about the whole way the Trump organisation has worked for decades – that’s…

BenWilson

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 16:15:18 +1200

no actual evidence apart from ...

I'm fully expecting pictures of Trump naked, TBH. The guy is stupid enough for that.

I do not believe that is the “best” way to characterise Trump’s stance.

His stance changes constantly. Sometimes within a day. Sometimes within an interview. Sometimes within a sentence.

Joe Wylie

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 13:02:44 +1200

Some may appreciate this comic by Eli Valley – 'Schlonged' a wishful piece about Donald Trump's short presidency...

Goodness me. This presidential "enormous Johnson" schtick has quite a history (Safe for Work).

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:51:04 +1200

Some may appreciate this comic by Eli Valley – 'Schlonged' a wishful piece about Donald Trump's short presidency...
decidedly NSFW and may offend some among the faint-hearted.
http://www.elivalley.com/political-comics#/comics/schlonged-the-donald-trump-story/

I found it in 'The Best American Comics 2017' edited/curated by Ben Katchor & Bill Kartalopoulos
https://www.cbr.com/best-american-comics-2017-cover-reveal-1984/

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:44:33 +1200

Never knew till today what Incels were.
I've noticed an upsurge in people using their personality prophylactically – their wilful disengagement turns them into dissonancy boys.

Russell Brown

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:36:34 +1200

Best to read Trump’s stance in that light: genuinely anti-establishment, wanting to make America great again via regeneration of the economy and nationalism.

I do not believe that is the "best" way to characterise Trump's stance. To put it mildly.

Russell Brown

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:31:40 +1200

All very entertaining but just shadow-boxing really. Innuendo about hypothetical wrongdoing dressed up by top lawyers competing like knights jousting on primetime. No actual evidence, so media stories have to be composed of conjecture instead.

You mean, no actual evidence apart from women's sworn statements, the original NDA – and…

Russell Brown

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 12:28:21 +1200

A friend went down the rabbit hole over Syria – all based on material from social media.

My partner got trapped into a conversation with such a person at a party on Saturday. Nice enough chap otherwise, but lordy.

Neil

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 11:01:00 +1200

“Dissenting Narratives”

A friend went down the rabbit hole over Syria – all based on material from social media.

It’s s bit chicken and egg, there’s an audience that has a willingness to believe but absent of these new sources of other peoples’ views I’m sure my friend would have…

andin

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 10:42:51 +1200

media stories have to be composed of conjecture instead.

Gossip raised to fact, just by the reading of it on a news channel.
The only difference from primitive village gossip is, we now have things called tv & radio news programmes to do the dirty work for us.
Watching the US…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 09:45:35 +1200

If you read the deep-state thesis as competing interest groups within the US political/economic establishment…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 09:18:16 +1200

Reagan repealed the Fairness doctrine requirimg media to present balanced news.
a faux pas otherwise known as the 'Fox Pass'
'Fair and balanced'!? Meh!

Rich Lock

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 04:38:54 +1200

That was good. Thanks Russell. More please.

My own modest contribution to this discussion: https://extranewsfeed.com/trumps-dilemma-the-reason-why-either-trump-or-michael-cohen-will-definitely-wind-up-in-prison-b0c0dd89e374

No quite sure how much of it is satire/hyperbole (the stuff about the bar exam, for example), but the author definitely seems to think that Cohen will flip to save his own skin, and thus…

oga

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 02:22:35 +1200

That decline into partisan media started when Reagan repealed the Fairness doctrine requiring media to present balanced news.

Craig Ranapia

Wed, 25 Apr 2018 00:21:13 +1200

I mean, Giuliani yesterday doubled down on his claim that Hillary Clinton was nowhere to be seen at Ground Zero after the 9/11 attacks. There are not only hundreds of pictures of her there, there are multiple pictures of her there with Giuliani.

Sure, but here's the thing. I think…

Moz

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 20:43:57 +1200

lends itself to arguments of the form – “I spend my life attacking Hillary but I’m not pro-Trump”

I work with one. He was completely unable to say that he would prefer "shillary" as president but would always preface his attacks with "Trump is worse but...". Mind you, he's also…

Russell Brown

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 20:14:03 +1200

Today’s The 11th Hour With Brian Williams is pretty good. Ashley Parker and Robert Costa of the Washington Post are both very interesting. I’m kind of amazed at the level these guys operate at. They’re reporting and writing all day, then turning up and being articulate on night-time TV.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAzDDcF7C9o&t=603s

Neil

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 18:13:35 +1200

I’ve been watching US cable news shows on YouTube over the past few nights…

I think the rise of social media has exacerbated the problem. Not sure why but it lends itself to arguments of the form – “I spend my life attacking Hillary but I’m not pro-Trump”, “I spend…

Bart Janssen

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 16:06:41 +1200

suggesting that voting might not be the best way to select

Unless what you are measuring is popularity then voting is never the best way to select anyone for any job.

It is however, not the worst way.

Moz

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 15:53:09 +1200

Actually, someone should plant that one in the Don's head: when you've made Amerikkka great again, will you resign?

If Bush the Lesser can declare "Mission Accomplished", surely Trump can declare "America is Great"?

Moz

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 15:50:36 +1200

and the partisan courts, the partisan government agencies and partisan politics all the way down to school boards.

Are you suggesting that voting might not be the best way to select judges and election officials?

America is what it is because of the enormous amount of democracy. And freedom. They're…

Roger

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 15:02:03 +1200

Years of decline into partisan media

That; and the partisan courts, the partisan government agencies and partisan politics all the way down to school boards.

Russell Brown

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 13:07:04 +1200

How do you think this sad state of affairs has come about?

Years of decline into partisan media, accelerated by the appearance of a candidate who simply has no concept of truth.

I mean, Giuliani yesterday doubled down on his claim that Hillary Clinton was nowhere to be seen at…

John Morrison

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 12:29:36 +1200

I thought he overreached earlier, but he hasn't so far. I hope his predictions come true.

A question about your line America in 2018 is a country with no agreed set of facts to unite over. How do you think this sad state of affairs has come about?

Public Address

Tue, 24 Apr 2018 12:29:36 +1200

Discussion from blog post.