The fact remains that the epidemic strain of the disease was waning naturally before rollout.

That would be a pretty good argument. Except that the epidemic strain also naturally waned to a similar level in 1998. But then it waxed again (see graph). So what great exists to differentiate that…

You sure have a bee in your bonnett.

"ron/ross has been throwing around so much misinformation".

So much misinformation that you can't actually say what it is. You do not get to pass Go and collect $200.

"ron – if someone contracts the disease despite being vaccinated they have…

I'm not sure by that comment Jon. Your wife should know that the proramme…

I had a chat with my better half about this last night, as she is a scientist working in medical research. She indicated that it's likely that given the vaccination program is only a few years old that it may be too early to really be able to…

I'd expect that if people are vaccinated against a particular disease, infection…

I couldn't see where Don got this quote from:

"The fact is that the rate of hospitalization is the same for vaxed and non-vaxed kids".

Ron said:

"Rates of infection are almost identical for both populations. The vaccine isn't working".

I'd expect that if people are…

The fact is that the rate of hospitalization is the same for vaxed and non-vaxed kids.

ron – if someone contracts the disease despite being vaccinated they have exactly the same chance of ending up in hospital as someone who contracted the disease and was not vaccinated. That is not…

James wrote: "Thus, if you're looking at cost savings, then there is saved cost not only from prevented deaths, but prevented hospitalisations".

No argument there. But the cost of hospitalisation is low. Why spend a fortune on a disease that doesn't cost a lot to treat, and…

Fictitious claim #3

Between 2001 and roll-out, the numbers of deaths and cases fell by 70% and 50% respectively. There was no need to commit more than $200 million of taxpayers'…

Meanwhile, am I the only one that immediately balks at claims like '$20m per life saved is too expensive'?

Maybe I'm just being a big wuss lefty.

Fictitious claim #2.

No, it's relatively high. There is no evidence that the vaccine prevents disease. Treating cases with antibitoics is successful in the vast majority of cases…

Fictitious claim #1.

The fact is that the rate of hospitalization is the same for vaxed and non-vaxed kids. So the rate…

As do your fictitioius claims, which you have failed to correct. Intellectual dishonesty of the worst sort.

It's a pity you didn't pull of out of the debate earlier, thus saving us from having to read your fictitious claims, including that meningococcal disease looks like it is being wiped out. I'm sure that will come as a great surprise to those continuing to die from the…

But surely these costs apply with almost any disease?

Yep and as you infer, they're everywhere.

(vacuous look returns to my face which strangely enough looking in the direction of Dunedin).

You refer to costs, or non-market savings, that are incurred when dealing with loss or morbidity. But surely these costs apply with almost any disease? The families of women with breast cancer presumably face the same costs. The families of those killed in road accidents face similar costs. James…

Playing the ball (i.e. addressing the argument) and not the man (i.e. avoiding ad hominem abuse/insults) should be encouraged.

Respect to those who make their point plainly without the need to patronize, insult or retaliate to provocation…

You're welcome, James. Ignore the facts at your peril.

"There were 113 strain cases in 2005, and 259 in 2003, so it's not a great stretch to see how over several years there could be a savings of hundreds.

Yes, there could be…

Nice to make contact with a sharer of the knowlege. Are you a Krakenista?

ross arga warga

One will get this at a Poasyum of the Puter Leat like this.

actually it looks like he's inadvertantly gotten into some deep-crouton treatment.

I'm not sure what figures he's referring to but there were only 161 cases of meningococcal disease last year.

There were 113 strain cases in 2005, and 259 in 2003, so it's not a great stretch to see how over several…

It looks as though he could do with a whole lot of keratin, but may have gotten into the ketamine instead.

Well, the MOH admits that 2001…

nah it's the cretins that put that stuff in there.

cretin
n. mentally and physically deficient person, generally a large- headed dwarf, whose condition is due to deficient thyroid secretion. cretinous, a. cretinism, n.
© From the Hutchinson Encyclopaedia.
Helicon Publishing LTD 2007.

"1-2-3-4 cretins wanna hop some more"

Ramones – 1977

He's been all over the web on the same issue, you have to wonder where did he find the time?

That said, he has just been very gracious over at the Kiwiblog Hustle for Russell thread.

cretin
n. mentally and physically deficient person, generally a large- headed dwarf, whose condition is due to deficient thyroid secretion. cretinous, a. cretinism, n.
© From the Hutchinson Encyclopaedia.
Helicon Publishing LTD 2007.

100% used ketamine on a daily basis

Er, what?

and why are people so anti cretins? all the kiwis that over there say they're really nice

That would be 'Cretans' for the inhabitants of Crete.

Every now and then I like to justify my fully paid up membership of Pedants Anonymous.

anything that reduces the frequency of a behaviour is by definition punishment.

would you also say that applies to positive behaviours as well? I guess for example if people decide to take advantage of a persons good nature that in a way they are being punished for their naivete and…

He's been all over the web on the same issue, you have to wonder where did he find the time?

So thats my bandwidth has been crap all these months.

More seriously, now that that argument is over, I'm going to semi-godwinise. The last person I engaged with who argued like that was a neo-nazi who would post things in German culture groups. He would say stuff like "Aren't there legitimate reasons to question…

You really are a pathetic cretin. Why don't you take up a new hobby, like self-immolation.

Um, okay, so Ross becomes our first ever struck-off user.

Good call. Ross's arguments were driving me crazy, but this was the point where he went over the line. The way I see it,…

You really are a pathetic cretin. Why don't you take up a new hobby, like self-immolation.

Um, okay, so Ross becomes our first ever struck-off user.

I've been wondering about it for the past of couple days: trolling the way he has been changes the tone of discussion and makes…

In 2004, 4 people (across all age groups) died from the epidemic strain; in 2005, 6 people died fromthe epidemic strain. That's an absolute increase of 50%.

I can't see the figures for the epidemic strain but for all B types it was 5 and 7. However, if you do…

You really are a pathetic cretin. Why don't you take up a new hobby, like self-immolation.

Sorry to hear that.

Back in 2003, a Norwegian professor of pediatrics claimed that there were…

The MOH said it. I presume you're outraged (even mock outrage will do).

As for your "critique", and I use the word loosely, I have no idea where you obtained your figures. My figures come from the MOH,…

not commendable

That related to side-effects. Not deaths. Way to misquote me.

bad science

Uh, where did anyone say 2 actual deaths and MoH 7? And speaking of bad science, no response to my critique of your own bad 'science'? Happy to discuss Herceptin, but if your argument falls over…

Hmmm, so if the MOH says there have been seven deaths when there have only been two, that's "not commendable". Weasel words. It's actually bad science, unethical and bad policy. Oh, and a gross misuse of more than $200 million. But…

Are you for real, Russell? Clearly, you think that 13 deaths is a laughing matter (unless of course a baton may have been involved and then it's deadly serious).

http://www.medsafe.govt.nz/profs/Datasheet/f/Fenpaedsusp.htm

I think the MoH played down the possibility of adverse reactions more than was wise.

This is exactly what pissed me off. Had I had the information that came out through PA in the first place, I would still have had my kids immunised, but I would have done it…

There is definitely some interesting stuff in there, but packaging it in an explicable fashion for public consumption would be pretty difficult. There's an enormous number of different considerations in there.

I think the MoH played down the possibility of adverse reactions more than was wise. Our older boy was…

I think there are legitimate questions about the way the MeNZB rollout was handled, but these aren't those.

There is definitely some interesting stuff in there, but packaging it in an explicable fashion for public consumption would be pretty difficult. There's an enormous number of different considerations in there.

I'm…

those fancy book-learnin numbers are a bitch eh ross when you're using them against people who can like, count and read and stuff.

Ross's facts come from the Ron Law/Barb Sumner lobby. Their use of the "unexplained deaths" phrase was scurrilous, but obviously, "other causes" doesn't sound scary enough.

I…

"the number of deaths has increased"

Incorrect. The number of deaths for 04 and 06 are lower than every year since '96; and 05 is lower than all pre-vaccination years except 03.

"Figures for 2006 show that incidence of the disease continues to be at epidemic levels, depsite the stated…

What do they mean by '13 unexplained deaths'? Does it mean they were caused by meningococcal disease?

Basically, it just sounds scarier when they put it that way.

The fact is that the…

You're wrong. It is an absolute AND relative increase. As the writers make clear, there are 13 unexplained deaths. Although the number of cases has fallen, the number of deaths has increased, causing the large increase in the…

My initial scrabble to defend my hypothesis would be to ask how many Otago cases were students...

What are you talking about the cost being relatively low? This has been the most expensive health initiative ever! As…

The epidemic was waning BEFORE the vaccine was rolled out. The death rate and the incidence had dropped dramatically. A quick search of the internet will give you the exact figures, but such was the fall in numbers that the expected reduction in deaths from the vaccine was simply…

half of the population could've been given the vaccine and the other not. So we'd have seen whether it worked or not.

Of course they could have done that. However, if it is accepted that there is little risk to the vaccine, and that the relative cost is low enough,…

A pan-European cancer campaign was under intense scrutiny last night over the scale of involvement of the world's leading maker of cancer drugs.

Cancer United, which is due to be launched with a fanfare in Brussels tomorrow, is being presented as a pioneering effort…

But the so-called epidemic was already waning. Furthermore, half of the population could've been given the vaccine and the other not. So we'd have seen whether it worked or not.…

I would love to see that…

i'm sure it's just coincidence that Young still toes a freemarketist line to the letter, often to the point of absurdity.

i'm sure it's just coincidence…

none of this has anything to do with gender or the possible influences of 'an orgasm and a bit of pillow talk'. it would be…

What next? Britney Spears doing psych assessments and drug/alcohol counselling for CYPFS? :) To be bluntly cynical, there's probably more 'real journalists' in the room…

I believe the Press Gallery refused to give her accreditation to report from Parliament on the grounds that she cannot be considered a real journalist – I don't think she's wildly…

but anyway, i hear ms coddington is about to get rather seriously whacked by the press council over her asian invasion hysteria piece.

Really? Wow. You actually have to mess up pretty badly to have the Press Council get angry at you.

You're missing the point, Ridley – and I don't blame you. I think it's pretty fucking patronising – and more than a little sexist – to suggest Kathryn…

but anyway, i hear ms coddington is about to get rather seriously whacked by the press council over her asian invasion hysteria piece.

i wonder if she might be partisan?

as for wholesale public particpation in pharmac decisions! have you noticed how attentive to fine detail the majority of the public is? they nearly voted The Don in as PM for…

I was just looking at this PDF. Go to page 25, "Incidence by Deprivation". In the under-fives, Decile 10 has a rate 5 times as high as decile…

It's vaguely heartening to discover I'm not the only one in this hemisphere grieving into my coffee. Group hug?

Heh, I'm shocked.

Hugs are definitely called for, and a gentle pat, and a "there, there" wouldn't go amiss either.

*sniffs*

As well as being a West Ham fan (which automatically makes him a good bloke)

You do know our club song includes "..fortune's always hiding, I've looked everywhere..."?

It's vaguely heartening to discover I'm not the only one in this hemisphere grieving into my coffee. Group hug?

It probably also makes him a bloke who after this season's shenanigans by the Hammers, is crying into a warm pint of flat beer.

Crisis, I wish! This morning it descended into total farce. You do know our club song includes "..fortune's always hiding, I've looked everywhere..."?

Honestly, we've only…

Yes, and if some people in the comments box have their way Jane Clifton and Joanne Black need a good purging because of the ideologically unsound jobs of their respective spouses/long-term partner.

Well, I live in the sticks and wouldn't have a clue who her belly warmer is. But God…

This was the reasoning, IIRC, for the decision not to conduct Stage 3 trials.

It harks back further as well. (I didn't have time to add this to my post earlier.) Austin Bradford Hill's (co-discoverer of the smoking-lung cancer link, and reknowned epidemiologist) famous paper concludes that there are times…

There is also the fact that because it's a now issue, delaying it would miss the point of it.

This was the reasoning, IIRC, for the decision not to conduct Stage 3 trials.

Yes, and if some people in the comments box have their way Jane Clifton and Joanne Black need a good purging because of the ideologically unsound jobs of their respective spouses/long-term partner.…

As well as being a West Ham fan (which automatically makes him a good bloke)

It probably also makes him a bloke who after this season's shenanigans by the Hammers, is crying into a warm pint of flat beer.

Ah, sport, sense the relief.

Are you saying that the govt is in the business of committing more than $200 million without knowing the likelihood of success?

I don't know about $200 million, but I haven't seen any hard evidence that specific tenets of the road safety campaign work (sure the road toll is dropping,…

The prime witnesses (ie, the accusers) in the last two trials both ADMITTED they'd lied about key details when cross-examined. What part of that statement don't you understand?

Actually, the woman in the most recent case stated that the police mis-recorded her statement (that she was involved in a relationship…

The MeNZB vaccine has been the biggest health initiative ever. Are you saying that the govt is in the business of committing more than $200 million without knowing the likelihood of success? And, no, to find out if something works, you do trials before deciding if it's worth going…

Meanwhile, over at the Fundy Post, Paul has his wicked, godless fun with the nether regions of the same newspaper.

Heh, I enjoyed that. As well as being a West Ham fan (which automatically makes him a good bloke), Steve Braunias was both funny and a degenerate. Joanne Black is…

And there's no evidence that it has saved any lives. Of course, the Heath Ministry promised it would save dozens of lives even though it admitted there was no efficacy data on the vaccine.

The evidence as to whether it has saved lives is still a couple of years away.…

The prime witnesses (ie, the accusers) in the last two trials both ADMITTED they'd lied about key details when cross-examined. What part of that statement don't you understand?

>...perjured themselves under oath, and are flat out liars for…

What a surprise. You can't debate the issues, so you get personal.

You might like to reflect on the fact that none of the 36 jurors who, unlike you, heard the evidence over three…

Clearl, my arse – for all you and I know, that jury reached their verdict through a 'rock, paper, scissors' round robin. they could have reached a not guilty verdict though any number of trains…

What you're doing is accepting the sworn statements of some witnesses and not others.

Pardon? There were witnesses able to state authoritatively that none of the defendants had ever used a police baton as part of a sexual act? I clearly missed that part.

Honestly Ross, I as I've said…

What you're doing is accepting the sworn statements of some witnesses and not others. Clearly, the jury didn't agree with you about the credibility of…

Which is why there's been so much opposition to the meningococcal B vaccine roll-out, which has cost taxpayers more than $200 million. And there's no evidence that it has saved any lives. Of…

Perhaps I am missing your point – or vice-versa – I don't disagree that one of Pharmacs problems is legitimacy (indeed, I argued…

We're talking about the organisation that's just laid off Maryanne Ahern – and whatever you may think of Kim Hill or Paul Holmes, they at least had the nous to work with a producer who isn't an amateur who just blew in from…

Can you provide us with some evidence that someone has been violated with a baton.

What Russell said. I think it was acknowledged by some of the parties concerned that a baton was used. The question of consent is the part that was in question.

Craig, I'm not really worried…

Pharmac's problem is one of legitimacy, not instrumental efficacy. Simply technocratically rejigging its mix of drugs funded can never solve its seeming lack of legitimacy in a somewhat open,…

Hmmm, unlike you, I don't believe everything I read in the Herald. Or should we do away with our systme of justice and have the accused's guilt judged by a poll of Herald readers? It sure would save a lot of time and money.

I've explained this in the 'Bad…

Good question. Wish I knew the answer. Again I would be a little wary of adding layers of consultation and process without understanding if it would improve the 'outcome'.

But to take your…

Hmmm, unlike you, I don't believe everything I read in the Herald. Or should we do away with our systme of justice and have the accused's guilt judged by a poll of…

There's the CYFS one, in which the programme's conduct in framing its story was simply outrageous:

http://www.bsa.govt.nz/decisions/2006/2006-058.htm

The Family Court one,…

Agree that measuring the best possible outcome, say in the case of the trade-offs that Pharmac has…

One specific thing that struck me in the article was the way the effectiveness data was expressed. Clearly and, I assume, accurately.

Yes. That was excellent. Not only do the numbers not look nearly as exciting as the relative percentages (50% being bandied round), but you realise just how many…

There are plenty of property developers focused on good outcomes who see the RMA as a well-intentioned but poorly executed piece of legislation (i.e. facilitating lowest common denominator development) and similarly I reckon that most pharma companies are OK with the current health…

If you talk in terms of actual (or example) numbers, you also get to avoid the % sign, much-dreaded and often slightly ambiguous (percentage of what exactly?).

actually come to think of it, the same happens with the RMA and property developers.

Nice to see another side to the story

I think the thing that really amazed me was the origin of the 12-month course as the standard, and the received truth: it's that way solely because Roche said so. I can see how a serious researcher would get unhappy with policy…

Does anyone remember the case of the female police officer who was moonlighting as a prostitute, who…

Well said – regardless of legality, these guys shouldn't be in their jobs just on the basis of professional ethics

Good Herceptin article – I find it interesting that Pharmac have to date been largely silent on the way in which their funding works, leaving themselves open to the…

You're not going to get any argument from me that politics and health go together like me and a bottle of tequila – things get messy and incoherent PDQ. I'm not going to get into any kind of 'partisan stoush' because you've pointed out no party has clean hands…

I totally agree. Can you provide us with some evidence that someone has been violated with a baton. Take your time. Thanks.

Check the Weekend Herald. A few other cops seemed to think it happened more than once.

But glad to see you finally confirm that consensual group sex is "dirty". Or could it be you protest too much?

I don't much mind what consenting adults do, dirty or otherwise (and from the descriptions given over the course of three cases, I think it's fair to say that…

I totally agree. Can you provide us with some evidence that someone has been violated with a baton. Take your time. Thanks.

Well, you do have a point there – remeber when Jim Bolger got char-grilled for making the true but impolitic observation that the problem with health is that people die? (I'm pretty sure then Health Minister Jenny Shipley could have put him in an ICU ward in a heartbeat,)

Without…

Maybe…

perhaps he's still waiting for his co-leader to tell him what to think.

it could be that he's disinclined to comment on a complex matter that is of genuine importance and interest to the nation – but…

Riddley Walker – word.

I am finding it oddly disturbing the lack of examination by the media into the screwed-up ethics here. So, according to the verdict, the young woman wasn't raped. But that was only part of the…

FFS. Maybe she could have cruised past a poor suburb and picked up a couple off the street.

Well, you do have a point there – remeber when Jim Bolger got char-grilled for making the true but impolitic observation that the problem with health is that people die? (I'm pretty sure then Health Minister Jenny Shipley could have put him in an ICU ward in a heartbeat,)…

Good, so it wasn't just me who was creeped out by that photo, then. It was also, AFAIK, the first time I've seen that tattoo: is that all part of the "conspiracy against a Maori police commissioner" thing?

Given the way the pics were posed, I think that's likely too.

http://www.womens-health.org.nz/topics/Herceptin.pdf

i doubt…

:)