Now, you could fairly make the point that due to the nature of the primaries Obama did…

Something incisive?

Heh. You beastie you.

For example, he repeated that old Republican lie about how Obama never made a single vote as a a Senator because he was far too busy preparing to run for…

As I understand it, a greater degree of uncertainty in the poll analysis and aggregation would, in general, produce a wider spread of potential results (this might move the 270+ percentage a bit). A mistake in the…

Yup. That would, in fact, be how the number 92% was arrived at. Given that, how is it not accurate to say that the simulations are…

Heh, yes, it's a degree of trust that you can't trust.

I saw an echo of this concern in a BBC article on poll analysts I…

You are kind of sorta correct that it is not the case that 92% is the confidence interval. Let's try this summary of Step 7 of Nate's methodology:
From the polls…

So 92% isn't the confidence interval itself, relating to the statement "Obama gets 270 or more Electoral College…

Funnily enough, Silver's admitted he's used his skills in poker player to clean up in online and "friendly"…

Note I don’t have trouble with anybody saying “72% chance of winning” and “too close to call” and believing…

heh

And those orange dots scattered along the bottom identify topical events when you point to them.

The number of combinations of parties isn't too huge. The number that could form a government is even less. But how to work out what the chances are of one of the combinations being more likely than…

Which, on my understanding, is a rewording of the very definition of "X% likely". Is there a better word for what this kind of confidence used in the 538 modeling is? Or…

The use of simulation seems to…

"I don't want a black guy to be president" isn't really an acceptable response in polite company these days.*

*I'm not saying your guy consciously thinks that. But the irrationality on display in some quarters seems…

How about bringing it up in comic form, with a very timely new xkcd

Keeping some of the finer detail of some of his adjustments private isn't playing the academic game properly, but if he wants to sell his results to somebody to earn a crust (he did say he…

Allow me to point you in the right direction.
That said, he has been criticised for keeping the finer detail of some of his adjustments private, unlikely some of the academic based sites, which are completely open in their…

I'm your friendly resident statistician. That's the good news. The bad news is I haven't read Nate Silver's methodology yet. But if the description of it as a Monte Carlo simulation is right then I can help…

I wish there was a function wherebye I could put tiny wee pointed teeth inbetween my smiles )

-but – nemmind-

Surely the guy is some kind of political performance artist.

Edit: Shame shame shame on me. But I DO see it is now acceptable both ways!!!
Edit 2: oh dear...it is worse that that!!

As occasional reading I am gradually working my way through the long out-of-print "Ignition! An Informal History of Liquid Rocket Propellants" by John D. Clark, which is a somewhat hair-raising memoir of the development of rocketry.
"Phil Pomerantz, of BuWeps,…

That is a scientist with deep committment to his research!
Laughed out loudly -[scared the neighbour's dog-

92% Bet the house on it.
75% Bet the cat
51% Bet a dollar.

The best description of probablility / uncertainty I ever saw it this:

Dr C H Meyer NBS(1935ish)
on his recently calculated Heat Capacity of…

They are fairly easy to do in excel (anyone keen could google monty carlo excel) but the real trick is correctly judging the probabilities you assign to potential outcomes, for which you generally need in depth knowledge…

And suddenly, they're discussing a carbon tax, with evident seriousness. Light returns to the valley.

538 is based on a kind of modelling generally called a Monty Carlo method, where you run the same test (election) lots of times with different random numbers (voter support) to see how likely each…

Not sure I agree with that. Reporting it as 92% likely has a meaning that anyone with higher than year 10 maths can probably understand. Which…

The Econmist calculated that…

What I think 538 are doing is using a mathmatical model that takes data from polls and…

Thank you for that. I think.

And to David Hood

A (very) quick bit of digging into the results

Thank you very much for that too...PAS – explaining stuff in more detail since ages ago

This data journalism thing clearly has a way to go yet.

If so, then they should not say that it's 92% likely, but whatever the likelihood actually is. Because "92% likely" means what it means. I'm not disputing they could be more accurate than that.…

My question too.

I think so, on both counts.

Doesn't mean we should be stocking up the shelter with canned food and ammo. :)

What's the point of the shelter if it's not stocked?

@Bart…

But it isn't. When you poll people they don't answer randomly – that's the point. Each poll is influenced by the type of question asked, who is asking (male female) the economics of the area, the method used (cellphones/landlines/people on the…

The polling is random. But determining the outcome of the election based on polling, demographics, exit polls, and partial results isn't. Bad data going in will mess it up, but Nate Silver is using multiple polls – once you mix together…

If being 92% certain of something doesn't mean…

That's pretty much how the Iowa Democratic caucuses work,…

But it's so much easier to report on a poll than to do a proper analysis of policy and the effects it has on people, by for example, studying the impacts in other countries where similar policies have been put in…

Except that Nate Silverman is not rolling dice. I am not a statistician. But I know enough to know that the statistical analysis of as many polls as he is using is quite different from the analysis you use for a simple dice rolling…

The Libertarian response – is batshit crazy – particularly Perigo’s bullet for Obama view – he has…

I don't know if it's particularly helpful to go there in this context, and there's a simpler (and sadder) explanation. Is this…

Hey, don't diss the pub man! At least when we blather on in defence of the likes of Obama, those against him wont mind in the morning. and apologies if anyone's got upset will follow at the pubs default name (church)…

The language they use: filth unfit to live, degenerates, dregs etc is very similar to what has been used in the lead-up to any number of bloody conflicts.

These are probably…

The thing, is there's plenty of pretty rational criticisms you can make of Obama and his administration from the libertarian/Objectivist (they're not synonymous IMO) — because he's not an Objectivist. Just as I…

Was that before or after the Wackos from Waco got curb-stomped by the ATF? Since leaving politics, Gramm has been part of the Wall Street machine…

It would be like an American issuing threats against the slate of candidates in the Dunedin City Council elections. Pointlessly…

What punches did the Republican Campaign pull? They seemed to attack him on everything from policy to origin, so I’m not quite sure what Perigo thinks they failed to mention. Although I don’t recall seeing…

The guy at LibertarianRepublican.net never saw it coming — because he's seriously estranged from reality:

However, for me, I'm choosing another rather unique path; a personal boycott, if you will. Starting early this…

Jon Stewart was in his element on the Daily Show last night. It's got to the stage where he's no longer making fun of the Fox Network, he stoops to outright contempt. I could link to the…

Last night, I'd have doubted that — I would have thought that the Republican conversation would…

I hope I'm not being too cynical by suggesting that this seems to be a pretty common response. It's why I don't read too many blogs / message…

I agree – the Republicans need to lose again and only then will the GOP purge itself to the degree it begins to position itself where…

Can I just say how much I fucking love it when y'all go and seek evidence on a question and digest it for the rest of us? I like to think it's the soul of the discussions here. Thanks.

Hence: "Keep Austin Weird"

In the reading I have been doing this evening, it has…

Yes, I agree completely. I am thinking mainly about polls for things like preferred Prime Minister or current voting preference, which perhaps don't add much to anyone's understanding of the policy platforms that the prime Minister or the various parties are…

I'm actually kind of hopeful here, for reasons I think showed in the U.S. campaign.…

I'd also like to suggest a general usage note. Todd 'Legitimate Rape' Aiken and Richard 'being impregnated by your incestuous rapist is a gift from God'…

Yup, that's kind of what I was saying. Hawaii might seem powerless and disengaged because the result is often known before a lot of them get a chance to vote. But on the day that it isn't, it…

I guess that depends on what is being polled. Getting poll results on why people support a view is very interesting, can highlight what the common conceptions…

A (very) quick bit of digging into the results suggests that it is not as much of a difference as people worry about (and…

But people only have so much time and energy to absorb information. With so much media content focusing on poll results, it surely must be less likely that the electorate is well informed about…

Not sure about this one. There are electoral systems in the world where…

[Edited to remove spam: Emma]

Yes, and in a proportionately elected parliament, the information about other people's opinions is less useful. However, in New Zealand we do not have pure proportionality, and if I may highlight the plight of the ACT voter…

There are all kinds of individual level psych studies showing you can affect people in the short term in all kinds of ways, I'm thinking more of acutal evidence at a population level with the real world of competing influences. A [[http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2012/11/opinion_polls_do_voters_pick_a_candidate_based_on_polling_data.html|bit…

But is the accuracy of the polls even the main issue? I agree with Bart that inaccurate polling is the worst case scenario, but I repeat my earlier point that foregrounding how people are likely to vote in political coverage,…

Expected result and forgone conclusion are not the same thing.

I agree that Obama’s re-election was certainly expected.

If I roll two dice, I expect I will roll something…

Now now, let's avoid the cliches. Good SF relies on reasonable and consistent extrapolation from known facts using known principles (with the odd bit of artistic licence such as FTL).

I think that he's using the historiological approach of the counterfactual, which similar to,…

There are a whole bunch of psych studies that show most people will change their position on any issue if told that the majority believe something different. Particularly if they are told what the majority believe before they are asked their opinion.…

I'm not sure the probabilities calculated by 538 are quite that simple. I could be wrong but…

I've never seen any actual evidence on this, but have heard lots of people worry about it- both people worrying that being…

Can I just note that even in the most "insane" states, one of every three people you see is voting for the Democratic Party?

The most important thing about the Obama Doctrine is that, like similar efforts by previous (moderate) presidents, it works.

It is by no means perfect of course. But the approach of leaping into conflict as quick as you can clearly does not work. Personally I favour approaches that…

I think the meaning was that this will probably be the last majority of white men voting election. The comment and opinion today has indicated that the population…

Which is why many countries ban polls.

But to get back to…

To be fair, his primary "mainstream" publisher nowadays – Tor Books – has some serious mana in the SF/F community and wouldn't let anything that generally shitty out of the slush pile without beating it to death with a shovel.

http://youtu.be/ZK7neQNl5YM

I mean, not unexpected, but … does anybody there have anything resembling self-awareness?

From another planet, even.

Man! That's a rant and a half!

You mean like the banking crash of 2008 under Bush? All that really lead…

Previous experience indicates that exposing this doctrinaire craziness doesn't make it go away or…

...they had a shedload of nukes pointed at the US?

Nah.Weta's would be more, well, human.

I thought I should refresh my memory before commenting and thus found the Obama Doctrine article on Wikipedia. It didn't know it was a thing either, which is why I put it in quotes.

The first paragraph…

I would've been happy to have experienced that.

Weta Workshops, hopefully.

When you say 'Obama doctrine', I'm not sure I know what it is?

I'm not well enough informed anymore, but I do think it worth noting…

I didn’t see that but I thought some of the early calls were way too early in such a tight race and when voting…

(A situation where Romney refused a bailout, resulting in the collapse of the retail…

Yup.

Well, from U.S. polling we known that 80% of voters made up their minds more than 60 days before the election and so were unmoved by the debates/Sandy/Trump/etc. I think it would be a good thing for democracy if…

Should I have said "the possibility"?

Maybe Romney would have gone back to (or toward?) Bush levels of persecution? Maybe. Because I don't think Obama is, so even the possibility has something going for it.

And further, what does focussing on these questions do for democracy? I guess that as a way of guaging people's reaction to…

No, I'm not. I can't see where I did that at all.…

Based on sports reporting (where the change has already happened), there will be a generational change of pundits informed by their guts to pundits informed by the stats and their guts.…

Actually Nixon promised to end the Vietnam war and it got him so tangled up that trying to find ‘peace with honour’ possibly extended it.

It didn’t help that by 1968…

Hence the Heidi Heitkamp result

I understand that. But there are…

Under Romney?

The possibility that the trajectory around whistleblower persecution would alter?

It wasn't a foregone conclusion. If there are 9 elections where someone is a 92% to win, there's a greater than 50% chance at least one of those elections will see…

It's going to be fascinating to watch. Obama was far more liberal on marijuana reform as a…

Although ... I'm not sure that a future where elections are forgone conclusions is actually all that healthy either.

How do you justify spending hours of TV time on a subject that is a forgone conclusion ... pretend it isn't forgone.

I don't think they're allowed to start counting special votes until 10 days after the election (ie, people have 10 days for the special votes to get to Florida, after that they…

The music geeks here will get it...

[1] Except in Mississippi (Univesity of Mississippi students had a little riot of a few hundred students that burned Obama signs and yelled "racial slurs")

I thought this illustrated the political depth of knowledge nicely:
Kristen Neel
I'm moving to Australia, because their president is a Christian and actually supports what he says.
Mind you, I have heard some stunning bits of ignorance from our own members of Parliament, far worse…

Pick of the bunch:

"The fact that there is a concession speech, not widespread violence, happening now is a testament to America's greatness. #forloveofcountry"

Pick of the bunch:

"The fact that there is a concession speech, not widespread violence, happening now is a testament to America's greatness. #forloveofcountry"

This, and the whole 'we don't really know who Romney is' thing bugs the shit out of me. He has a record. While he was governor of Massachusetts, same-sex…

That's going to be…

Healthcare was a big thing for my family. Whilst many could afford private insurance, many (yes yes there are a lot of Mexicans who are allowed to stay legally) found such things like smaller injuries (breaking ones arm) prohibitive. What…

the difference this time is that Obama isn't promising anything that would need congress to cooperated with him.

Andrew Sullivan's brutal fisking of David Frum's *cough* odd endorsement of Romney is still worth quoting, because…

There are people out there currently making Trump look reasoned and dignified.

If you read The Economist regularly enough to take its fundamentally classical liberal editorial pulse, it’s hardly surprising that it has a lot of issues with the…

Well, recognition will go rewarded every time if you've been waiting patiently for like y'know foreva . The Dems can definitely work on getting their allegiance. I reckon

Nope, it never is in politics.

I did see (others did too I'm sure) some discussion about how the young vote (18-29)is heavily in favour…

No, I mean the man who was president of a union. One of whose first acts as Governor was to sign into law bills that liberalized access to…

Who knows, but I don't think it would be a particularly smart long game for Democrats to assume African-Americans and Hispanics are theirs, electorally speaking.

What a truly STUPID shithead is like eh?

What's so remarkable about Obama's speech is…