Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow

linger

Wed, 04 Oct 2017 01:11:33 +1300

And the coat-tails provision should definitely be scrapped if the threshold were to be halved.Nah, that would still maintain the possibility of inequality in value of votes between electorates and/or between electoral and party votes in some electorates. As it stands the coat-tail provision acts to increase the possible proportionality…

linger

Wed, 04 Oct 2017 00:49:42 +1300

True that: and makes a mockery of the Commission's highly-prioritised concern that parties would need >5 MPs in order to function effectively in Parliament. (That concern was arguably misplaced by many miles: (i) it's not true if a larger party has agreed to provide logistic support; and (ii) it would…

Trevor Nicholls

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 23:53:49 +1300

The parties really have no case for objecting to a version of MMP which returns one MP for a party based on a no-threshold party vote, because right up until the 2017 election they have shown themselves perfectly happy to make accommodations that produce one electorate MP for a party…

stephen walker

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 22:10:36 +1300

Since 2005 I have advocated for the threshold to be halved to 2.5% (one-fortieth of the party vote instead of one-twentieth). With a five percent threshold that means a party has to win the nominal equivalent of six seats, whereas the nominal equivalent of three seats seems much more realistic,…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 20:54:12 +1300

Why don't we all cut the bullshit and just say the major block on any Teal Coalition is that the other grand coalition would be the grassroots of both parties uniting to burn the motherfucker down?

If NZ First somehow manages to survive Winston's retirement, it'll probably and unfortunately be…

Dennis Frank

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 17:17:19 +1300

Like the German green realos vs fundis?

Interesting question. The easy answer is yes, but political reality is always composed of nuances and complexities, so the simplest response is misleading. Political reality is created via praxis (rather than via political philosophy or values).

You can probably say that alignments and…

Sacha

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 15:31:54 +1300

their schism was created when those who were not leftists and those who were became unable to collaborate any further

Like the German green realos vs fundis?

linger

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 14:01:34 +1300

I like that: essentially the same outcome as, but simpler mechanism than, a 1% threshold.

Dennis Frank

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 13:32:31 +1300

Do we know where the earlier Values party supporters saw themselves?

Only partially: their schism was created when those who were not leftists and those who were became unable to collaborate any further. Only someone who participated could say if it was a 50:50 split. That's the members. As far…

Sacha

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 13:16:44 +1300

Michael Wright arguing that it is time to ditch the threshhold entirely

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97467871/analysis-its-time-to-ditch-the-mmp-threshold

Bruce Ward

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 13:09:22 +1300

Front page of the Press today has Michael Wright arguing that it is time to ditch the threshhold entirely. I like that idea but doubt it will get much traction amongst the elected ...

linger

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 13:03:39 +1300

Oh yes: the fact that what was tossed wasn't good enough doesn't make the tosser any less of a tosser.

izogi

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 12:51:49 +1300

Hi @linger. I agree that the 4% thing really isn't low enough. Certainly if there's not some parallel measure. eg. Giving people an alternative vote, in case their first choice doesn't get enough, would also help people vote for a low-polling party with less concern of their vote being wasted.…

BenWilson

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 12:41:17 +1300

Seeing that 7% as the bedrock real Green support base

It's credible. But I still don't buy that a significant proportion of those 7% are not inherently left wing. And the high water marks, the best results ever reached by the Party are almost certainly swingers on the left.

linger

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 12:11:04 +1300

leader of exaggerated personalityAm I wrong for immediately thinking of the "rodents of unusual size" from The Princess Bride ?

Bart Janssen

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 11:12:56 +1300

this could allow some strange minority views into Parliament; but giving everyone a chance of representation is really the point of a representatative democracy, isn’t it?

Absolutely!

The idea that we exclude some views from parliament because less than 5% hold those views is just wrong. 5% is 150000 out…

linger

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 10:59:20 +1300

tbh the Commission’s recommendation on thresholds (–> 4%) was too weak, and in combination with the recommendation to remove the so-called “coat-tailing” exception, would not have improved the proportionality of MMP at all — so it was a relief those got tossed, so we can try again.
As I’ve said…

izogi

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 10:01:26 +1300

Talking about the party of bottom lines, I was surprised to see Tracey Martin, on the final episode of Back Benches, arguing that 5% was a good value for the threshold. Apparently it's the fault of the small parties "for not perfecting the art of surviving".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpyxtLZ7nEE

If that's a…

Sacha

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 09:51:04 +1300

I read that as indicating enough of the public were rejecting the left & right

Do we know where the earlier Values party supporters saw themselves?

Sacha

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 09:48:32 +1300

The 5% threshold will be lowered when a party makes it a negotiating bottom line. Not holding my breath for that from either of the big two, though Collins is a particularly disgusting example.

izogi

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 09:02:00 +1300

There really is probably room for a second Green party in NZ, but the 5% rule means that such a party will never evolve.

This really annoys me. I like MMP far more than what came before it, but to me this recent election has been a clearer demonstration of…

Dennis Frank

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 08:58:36 +1300

I joined the Greens after the 1990 election because they got 7% of the total vote, so I read that as indicating enough of the public were rejecting the left & right to make a better future viable. Worth spending my time & energy on. So, because that was prior to the…

Craig Ranapia

Tue, 03 Oct 2017 00:14:32 +1300

Why don't we all cut the bullshit and just say the major block on any Teal Coalition is that the other grand coalition would be the grassroots of both parties uniting to burn the motherfucker down?

Credit to Jesse Mulligan for keeping a straight face. The audience couldn't.

Really, I…

Rob Stowell

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 23:02:49 +1300

maybe it's a leftist position, but it's pretty clear the laissez faire policies National holds at its core are damaging both the environmental and social fabric, in a very much connect manner.
of course it's a terrible position for poor national, to have only the one option, NZF. having another…

BenWilson

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 21:56:06 +1300

you seem to be discounting those who have (like me) been part of the Green movement their whole lives and vote Green in rejection of the left/right accordingly.

No, I'm aware of you, I just don't think your specific position represents anything like a majority in the support of the…

linger

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 21:32:17 +1300

For me there’s an almost total disjunct between conservatism (“we should keep doing what we’re doing now, because that’s working out really well so far for me and my mates personally”) and conservation (“we should preserve the environment against change that would otherwise threaten future choices and freedoms”). I don’t…

Sacha

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 20:58:42 +1300

those who have (like me) been part of the Green movement their whole lives and vote Green in rejection of the left/right accordingly. This portion of the electorate is larger than all the swing-voters combined

Do you have evidence for that?

Dennis Frank

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 19:53:04 +1300

I put it to you that the average Green position on the Left-Right direction is NOT in the middle, it is NOT more Right wing than Labour. I agree that it is more "Green" than Labour.

Yes, that's the warping effect of the leftist parliamentary alignment. The alignment warps the…

simon g

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 19:47:34 +1300

In one master stroke, Jim Bolger brilliantly pulls back the curtain on the whole Nat-Green fantasy, by using an analogy so jaw-droppingly absurd that nobody – not even the bored press gallery – can take this story and its promoters seriously any more.

On TV3's The Project Bolger said that…

Dennis Frank

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 19:30:18 +1300

I think we are talking at cross purposes, because I am referring to what people who actually vote Green think

Yes, that's true. Green voters are likely to be mostly influenced by the combination of Green policies and the leftist parliamentary alignment, but you seem to be discounting those who…

Trevor Nicholls

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 18:59:57 +1300

Patronising claptrap from somebody called Stacey who has apparently earned an opinion column in Stuff: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97367387/stacey-kirk-honour-above-the-environment-greens-hold-a-deck-of-aces-theyre-refusing-to-play
While the Greens remain stubbornly ignorant of what they could gain from National, a deal won't work.
I don't know why she couldn't write "While the Greens are aware of what they could gain…

BenWilson

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 17:50:40 +1300

the chain between evidence and causal interpretation is very indirect

It sure is. This kind of analysis is basically a recipe for spurious correlation.

Sampling people and asking them would be the more robust way to find out the answer. Of course it is also expensive.

Sacha

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 17:44:41 +1300

flub

Not yours – the site doesn't honour end quote tags straight after certain characters. Inserting an extra trailing space is the workaround.

BenWilson

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 17:41:28 +1300

To get the reality (acknowledge the twin tribes within) you’ll have to ditch that binary frame you’re using.

No, you just have to understand that when you measure a new dimension you don't magically kill the old ones. Just because there is altitude doesn't take away that you also have…

Bart Janssen

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 16:35:33 +1300

Several caveats

Believe me I'm very conscious of those caveats and you are absolutely right to point them out.

It's exactly the kind of problem you see all the time in genomics where more data points makes rare events almost certain and it's all too easy to make up stories…

linger

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 13:51:51 +1300

Several caveats are necessary when looking at the results of those correlational analyses. They’re interesting, but I’d regard them as indicative rather than conclusive.
(i) Based on correlation only, and data is electorate-population-level, not individual-level, so the chain between evidence and causal interpretation is very indirect. Strictly, the evidence behind…

Dennis Frank

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 12:39:48 +1300

I assure you, they are of the Left

I assure you they aren't. That's just your perception, not the reality. To get the reality (acknowledge the twin tribes within) you'll have to ditch that binary frame you're using. The triadic frame originated in the late sixties, so the only valid…

BenWilson

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 11:44:12 +1300

That’s why we became neither left nor right.

I can't speak for the party or it's members, or you, or your motivations or political analysis. But I can speak to the supporters, being one, and having seen analysis of their views, and I assure you, they are of the Left.…

Paul Campbell

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 11:38:31 +1300

I'm completely convinced that the Nats are totally scared of doing a deal with Winston, and equally scared that he'll make a deal with the red/greens, and that the current overture to the Greens is a cynical ploy to get some leverage over Winston.

However I do think this is…

simon g

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 11:08:32 +1300

Continuing the general theme of "unsolicited advice for the Greens from uninformed sources", here's the latest: the Rotorua Daily Post manages three factual errors in one short editorial. Helpfully available on the NZ Herald website, in the ignorance-sharing process known as Hosking (I hosk, you hosk, everybody hosk).

Bart Janssen

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 11:01:01 +1300

How else do you explain the 10% drop??

This authors analysis suggests some of it was in part a move to TOP;

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=4785

Annoying and frustrating. It looks like a whole bunch of salaried educated Green voters threw away their vote to TOP. If you were a cynical conspiracy theorist…

Dennis Frank

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:54:26 +1300

Keep talking up the blue greens.

I'm not. Have never felt the slightest inclination to do so. I'm commenting on how the Nats' desperation to conjure up an alternative to Winston is playing in our media, and the bearing that the play has on our collective destiny.

With regard to…

Trevor Nicholls

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 00:16:40 +1300

So keeping the Greens happy is the price of keeping National in power.
But getting National out of power is the price of giving the country a sustainable future.

Fairly easy calculation if you are genuinely supportive of green issues, I'd have thought.

Joe Wylie

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 23:56:01 +1300

Being BlueGreen.

Rob Stowell

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 23:43:12 +1300

You don’t believe that Jacinda already recaptured all the ex-Labour voters who had drifted into the Green camp?
absolutely not. im sure because I’m one of them.

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 23:42:29 +1300

Ah, I see: it isn’t based on correlations between individual voter characteristics and individual voting preference, but rather on correlations between electorate-wide population characteristics and electorate-wide voting preference. (And that means that for now the specials are not included, which may affect the conclusions.) Fair enough. I hope the analysis…

Katharine Moody

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 23:33:04 +1300

How can they have meaningful data on this at all?

Yep, I asked myself the same question.

Here's the authors explanatory page about the book;
http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=3346

And the link on that page to the data sets on each NZ electorate;
https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/electorate-profiles/

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:39:42 +1300

whatever they will call themselvesyou kind of suggest it yourself: Astroturf Party (for fake greenery, and fake concern).

simon g

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:35:28 +1300

Eventually that massive sector of the Green support who voted for them so we could get the National Party again will surely rear its head.

Yep. They've had plenty of encouragement to do so, but they do seem remarkably shy.

Regardless of the make-up of the next government, these Centrist…

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:31:23 +1300

The Greens have more policy than NZF, so more to push, perhaps?
But yes, if the question is phrased as "who wants to form a Government?" then any media pressure for action should be directed first at National. The Greens care about getting their policy actioned, but rather less about…

Trevor Nicholls

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:18:23 +1300

I just wonder at people who say that the Greens with their ~6% support should be pushing themselves while excoriating NZF with their ~8% support for making too much of themselves.

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:15:56 +1300

I do have to wonder who they are sampling when I read statements like the correlation between being aged 5-14 and voting Green increased sharply, from -0.42 in 2014 to -0.08 in 2017. How can they have meaningful data on this at all?

Katharine Moody

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 22:01:52 +1300

How else do you explain the 10% drop??

This authors analysis suggests some of it was in part a move to TOP;

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=4785

And that Labour’s vote increased predominantly from those who had previously voted National, Maori and NZ First;

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=4799

And then the direct analysis of the Green vote…

BenWilson

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 21:56:52 +1300

You don’t believe that Jacinda already recaptured all the ex-Labour voters who had drifted into the Green camp? How else do you explain the 10% drop??

You're the one telling the story. Keep talking up the blue greens. Eventually that massive sector of the Green support who voted for them…

Dennis Frank

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 21:43:56 +1300

Oh well I guess they don't need to red-green votes then, and can stick to the blue-green ones they already have.

You don't believe that Jacinda already recaptured all the ex-Labour voters who had drifted into the Green camp? How else do you explain the 10% drop??

Dennis Frank

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 21:37:39 +1300

TVNZ like the angle: featured in Q+A & then they had Bolger promoting it as lead story tonight on their news. Framed to appeal to the common sense of viewers.

The notion that the Greens suffer under a self-imposed handicap via retention of the leftist parliamentary alignment isn't new or rocket…

BenWilson

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 21:28:17 +1300

Given that the Green movement has been making way more progress globally via blue-green tech than red-green talk

Oh well I guess they don't need to red-green votes then, and can stick to the blue-green ones they already have.

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 19:26:59 +1300

"Rotten to the core" springs to mind; the surface colour may change rapidly, but it's more important to be aware of the contents.

Kumara Republic

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 19:04:45 +1300

The very phrase 'bluegreen' makes me immediately think of toxic cyanobacteria aka blue-green algae.

Or an unripe blueberry: green on the outside, blue on the inside.

Dennis Frank

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 18:22:38 +1300

Your Bluegreens link brings up " 404 Error. That page was not found.

Strange. I copied their website address into here, never had that technique fail before. Anyway if you select the "About Us" tab on the page you linked to, you'll get the one I was looking at with…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 17:41:47 +1300

Planktonic friends, not platonic...
bluegreen stalwart
The very phrase 'bluegreen' makes me immediately think of toxic cyanobacteria aka blue-green algae.

Joe Wylie

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 16:48:02 +1300

Meet the Feebles.

Your Bluegreens link brings up " 404 Error. That page was not found.
The page you were looking for was not found. That’s all we know." Perhaps that's rather more honest than this past-its-use-by-date slab of ecopornography.

While there are a number of happy faces to conjure…

Dennis Frank

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 16:22:05 +1300

If anyone can find me a genuine friend of the environment making the case for a blue-Green coalition I'd be interested to read it.

Me too. Kiwis who relish the opportunity to demonstrate intellect are always hard to find. A rationale could be found in the wake of the Values…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 15:42:01 +1300

The main idea seems to be attempting to shame the Greens into cooperating. But I haven't seen a single exception to the rule that says that the writers of these opinion pieces simply want a National government without Winston, and that they have no Green-cred at all.

Strange too how…

Katharine Moody

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 15:31:00 +1300

Youtube clip of Fox and Flavell singing’ Santa Baby’ in the house ….deleted as it didn’t appear to load proper…

Here you go;

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-38322133/new-zealand-parliament-closes-to-christmas-ukulele-song

Yes, cringeworthy.

Rob Stowell

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 15:29:35 +1300

yeah- I think a lot of national supporters a/ look at Winston and think – yeah, nah and b/ look at the greens and see integrity – people you could deal with. what they don't ever seem to grasp is what they might give up to get this desired outcome.…

linger

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 15:22:13 +1300

Yes. I’m now hearing a meme from several National supporters that “if the Greens don’t get into government this time they’re finished”. Which is idiocy: the Greens continued to increase their support during the past 9 years outside government, and their current low polling is rather more likely a temporary…

Katharine Moody

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 15:14:25 +1300

that the MP seems to represent folk at the…better heeled end of the spectrum. Like the Treaty settlements…there’s not a lot of trickle down to the plebs in the iwi.

Tama Iti made this point this morning on Marae and Hone's made the same point on a number of occasions.…

Trevor Nicholls

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 14:21:23 +1300

There's clearly a real push now underway in the commentariat to try to engineer a Nat-Greens coalition. The main idea seems to be attempting to shame the Greens into cooperating. But I haven't seen a single exception to the rule that says that the writers of these opinion pieces simply…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 09:30:46 +1300

...a whole ‘Blue electorate’ with emasculated representation.
As Kim Dotcom discovered when he phoned John Banks from the Mount Eden lockup, there are few things more useless than an actual ACT MP.

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 08:34:50 +1300

What he said in that press conference was that he’s waiting for the full vote count. What could be wrong with that?
David Seymour and National can attest to the ‘unforeseen outcomes’ that may arise from making deals before all the facts are known – all that finagling for zero…

Katharine Moody

Sat, 30 Sept 2017 18:32:38 +1300

Having just watched Winston’s media conference (or onslaught), I am now officially “relaxed” about the negotiations. If NZF can support Labour on confidence and supply only, I’m fine with that.

But if he wants to be a Minister, National can have him.

Have you read the headlines recently? No wonder…

Kumara Republic

Sat, 30 Sept 2017 18:13:42 +1300

Having just watched Winston's media conference (or onslaught), I am now officially "relaxed" about the negotiations. If NZF can support Labour on confidence and supply only, I'm fine with that.

But if he wants to be a Minister, National can have him.

Or something less controversial like Racing or Foreign…

Kaipara Possum

Sat, 30 Sept 2017 07:34:56 +1300

NZ has to stop normalise fascism. Winston and his merry lot of geriatric, rich white people are a danger to democracy. Their rise is a continuation of the shift that has meant Brexit and Trump and other white fascist symbols. Fascism needs to be nipped in the bud. NOW

simon g

Wed, 27 Sept 2017 15:44:34 +1300

Having just watched Winston's media conference (or onslaught), I am now officially "relaxed" about the negotiations. If NZF can support Labour on confidence and supply only, I'm fine with that.

But if he wants to be a Minister, National can have him.

Paul Campbell

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 10:24:47 +1300

well yeah – what happens when Winnie goes has to part of any negotiation – and that issue needs to be gently negotiated around the elephant-ego in the room

simon g

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 10:15:51 +1300

Sadly, I suspect their thinking will be "we're toast next time regardless, Winston will be gone, so let's cash in for 3 years".

The prospect of Minister Shane Jones being on "my team" is enough to make me squeamish about winning, or relaxed about losing, in the Big Negotiate.

Paul Campbell

Tue, 26 Sept 2017 10:00:04 +1300

I was thinking about what would happen if NZF decided not to join any coalition, I can imagine a National minority govt finding itself being ganged up on by the 3 others to pass the law that they want – they might get more done that way ....

Rosemary McDonald

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:46:46 +1300

and I also think this is worse

I hadn't seen that. Tai hoa? I'm guilty of doing the angry/ranty thing myself...but I've no aspirations to lead a much needed political party.

The other thing thing Fox said the other day that confirmed what I'd been hearing from some tangata whenua…

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:15:43 +1300

mad tactical voting skillz exemplified by Epsom.
So how do the obedient voting tools of Epsom feel now that Bill & Steve's Big Adventure has left them with a lame duck MP, with no seat at the big table, no power or clout to do anything useful for 'his ' electorate?…

simon g

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 13:14:31 +1300

That's a built-in problem with the Maori seats combined with our version of MMP. We don't do nuances, we don't do German-style multiple options for coalitions, everything is "Are you going with Labour or National?". Any challenger to Labour in the Maori electorates is going to be Not-Labour, ergo ...…

Russell Brown

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 12:45:54 +1300

I was wondering Russell if you still hold this opinion after Marama Fox’s rather despicable attack on her electorate the other night.

I do, and I think she's a loss – and I also think this is worse than either of the two examples you linked to. I understand that…

Rosemary McDonald

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 12:00:33 +1300

One could also frame it as sheer disbelief that many Māori electorate voters don’t after all have the same degree of rabid self-interest and mad tactical voting skillz

I think it went deeper than that. Yes, there was an initial enthusiasm for the MP and a buy into the ‘we’ll…

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 11:26:47 +1300

One could also frame it as sheer disbelief that many Māori electorate voters don’t after all have the same degree of rabid self-interest and mad tactical voting skillz exemplified by Epsom. “It fucking worked for fucking ACT!” It is a tad unfair.

Tom Semmens

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 11:16:02 +1300

Eh, some considerable frustration at this stage is understandable.

Call me hard nosed, but being treated to the sight of Te Ururoa Flavell blubbing like a big child on TV and then being invited by Patrick Gower to feel sorry for him just made want to slap him. If you…

linger

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 10:55:28 +1300

Eh, some considerable frustration at this stage is understandable. Once gone from Parliament, there's no easy way back for the Māori Party, and they know it.

Tom Semmens

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 10:27:48 +1300

I was wondering Russell if you still hold this opinion after Marama Fox’s rather despicable attack on her electorate the other night.

Smug, shrill and self serving comment from someone clearly with a chip on her shoulder. The perfect epithet for the smug, shrill and self-serving Maori Party founded by…

Rosemary McDonald

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 10:04:12 +1300

...Māori Party co-leader Marama Fox, who has again demonstrated what an extraordinary politician she is.

I was wondering Russell if you still hold this opinion after Marama Fox's rather despicable attack on her electorate the other night.

She has backed off a tad, but I find it unbelievable that…

Sacha

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 10:03:39 +1300

I don't have the time or energy to write something new today

If only that were true of our media, who will insist on spraying reckons for the next couple of weeks even though there is nothing new to base reports on.

Russell Brown

Mon, 25 Sept 2017 09:34:14 +1300

Righto – I don't have the time or energy to write something new today, so the thread is open again.

Russell Brown

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 22:32:23 +1200

Kia ora!

Gonna close the thread, to make the gesture towards a law I suspect won't be there next election.

But also because I reckon we should have new conversations after 6pm tomorrow :-)

Katharine Moody

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 22:04:55 +1200

Yes, that's what I've been thinking for awhile now.

Trevor Nicholls

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 20:54:43 +1200

Well I hope he's right, but if he is right then a big proportion of these votes will be specials (not just early votes) and we may not know he's right until many days hence.

Katharine Moody

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 19:56:29 +1200

What happened to all that “relentless positivity”?

Still got it here – and this is good news as well;

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/22/49399/there-may-have-been-a-youth-quake

Rosemary McDonald

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 15:27:55 +1200

congregate under the eves of the Henderson library to access the free wifi

Go the Aotearoa People's Network!!!!

Not only we indigenous Bus travelers 'freeload' at the beautiful Te Ahu Centre in Kaitaia, but the 'wee van' overseas tourists also partake. Absolutely awesome facility, and I am forever grateful...not only…

Allan Moyle

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 14:53:58 +1200

Labour and the Greens remain the only two parties with independent costings.
Heres an errant thought. The taxpayer pays for BEFU & PREFU, how about political parties only qualify for public broadcasting time/funding when they present a costed policy model, by a given date.

Jason Kemp

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 14:02:02 +1200

Overall election early votes just hit 985,530 so with todays totals to be tallied by 2pm tomorrow advance voting will be well above 1m. 178,785 votes cast is a new daily record.

dave stewart

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 13:12:28 +1200

What happened to all that "relentless positivity"?
The Nats haven't won yet, and I for one am anticipating with pleasure watching smug smiles being wiped from certain faces tomorrow night:

Freeview channel 50 – RNZ on the TV: the A team with no ads.

And there is still time to…

Sacha

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 12:50:28 +1200

(sorted)

linger

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 11:41:46 +1200

The system works on trust Indeed it does, and that’s a good thing, and I would not change it.
I do not recommend that anyone vote while technically ineligible. (If their vote were subsequently challenged for any reason, that would have serious consequences.) I am not even suggesting that people…

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 11:28:06 +1200

The system works on trust. And with MMP, the effect of any transgressions is limited. (FPP magnifies fraud by allowing bogus votes in key electorates to transform a result).

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 11:24:46 +1200

I think that if CGT had been packaged with say a $10k personal allowance (which would equal about $50 a week for most taxpayers) as tax fairness issue between landlords and workers, then it would have had no problems. It's the concept that it's just an extra tax that people…

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 11:22:24 +1200

“I’d guarantee I earn four times your salary, and I voted Labour. National is for low paid idiots”

Awesome. Did you burn a fiver for good measure, like Chelsea supporters used to do?

Kumara Republic

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 11:18:13 +1200

People always vote on emotion. People don’t say “I will vote for Labour because after a cost benefit analysis I think they’ll do best to improve social mobility” They say “I am OUTRAGED at child poverty!”
Having been held back in life by ASD discrimination, I count myself among the…

Tom Semmens

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 09:45:02 +1200

Case study from just this Wednesday evening on the Western Line:

I overheard some…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 09:40:41 +1200

We're better than that.

Are we? Really?

Lets be honest.
We let the Roast busters get away with rape.
We let the dairy farmers in Canterbury steal water and destroy rivers.
We let a housing bubble continue.
We let our poorest live in cold damp crowded homes.
We let children…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 09:29:09 +1200

I think it's been their problem all along: all about policy, hardly ever about people.

There's a part of me that responds to the desire to focus on ideas rather than personality.

BUT

First don't be a dick

And second, you are going to be met with surprises in government,…

Joe Wylie

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 09:21:09 +1200

I was talking to a young DINKY couple last night, always voted Green. Last Xmas at the height of the market they brought a modest two bedroom place at the height of the market.

They both voted already, for National. As he said, "we want to protect our investment".

Back…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 09:20:07 +1200

rejoyce!
There's a slogan National could have used...
;- )

william blake

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 07:56:13 +1200

I felt profoundly sad for my country

when the tax cut is negated by a rise in gst and the property market deflates we can rejoyce?

Progressive taxation not regressive and a regulated housing market please to truly protect our investments from the ravages of Neo liberal government.

Tom Semmens

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 06:44:28 +1200

I was talking to a young DINKY couple last night, always voted Green. Last Xmas at the height of the market they brought a modest two bedroom place at the height of the market.

They both voted already, for National. As he said, "we want to protect our investment".

And…

Zach Bagnall

Fri, 22 Sept 2017 02:05:32 +1200

Most people I know in UK go back regularly (although appreciate that isn’t the norm everywhere), every 1-3 years so most can vote if they want.

Same – most of my friends in the UK go back every year or two, but then most of them are very high income…

linger

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 23:36:18 +1200

Continuing with TPPA after it was shafted (and then abandoned) by the US offers absolutely no possible net benefit to NZ.
The decision exemplifies National’s economic mismanagement (cf. also the dick move of hiding the studies that prove no benefit from their favorite roadworks. It has been a government of…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 23:32:36 +1200

More on so-called social mobility in this Twitter thread by Thomas Haig. It starts with a Paul Ryan-style remark on the matter, and neatly deconstructs it.

Neil

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 22:45:17 +1200

…but all the same he doesn’t realise he’s playing into the hands of the Brexiteers and Trumpniks

It seems to me English is more a continuation of the Clark govt – the TPP, working with Obama.

It’s not an isolationist stance. More Merkel. Like Ardern seems more Miliband than Corbyn.

Kumara Republic

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 22:37:32 +1200

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924976

Words fail me.

The self-immolator is supposedly connected with Family Court issues. In any case, it's sad that it's even happening.

Bill English may not be Donald Trump or Nigel Farage as some on Twitter compare him, but all the same he doesn't realise he's playing into the hands…

Neil

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 22:24:17 +1200

I think Labour were being less than honest over tax.

They have a very experienced front bench who have spent considerable time working on taxation.

The idea that they somehow don't know what tax changes they would make is a bit absurd.

Labour also continue to blame our problems on…

Sacha

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 22:21:26 +1200

If the promoter is an unregistered third party promoter

Bet they are registered, given their reason for being.

Ben Austin

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 22:00:55 +1200

So far as the three rule goes – it is a bit unjust in the ways pointed out by others already, but is it any more unjust than a comparable rule, like the UK's 15 year hard stop rule. Once you've been overseas for 15 years that's it (although I…

artig

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 21:11:44 +1200

On a related note, the Taxpayers' Union had a full-page ad in yesterday's Herald. The promoter statement only had the promoter as the Taxpayers' Union. If I understand the rules correctly there must also be the name of a member of the organisation who is an authorised representative.

"If the…

Katharine Moody

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 20:26:40 +1200

Not surprising, but…

Dunno. Common sense would suggest the 'bar' for a political party would be far higher than it might be for a laundry detergent.

Their decisions should be subjected to Judicial Review. They have set a dangerous precedent.

Katharine Moody

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 19:57:52 +1200

She hits the nail on the head for me, Dame Anne Salmond;

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/20/49103/dame-anne-salmond-a-final-brief-election-thought

Martin Brown

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 19:51:12 +1200

This is a disappointing cop out by semi-regulatory bodies BSA and ASA. Not surprising, but...

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/21-09-2017/the-bsa-decision-on-lets-tax-this-says-to-political-parties-lie-all-you-like/

Katharine Moody

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 19:28:01 +1200

What an election – from a personal perspective, it's the election of hope, on a knife edge. If we don't get change, liars win and everyone knows it;

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/opinion/2017/09/patrick-gower-national-guilty-of-biggest-campaign-lie.html

So to me no matter how many folks vote National on the evening, every one of them is voting for post-truth…

Jason Kemp

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 17:48:09 +1200

MHF is extremely concerned NZ media outlets are putting vulnerable people at risk by publishing photos & videos of a suicide attempt

Rosemary McDonald

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 16:37:59 +1200

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924976

Words fail me.

linger

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 16:26:19 +1200

Interesting thing: in practice, there is no independent check on where your passport has been between elections, and there is no independent check on whether you are in one of the occupation categories exempted from the NZ residence criterion. By default, you are assumed to remain eligible until you say…

Grant McDougall

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 16:21:57 +1200

I’ve left the largest of the looming deficits facing New Zealand until last: climate change and the environment.

A few close friends of mine are long-term DOC employees. One in particular is very high up in one of the conservancies.

They reckon that National's lack of interest in these issues…

Paul Campbell

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 16:20:17 +1200

I lived in the US for 20 years starting in the mid '80s, the 3 year rule made sense then I was very disconnected from NZ and its politics, even though I went back to visit every 3 years or so I didn't feel that being allowed to vote would…

Zach Bagnall

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:58:20 +1200

They have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years and I suspect a lot won't.

The three year rule is irritating. It's really an economic test – affluent expats who can afford a big NZ vacation between each election get to vote and the rest do not. Really…

Moz

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:40:43 +1200

the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote.

How many of them are eligible, though? Is that 500k who could vote out of 1M total, or 500k total?

They have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years and I suspect…

Russell Brown

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:38:19 +1200

And as I’ve also said before, the advance vote total is heading for over 1 million. (I don’t think it will get very much higher than that, but it’s still comfortably on track for that target.)

Yep. And double what it was at this point last time.

Jim Cathcart

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:19:06 +1200

sometimes feel that I’m living in some sort of a bubble…or an echo chamber..as nearly all of the people around me see that there absolutely needs to be change.

You are living in a bubble,,,a housing bubble without historical precedent. The problem is that nobody wants to label it as…

Grant McDougall

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:12:47 +1200

Optimistic – because if National win, it will be very unpopular very soon, and soon Peters will join Dunne in retirement and the left will win a landslide next time

Completely agree. Bill English – win or lose – has ran his last campaign as National Party leader.

If he…

linger

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 15:00:10 +1200

One has to weigh that 340k number against the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote. Many would have Auckland as their most recent NZ address, which might explain some of the apparent regional disparities.

And as I’ve said before, some of…

Jason Kemp

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 14:39:13 +1200

Sure but Enrolment numbers "3,229,421 eligible voters now on the roll but there are still 340,409 eligible voters who are not enrolled to vote.

“If you haven’t enrolled yet, you can’t leave it any longer. You must get an enrolment form, fill it in and get it back to us…

simon g

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 14:32:23 +1200

The media focus is on Advance Voting, but it's the enrolment numbers that really matter. For 18-24s they're not encouraging, and there are major differences, e.g.

Auckland Central and Wellington Central: 27% vs 63%.

Jason Kemp

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 14:27:28 +1200

Apparently latest advance vote numbers are out so it looks like the early (advance) vote may well be 30% or so. Part of this is because more polling booths 485 compared to 295 in 2014 election.

806k have cast early vote

Source for Stats is Daily voting stats for future…

Jason Kemp

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:45:04 +1200

"hardly ever about people" Ironically Both Key and Ardern show what can happen if you are a nice person or in the case of Key very media / people friendly.

Russell Brown

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:42:25 +1200

Good points about TOP. They need to have the “don’t be a dick” rule as their first rule. I had hoped some of their policies might be picked up by other parties but the personality of Morgan has obliterated any beneficial contributions they might have had.

I think it's been…

Russell Brown

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:40:43 +1200

Rod Oram fact-checks English's claims on income and the economy – and finds them mostly bogus.

Jason Kemp

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:38:01 +1200

I wonder how much having 600,000+ early votes may have counter balanced some of the late swings. I expect the real gap to close as the election approaches but I do think this is the first time extended early voting has been used to this extent.

Elections notes that out…

simon g

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:30:13 +1200

My optimism/pessimism level fluctuates like the spring weather, but anyway:

Optimistic – because post-Helen the Labour party has been varying degrees of disappointing, sometimes depressingly so, and it now looks better (not just in polls but in general "vibe") than it has for over a decade, more like first term…

Rosemary McDonald

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:13:29 +1200

As someone who had to be dragged kicking and screaming to change the habit of a lifetime and actually engage with and vote in this election, I am quite frankly shocked at the cornered feral cat response from the incumbents at the merest hint that there might be a Labour/Green…

dave stewart

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:11:14 +1200

These recent Al Jazeera documentaries about waterways are compelling viewing (part 1 looks at the Ruataniwha Dam proposal, while part 2 is more about Canterbury/ECan):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEO60_8_kME
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uQXCJKRcLM
The evidence presented does not enhance the reputations of Irrigation NZ, HBRC, MoE/Nick Smith.

Paul Campbell

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 13:03:25 +1200

I'm trying to be positive ... still hoping for the first real progressive govt in my lifetime (well maybe Norm Kirk's was, I was young)

william blake

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 12:58:49 +1200

Not so much, it feels like buying a lotto ticket and dreaming about all of the good things possible, but after Saturday night you will probably have to live with the same old bullshit.

Trevor Nicholls

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 12:58:40 +1200

Our information waterways have been inundated with billshit.

Doug Hood

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 12:37:09 +1200

And I’m not alone in just wanting the bloody thing to be over-true that, me too

Public Address

Thu, 21 Sept 2017 12:37:09 +1200

Discussion from blog post.