I said "IF" the Palin story becomes the central story of this election and buries "the issues - economy, climate, Iraq - to minor importance" that McCain will win. Unless you have had your head up the proverbial for the past week you will have noted that an issue (the economy) is front page and Obama is striding ahead. If you read this I know you'll be figuring out how attribute this resurgance of Obama as a Palin thing and lag will be asserted.
Alas I do despair there is a hard core of utter stupids on the left who (along with most of the Republican party who aren't) will bring the Sarah Palin story back to prominence. This will negatively impact Obama and McCain might still win.
I said "IF" the Palin story becomes the central story of this election and buries "the issues - economy, climate, Iraq - to minor importance" that McCain will win.
Oh for gods sake Angus, let it go. All these things are quite clearly in play, including Palin, and on those Obama is rocketing right now. Please pay attention, and please don't put words in my mouth to cover your own missteps and inability to grasp rather easy discussion points.
This will negatively impact Obama and McCain might still win.
But 7 days ago you were definitively say that 'McCain Will Win" and even touting a percentage?
And Angus, just as a final comment on this. I know you're having problems understanding polling beyond the simple figures, but maybe this will help:
Our model has now more or less fully caught up with Obama's "Lehman Leap", and so he cannot expect too many more gains from inertia alone.
Seemingly this rather well regarded pollster has a handle on the idea of lag, that you are having issues with...who to trust on this, you or him?
Most tracking polls also carry a warning about this is you read through their methology or results notes.
You mean the chinese charge by the word? :)
no, but i've heard urban legends about New Zealanders paying by the hour or GB or something, having thresholds and the like after which their connections revert to alt pay scales. someone mentioned something on this site at an earlier date about bandwidth for double up posts i was echoing a sentiment.
the Chinese charge by the month.
Never trust a Grasshopper.
While we're on this tack ....
One day a lion was walking through the forest when he came across a tiny mouse. Being a lion and a predator he was feeling peckish and was about to consume the rodent for a late morning snack. However the mouse whimpered so piteously and with such great distress that the lion paused and reconsidered.
The mouse pleaded for his life pledging that, even though he was but a small and insignificant creature, he would owe the lion a great debt if he'd only but let him live.
The lion, who really didn't think he'd get more than a mere swallow out of a mere mouse acquiesced and let the diminutive rodent go.
A week later the lion was walking through the same part of the forest when he accidentally became entangled in a cunning snare set by a hunter. He thrashed and struggled to break himself free but to no avail. The lion roared until the leaves on the trees trembled and the ground reverberated with his rage and despair. But it was to no avail. His bonds were tight and help seemed all but non-existent.
It was at this moment the tiny mouse whom the lion had spared just a week before scampered into view.
The Lion pleaded with the mouse for his assistance, imploring him to gnaw through the ropes that tied him to set him free and repay the life debt that was owed.
The mouse rested on his haunches and considered matters for a minute. Then with a cheeky grin he gave the lion the finger and scampered off into the undergrowth leaving the lion to the terrible fate of being killed and skinned by the hunter.
Moral of the Story
mice are c**ts
Never trust a Grasshopper.
Funnily enough, I got an email yesterday that apparently been going round - the first bit was a NZ version of an anti-welfarist grasshopper election story that's been circulating internationally with different names for a while but it contained a reply that, judging not least by lack of google results, seems to be new and local:
The story continued: Fast forward December 2011….
Grasshopper finds that his bank has been sold off his and hard earned savings have been sucked up in some unregulated offshore financial black hole nightmare – he wonders why Mr Key would sell such a safe and popular cash cow.
As the economy tightens Grasshopper loses his job and is told that he must take a job at BK flipping burgers for $5.50 per hour – half of what it was when there was a guaranteed minimal hourly rate. This has since been scrapped and the infinite and mysterious wisdom of the free market dictates that this is his new market value pay rate.
Grasshopper is forced to try and reorganize his finances and find somewhere cheaper to live and after finding out that working for families has been scrapped as it was a communist inspired evil which was keeping him down – Grasshopper and his grasshopper son move to a refuge house and live on canned sardines and cockroaches.
Grasshopper watches the TV news to find some old relic resembling the Emperor in Star Wars called Roger Douglas has assumed control of the countries SOE's and is working tirelessly with one Mr Key (and other deadwood ideologues like Lockwood Smith) to set up SOE's for quick fire auction to offshore interests looking to find safe cash cows for their retirement schemes – casualties include: Post Office, Air NZ, Auckland Airport, Rail, ACC.
The outcome is that the majority of Grasshoppers money now flows out to pay to pay offshore transnationals' and good friends on the NZ Business Round Table (who have brokered many of these sales). And as the money flows out of the local economy things become more unpredictable and desperate.
Grasshopper tunes into the Emperor who tells him its time to tighten his belt for a lean and turbulent times. It's all a necessary evil on the pathway of becoming an economic miracle.
Grasshopper has heard this before – about 15-20 years ago in fact, and starts having reoccurring nightmares where he is being fisted from behind with no lube by faceless assailants. It's 1987 - 1993 Déjà vu.
At this point Grasshopper is having serious problems sleeping at night and wonders what benefit he and his family had from a $50 per week tax cut when he now has now so many new user pays, increased bills, less job security and security for his families future.
As the economy takes an uncontrollable dive and their appears to be nothing left in the financial larder and the state borrows more and more at unfavourable rates (due to offshore market volatility caused by a dying empire in death-throws) he wishes he hadn't been so hasty to end the nine year marriage with Helen and Michael.
Though it seemed dull at the time, Grasshopper had become apathetic and had failed to foresee the bleak return to old failed free market policies of the new suitors. He wished he had been smarter and had seen the similarities between this sort of economic management and cause of disaster in the western capitalist system. He cried himself to sleep as he wished for a return to financial conservatism and for some economic stability and security.
Grasshopper and his son were last seen working in a new South Auckland sweatshop making running shoes for the Indian and Chinese market.
MORAL OF THE STORY:
Don't be a greedy short-memory muppet!!**
mice are c**ts
And if Winston gets back in, God help those mice.
hard earned savings have been sucked up in some unregulated offshore financial black hole nightmare
Given the rise in NZ indebtedness to buy grossly overvalued NZ property are you talking about a Japanese grasshopper or a New Zealand grasshopper.
Do you really believe any of the rest of that shit has any basis in reality?