Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: The Fine Line

Richard Wain

Wed, 28 May 2014 21:33:27 +1200

taking in refugees is to create work in the rest of this big empty country

Agree 100%. NZ is not a small country. It is this big, empty country.

Kumara Republic

Wed, 28 May 2014 18:11:20 +1200

Ashish Naicker sounds very much like an Indian name to me. Nothing seems to be black and white.

Stuff Nation: Cunliffe correctly identifies problem to housing crisis

Greg Dawson

Wed, 28 May 2014 16:52:57 +1200

While simultaneously adding another lever against wage depreciation. Sneaky, but good.

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 28 May 2014 16:42:10 +1200

Maybe there should be a minimum salary for work visa applicants (such visas are normally to do a particular job for one employer). That would ensure that workers are genuinely skilled (in order to attract that salary) and are not being imported just to save money on employing an NZ…

Moz

Wed, 28 May 2014 16:37:58 +1200

there may be a trickle of "political refugees" who simply can't stomach the current govt.

That Nice Mr Key{tm} is doing his very best to make sure they don't see NZ as an attractive refuge.

Australia's job market and economy is going to have to free-fall a lot further before…

TracyMac

Wed, 28 May 2014 15:56:26 +1200

On a slight tangent, Australia's job market and economy is going to have to free-fall a lot further before you'd expect to see many Aussies chancing their arm in NZ on a substantially economic basis. The economy and especially wages here are still way ahead of NZ's. We'll see what…

Sacha

Wed, 28 May 2014 14:36:33 +1200

.. Labour immigration spokesman Trevor Mallard ..

bless

Russell Brown

Wed, 28 May 2014 13:39:16 +1200

So, they're looking at work visas and the family reunification cap, because they're the only categories big enough for the leverage they want. This is where is might get messy for them.

Steve Barnes

Wed, 28 May 2014 09:54:08 +1200

At some point in the not too distant future we are going to have to look at finding a place for those displaced by climate change when the islands become inundated.
Of course that will just crank up the AGW deniers to fever pitch... "we shouldn't have to take them,…

WH

Wed, 28 May 2014 08:16:55 +1200

I think it's unfortunate that this has emerged from Labour's really very sensible and long overdue monetary policy proposal. Many of the problems and solutions identified in it have been widely discussed since the 1990s. It's worth quickly reading the thing if you haven't done so already.

I tend to…

Russell Brown

Wed, 28 May 2014 07:13:33 +1200

But I really struggle to see how capping migrant numbers would work, or adjusting the points system to maintain an effective cap. For starters, it could only apply to categories such as student, work, or business migrants. And even then, how could you reasonably tell applicants “sorry, you meet all…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 28 May 2014 00:55:43 +1200

Playing into JK's hands.
What next? A run on the dollar?

Then again, a property crash would be one of the few things that the 1%-ers wouldn't be able to run away from, so chances are it'd be too big to fail for Key & Co.

Steve Barnes

Wed, 28 May 2014 00:06:53 +1200

My inner Machiavellian tells me that the best way to trigger one is to actively encourage sub-prime lenders to set up shop in NZ.
Playing into JK's hands.
What next? A run on the dollar?

Kumara Republic

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:41:48 +1200

We are choosing to invest in sprawling suburban McMansions and highly-leveraged dairy farms all ultimately owned by foreign banks, not in what genuinely counts for our children's futures. Tolerating political incompetence is part of that. Let's not encourage further stupidity.

I suspect there won't be much traction until things get…

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:36:26 +1200

the Epsom set

more coastal – think Tamaki or East Coast Bays, in electorate terms.

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:34:53 +1200

I don't think the current surge in net migration was was projected

See that earlier spike in the graph too. Averages out OK over longer periods like 10 or 20 years.

in the short term

And we keep electing politicians who see no further ahead than 3 years..

Kumara Republic

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:32:27 +1200

And, no, I'm not saying "hey, it's not as bad as the National Party policy of 2005". I'm saying, repeatedly, that it's very cynical for someone like DPF to be howling about racism and xenophobia now when he calmly waved through that horrible Brash speech then.

It only reinforces my…

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:30:11 +1200

immigration buttressed Labour’s economic story in government quite nicely too.

shamefully lazy really, much like Blinglish aiming to cruise on zero real increases

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 23:27:53 +1200

And we're already in deficit, thanks to those who profit from squeezes.

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 22:09:08 +1200

…what about a few tariffs on imports?

Working out monetary policies that aren't entirely premised on hot-money-attracting high interest rates would do the same thing more productively.

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 22:05:30 +1200

Exactly. We’re using migration as a convenient excuse to avoid addressing our ongoing national failure to make our economy sustainably better at earning more from the world through high-value, high-skilled work and smart, creative enterprises.

And let’s be honest: immigration buttressed Labour’s economic story in government quite nicely too. It…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 22:02:08 +1200

Important nonetheless to remind ourselves that about two thirds of the city’s population growth over the next couple of decades comes from Aucklanders having babies and internal migration. Former head government statistician Len Cook made that point eloquently at an Auckland Council-hosted event last year.

Quite, and as noted in…

Steve Barnes

Tue, 27 May 2014 22:00:48 +1200

I liked this bit...
Ch(HP)LMA(t,t−5)=α+βCh(Pop)LMA(t,t−5)+δΔXLMA(t,t−5)+ΔeLMA,t
(2)

where Ch(z)LMA,t=zLMA,t−zLMA,t−5zLMA,t−5

Sums it up nicely for me, especially the delta for the labour market area over time with regard to general population change over the same timeframe.
I suppose that illustrates the lack of overall correlation between non Kiwi immigration and housing affordability…

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:53:07 +1200

the way to take pressure off Auckland while maintaining migration and taking in refugees is to create work in the rest of this big empty country

People all over the world are favouring larger cities. They offer advantages of scale and connectedness for the sort of work and workers we…

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:48:53 +1200

the real issues needing to be fixed are infrastructure, education and training, and management of the economy, and no amount of tinkering with immigration policy is going to fix those issues.

Exactly. We're using migration as a convenient excuse to avoid addressing our ongoing national failure to make our economy…

william blake

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:47:12 +1200

Obviously the way to take pressure off Auckland while maintaining migration and taking in refugees is to create work in the rest of this big empty country. Unfortunately government make work schemes have all been sold and the market isn't interested in manufacturing in Balclutha...

...what about a few tariffs…

william blake

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:38:58 +1200

http://www.dol.govt.nz/publication-view.asp?ID=252

I would be interested if anyone took issue with these numbers, or conclusions.

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:38:35 +1200

I can only presume that they're under orders to show neither fear or favour

Haven't heard him lose it like that with any government Ministers. Yet.

Sacha

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:36:55 +1200

we're entering a period of historically high, and possibly unprecedented, migration inflow that (bearing in mind internal migration) has significant implications for Auckland.

Important nonetheless to remind ourselves that about two thirds of the city's population growth over the next couple of decades comes from Aucklanders having babies and internal…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:12:51 +1200

while in NZ at the moment its coming from the left (and which ever part of the spectrum Winston currently occupies).

Peters is certainly pretty much on his usual track.

And the line about immigrants making it difficult for Aucklanders is a joke. Auckland’s own policies on new housing has…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 21:06:19 +1200

So, yeah, it might help to be mindful that there are plenty of people for whom a “a one-line suggestion buried in the monetary policy announcement” sounds a note a lot of us hereabouts just don’t hear, and IMO it’s just a wee bit privileged to say “well, it’s not…

Martin Connelly

Tue, 27 May 2014 20:50:06 +1200

Immigration linked xenophobia is neither a right wing nor a left wing phenomena. In Europe at the moment, its coming from the right (as it has here in the past), while in NZ at the moment its coming from the left (and which ever part of the spectrum Winston currently…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 20:44:27 +1200

I’ve stopped actually listening to Moaning Report, now. I’m only keyed to the changing bulletins as a timekeeper. Both of them are crap interviewers.

Espiner's a much better interviewer than he was this morning. He was howling at Cunliffe that he was a hypocrite for helping a friend living overseas…

Chris Waugh

Tue, 27 May 2014 20:12:23 +1200

My apologies for jacking this thread so badly. Re: refugees, I think they should be kept separate from immigration policy and I think NZ should be doing much, much more to assist. And yes, openly not copying Australian policy.

As for immigration policy generally, I find it hard to organise…

Chris Waugh

Tue, 27 May 2014 19:51:12 +1200

NZs number is around 750, which indicates they are taking 5 times the number NZ is , in proportion to population.

Which I think is something we should be looking to fix. My point with boat people vs. plane arrivals is that the prospect of masses of boats loaded with…

nzlemming

Tue, 27 May 2014 19:18:02 +1200

For that reason, I actually don’t think it makes sense for Cunliffe to conjure up a magic number now, no matter how much Guyon Espiner screams at him.

I've stopped actually listening to Moaning Report, now. I'm only keyed to the changing bulletins as a timekeeper. Both of them are…

Tinakori

Tue, 27 May 2014 18:46:16 +1200

One of the major deterrents to people smuggling by boat to NZ is a purely commercial one. People smuggling is a business. The boat has to be good for only one journey because it is a one way trip. The trade off between a boat that can meet the nautical…

Craig Ranapia

Tue, 27 May 2014 18:40:55 +1200

jeez Craig you don’t half expect much do you.

I expect the best because, I deserve it. We all do. So do the people in the city where I live for whom Dawn Raid isn’t a cool record label but a living memory, and who’ve been on the receiving end…

Steve Curtis

Tue, 27 May 2014 18:34:16 +1200

Besides, don’t Australia’s own stats show that most “queue-jumping” refugees arrive by plane rather than boat?

Chris , doesnt matter if you arrive by plane and cannot be returned immediately, you are still locked up. There is a detention camp at Villawood in the suburbs of Sydney, amoung others.

The…

Steve Barnes

Tue, 27 May 2014 17:53:55 +1200

I can't help but thinking a little more investment in educating and training our own youth might help cut down the need to import skilled labour, though.Yes but where will National find the cash they get from dodgy immigrants if they go down the education path. It could be years…

Chris Waugh

Tue, 27 May 2014 17:10:53 +1200

What if there is another?

I very much doubt there will be one, let alone another. Here's why: The standard MO seems to be to set out from Indonesia aiming for mainland Australia. So if we start there, but aim for NZ, then the boat can either sail along the…

Rob Stowell

Tue, 27 May 2014 17:06:05 +1200

the rather simplistic argument for needing the population to continue to grow.
This. It's a dumb-simple fact that the growth addicted global economy has all-too-often 'grown' just as a consequence of more people. It's not nuts (or racist, thanks) to suggest we look at policy as that promotes growing something…

Bart Janssen

Tue, 27 May 2014 16:58:51 +1200

careful public policy discussion conducted by adults who think very carefully before they speak

jeez Craig you don't half expect much do you.

But yeah. I'd also like to see some sensible discussion of the rather simplistic argument for needing the population to continue to grow. It's all very well…

Tinakori

Tue, 27 May 2014 16:40:58 +1200

OK, fine for the first boat. What if there is another?

Trevor Nicholls

Tue, 27 May 2014 16:20:47 +1200

I just think it’s deeply cynical of DPF and others to be screaming about racism and xenophobia at any mention of immigrant policy when they endorsed that policy and that speech.
Politics is the art of "creating reality". Just, y'know, not that real sort of reality.

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 15:53:19 +1200

I have a better DPF memory-hole accident.

Brash’s speech launching the 2005 immigration policy:

There is resentment that too many immigrants, and especially those who arrive as refugees, go straight onto a benefit, and live for years at the expense of the hard-working New Zealand taxpayer.

There is resentment that,…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 27 May 2014 15:43:00 +1200

To add, my preferred policy is to keep the existing migrant inflows in to NZ, but they’ll need to obtain Permanent Residency or Citizenship if they want to buy a house or otherwise pay for the privilege (making it a form of stamp duty), or lodge a resource consent to…

Alex Coleman

Tue, 27 May 2014 15:23:09 +1200

On the 'DPF singing a different tune these days' aspect, this was his response to people who said that Brash was blowing a dogwhistle about immigration:

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2006/02/orewa_iii.html

Now read the above again. This is what Judith Tizard claims is “attacking migrants”. How on hell can we have a serious debate…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 27 May 2014 14:52:54 +1200

I'm waiting for those in power who are crying racism to start playing the Children Overboard card. While Cunliffe really, really needs to sharpen his immigration policy – the least he could do is paint it as a capital controls issue instead of a race issue – cries of xenophobia…

Chris Waugh

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:58:11 +1200

I’d also like to see the refugee intake kept up and out of this discussion (yes, I’m the first to mention it). Especially it could and should be used as a stick to beat Australia with rather than becoming yet another symptom of our sycophancy.

Absolutely. And I'm of the…

bob daktari

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:46:42 +1200

I'd also like to see the refugee intake kept up and out of this discussion (yes, I'm the first to mention it)

Yep a very different topic, but as the door is ajar – its a subject in which NZ is currently not pulling our weight on, at the least…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:40:30 +1200

Completely agreed on that.

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:37:01 +1200

It’s an idea at this stage, the mechanics of it don’t seem to have been decided or worked out. Given their innovative monetary policy I don’t see why they can’t be- though it would be good for immigrants to get clear signals.

Like I said, it began as a one-line…

Moz

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:20:19 +1200

but we'll need to have jobs waiting for them of course.

And awful lot of immigrants start their own small businesses. The reasons are not all positive, but the fact is we don't need to "create jobs for them", they do that themselves. The cliche take-away shop and dairy are…

martinb

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:17:01 +1200

Or if those who wish to oppose them didn’t willfully mishear and misinterpret.

See Cunliffe on the Nation or Parker on Q and A as good clear explanations of their policy at this point.

Suppose I should point out that I haven't heard the NatRad thing, but there has been…

Craig Ranapia

Tue, 27 May 2014 13:10:55 +1200

It wasn’t a gaffe, it was a confusing answer.

I don't think a go-round on the semantics of "gaffe" is particularly helpful, but in my book it would be really helpful to quality debate if the two chaps who'd really like to be leading the next government could clearly and…

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 12:48:48 +1200

Well, fair point as far as it goes. How about we don’t set a low bar for anyone in 2014, because we still need a fact-based, careful public policy discussion conducted by adults who think very carefully before they speak on what can so easily turn into racist catnip.

I…

Gregor Ronald

Tue, 27 May 2014 12:39:57 +1200

I heard somewhere recently that immigrants tend to settle and remain in an area after 4 years; they've settled in to work, made friends, kids are in school, other relatives have settled near by. So why not allow immigrants to settle in the regions and bond them to stay there…

Craig Ranapia

Tue, 27 May 2014 12:23:24 +1200

Whatever the measure of Labour’s thinking on immigration is, it’s not even in the same ballpark as this kind of naked hostility and dog-whistle racism. Feel free to remind your neighbourhood right-wing blogger.

Well, fair point as far as it goes. How about we don't set a low bar for…

bob daktari

Tue, 27 May 2014 12:11:55 +1200

I love the diversity that immigration has brought to NZ yet am concerned about the ongoing immigration policies and political football it is

No worries about us allowing more people in, just wonder what the rational is – as in what is the long term goal of immigration from our…

Tim Michie

Tue, 27 May 2014 11:56:44 +1200

It should be possible to discuss migration trends without appealing to the worst nature of parts of the electorate and without reflexively being accused of xenophobia the moment the topic is aired. And improving the experience for migrants and especially refugees can be part of this conversation. Not to mention…

Ben McNicoll

Tue, 27 May 2014 11:45:00 +1200

It's also likely that Austraia's current economic downturn

I'm reliably informed the phonetic spelling is "'straya"

Russell Brown

Tue, 27 May 2014 11:33:49 +1200

I think the Brash statement I linked to above warrants an excerpt here:

Brash announces immigration policy

National Party Leader Don Brash says immigrants will be put on probation for four years under a National Government and will have to meet good-conduct requirements to gain permanent residency.

Announcing National’s immigration…

Public Address

Tue, 27 May 2014 11:33:48 +1200

Discussion from blog post.