Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch and listen

mccx

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 14:27:28 +1200

You just can’t randomly ring up a thousand people over and over again and keep getting incorrect answers.

That's not what I meant. I don't mean that during the act of being polled people's minds are changed (though push polling may exist) or that the results are incorrect, I mean…

BenWilson

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 13:47:54 +1200

I'm not convinced that polls drive the results. Some evidence to that effect would be good, although it's actually hard to see what kind of evidence would be effective.

tussock

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 13:41:55 +1200

One media influence I find particularly worrisome is how opinion polling appears to drive voting preference as much as reflect it.

There's a huge bunch of bullshit talked around individual poll results, the media over-play the ups and downs, but the trends are real and have some meaning behind them.…

tussock

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 13:26:00 +1200

But at the same time they gave their party vote to National.
There's a lot of people in every seat vote for a Red candidate and the Blue party, or a Blue candidate and the Red party. Believe it or not, sometimes people who like one party also like a…

tussock

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 13:22:08 +1200

The relationship with The Greens was toxic to Labour, too many people I spoke with were simply afraid to vote Labour. Rightly or wrongly they perceived The Greens as dangerous to NZs economy.

Uh, you're talking to National party voters? That's their attack ad. "NZ CAN'T AFFORD A LABOUR/GREENS GOVERNMENT".…

mccx

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 13:20:12 +1200

But like it or not the media reflected the actual voters.

To an extent the media did reflect the public's interest, but arguing that means ignoring the difference between the public's interest and the public interest and allowing the media to avoid any responsibility for pursuing the latter.

One media…

BenWilson

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 12:20:08 +1200

I don’t get the joke. Maybe its because I attended protest marches around Eden park during the 1980s in which Minto played a huge part in organizing.

Yup, if I was in Roskill I'd have given him my vote, just for the novelty value of being able to say what…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 11:28:23 +1200

I don’t know why and I don’t think the Labour party know why.

So it seems.

Greg Dawson

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 11:28:08 +1200

Rightly or wrongly they perceived The Greens as dangerous to NZs economy. Somehow Labour has to sort out an environmental policy that stands alone independent of The Greens so that those voters can feel they can vote for the environment by voting Labour without the negative perceptions around The Greens.…

Bart Janssen

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 11:26:16 +1200

I really wouldn’t read too much into the local votes.

True, but the pattern was replicate in several electorates. Ignore at your peril.

I’m in Mt Roskill too and I knew that Goff was always going to win no matter who I voted for. I was even joking with people…

Simon Lyall

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 11:04:11 +1200

They need to get out and understand what people in my electorate (Roskill) were actually trying to say when they voted for Goff but against Labour. There is a message there that Cunliffe and the party leadership is not hearing.

I really wouldn't read too much into the local votes.…

Craig Ranapia

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 10:29:09 +1200

Jeanette Fitzsimons made a good point on Nat Radio earlier:…

Bart Janssen

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 08:37:33 +1200

I’m sure the “blame the media” meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left

Agreed. There is an element of frustration in that. But like it or not the media reflected the actual voters. As amazed as some of us were that the media did…

Ian Dalziel

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 08:06:57 +1200

Cockneyed rebel...
...the Alf show, about the annoying alien, where he revealed to his host family that all along he’d been nothing but a sock, onto which they’d projected their fantasies. Initially they refused to believe him, but once he insisted they turned nasty, even stomping on him for having…

Craig Ranapia

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 06:46:51 +1200

The difference is that the left don’t do the dirt like the professionals, they don’t do sneaky.

No, professionals wouldn't have done such a bang up job of derailing their whole campaign into a tabloid freakshow. I know this might be beyond belief, but I didn't talk to an awful…

Steve Barnes

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:45:42 +1200

I guess that's why Brash – or the hollow tieless shirt that he turned out to be – doesn't socialise much these days.
Oh come on, be fair. He was there at the ACT thing with whatshisname and that bloke. Great socialiser. The kind of guy my Mother would have…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:39:45 +1200

Got to hand it to Dotcom for admitting screwing up.

And why not? People should be able to admit if they think they got it wrong. I have seen nothing but a man who as he discovers the truth, shares it. He has done nothing to any of us except…

Steve Barnes

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:34:24 +1200

I'm sure the "blame the media" meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left, just as it was for too many bloody Tories after we got our arses slapped with a "RETURN TO SENDER" sticker in 2002 and deservedly so.The difference is that your lot…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:24:07 +1200

Did anyone else notice Don brash dressed in drag at the Conservative party function?

No.That was ACT Headquarters and it was just a shirt without a tie, very Brotherly of him.
One of those early 90s Australian shows, possibly The Comedy Company, did a parody of the Alf show, about…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:22:23 +1200

After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks.

What I remember was Banks told him how difficult it was to get funds for support and Com thought as a friend he would back his mate. They had got to know each…

Steve Barnes

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:16:07 +1200

Did anyone else notice Don brash dressed in drag at the Conservative party function?No.That was ACT Headquarters and it was just a shirt without a tie, very Brotherly of him though but.
This lot will be gone by lunchtime, I may have to skip lunch for a few months but…

Caleb D'Anvers

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 03:01:18 +1200

Your comparison doesn't stand up, Craig.

We now know from documentary evidence that media attack lines on the Left are directed and coordinated by the Nats and their funders. Those documents reveal only a tiny part of the story, from one narrow time slice, and presumably this has been going…

Josh Petyt

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 02:39:46 +1200

So the Key Nats not only have a mandate to do whatever they want but the have a mandate to carry on with dirty politics. I’m really ashamed of us tonight.

Craig Ranapia

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 02:28:37 +1200

This has NOT worked, the MSM deserves to be robustly criticised, even attacked, discredited and sidelined. It is time that Greens, Labour and others develop new media strategies, and run campaigns that do not rely on the “corrupt” media.

I'm sure the "blame the media" meme is going to be…

Kumara Republic

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 01:18:42 +1200

Dotcom of all people would be aware of that. After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks. From his apparently noble exit I'd like to think that he's above scraping some semblance of a martyr status from the Internet Party wreckage.…

Marc C

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 00:56:19 +1200

I am afraid that early voting is now pretty across the board, as many consider it to be convenient to do so. Hence I did the same, two or three days before the official election date. The votes cast as such are probably more in line with what the general…

Marc C

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 00:47:50 +1200

TV commentators these days have as much credit as a Mr Goebbels a few decades ago!

Joe Wylie

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 00:37:22 +1200

The attacks on Dotcom are rather hilarious when you consider the sort of person who hides behind the infamous National not-so-secret trusts.

Dotcom of all people would be aware of that. After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks. From his…

Marc C

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 00:30:05 +1200

I am 100 percent convinced now, that media bias, that is by core persons in the mainstream media, is facilitating the kinds of election results we are getting, and have been getting since at least 2008.

This is not a coincidence, it is a repeat occasion and business, most media…

tussock

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 00:29:22 +1200

The attacks on Dotcom are rather hilarious when you consider the sort of person who hides behind the infamous National not-so-secret trusts.

Again, congrats to the Nats. Hope they lose a couple on specials yet, but either way it's three more years of nothing like as good as it could…

Trevor Nicholls

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 23:22:44 +1200

more of the same, yes.

nzlemming

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 23:20:51 +1200

Hypocrites.
Well, yes. Were you expecting more from them?

Trevor Nicholls

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 22:40:35 +1200

Paul Henry, who's been rabbiting on about buying influence all night. As if that isn't what his favourite parties have been doing for years. They screamed treason when the free conversion of money into political influence was briefly regulated, and they changed the law to promote it as soon as…

tussock

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 20:31:31 +1200

Early counts are from smaller boxes. The last few boxes counted are from the biggest polling turnouts, which are in the big cities, particularly Auckland. Country towns can skew a long way National, city centres get about 30% Green, 30% Labour, 30% Nat.

Edit: So 28% counted is 28% of…

David Hood

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 20:28:52 +1200

National are actually about 1.5% behind in the advanced vote compared to last election. It is being talked up on the TV though.

nzlemming

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 20:16:38 +1200

Don't toss in the towel yet. Most of the margins are wafer thin.

Caleb D'Anvers

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 20:12:35 +1200

The advance votes look very strongly Blue. Can we assume that early voters tend to skew elderly or more financially secure and are therefore unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole? Because if they are representative, this is looking a bit bleak for the Left.

Public Address

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 20:12:35 +1200

Discussion from blog post.