Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: Meanwhile back at the polls

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 22 Jun 2014 09:28:26 +1200

Mixed Meme Presentations?
Spot the difference:
Two sets of illusionists are looking for public support in September…
and Picard's lot are always available on disk ...

The Next Generation has definitely arrived!

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 22 Jun 2014 08:36:35 +1200

going gangly busters…
Or This??? …
Argggghhh
which encourages logic like this…
Laurence Day has given $175,000 to the Conservative Party “and there’ll be more to come”. The cashed-up Hamilton businessman is furious that Kim Dotcom is trying to buy political influence in New Zealand. So Day is putting his…

Steve Barnes

Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:28:29 +1200

I will like totally freak you out with ideas like using a spanner as a hammer in the work place. Or operating a bandsaw when I’m wearing my pajamas.
Or This???
And they say the Greens are scary
Argggghhh

Steve Barnes

Sat, 21 Jun 2014 11:25:13 +1200

Shearer looked far from Prime Ministerial.
That is purely because we, as New Zealanders, have come to expect our PM to be a show pony that drinks beersies at barbies, takes the piss out of serious issues and thinks we are not interested in anything other than money.
I think…

BenWilson

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 12:45:17 +1200

Yes, what's it at now? 49.5% Nat, 28% Lab? But the buzz has shifted to the Stuff poll putting the Nats on 56% and Labour on 23%. To get a discrepancy of 6.5% in two polls around the same period tells me that they either aren't using anywhere near the…

David Hood

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 12:28:46 +1200

My opinion is that it is an outlier poll, we will know in another 2 weeks- I thought it looked to much like the random sample happened to hit a lot of National voters and few Green voters- I just didn’t see the Greens doing anything in those two weeks…

izogi

Wed, 11 Jun 2014 12:12:06 +1200

Thanks for that.

Joe Wylie

Wed, 11 Jun 2014 12:06:26 +1200

this story from The Press this morning makes me wonder what’s going on even more. Specifically — “a joint research project by the Taxpayers Union and Fairfax Media”.
A bit more depth here

Sacha

Wed, 11 Jun 2014 11:25:22 +1200

Libertarian lobbyists equating performance with not spending, demanding asset sales – hardly news by now, you'd think. Being able to subsidise struggling media organisations must be an enticing enough carrot to excuse the slant, I guess.

izogi

Wed, 11 Jun 2014 09:45:24 +1200

Williams is a classic rent-a-quote. He’ll fire out inane press releases and respond to journalists’ calls even when he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Sorry to stray from the original topic, but this story from The Press this morning makes me wonder what's going on even more. Specifically ---…

nzlemming

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 14:52:00 +1200

A fall in the House of Usher?

Russell, we need a "LOL" button...

nzlemming

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 14:50:42 +1200

Scary? What kind of chicken shit do you have to be made of.

+100 Score, Stephen! :-)

nzlemming

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 14:43:04 +1200

I need to edgeler this bit

I suspect "edgeler" will be in the running for WOTY for 2014

Matthew Poole

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 10:41:08 +1200

I wonder if Roy Morgan
and Val Morgan are related?

How about Captain Morgan?

I see you're keeping with the spirit of Ian's humour.

Pete George

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 10:38:58 +1200

Craig may not get a lot of confidence from Key if his public statemenst are all there is to go on.
Asked whether he was willing still to do an electorate deal for Craig, Key said “he hasn’t approached me”, but believed Craig was not seeking such an arrangement, citing…

Roger Lacey

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 10:21:33 +1200

I wonder if Roy Morgan
and Val Morgan are related?

How about Captain Morgan?

Tim Michie

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 10:17:28 +1200

I'm encouraged by Craig's lack of confidence he could win by virtue of his own campaign and policies. National looked wary of these deals and I hope this prevails and Craig is correct.

Sanya Baker

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 10:14:40 +1200

If Colin Craig manages an electorate "accommodation" I wouldn't see his entry to Parliament as anything other than buying his way in – he certainly purchased most of the media attention he has garnered over the last 6 years with his own personal fortune.

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:44:10 +1200

...one of them is dead
A fall in the House of Usher?

Andrew Robertson

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:41:39 +1200

When he or she is referring to media reports, probably not.

James

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:33:06 +1200

Should it worry us when a statistician says he's seen something happen more times than I can count

Mr Mark

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:32:11 +1200

Cheers, Andrew. Appreciate you going to the trouble to clarify things.

Geoff Lealand

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:15:58 +1200

I know one of them is dead.

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:08:44 +1200

I wonder if Roy Morgan
and Val Morgan are related?

Andrew Robertson

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 07:30:55 +1200

I’d be interested to know if the same is true of those excluded from the Colmar Brunton because they said they were more likely than not to stay at home this election.

Those figures aren’t shown because the base for unlikely-to-vote(rs) is really small, especially after excluding the undecideds/refused to…

Mr Mark

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 06:55:01 +1200

No, I certainly don't see Undecideds as a bad thing either.

I'm really more interested in what methodology Roy Morgan use to end up with such an unusually low proportion.

As far as likely non-voters go ( separate , of course, from undecideds, though partially overlapping), it would be nice…

Pete George

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 06:45:12 +1200

As a point of anecdata, I had a conversation with an in-law who used to vote Labour but wouldn’t this time because he thought The Greens would then get to control the country.

It isn’t the first time I have heard that. It’s an interesting and frustrating situation for both…

Andrew Robertson

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 06:28:24 +1200

Perhaps, unlike Colmar Brunton , they (Roy Morgan) don’t ask about intention-to-vote, and therefore don’t exclude those unlikely to vote ?

It's very possible they don't filter on likelihood to vote, but I don't think that would make the difference because the % of undecideds in the CB poll is…

Mr Mark

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 02:16:17 +1200

"There's nothing in particular wrong with the company's methodology"

The thing that really intrigues me about Roy Morgan is their unusually small proportion of Undecideds – consistently far lower relative to the other 4 public polls.

I'm wondering if they follow Andrew's One News Clomar Brunton modus operandi in prompting…

linger

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 00:44:03 +1200

I’m sure there’s a constituency out there for a Disenchanted Party
but I suspect more votes would be attracted to a Social Party.

(Meanwhile, those thinking of a Public Address Party would be well advised to consider the acronym carefully, regardless of the idea’s obvious merits.)

martinb

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 23:06:10 +1200

I've thought- completely non-seriously- about starting a GST Taxpayers Union seeing as how we are not represented in the net tax figures. And how there are so many of us.

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 19:16:13 +1200

The way I see it, it seems the internet party is happily hacking the system,
and with Mana have now created an open source Trojan Horse

Stuxnet for electoral processes
(actually that might be The Civilian Party)

But no sleight of hand
all above board, Trickster stuff
Jones was Loki…

Deborah

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 19:01:42 +1200

Mike Smith has now posted his follow-up. He begins:

David Cunliffe badly needs a new stump speech. On Thursday in Whanganui I heard him depress a large and sympathetic audience for ten minutes with tales of national woe, then promise a positive campaign but give no details.

I was in…

Tinakori

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 18:33:35 +1200

Jones was a guy who happened to be both a great communicator and wealthy and rode a wave of discontent to create a high profile for his NZ Party, a more incisive version of Winston or Jim Anderton (the last of whom he once described as his closest friend in…

izogi

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 18:17:40 +1200

Williams is a classic rent-a-quote. He’ll fire out inane press releases and respond to journalists’ calls even when he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

True. I don't think I'd mind so much if he didn't purport to be speaking for me, and apparently for every person in NZ who…

Russell Brown

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 17:58:45 +1200

Robert Jones

Good point.

Sacha

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 17:42:53 +1200

no single individual has attempted to buy a political agenda in NZ in quite this way before

Robert Jones

Russell Brown

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 17:20:52 +1200

Williams is a classic rent-a-quote. He'll fire out inane press releases and respond to journalists' calls even when he doesn't know what he's talking about. His Tax Day release was so incoherent as to be bonkers.

izogi

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 16:59:53 +1200

I’m dismayed by the way the mainstream media use the prime minister as a political commentator and allow him to put his spin on other parties’ policies without question.

I feel similarly about how Jordan Williams is increasingly being used as a spokesperson for "all taxpayers", apparently by reason of…

Roger Lacey

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 16:20:43 +1200

I'm dismayed by the way the mainstream media use the prime minister as a political commentator and allow him to put his spin on other parties' policies without question.

Pete George

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 15:58:19 +1200

The thing about all this that unsettles me the most is the demonstration provided by the Internet Party of how much campaign funding matters, even in NZ politics.
Funding helps but it's not necessarily an election winner.

Last election the Conservative Party spent $1.88 million, more than any other party…

Grant Taylor

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 15:33:10 +1200

The risk is that the hoopla from one small, rich party will get a good deal of attention and bring some welcome novelty

The thing about all this that unsettles me the most is the demonstration provided by the Internet Party of how much campaign funding matters, even in NZ…

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 14:30:46 +1200

If another couple of polls agree with this then Key may be tempted to use the Banks debacle as an excuse for an early election.

That's extremely unlikely. All of the mechanisms for an election have been set in place (by the Electoral Commission, parties, media, others) and we're just…

Euan Mason

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 13:42:59 +1200

If another couple of polls agree with this then Key may be tempted to use the Banks debacle as an excuse for an early election.

BenWilson

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 12:41:15 +1200

As you can see, there are a few gaps here and there.

Pretty good start, though. Righteous work, sir.

David Hood

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 12:17:17 +1200

My opinion is that it is an outlier poll, we will know in another 2 weeks- I thought it looked to much like the random sample happened to hit a lot of National voters and few Green voters- I just didn't see the Greens doing anything in those two weeks…

Ian Allan

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:27:52 +1200

I've have to keep reminding my folks that the climate change denial from Leighton Smith is downright irresponsible. I sometimes wonder if he's breaching broadcasting standards: "Talkback radio will not usually be subject to the accuracy standard, except where the presenter makes an unqualified statement of fact."

Pete George

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:24:21 +1200

Mike Smith has now posted his follow-up. He begins:
David Cunliffe badly needs a new stump speech. On Thursday in Whanganui I heard him depress a large and sympathetic audience for ten minutes with tales of national woe, then promise a positive campaign but give no details.
And later:
Too…

Ian Allan

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:18:03 +1200

I think there is something strange going on out there particularly in the older (voting) public. It seems that there is very little acceptance that The Greens have shed their more extreme views and are now a much more serious party and hence more reasonable.

Listening to ever-popular NewstalkZB, particularly…

Andrew Robertson

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:17:12 +1200

...this degree of difference (consistently around 5% points at the last election)

Perhaps the standard for how precise polls should be is set too high. I'm not sure about what poll you are talking about, but I was fairly impressed by how well some of them did at the last…

Pete George

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:10:11 +1200

It wasn't two days in advance. It was initially posted at Trade Me at 3:04 pm Wednesday 4 June. That evening I searched Roy Morgan (in various ways) with no sign of any published results.

I found published results the following afternoon, as did someone who posted the link on…

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 11:01:29 +1200

You know, since the dawn of population survey research the samples have been flawed. This hasn’t just come about in recent times because of increasing land line non-coverage. Land line non-coverage is just one of many potential sources of error, and in my view it’s not the most important one.…

Andrew Robertson

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:41:08 +1200

I’m becoming more and more convinced that there is serious landline bias, but I don’t believe it’s the saviour of anyone.

Hi George

You know, since the dawn of population survey research the samples have been flawed. This hasn't just come about in recent times because of increasing land line…

Henry Barnard

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:32:53 +1200

a regular poster had the exact headline results of the Roy Morgan two days in advance.

One can get ahead of the media on this by using `follow that page'. I saw them on Thursday last week.

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:29:36 +1200

When they all move together, that’s what we expect — it’s not evidence that the swings are real.

I just looked at the last 4 movements in GCR, and compared them to voting intention in favour of parties in the current Government.

+8.5 (GCR), +8 (Gvt.)
+3.5 (GCR), +2.5 (Gvt.)…

Craig Ranapia

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:20:14 +1200

Purely for informational purposes, here's Mike Williams'... um, interesting musings on that Missing Million we're probably going to hear a lot more about.

Peter Green

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:18:54 +1200

And, significantly, the swing is reflected in the regular Government Confidence Rating

I need to edgeler this bit. If your outlier poll has sampled too many National voters, then you'll get increases in party vote, preferred PM, and govt confidence. When they all move together, that's what we expect —…

Alec Morgan

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:18:23 +1200

Some truth but not stonkingly major truth is my attitude to polls given the disparity between the actual 2011 election results and main polls prior predictions. Last week at TradeMe message board, a rather tawdry National friendly place, a regular poster had the exact headline results of the Roy Morgan…

Craig Ranapia

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:15:10 +1200

I don’t think the spluttering was really that coherent, but it probably is true that a large-ish group of non-tribal voters sees a multi-party centre-left coalition possibly relying on New Zealand First and Kim Dotcom as less secure than what they currently have with National.

Quite possibly – and I…

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:13:20 +1200

Polls bounce. The last poll may have been up a lot – 13.5% is well into the upper range of current Green polling – and thus the actual drop may be less. In the order of 20 or so voters saying that they would vote for someone else on the…

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:05:24 +1200

As a point of anecdata, I had a conversation with an in-law who used to vote Labour but wouldn’t this time because he thought The Greens would then get to control the country.

Quite so. There are likely to be many, and private polling by Labour (they wouldn't have money…

Henry Barnard

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 10:02:27 +1200

But getting back to the poll, isn't it the case the `shocker' is the drop in the Greens number? From 13.5 to 9? The Labour number, at 29, is not much different from where it has been hovering, around 30, all this year. An outlier? Quite likely, in my view.…

Bart Janssen

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:53:41 +1200

As a point of anecdata, I had a conversation with an in-law who used to vote Labour but wouldn't this time because he thought The Greens would then get to control the country.

It isn't the first time I have heard that. It's an interesting and frustrating situation for both…

George Darroch

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:51:15 +1200

This is something I have…

Russell Brown

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:34:44 +1200

As you can see, there are a few gaps here and there.

Indeed!

Andrew Robertson

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:21:05 +1200

I've tried to compare the methods used by different polling companies, using info I can find in the public domain. As you can see, there are a few gaps here and there.

Public poll methods grid

(Although I've mentioned this here before, it's probably important to state for…

izogi

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:17:23 +1200

It’s possible that this is an outlier poll

Yep.

Pete George

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:11:58 +1200

...despite Cunliffe unquestionably looking more confident, competent and potentially Prime Ministerial than Shearer ever did.
But the Shearer standard is not very hard to beat.

Cunliffe's confidence seems to vary quite a bit and has been noticeably knocked at times.

Competence (or lack thereof) is one of Labour's biggest hurdles.Cunliffe…

Andrew Robertson

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:11:43 +1200

...there’s nothing in particular wrong with the company’s methodology.

I agree this is probably correct, but it would be nice if they did actually give a few details about their methodology somewhere.

Pete George

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:02:57 +1200

...but it probably is true that a large-ish group of non-tribal voters sees a multi-party centre-left coalition possibly relying on New Zealand First and Kim Dotcom as less secure than what they currently have with National. They don’t even have to greatly like National to feel that way.
I think…

Public Address

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 09:02:55 +1200

Discussion from blog post.