https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brvhCnYvxQQ

Two wheels better?

http://motoczysz.com/

http://www.brammo.com/home/

http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/eu/motorcycles

Personally, I believe a rapid financial crash combined with an initially slow, but then increasingly rapid fall in energy supply is the most likely scenario. Financial crisis can cause many of the effects Holmgren discusses in his scenario work in…

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/blogs/rob-hopkins/2014-01/holmgren-s-crash-demand-be-careful-what-you-wish

They probably didn't have mains power then, so charging the battery would have been done with a generator. Just transfers the fuel burning somewhere else, plus the added inefficiency of pushing it into a battery, and carrying the battery around on the tractor. I…

Too expensive to run , apparently.

Meanwhile back on Orwell's Automotive farm,
the thinking is "four wheels good..."

:- )

Crappy day here, flooding again in Flockton Lagoon and Heathcote
– Hope Hebe and family (and others)…

There are many debates in the 21st century about the viability of electric vehicles, but in the early part of the twentieth century they were a common sight on Christchurch streets.…

The Guardian reports on similar findings…

China’s air pollution could be intensifying storms over the Pacific Ocean and altering weather patterns in North America, according to scientists in…

Or in share schemes like http://www.cityhop.co.nz/

So yeah, the planet will cope and most folks are pretty certain there will be life on the planet (unless we go to full Venus-like hothouse) but there is not certainty that the life that…

Yup. And the price is incomprehensible. I presume it's predicated purely around the current novelty of the vehicle, rather than any justifiable link to its development cost. But that makes it…

Current automotive technology based on the internal combustion engine has severely lagged that of semiconductors and electricity generation. As it stands, the likes of the Tesla Model S,…

The latest plug-in hybrid SUV claims 1.9L/100Km= 124miles/U.S. gallon = 149 miles/ Imp. gallon.

Good charts of what's happened here. Seems that the weight has stopped increasing since about 2005, after quite a long downturn after the 70s oil shocks. But average efficiency has made quite a gain since the weight stopped…

There were huge fuel efficiency gains in cars for awhile; though they seem to have stalled lately. I recall when 10-12L per 100km was common for a mid-sized car whereas now the same car would…

< q > words < /q >

Heh. I make all my plans at least that long. Otherwise, one might be taken by surprise!

Sure. What's happened with the serious power usages in your life, though? Transportation and heating, and hot water, presumably? Any comparable inroads?

In 2004 I had two massive CRTs on my desk. 3D printers barely existed then, now people are making their own for fun, in five years there will be 3D print shops in shopping malls (a guess…

I think we’re talking at cross purposes. I meant what I was saying over short time period, like 5-10 years. But if you’re talking about this kind of change over the next…

It seems that the immediate goal should be to increase the efficiency of energy usage overall, but in particular the efficiency of fossil fuel usage.

use…

Not that I care much about SUV drivers but why can't their bigass'd vehicle be powered by something else. And why can't we send solar powered electric pumps to Cambodia. No loss…

Or a dent to their ego. To them it's like asking them to cut their balls off.

OK, but you're talking about transforming the entire way the fuel is used first. That's not something that comes for…

There are a couple of things here. First we don't need to stop burning all fossil fuels to get carbon emissions to a point where we don't damage the climate (too much). So you don't need to go from 70-80% to 0%,…

http://www.ecoliteracy.org/essays/fossil-food-consuming-our-future

You will need be specific about what you mean because that is extremely counterintuitive. Are you not talking about taking out fossil fuel consumption, which accounts…

We don’t have an economic organization that can withstand a drop in consumption.

I would point out that there is sweet F all evidence for the postulated economic loss. It is definitely true that some industries and businesses will suffer economic losses if we reduce fossil…

Nope that's not what I said.

You are suggesting I want to get rid of those in power who won't, in this case,…

Perhaps. Making things that are actively dangerous, rather than just costly, is something that society should…

The solution must also sidestep the need to have commonality of belief systems , but must have commonality of goals if it is the case that the goals can only be…

It's not just people in power who are not willing to pay. There's…

Fascism! Technomancy, call it what you will, the belief that if we can just get those messy people out of the way the technology will work…

Replace bridge with, say, nuclear weapon and I think your…

;- )

I say this because I don't…

From personal experience in other debates (GMOs) there is not much point in spending your effort on the people who are ideologically opposed (equivalent to the deniers).

In order to change their minds you'd have to break their whole ideological framework…

The solution is to ask a better question. The questions I gave were intended to be a work in progress. So feel free to pose a better question, or series of questions, that gets to…

The alarmists do have a good point, we have the ability to create an atomic fart in a room we can't leave, should 'we' lose control of transuranic elements (92+)...

The planet has…

That isn't quite right. The amount of temperature change has been seen before for the planet but not the rate at which that change is occurring. Such changes in the past appears to have…

agreed. the climate changes we're on the cusp of aren't abnormal for Earth. they're unprecedented for homosapiens.

the question isn't "will earth cope?"*, the question is, "will we?"

*although the…

The problem with this question is how do you define ordinary and what time frame. For example I believe the climate is changing and that humans…

I've come to the conclusion that there is absolutely nothing to be gained from debating a climate change contrarian/denier. If the evidence of 9135 of 9136 publishing scientists will not convince them, nothing will. The reasons for contrarianism/denial…

[[http://www.spaceweather.com/images2014/09apr14/doublech.jpg?PHPSESSID=f86m17rtktrlm6qn71oaq85mh2|CORONAL HOLES: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a pair of coronal holes straddling the sun's equator. They are the deep-blue wedges in this extreme ultraviolet image of the sun taken mid-day on April 9th.…

Thank God for that. I might join in now. I have now interest in head games: PAS being mind-fuck-free is what makes it wonderful.

Thanks for your understanding.

I would prefer it if you left the conversation. You're just baiting people and making the discussion about yourself. Again.

Their leaders talked...and talked.....and talked.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW-RmVY2OkA

+1

I suggested using a section of a sports stadium crowd photo to show relevant numbers for the bowel screening programme pilot. Real people, just lots.

amazing, Keith

People should read it.

I haven't seen them yet. It's something earlier in the thread right?
So , in giving an honest answer to your question , I wasn't aware that…

So if I asked you to put a probability on a yes answer to question 1, you'd say 50:50, 50%, 0.5?

That doesn't make you a level 1 denier. Perhaps…

I don't believe that the climate is currently changing in a way that is out of the ordinary for the planet? But I can't know that.…

You were lucky I saw it, because just saying “not precise enough” wouldn’t have enabled my post*. The point you made about the historical range…

But not to everyone. I've worked with The Maruia Society, I've worked with sincere Catholics (I'm a vegetarian and oppose pedophilia), I can work with most…

So I deleted my whole answer (a couple of minutes after I had posted it) , and suggested that clarification was needed. Ben obviously agreed.

Perfect George. Just…

There you go, a very simple question and Mr Green refuses to answer it.

I have no time for deniers. None at all. I'll be back when he's away.

I'm not asking about whether the climate itself is ordinary, but whether the rate at which is changing is. If C is…

That might not be precise enough.

I'm suggesting to unappropriate, rather than to reappropriate. The words themselves, if laid out with sufficient precision, should not be battlegrounds.

The…

I apprehend that we cross-posted on that point. Slow typing ; even slower construction.

And that is true, but doesn't remove all usefulness from seeking to increase clarity. Indeed, it's giving in to that, and playing the same game. I don't see the need for Bart vs FG, in a rhetorical debate…

Well, let's try not to do that here. That is what I understood Russell to be asking for, a framework in which discussion could progress. I wouldn't have bothered with such a lengthy analysis otherwise, being busy and all. I don't…

Click the link I posted. There are quotes there from people denying that the climate is changing. Admittedly it's an alarmist site, but…

Well done. I was just looking back at the initial exchange in Nov. 2012. to see how it went off the rails immediately. It's quite informative.

What surprised me most though,…

He said it can be a threat AND an opportunity. That's not inconsistent with thinking things will not be getting…

Sorry, I don’t actually claim that I am a denier ; it is just that here at Hard News I was immediately labelled as one by Bart The Chief Inquisitor .

Do we share this, my second statement of “denialism” in the post to which you referred?

“I am…

This is very true. I've had great discussions with a wide range of people over the years on controversial topics, and often the initial formulation of the controversy appears to be responsible for…

But you don't actually need to change the extremes. The people in the middle are the ones that count – even if they aren't the loudest. But you do need to take the time to…

I heard a great quote the other…

I quoted that rather than claiming it, but I'm happy to stand by it. I disagree with you, for example two of the top 10 myths here feature quotes from people I'd label skeptics who explicitly deny that…

So we get occasional seminars by people studying this sort of question for different issues and I loosely follow the literature on it as well, again because of similar issues.

There are several things going…

Because that is not in dispute by those that you label sceptics.
I believe that climate change can be a threat as well as an opportunity, but I'm a denier, apparently.

Yes, I have. Tom, that was unwarranted and unhelpful and if you can't show respect to others I'll remove you from the conversation.

If you focus on the experimental nature of the reactors that you're proposing and think about the timeframe I beleive my objections still apply. The optimistic views that I've seen suggest we might have a fourth gen reactor working by 2030, and an…

“we” means “we, the people of earth”. If we don’t adopt nuclear, how do we keep the lights on without thermal power? Wind might work for a tiny population living on an…

I suspect that the biggest impact of carbon-constrained travel on NZ (and anywhere where fast trains don't go/aren't built) will be on speed. Fast air travel will be expensive, slow air/sea…

If…

But to work in that application, does air travel have to be cheap and frequent? Is it necessary for the cultural benefits that a lot of people travel to Bali to get…

No…

Yes, this! If NZ devoted a significant proportion of GDP to training a generation of nuclear scientists and engineers, then once they graduated embarked on a crash program of reactor design, within a…

and more intelligent processing to focus on what's meaningful like humans do

The train from Paris to London was much preferable to (and faster than) flying from CDG to Heathrow (and then training from Heathrow to central London) – the…

The freeways certainly didn't in San Francisco in 1989 and Kobe in 1995.

It is weird to me that there is so much focus on the (non-gasoline) transport net in this thread. Much as I would also love to take the overnight sleeper electric…

No, just trying to replicate bouncing up and down in gleeful agreement.

Smell and touch are the obvious two.

We are impressively visual beings but not everything can be reproduced on a screen. Also even just focusing on the visual you need high speed cameras to capture images of…

Hugging my children over the internet just wasn't the same.

Well, no, actually, I'm not romanticising it. And besides, we have much better technology and slightly less obnoxious ideas about class than back then. I would quite…

Spectacularly, I would imagine, but not in a way the passengers and crew would appreciate. But that's what we have engineers for, right?

Agreed, though, all electric would be a good start.

and how many of those things are not a matter of sufficient resolution?

What…

Unlikely. Actual real world personal contact communicates things that we can't reproduce over the internet (yet). I'm only too happy to use the internet but I also recognise the very real value of a face to face…

Not just our government – but in any case you are wrong about the cow shit. Depending on the area and river under consideration , the problem is either nitrate, or phosphorus (either…

No, it seems I just forgot to put the url in. Damn. Anyway, Hebe linked to the same thing I wanted to.

Yeah, well… I see this comment as classic Green Presbyterianism. Lecturing people and trying to force them to do something they don’t want to do is always a good way to win an election… or not. So good luck getting anyone to…

I see someone else at The Telegraph / Herald
has taken Charles Moore to task...
But Charles has utterly misunderstood the issue, and told an entire scientific discipline that he knows…

Nice one.

Maybe they're just hosed off about stocking their future?
;- )

reliable, affordable genuine hi-resolution video will change that. We don't have it yet.

Just electric rail would be a good start.
How does a high speed train in full flight cope with a significant earthquake?

Indebtedness/banker pressure/virtual insolvency.
The least indebted farmers are able to make the transition out to a lower stocking rate/less environmental impact/higher profitability situation.

Most are trapped in an obsolete paradigm, into which they were encouraged to enter by a…

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/07/guest-blog-finn-jackson-wont-get-fooled-again/

As for long-distance travel, I've always been a bit envious of my early 20th century predecessors of the International Settlement era and their long home leaves and travel by ship. Somehow air travel just does not feel…

Even the discussion here quickly focused on negatives, denying ourselves things, instead of figuring…

That's a very interesting point indeed, David.

Of all the ways we might deal with climate…

Fewer cows seems to be an unspeakable option for some reason.

That is a good example of what I meant by step change. My bigger problem is that while all this is lovely to talk about, and makes for a great theoretical discussion, as…

God knows I don’t have time to write this – but I guess it’s my field…

Aircraft engines are indeed very efficient for Brayton Cycle (gas turbine)…

How to convert a sceptic (why would you ?) ;-

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/how-to-convert-me-to-your-new-religion-of-global-warming-in-14-easy-steps/#more-34624

All the technical problems of CCS + all the (claimed) problems of biofuels!

You're right that in theory it's a good idea — but the details are awfully tricky...

what a pillock,
'Warmists' indeed!

Indeed. But what do I weigh it up against?

At present we pay for flying like we pay for 7/8ths of our lifestyle – we steal it from the future. Only in extreme cases would I steal…

So if we keep not doing anything, that keeps us safe. A good sign that things aren't really all that much of a problem…

if the option is GM plants vs insane geoengineering schemes, i'm pretty sure which one we'll get.

highlander 2.

Replanting forests?

There may be a clever way of doing it, but no-one’s discovered it yet.

Bart, if you could use your GE toolkit to rustle up a something like a very fast-growing coral (the kind that do the zooxanthellae symbiosis trick) that would thrive in a high CO2 environment then it…

Now you're talking.
Not much opposition to that , one would think.

Tell me, is carbon sequestration any more real that it was five or 10 years ago? Because people sure do talk about it a lot.

Bioplastics are already widely available — I use PLA probably every week in my engineering work.

I haven't looked in-depth at the claimed agricultural problems with bioplastics. But it's worth noting that small (i.e. house) scale machines…

http://www.dairynz.co.nz/news/pageid/2145881036

“Cows fed on mixed pasture excreted half the amount of nitrogen (N) in their urine compared to cows on standard pasture”, says Sharon

“Reducing N losses has implications for greenhouse gas emissions and nitrate leaching.”

Say no more.

Mea Culpa: I just bought a copy for $2 in a Geelong opshop…

Yep, and Karl Rove made it particularly…

we can't grow enough plant matter to feed ourselves *and* the demand for bioplastics, biofuel, etc?

if only we could transport all those exports on carbon-neutral trucks and sailing ships, amrite?

We have the technology – all it needs is for oil to get a bit more expensive to make the bioplastic investment attractive:
http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Polyethylene_from_Ethanol – and also their wiki category on Bioplastics.

In the present…

What constitutes essential air travel? Perhaps asylum seekers? Bomber pilots too, if we're going to have them. Maybe medevac flights.

I still travel for work, on the argument that I'm spending their karma, and budget one domestic flight every three years for personal travel.…

I am well disposed to claiming anybody's deductions and re-gift them to charity. Does anybody know if there are legal hurdles? (e.g. Do the donations have to have…

Have you heard of Psychology for a Better World, by Niki Harré from the University of Auckland? My wife recently recommended it to me as a book that is reshaping how she presents issues. (Free pdf, even.)

For my 2c, PAS…