But that was largely true globally, the swing to neo liberalism
didn't really kick off to Thatcher & Reagan's victories. The post war…

Up until 1987 the National party favoured a huge state sector, import controls, subsidies, a fixed exchange rate, industrial intervention, etc. It was basically "socialism run by Tories".

The whole reason centre right party's win elections is enough of that 99% can be convinced their interest lie with policies that also favour the 1%, or that policies that benefit those at the bottom are as much a…

I don't know, and I suspect a venue hasn't been settled on. That might be a reason why there wasn't a big announcement, or perhaps it just wasn't news — that decision got made yonks ago.

You sure?

Since 2nd WW there’s been I think 22 elections, Nats have come out as the biggest party in 14, Labour in 8. Ok, a…

Heh. Isn't the world record like 4 days or something?

So, who do you email in the Labour Party? Have you told any of them lately how you feel? The only mp I haven't heard from in Labour…

Aren't all the people you mention National supporters?

I no longer think of Cunliffe, Mallard, Jones, Curran, O’Connor, et al as being True Labour, more as a bunch of idiosyncratic egos that Labour is riddled with, especially the older ones – their personalities…

I'm not, it just reflects how politics is no longer presented as a battle of than of…

Here's what a real leader sounds like – Metiria Turei discussing this matter coherently and compassionately on Morning Report, and managing to mention party policy too (3 mins, listening options).

Based on the Listener article, if he manages his media presentation as carefully with everything, how the hell would anyone who hasn't met him know anything about what he is like. I just about spat my morning tea all over my keyboard…

And Shearer's…

I've just been listening to Brent Edwards on Morning Report telling us about Cunliffe undermining Labour, and the need…

Stephen, thanks for telling me, well hell,
probably the rest of the country, too.
I hadn't read that anywhere else .
That is…

...

That’s why the media jump all over alleged coup attempts and rumours of war. And it’s why politicians bend over backwards to give the illusion that there is no factionalism within their party. So when a senior caucus member refuses to…

Plenty of head-shaking about lack of basic nous here, I assure you.

You haven't missed it, it's been practically nonexistent. Which isn't to say it's not true, just that…

They could have been informed of such approaches to other people, though. But:

I'm guessing, but I suspect

Is the tale of this weekend.

I'm guessing, but I suspect it's a combination of direct and indirect approaches by Cunliffe's 'team'. Goff and Ardern seem odd additions to this list though.

Wicked. Did they say what they base their opinion of a coup brewing on? I seriously haven't heard any evidence…

Grand. I've no sense of the economy of sane, well considered and moderate analysis but...

Like most of this stuff, I have no idea how true that is.

I'm a little over this Sacha. I say this as someone not directly affected…

On the other hand, the much larger number of people who vote for Labour might prefer that the Labour leader (the leader of the opposition, and potentially the prime…

That Trotter post traces the current factionalism back to the party's Rogernomic rogering. Like most of this stuff, I have no idea how true that is.

Totally agree. Root strategic failure.

I’ll save it for when I’m feeling more equanimous. On average, I used to like three of five of her columns.

As an aside, isn’t it time for talent regeneration… Clifton, Coddington, Henry, Tamihere, even the bloke from Morning Report who married a Hawkesbury……

The sooner this kind of Peoples' Front of Judeaism can be put to rest, the better.…

No one does nasty pointless factionalism quite like the left.
I'm a Green voter, but…

You'll enjoy the Clifton article. :)

I’m just going…

In the long run it may turn out to be self flagellation.

A bit cryptic for me, Russell (which may possibly be because I’m several glasses of wine up). The backlash against DS et al, or the backlash against DC et al?

ETA: The several glasses of wine are due to…

It is an opinion – How it appears to the general public isn't always the same as how it is reported in the media.

To me, as an unqualified member of the public, looking at…

One might be between the Green and Nat positions. Actually one in three is, currently.

I'm still pretty happy about what's happened in this conference, at the end of the day. I'm…

Phil Goff, David Parker, Damien O'Connor, Jacinda Ardern, Kris Faafoi, and Ian Lees Galloway also referenced it publicly as well. I've had on the record quotes from…

Well, why would one? Given that the Greens don't do any of this crap. If one's a righty, and wants to dig up Northland / run slave labour fishing trawlers / watch pr0n videos on the taxpayers dollar, there is always the National…

I must have read too much (or enough?) Emma Hart. The first time I read this as "It's the leather and whips' job".
It'd certainly make Parliament TV more entertaining to watch. Depending on who was wearing the leather. Scratch that: It'd probably mostly…

I think Russell said it might be Mallard, not that it necessarily was. I've no direct knowledge, but I've read that Cunliffe is said to be critical of some of the longer-served MPs.

Confused. Who is Mallard whispering against?

Is it that, or simply driven by a frustration at the whispers, the briefings and speculation that's been going on, and the potential of it overshadowing everything between now…

I expect they'd simply nominate a PM like everyone else. Party leadership is seperate from the constitutional position.

And I wonder if Labour are really a credible coalition partner for when the Greens become the second-largest party.

Mallard had some fairly blunt words about Cunliffe (without naming…

My apologies: the distinction I was trying to make was the implication that an expulsion was being sought rather just than a demotion – which I guess is a kind of discipline. I have to say, like Lucy, all this talk of whips…

To the extent that there's any rules, it does seem accepted practice that you don't openly question the leadership until you're ready to challenge. That does make it difficult to know who genuinely does or doesn't support the Leader.

FWIW, if I were advising…

Is this a groundhog day pattern?

Yes, but openly, during the conference, as part of the debate. They're not pumping secret messages to Claire Trevett, so far as I know.

Sorry, should have quoted more of what Sacha said. He was suggesting that it was the old guard that were pumping the rumour mill. Calling a 34 year old part of the old guard is stretching it.

Relevance?

That's his privilege. But trying to discpline and not just demote a caucus member, something that Chris Hipkins seems to be implying, for exercising his rights would be really worrying.

and Tristan who also said:

I hate what he…

Usually a special general meeting would be called and a position to take into coalition negotiations worked out by the membership.…

That's my point. I don't give much credence to the rumours. The story I was interested in, for which there is multiple corroborations, were the discussions and vote on a matter of important policy. That could have…

I've often wondered how the Greens intend their structure to work if they actually managed to win leadership of Government... 2.5 days a week each and on-off international junkets?

I suspect they are so stuck in the last century they may never have considered the…

No, I said earlier…

again, who do you think has been talking to media?

Did you really notice any of that in the stories over the weekend? Shaping comms is broader than that.

It's not really where they get their ideas from that goes to the facticity of their reporting. It's where they get their evidence from.

Constant leaking and bitchy whispering is another feature of an undisciplined caucus focused more on…

And so long as mouthy culprits like Shane Jones get away…

I think that's wrong…

But if the drip drip continues, that becomes the narrative the public hears. Anything else is pushed to the background, as the you know what stories the press will run.

Having lived through the Blair/Brown briefings/counter briefings bollocks, whilst it was incredibly irritating and…

Multiple audiences, for sure. Best guide for public view is turn the TV sound down and see what story you're left with.

There is that but I was thinking of something much simpler, that internally to members this might appear like a democratic revolution and regaining the party for the grass roots, but…

I guess boy on boy fights are a simpler angle in…

In two weeks, few will remember.

And an interesting one, but here's the thing. Sorry, Chris, but most voters don't know – and care even less — about taking the internal temperature of any political party. And they don't have to; like it or not, parties don't get to determine the criteria they're…

Which is where their party's sustained weakness lies. Changing figureheads won't fix that lack of strategic and marketing nous.

Except there's nothing about how all this is going to appear to the general public.
I suspect they might find it appears quite different.
Not to mention that whilst not wishing for some kind of Blairite banality, 'taking their party back' won't mean much if all it…

http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2012/11/revolution-on-conference-floor.html

Exactly. To demote Cunliffe would be a waste of his talent, especially if he ends up channeling John A Lee. Shearer & Cunliffe could do worse than to read the modern history books. And they don't seem ideologically apart as Lange & Douglas were.

There was…

Then again, it’s not particularly helpful to be responding to your leader’s keynote conference speech (and a non-trivial policy announcement, incidentally) with “oh, the ideas were fine”. Gee, that wasn’t only…

Do all the 'It's all the media's fault', 'Cunliffe's done nothing wrong' expect us to swallow the 'there was no leadership challenge nonsense, realise they've cocked it up, or are playing some longer game?

Yup. That and a return to economic nationalism have been pretty big turn offs for me.

I'm interested to see how this new housing policy will turn out though – at first glance it seems to be a step back in the right [ahem] ...correct direction.…

Yup, you're screwed.

Fair enough. But I'm observing from 11,000-odd km away, so I'm not getting a lot of the wider context, which may partially explain why I read Hipkins' comments differently. My take was that he was saying "let's just get this leadership issue sorted and out…

Being able to speak coherently to media is a bit more basic than that in a political leadership role.

Reality is though in the short term they're very much tied up, and it's silly expecting the msm to ignore that.

Maybe people actually like the idea…

We'll have had 3 more months to see if Shearer can cut it or not.

When he was appointed leader, Labour was pretty clear that he had a year to show he could…

They're quite probably conflicted. It's a thing to be conflicted over, after all, since the two represent quite…

If caucus can’t agree who to support as leader, then it will go to the party and the caucus to vote on. You can guarantee that the outcome with the vote weightings of the caucus 40%,…

But at the same time we're being told that's nothing to do…

Plus, all things come to those who wait, right? In that nothing's guaranteed, and if you're in politics for the long haul, you can play the long game. Sometime's it's very good to…

Having designs on leadership does not necessarily means he is undermining the party.

If however, the methods he uses to gain leadership do undermine the party then it is negative.

Am I right in guessing it actually wasn't?

Same. If only one of the Davids would change their name to Goliath, it would be so much easier to follow...

I don't have a dog in the fight and am struggling to make sense of this situation myself, but if members have changed the rules now after being ignored by caucus a year ago, isn't that…

Depends also. Discipline may come in many forms and to suggest it is just Cunliffe may be assuming unless you believe everything the likes of Trevett write because so much has come from her in the Herald over the weekend thus strengthening the…

Sure, but that Standard posts attacks Shearer for not turning the guns on Key, whilst at the same time making it perfectly clear that…

I thought whips were meant to be about internal discipline, giving stern remonstration, pulling rank and kudos to keep the young loose cannons in line. I guess when the whip is 34 years old, though, it doesn't work so well, lecturing…

the 'whip' role was bound to go there eventually

And we saw where their approach got the left over the past few years. Led by some of those backing not Cunliffe but Shearer, I'd note.

I agree. facing a vote…

I really don't…

I genuinely have no particularly strong views, although that's starting to change.

It seems to me if…

All these rational arguments have been eclipsed by the conflict with Cunliffe who – like it or not – is able to articulate Labour’s positions clearly and forcefully in a way that Shearer usually struggles to match.…

Thanks Stephen. such a logical response and informative. See,…

Along those lines, this Standard post may be of interest.

It all feels so Rupert Murdoch Foxy style, and Gower probably aspires to be just like Duncan Garner. I jus want the fax man! Give me some real info about the conference. I…

You're putting a pretty naive…

I hate what he said. less than 24 hours after the party has made clear its desire for a proper democratic process involving them on leadership issues Hipkins comes out and demands to know which way everyone will vote (because whats good enough for…

Besides which, writing off NZF when they're anywhere near a threshold (which might be lowering soon) is crazy. Hate him or...…

He wasn't always like that. I remember a, perhaps younger and less jaded, Gower that helped me understand what was happening in parliament. I don't know if it…

But isn't that a sort of bullying?

I don't get it: Cunliffe has said Shearer will get his vote if there is vote on the issue of leadership in the next couple…

As you note, there's something to be desired from the pack. But I don't think I've ever seen a story of his which wasn't about shoehorning an issue or event into a…

Currently, voters get chased when they move house, or in regular update campaigns. So once in the system, people tend to stay in it, but at the start, it can take a few years to get…

Are you sure?

That seems to be driven far more by a desire to…

Dunno. TVNZ wrote that, not me. I would've assumed he was going to caucus to get caucus' support.

I'm more thinking of the related threats to discipline and expel. So, they're going to have a vote in February, but they're going to punish and intimidate people so they get…

Members of the Party? Shearer wants caucus support to take this to the membership?

Peter Dunne and John Banks have 100% support from their respective caucuses :-)

And now TVNZ has updated with this:

Labour leader David Shearer has summoned an urgent caucus meeting for tomorrow to seek endorsement from members of the party.

The move follows an…

As we get closer to the election, and the possibility of a Lab/Green + government becomes a possibility, the more any perception of the governing party at war…

I found this chilling. Would you expand on it, please? Can you explain what you mean?

Yes, but they would also have to vote in strong numbers for that to happen. Currently young people don't vote in great numbers, hence why there aren't many youth friendly policies

I'm not suggesting there shouldn't have been a focus on it…

And yet, through all of that, Labour's steadily risen and National has steadily fallen in the polls. It just happens to be a slow, steady move,…

But suddenly, it's an outrage ("Stalinism," according to Idiot/Savant; "caucus exacting swift revenge on the party membership," says Gio). Curiously, this doesn't…

There was at least one occasion where…

Time destroys the speculation of men, but it confirms nature.- Cicero

I'm not sure. All but a small number of the MPs being hounded to pledge their undying souls to Shearer have refused, because the idea that it's…

He must be aware of how this would play in the msm, and therefore the implications of the Will I, won't I' stuff?
I'm sure it's all true that the vote and the membership having…

The last Colmar Brunton Poll had NZF at 4.9%. With n=856 for the party vote question, this poll alone gives NZF a ~46% chance of making it into Parliament.

Can you flesh that out? What sort of maneuvering did you see or hear about?

It appears that people have realised that 6-point-whatever percent of the party vote doesn't give Winston that much more parliamentary influence personally but, rather, brings in a whole lot of other people as well. The "But I didn't…

That's what came through on the wires too.

ETA: Highpoint of the weekend for me? Meeting the excellent Mr Judd. (Also lots of other things, but it really was great to meet and talk to Stephen.)

Would only be true if the caucus reflected the wider electorate or even the half or so who might conceivably vote Labour. I’m not convinced that’s the…

That was my thought watching…

They're still the group you have to lead on a daily basis.

Would only be true if the caucus reflected the wider electorate or even the half or so who might conceivably vote Labour. I'm not convinced that's the case.

Me…

Yes! But caveat that by saying "in the long run". There are surely times when you get the scoop. I just don't see it this time.

I have no doubt that…