context is king.

Indeed, and apologies for not making the context clearer.

Once again, just their way of handling the nuances of dealing with a demanding media?

Not that far from the nightly news bulletins where the polisi can be seen dragging their latest suspects from the cells, bruised and…

. . . a ploy by the authorities to illustrate just how normal, despite his narrowly held fundamentalist ravings, Top was.

Once again, just their way of handling the nuances of dealing with a demanding media?

Charming. Abso-fucken-lutely charming.

I think you miss the point. In Indonesia there is little real bigotry against homosexuals, and this has nothing whatsoever to to with the Islamic mores of the masses here. Homosexuality and transsexuality are both legal and widely accepted in Indonesia, perhaps more so than many Western…

blows against the empire...?
no Krakatau, no Islam

But, volcanoes, earthquakes or whatever, holding this country transfixed right now is the first release from the Noordin Top autopsy. It seems that the fundamentalist terror hero of parts of central Java (where his poster keeps appearing in the streets, and the…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1aYGkHTt3Y&feature=player_embedded

Of course there has already been huge sea rises since the last real ice age (you used to…

We've known for years that volcanic eruptions cause global cooling a la nuclear wnter but not the reverse.

So how long until Bob Carter or someone suggests that even if the globe does warm, it'll end up setting off a few volcanoes that will inject a bunch of fine particulates…

It may take a while to happen – but is cause for concern. It does mean it is more likely that earth changes can happen catastrophically rather than gradually for example.

Chaos theory would concur. The ability of chaotic systems to flip from one strange attractor to another at unpredictable…

Even slight changes in weather and climate can rip the planet's crust apart, unleashing the furious might of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and landslides

Well, landslides are kind of a no-brainer. They could well be onto something with the rest of it, but I'd be very interested to see comparisons ofworldwide…

I believe what Andre is getting at is the recent research which suggests that climate change and the warming of the seas and atmosphere is having an effect on the earth's tectonic plates.

Interesting, but given the scales involved, deeply unlikely to have an appreciable impact on things like eruption…

Just interested in how climate change can be linked to volcanes
I am aware that volcanoes can change the climate but the other way round or are you thinking of the raising of the sea level

What exactly are you getting at with the climate change, out of curiosity?

I…

aren't Volcanoes great generators of CO2?

The major CO2 input to the atmosphere pre-humanity, yeah, but the sulphates and dust cancel out the warming (c.f. Pinatubo and the dip in the warming trend in the early '90s.)

blows against the empire...?
no Krakatau, no Islam

But, volcanoes, earthquakes or whatever, holding this country transfixed right now is the first release from the Noordin Top autopsy. It seems that the fundamentalist terror hero of parts of central Java (where his poster keeps appearing in the streets, and the…

no Krakatau, no Islam

If the mountain will not come to Muhammad,
Muhammad will go to the mountain...?

more adjusting to the inevitable...
Krakatau venting... – history repeating?

re climate adjustment by Vulcan –
aren't Volcanoes great generators of CO2?
and smoke and uther particulate screening...…

The mad Imams are saying it's all because Indonesia is not devout enough....

Perhaps they've been reading David Keys's Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World, in which he suggests an earlier eruption of Krakatau as the culprit behind the historical global climatic catastrophe of around A.D.…

The fact that climate change is also affecting the whole scenario makes volcanoes even more of an issue... and other than the Auckland Museum's marvellous exhibit we seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room.

What exactly are you getting at with the climate change, out of curiosity? The…

The fact that climate change is also affecting the whole scenario makes volcanoes even more of an issue..

Just interested in how climate change can be linked to volcanes
I am aware that volcanoes can change the climate but the other way round or are you thinking of the…

So it's unlikely that one of the existing 49 will go up. Just a new one somewhere in-between them all.

I'd long been under the impression that it's accepted that, in Auckland's case, the volcanic devils we know are of interest only for historical and urban planning reasons?

How about the fact that warming of the sea and atmosphere results in increased volcanic activity and causes other changes in the earth's crust: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327273.800

Auckland has a plume below it that seems like it will react faster to changes…

Bloody hell. Those poor bastards. As if they haven't been through enough, already.

To quote myself (from Twitter):

5 years after the Tsunami I can not even begin to imagine the horror these folks in Sumatra felt yesterday, even though Padang was spared 2004.

It did however, suffer a fairly…

Back in 2003 there was a move by local residents and developers to bulldoze the dunes along Christchurch's Brighton-North Beach foreshore in order to 'enhance' the area.

Yes, because that worked a treat at Omaha.

I think GNS do things better now

Considerably better if i do say so myself. (although keeping gear running on an actively erupting volcano as White Island was during the 80's and 90's takes a far amount of effort).
Prior to GeoNet it took several days to locate an earthquake…

the Government has decided that maximising their profit is in the best public interest.

Profit which is, by the way, 89.2 per cent [!] down on last year, "largely due to a $17.1 million fall in advertising revenue..."

Even a bit of an update at each ad break, which would…

it was a national emergency and TVNZ are a public broadcaster.

You'd expect that. But no, they're a commercial broadcaster, like TV3. It just happens that they are owned by the Government (you and I), and the Government has decided that maximising their profit is in the best public interest.…

I give you that a lot of people don't much care about foreign disasters, rating them less interesting than local weather conditions.

Haven't been following this much, but I reckon the number of Samoans living here makes it a more "local" story than most exotic disaster pron.

Ross, I'm still noting that a lot of smaller more isolated spots are basically not returning much information. That was a huge part of the earlier unaccounted casualties in 2004

Yes, you're right there. But, and it's a big but, this isn't Indonesia plus a number of other countries. We're…

Wow – You felt it too!!! Who published first???

BTW. Did anyone hear the Civil Defence guy on Checkpoint last night in response to the Tutukaka harbour eye witness of a few minutes earlier?

"We expect their local CD to modify…

The DSIR officially blamed the fallout from the constant eruptions, but then the seismothingy on land also kept breaking.

One of the worst shakes we had there – right on…

Predictions like that are made to be broken. First report I heard was of 14 dead. A lot of the lag is around 'confirmed dead', rather than just 'missing'

Does anyone remember the first news bulletin of the Boxing Day Tsunami said that there was "1 dead"?…

But being concerned about what's actually going to happen here is not outrageous

Well, yesterday I certainly put off my visit to the library (which is literally one minute away from Takapuna Beach) for a few hours. And I was seriously pissed off to see the photos in the SMN…

well AFTER it was clear there was no serious risk here and the impact in Samoa had become widely reported.

I give you that a lot of people don't much care about foreign disasters, rating them less interesting than local weather conditions. A tsunami is certainly a very interesting thing,…

Splitting a people in half for the purpose of what exactly? So the USA can have a Guam in the South Pacific?

the leading points of discussion still centred around ZOMG I WONDER WHAT THE SURF AT GIZZY WILL BE LIKE?

And I really don't believe that as a whole we are that self-centred and shallow.

I don't either, and I wonder why you formed that impression. Most of the leading points…

this Padang earthquake is looking like something pretty bad. Thousands under buildings they say

From an alert email I've seen, the population density in the area is 36 people/km^2. For comparison, Dunedin has a PD of 37.1 people/km^2. And if I'm reading it correctly (the formatting is all screwed…

Because even well after it became clear that hundreds of people were killed and villages destroyed in a country which is pretty "close to home" for NZ, the leading points of discussion still centred around ZOMG I WONDER WHAT THE SURF AT GIZZY WILL BE LIKE?

And I…

this Padang earthquake is looking like something pretty bad. Thousands under buildings they say

sigh.....

That's not to make light of the very serious situation further north in the pacific

Because even well after it became clear that hundreds of people were killed and villages destroyed in a country which is pretty "close to home" for NZ, the leading points of…

Following the counter intuitive truth of Politics. Can John Key reinstate Samoans with Permanent residency?

I'm just worried about my kids' families.

Shit Jackie, hope they're OK.

Strange in these days of the global village, when it goes down it seems so much more alarming than in the days of letters posted.

Thoughts with you.

I often think that when the Big One comes odds…

Te Papa is very crowded today being a wet day in the school holidays. Awesome Forces section particularly busy with people examining the giant tectonic plate globe.

I often think that when the Big One comes odds are somebody will be in a the earthquake house at Te Papa and…

I'd like to hear other's opinions, but from Sydney, like JP Hansen says above, the news and CD appeared to be saying the waves had…

Predictions like that are made to be broken.

Yes, they are. But the reports just don't sound as dramatic as the ones that were coming after the '04 tsunami. I could be wrong, but it sounds like, fortunately, evacuations took place fairly swiftly in a lot of areas.

You're right that the final death toll will grow for a while yet, but it's unlikely to grow ten-fold.

Predictions like that are made to be broken. First report I heard was of 14 dead. A lot of the lag is around 'confirmed dead', rather than just 'missing'.

Samoa was…

At least 40. I recall the way the death toll in 2004 continued to mount for several days afterwards – the first I heard it was somewhere around 25,000 people, by the end it was well over 200,000.

Remembering that Indonesia is one of the most-populated nations on the planet…

Dilworth's endowment is enormous

Phnaar, phnaar. Although I did hear that all the money came from the inventor of the near-eponymous sex aid.

BTW, water levels in downtown Wellington haven't gone over one or two centimetres as yet.

This is the real issue isn't it?

Abso-fucken-lutely.
Quietly amazed about how people continue to go on about strong outflows in Tutukaka when 40 people just got killed.

They have a nominal txt alert system in place but only those that registered for the "off peak" got them this morning. Obviously rush hour commuters can just ride the waves.

Ah. There really might be another one coming

And reading the linked story I see this gem...

Deputy Prime Minister Bill English was returning to Wellington from his home in Dipton to deal with the situation. He was expected to update media this afternoon.

I know acts of nature prompt…

That Tutukaka video is crazy. "Ohmygod, thus us massuve!" Like Ben, I'd be thinking of the headline over here and hoofing it.

Personally I'd be running, not videoing.

That's some good ol' koiwoi stoicism there.

That Tutukaka vid is pretty neat, although I have seen similar flows in estuaries at any half-tide. The problem is, if that is right now, the tide should be coming in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWIhOcrzFqw

Personally I'd be running, not videoing.

It's done that a few times, dropping out for a few minutes, then coming back on the next refresh. That seems to hint that the data is being delayed somehow, but that the guages are still recording.

Quite probably, but it is still just a wee bit disconcerting when your…

The Tsunami gauges on Raoul Island don't seem to be providing updated info. Fingers crossed it is only a technical hitch with the geonet site...

It's done that a few times, dropping out for a few minutes, then coming back on the next refresh. That seems to hint that the…

Tide gauges had measured a wave of 40cm on the East Cape and 25-30cm on the North Cape.

"However it is not certain whether this is the largest wave that will impact New Zealand," the ministry…

The Tsunami gauges on Raoul Island don't seem to be providing updated info. Fingers crossed it is only a technical hitch with the geonet site...

I remember a big shake off Tonga just after Xmas in the late 70s. Camping grounds got evacuated etc but nothing eventuated.

But the next high tide did a huge amount of damage (those coastal property values...)

You can't really use the "we get bigger storm tides than that" argument when it comes to these types of phenomena..... it's showing a bit more on the geonet gauges now so looks like intial wave arrival times were a bit out.

I was thinking much the same thing -…

And often, being the good Anglican school that they are, give the air of faint embarrassment at being the target of Tolley's 'let's-shovel-lots-of-money-to-poor-little-rich-private-schools' crusade.

Thankfully for them when it comes to prat-ish behaviour exhibited by those in power (developers, politicians) Kings gets fingered and rightly so.

Dilworth is, of course,…

Sacha, Dilworth's endowment is enormous, [snip!]. Dilworth could survive without any government funding, and aren't known for crying "poor, poor" in any case.

And often, being the good Anglican school that they are, give the air of faint embarrassment at being the target of Tolley's 'let's-shovel-lots-of-money-to-poor-little-rich-private-schools' crusade.

Thankfully for them…

As suggested earlier (10.36), I'm pretty sure the waves then being recorded at Raoul Island at heights of up to c.60 cm or so will be those reflected back off the various islands of Samoa

This is interesting, so the actual Tsunami doesn't register on the Graph at all but…

Not tsunami related, but gosh those private schools clearly need the recent cash injection from govt.

Luxury hotel and spa Hotel du Vin has been sold to Dilworth School for an undisclosed figure and is to be converted into a rural campus.

Sacha, Dilworth's endowment is enormous, to the point…

you know I think the data on the tsunami warning map is running an hour or so later than real time ....

Either that or Civil Defense is about to get very embarrased.
On the map North Cape is just starting to flicker

As suggested earlier (10.36), I'm pretty sure…

What Don said about being more at risk within Wellington harbour.
This from Te Ara's excellent entry on NZ's tsunami history (about the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake:)

About 20 minutes after the earthquake, tsunami waves surged into Wellington Harbour through its narrow entrance, then for many hours bounced repeatedly back and…

you know I think the data on the tsunami warning map is running an hour or so later than real time ....

I was thinking that too, but now it looks like Civil Defence and NZ Herald completely screwed the pooch. I hope no one gets injured.

Luxury hotel and spa Hotel du Vin has been sold to Dilworth School for an undisclosed figure and is to be converted into a rural campus.

Gawd, Yamis – you're right. No laughing matter in Samoa.

At least it sounds like they had a decent evacuation plan going. It could have been much, much worse.

you know I think the data on the tsunami warning map is running an hour or so later than real time ....

Either that or Civil Defense is about to get very embarrased.

On the map North Cape is just starting to flicker

Joe: what exquisite taste in humour.

No, but I think that somethings wrong with the spelling.

Nah, that's the kind of tsunami you get in a vat of soy sauce – or maybe just a large wave chocka with anchovies.

oh wait, that's the SST

I for one can't wait for the Herald's inevitable "You're Vuze on What Should be Dun About All These Sunami's"

Send them back to Samoa! Damn immigants.

OK, I'm utterly confused. The Harold is reporting a 90cm wave hit East Cape sometime this morning, but those Geonet graphs show it hitting Raoul Island 5 minutes ago (so 30-60mins from NZ)

At least one is wrong. Which is it?

In a dispute between the vast news-gathering machine of…

And, for once, kudos to the media — or at least RNZ — whose coverage has been informative, restrained and untainted by disaster pron. [snip!]. I'm afraid to look at The Herald, though.

and

Unless you happen to be wandering along the mud flats at the time?

A few million…

At least one is wrong. Which is it?

I love that original tweet. Not waving, but clowning.

The wave seems to be just showing on the Geonet gauges.

Given that, does that mean the arrvial times are out by an hour?

And, for once, kudos to the media — or at least RNZ — whose…

Unless you happen to be wandering along the mud flats at the time?

A few million periwinkles will get the ride of their lives...

He's the sort who stands in an earthquake soaking in the data while everyone else is running round flapping.

;-)

Estimates are that wave height will be about a metre. Which is less than the volume of ordinary tidal change. Anywhere that's got a low tide is definitely safe. This includes Auckland city, which will be at dead low tide at 11:10.

Unless you happen to be wandering along the…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Petrie

Poor old Dunedin. Always the last to know.

To the great sorrow of my husband, who is 500 metres from a beach as I type, and doubtless heading for some vantage point from which to be disappointed at the non-event.

He's the sort who stands in an earthquake soaking in…

Higher Ground – the Wonder not the Chilli verson

Interesting. Tauranga is not mentioned and it is a big low lying city........Could really be a Bay of Plenty

Oddly enough this story appeared in the BoP times a week or so ago.

"reports of numerous surfers heading to coast in gisborne"

Do they do mass Darwins? Or is this one just considered too easy, like DUI or playing with matches on a petrol station forecourt?

The Fire Service is certainly taking it very seriously. A bunch of appliances from coastal stations in the Bay of Plenty/Waikato have been instructed to move "to [a] safe location"

There were several engines parked up in Mt Victoria this morning for no apparent reason. I suppose that is what…

"reports of numerous surfers heading to coast in gisborne"

Do they do mass Darwins? Or is this one just considered too easy, like DUI or playing with matches on a petrol station forecourt?

Of course.

About 20 minutes after the earthquake, tsunami waves surged into Wellington Harbour through its narrow entrance, then for many hours bounced repeatedly back and…

Robinson asked if everyone had moved to higher ground. Yes, replied the correspondent, except for him as he had to stay to report…

If the waves come from the north, why do the arrival times in Auckland come after those in Wellington?

Check out the animation of the Indian Ocean tsunami: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake#Tsunami_characteristics

See how it bends and lenses around land masses? Hence the different arrival times.

Relax. Tsunami waves travel at jet-plane speed across deep ocean. The epicentre is 190 km SW of PagoPago across deep ocean – less than half an hour away. The earthquake was at 6.48am our time and the all clear should have been issued before 7.30.

Not quite, Chris. It's thousands…

East Cape at 9.45am, Wellington 10.50, Auckland's east coast 11.12, West Coast 11.39, Lyttleton 11.55, Dunedin 12.31.

Poor old Dunedin. Always the last to know.

hopefully safer in the harbour than on the coast?

er, nope. Not unless we dam the harbour entrance PDQ. Probably worse off.

And, of course, links are welcome.