But it makes the voters *feel* like something's being done, Rich. Something suitably Old Testament, whether it actually works or not.

I know. But it was a half-arsed attempt on my part to show that even if you engage with the argument on it's own terms, it still doesn't stack…

(a) The DPB doesn't ever seem to have been an issue in this case, although Brown was a sickness beneficiary. Mental illness? At any rate, it's a hard counterfactual to argue, because ...

It was more a counterpoint to the notion that the DPB is the problem; the DPB was…

All that's needed is the simple statement that no new DPB recipients will be accepted after six months, and that the DPB itself will cease once the children of all existing recipients reach school age.
That shouldn't be so hard, should it?

I have come late to this thread but…

If having no DPB was to reduce crime, we ought to see less crime before 1974, and an increase over the period since then.

The exact opposite of what actually happened.

(a) The DPB doesn't ever seem to have been an issue in this case, although Brown was a sickness…

The exact opposite of what actually happened.

The man who murdered Good Samaritan Austin Hemmings in central Auckland spent eight years in an Australian jail for stabbing and killing his estranged girlfriend.

He was also jailed in New Zealand on three separate occasions for knife incidents dating back to 1987.

Is there any information available about his…

According to the Herald, the Government plans to amend the Crimes Act to increase the maximum penalty for possession of an offensive weapon from two years in jail to three.

Ok, fine. That's 'doing something'. But it's hard to see how it…

Or, to put it another way, he was "quiet and god-fearing, apparently".

Clearly not, it's now apparent.

Or, "Maybe we will discover that the man has a criminal history"

Thing was, it was principally a history of domestic violence. He stabbed his ex-girlfriend to death. For all Cresswell's wailing about…

The man who murdered Good Samaritan Austin Hemmings in central Auckland spent eight years in an Australian jail for stabbing and killing his estranged girlfriend.

He was also jailed in New Zealand on three separate occasions for knife incidents dating back to 1987.

Or, to put it another way, he…

The comparison with road death reporting is interesting. Here in the UK we just get obsessive reporting of young, usually black, urbanites knifing each other and there is a panic over it

i can't double-check the stat right now because the person who showed it to me is out of…

Much as I admire the actions of Austin Hemmings I doubt very much that he expected a knife attack, that sort of thing is not that common in church circles. So being stabbed would have, probably, been the last thing on his mind.

I can see it now. A rash…

"Some victims get satisfaction seeing the criminal suffer as much as they can. They need to have some different way of dealing with the hurt."

A restorative justice facilitator adds: "Harsher penalties are not in fact what heals victims, but are presented…

Not only will there be no domestic murders in the post-welfare world, but everyone will have a pony.

That is wonderful.

Brazil has, until very recently, had nothing that might be conceivably be called a welfare system and yet has also had violent crime rates (including domestic crime) that utterly dwarf ours. What's more the poor, despite not being "paid to have children" have done so there with quite some…

The offender appears to have no criminal history

Interesting point: has that been verified?

Sorry, my bad. Misremembered this article. He wasn't on bail or parole. The way it's written suggests that he may have been "known to the police", as they say.

Either way, if he wasn't out on bail…

You might be content to rest on your "it's only domestic violence" defence ...

I almost ignored this, because it's clearly not a statement made in good faith: ie, it's a troll.

But I will anyway. If you're going to talk about an increase in violent crime, it makes…

The offender appears to have no criminal history

Interesting point: has that been verified?

Matthew, you ask, "What needs to change that would have prevented this latest tragedy?"

Well, read my response. You don't expect to be spoon-fed, do you?

I've read it, again, and I'm still unsure what you think the police should've done to prevent it. Yes, yes, I know you wank…

The whole DPB enables domestic violence argument turns…

All that's needed is the simple statement that no new DPB recipients will be accepted after six months, and that the DPB itself will cease once the children of all existing recipients reach school age.

That shouldn't be so hard, should it?

Yes, because all lower-class women (heck, all women,…

Peter, I respect your preferences in regard to phasing out the DPB, I'm sure many would agree. Unfortunately, I don't really see it lowering incidences of violent crime; in fact it might, y'know, make shit worse.

If only because those most affected would disproportionately be victims of crime.

Peter, I respect your preferences in regard to phasing out the DPB, I'm sure many would agree. Unfortunately, I don't really see it lowering incidences of violent crime; in fact…

No, they're paid for both.

And in answer to Michael, who says, "__if Peter is going to imagine the benefits of the poor not being…

My conclusion is that it'll take capitalisation and at least three exclamation points to reduce the murder rate. Probably more.

Peter, you must try harder, it's almost as if you don't care.

No. Are you?

And might I point out that the chief victims of your "systemic disadvantage" were the the children of parents who were paid to have them, and who then went on to kill them.

How…

Enough! of the Global credit crisis.
Enough! of shitty mainstream media.
Enough! of war.

Ah, that feels better. I'm off for a coffee.

...imaginarary

I like it. Unintentionally more insulting than you intended!

Apropos the "then we'd see slashings" answer, well actually…

Currently there is a man-hunt going on in Christchurch for a clean cut part-maori with a semi-automatic pistol carrying a black bag who has just robbed a bank in Cathedral Square and while the cops…

Indeed I do have a fairly cogent understanding of Rand's philosophy. But I try not to imagine such apocalyptic scenarios so soon after lunch ;)

BTw, are you, or anyone you respect getting some of that Working for Families gravy? Anybody giving it back in disgust?

And John Key's…

And might I point out that the chief victims of your "systemic disadvantage" were the the children of parents who were paid to have them, and who then went on to kill them.

How…

Well, read my response. You don't expect to be spoon-fed, do you? ;^)

Well, in…

Eugenics? Please. Hyperbole never helps an argument. And you being offended by the facts doesn't alter them.

Well it can help make a unimaginative argument more amusing. But point taken.

What does offend me is your seeming unwillingness to engage with the elephants. It's not enough to say enough is…

We may differ on the concrete details, but I'm surprised you appear to dismiss without argument this second point – the need to say "Enough!" And I'm disappointed you and your readers appear to think the status quo is good enough.

It's not.

No, it's not, but fulminating won't change…

RUSSELL: There are two separate issues here.

You say that "not a single thing" I suggest would have prevented the murders in question. Well, the murders I have in mind are those…

Basically you want a couple of things. One, a stiffening of both our attitude and response to criminal behaviour. Fair call.

Two, Eugenics. Or, if that fails, the economic genocide of "no-hopers" and their malevolent offspring.

Not really quite so fair.

Oops, I'll try that again.
Why not read my response, and find out.

I read it, Peter. There's a lot of fulminating, the inevitable quoting of Ayn Rand, the equally inevitable victim-play (please don't compare yourself with murder victims, even metaphorically, just because someone finds fault with your argument) and…

Accident and emergency doctors today call for the banning of long, sharp kitchen knives, arguing they account for at least half of all stabbings...
Knives "of less than 5cm [2ins] in length" or with blunt, round ends would meet culinary needs and be far less likely to result in fatalities.…

Why not read my response, and find out.

Accident and emergency doctors today call for the banning of long, sharp kitchen knives, arguing they account for at least half of all stabbings...

Knives "of less than 5cm [2ins] in length" or with blunt, round ends would meet culinary needs and be far less likely to result in fatalities.

…

it's high time there was a decent response to this number of murders from the agency whose sole moral justification is the protection of people's lives and liberties.

And just what would you have them do that would have effectively prevented any of those 51 murders?

Let us turn to Britain for a sensible solution to knife crime

gngn after all I just said :)

Carrying a Knife over 4 inches (about 10cm) was a crime (well, sort of – Graeme can fill you in on the subtleties I'm sure) in Britain when I was a…

No, trying to make a wider point.

As far as I got, he never actually engaged Russell's criticism about the knife attacks being domestic incidents, but just brought out loopy talking points.

I guess one man's loopy talking points are another man's cogent arguments, eh, Kyle?

No, I never specifically engaged Russell's criticism about the knife attacks…

Fortunately for me, the knives in this case are just metaphorical. I say that because five Aucklanders and their families and friends are less fortunate than I — five people including Austin Hemmings have died from real knife attacks in Auckland city since mid-July.

Was he trying to miss the…

Fortunately for me, the knives in this case are just metaphorical. I say that because five Aucklanders and their families and friends are less fortunate than I — five people including Austin Hemmings have died from real knife attacks in Auckland city since mid-July

Let us turn to Britain for…

Cresswell has responded.

I stopped reading when he kept bringing up the government forcing him to pay for no-hopers to breed.

As far as I got, he never actually engaged Russell's criticism about the knife attacks being domestic incidents, but just brought out loopy talking points.

Fortunately for me, the knives in this case are just metaphorical. I say that because five Aucklanders and their families and friends are less fortunate than I — five people including Austin Hemmings have died from real knife attacks in Auckland city since mid-July — not to…

"They're full of mercury you know and when you break them you have to take them to a special dump" she said, proud of her empirical knowledge.

for the record i heard they contain less mercury than a tube of toothpaste. and certainly less than a amalgam filling.

People want to believe that crime is on the rise

There was some research recently indicating people who were more easily alarmed by various shocking pictures were mor elikely to vote republican.

The researcher considered it might help people recognise that sincere people can differ.

You may recall me trying vainly to point out during the allegedly out-of-control wave of murders in South Auckland this year

I do indeed – in fact I rely on PA (and the system) not only to expand my understanding of what is going on, but also to gently research…

I signed up to the thing to see what he had to say, got nothing for ages and then he invited me along to the movies

A suitably violent one?

There's a lot of bullshit that get talked about crime — and perverted statistical molestation — all over

For example, Jonathan Coleman telling us about all that rising crime & violence in his email newsletter from last week.

I signed up to the thing to see what he had to say,…

You could also surmise along these lines with respect to the 1970s crime wave: the baby-boomer cohort reached crime-committing age.

The 'Freakanomics' guy has already surmised at some length along these lines.

Links for those interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freakonomics

You could equally argue that taking police of criminal investigative duties and putting them on street beats (something a lot of crime nuts would be in favour of) reduces dedicated criminal investigation, in favour of general policing.

Only if you actually take CIB staff and stick them back on general…

Craig, my comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek, but a number of the people I know who like John Key insist that crime is totally out of control regardless of the evidence.

Matthew: There's a lot of bullshit that get talked about crime — and perverted statistical molestation — all over. And…

National signed off on this, but it wasn't just National's idea. It came from within the police, as follows the international trend of having traffic policed by the same people that police other infringements and crimes in society. NZ was really out of whack with international best-practice.

And I think…

And before that there was the "wave" of murders in January that were pretty much in line with normal summer trends

fatalities of all kinds spike during the summer months.

Poor old Annette King was mocked for pointing out that we kill each other in the hot sun, but she was actually right.

I thought most of the mocking was around the full moon argument...

Basically I couldn't resolve the outright lies presented as news with my understanding of the facts.

You may recall me trying vainly to point out during the allegedly out-of-control wave of murders in South Auckland this year that the murder rate in Manukau police district had actually plummeted in the…

I'm far from convinced, not least because last time National promised to do something like increasing police numbers we ended up losing dedicated traffic cops.

National signed off on this, but it wasn't just National's idea. It came from within the police, as follows the international trend of having traffic…

You could also surmise along these lines with respect to the 1970s crime wave: the baby-boomer cohort reached crime-committing age.

would be interesting to see what proportion of the reported crimes were drug-related.

- People are reporting more violence to the police, resulting in more convictions (my pick).

I think there are two main factors.

One is the increased likelihood of the reporting of family and household violence. This seems to have been driven by the public awareness campaigns and a change in…

It's astonishing to me how going without TV re-regulates your brain.... But no commercial TV.

Same. We've been sans drivel for about 3 years.

The trigger for me was moving into a job where I am exposed to raw information about the criminal, social and economic landscape in NZ, specifically…

Basically, there's been a small increase in violent crime reported in the last 10 years.

However, I wouldn't take that at face value.

The most serious violent crime is murder. It's also the most indisputable and reliable statistic. Murder just doesn't go unreported.

Now see…

My guess is that we have a perception of control over our risk of death in a car

strangely, what both car crash and murder have in common is the invasion of my personal space by another individual.

but as you say, there is the misnomer that we can control…

Politics and Punitiveness: Overcoming the Criminal Justice Dilemma

It's on Monday 20 October in LT2 of Old Government Buildings.

More…

From the Herald this morning, quoting a researcher on something that has always been apparent to anyone prepared to look up the numbers:

Crime rocketed in the 1970s and has been trending down since.

I blame the baby boomers.

Well the usual retort to this is: crime down is great…

I don't think people like being irrationally scared, per se, I just don't believe many people step back to evaluate their feelings against empirical evidence.

Hence my comment about "want[ing] to believe that crime is on the rise". Nobody wants to believe they're irrational, so feeling unsafe and believing that…

Crime rocketed in the 1970s and has been trending down since.

I blame the baby boomers.

People want to believe that crime is on the rise, at least in part because they want "that nice Mr Key" to swoop in...

Oh, fucking hell Matthew... Do you just go to your happy place every time Phill Goff starts chuntering on about prison numbers?

We've been cold turkey on broadcast TV for a couple of years now...The TV news looked like Kabuki to me. Not just the heavy make-up and the weird costumes and sets, but the stylized gestures, the elaborate turns of phrase, the heightened artificiality of the whole thing

oh, i hear…

drop your tv viewing to only what's absolutely necessary.

It's astonishing to me how going without TV re-regulates your brain, and also astonishing how long it takes and how quickly it can be undone again.

We've been cold turkey on broadcast TV for a couple of years now (for various…

It genuinely surprises me that someone with such apparently tasteful consideration of all things architectural, artistic and beer-tastic can be so rabidly myopic about the ability of the state to control the…

On…

If the silly apes see a lot of pictures of leopards, they will not distinguish them from real leopards, and will think about them all the time, and be extremely careful in case there is a leopard about.

although in cresswell's case it's probably parnell ladies with leopard-skin handbags. he's…

There is an abundance of research out there showing that your brain makes irrational shortcuts which are very useful to your survival as a savannah ape, and somewhat of a hindrance in a technological environment, and this sort of fear partly stems from that.

Kathy Sierra had some related stuff…

I just don't believe many people step back to evaluate their feelings against empirical evidence.

Difficult when you're an ape and your best achievements in life are the opposable thumb and using twigs as a tool to eat bugs.

People want to believe that crime is on the rise

Nah, I'm not buying that.

I think we are apes, programmed at a fairly low level to watch out for leopards. In a handy shortcut, if we see an image of a leopard we are aroused (anything that looks like…

I have to explain that unlike where I used to…