Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: Be careful what you wish for

izogi

Wed, 16 Nov 2016 12:00:14 +1300

Replacing Scalia with another hard liner is a given, but if two more of the elderly liberal-leaning judges are succeeded by conservative appointees under Trump.. that would make the Court a conservative, regressive institution for decades.

Maybe it's a cultural thing, but I still really struggle to get my head…

Zach Bagnall

Tue, 15 Nov 2016 17:58:05 +1300

Trying not to think about the Supreme Court appointments. The case that made same-sex marriage legal across the US was a 5-4 decision. Replacing Scalia with another hard liner is a given, but if two more of the elderly liberal-leaning judges are succeeded by conservative appointees under Trump.. that would…

David Hood

Sun, 13 Nov 2016 12:49:46 +1300

I could, in theory, see Trump picking a fight with Congress, claiming that the Washington Elite are stopping him from implementing his awesome plans. Because his time is Republicans (if somewhat fringe) I don't know if that will actually happen.

But, tactically, it would give Trump someone to blame for…

simon g

Sat, 12 Nov 2016 23:04:20 +1300

I can think we can safely assume that Republicans in Congress always knew he was bullshitting about many of his promises: there won't be a wall or a special prosecutor for Hillary. The swing voters have been pocketed, the win delivered, and he won't be running in 2020, so it…

Russell Brown

Sat, 12 Nov 2016 21:36:54 +1300

It is a bit more complicated than that- at the moment Trump doesn’t have a plan, and what plan happens is done by congress with Presidential signify.

To be fair, he did promise to immediately repeal it. Which would be bizarrely stupid, but there you go.

David Hood

Sat, 12 Nov 2016 21:32:24 +1300

Trump just announced he won’t repeal Obamacare, but will only amend it.

It is a bit more complicated than that- at the moment Trump doesn't have a plan, and what plan happens is done by congress with Presidential signify.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/gop-obamacare-rift-231272

nzlemming

Sat, 12 Nov 2016 21:18:28 +1300

Trump just announced he won't repeal Obamacare, but will only amend it. There goes Senate Republican support...

Alan Perrott

Fri, 11 Nov 2016 10:06:52 +1300

that Cracked piece was quite the wake up – in a same but different line, there's also Jonathan Pie...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

Farmer Green

Fri, 11 Nov 2016 08:05:18 +1300

I wouldn’t recommend reading too far into that.
Don't pull your punches.
"A country designed to resist tyranny has now embraced it. A constitution designed to prevent democracy taking over everything has now succumbed to it. A country once defined by self-government has openly, clearly, enthusiastically delivered its fate into…

andin

Fri, 11 Nov 2016 07:25:12 +1300

These people are actually suffering social problems
That has been obvious for at least 4 decades now, but politicians and social problems dont mix well. Funny that, when it should be them who put their hand up when its happening and try to do something.
The same goes for most…

Farmer Green

Fri, 11 Nov 2016 06:50:36 +1300

And the winner is :-
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/and-winner-2016-election-weed

Joe Wylie

Fri, 11 Nov 2016 00:22:10 +1300

People are apparently being encouraged under Obamacare into third trimester abortions. So now you know.

As we've long known, it was international PR firm Hill & Knowlton who concocted the Kuwaiti incubators story. As I'd been doing a little job for them re. the then upcoming Auckland Commonwealth Games when the…

Rich Lock

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 23:44:13 +1300

Gary Younge on point

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/electing-donald-trump-democracy-us-politics?CMP=fb_gu

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 23:16:09 +1300

I read Cracked semi-regularly. As an aside, I find it really flipping bizarre that some of the best stories and analysis I’ve read in the last couple of years are coming from a self-proclaimed ‘dick jokes’ comedy website.

Indeed. This isn't the first time.

izogi

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 22:15:41 +1300

(technically elections are optional, if it was state law that the state legislator appointed them, then that is what that state could do)

Well that would be a fascinating adjustment to the election process.

Hilary Stace

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 22:04:36 +1300

Implications for disabled people, particularly the repeal of Obama Care.
http://www.vox.com/first-person/2016/11/9/13576712/trump-disability-policy-affordable-care-act

By the way, I have been puzzled about the enthusiasm of Trump supporters for repealing Obamacare, which is enabling millions more poorer Americans to access health care, as well as disability support. Today I learned why in an exchange…

Rich Lock

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 21:42:31 +1300

Crude election turnout pie chart

Rich Lock

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 21:38:31 +1300

By the executive editor of Cracked

I read Cracked semi-regularly. As an aside, I find it really flipping bizarre that some of the best stories and analysis I've read in the last couple of years are coming from a self-proclaimed 'dick jokes' comedy website.

Sacha

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 21:35:50 +1300

Implications in hard real words.

Tom Johnson

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 21:32:02 +1300

Anxious Syria. Trump policy is a Russian US squeeze, sheeeet.

Tom Johnson

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 20:52:08 +1300

yep, anxiety is huge, and everywhere

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 20:31:37 +1300

How Half of America Lost Its F**cking Mind

By the executive editor of Cracked, who grew up in what is now Trump country.

It paints a picture that dovetails perfectly with what the Gallup survey found – and earns my sympathy to a far greater degree than any of the…

Amanda Wreckonwith

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 19:32:36 +1300

Nothing to be done about it but garden: the fig tree is figging.
Me too. Potting up māhoe and kānuka all morning followed by an afternoon tidying up the flower borders and earthing up the spuds. Just gotta tend that garden!

What a sunny summer sky! What a day! What…

Tom Johnson

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 19:23:53 +1300

Being a bit of a fan boy of democracy its also a massive point that America is now being lead by the politics of the minority. The electoral college is fundamentally a system which fails basic democratic ideology and like a prerequisite in maths it fails as an instrument of…

Tony Meyer

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 19:05:27 +1300

It makes what happened look much more like a return to the mean as Obama leaves the stage than a Trump surge.

I’m not so sure of this. If you go back to 1972 as a starting point (somewhat arbitrary because it suits my narrative, sure), then you can see…

Tony Meyer

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 18:52:22 +1300

Here's a longer term version of the popular vote for anyone interested. (Source archives.gov, other than 2016, and I had to copy over data, so it's possible I made transcription errors).

andin

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 18:46:01 +1300

two steps forward, one step back blip
this dance step is getting awfully repetitive And really doesnt go anywhere, except round and round the dance floor. And if your the male leading, its that way. But for the other parties, its two steps backward

I just had a look at…

David Hood

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 18:25:36 +1300

Would it require much constitutional change in the USA for the Federal Government to take control of running its own national elections, or at least setting and enforcing stricter standards?

Yes. It would take massive constitutional change, you need a constitutional amendment. The power to choose the members of the…

Andrew Voerman

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 18:20:20 +1300

For the life of me, I don't know why Obama didn't proceed with the Supreme Court appointment. He had time. What a disaster.

Wasn't his choice, was it? Senate controls whether or not to give him a hearing, and the Republicans decided they wouldn't in an election year.

izogi

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 17:19:09 +1300

People not voting is "good", in the eyes of many who are supposedly charged with enabling the election Depending on the jurisdiction, there are obstacles to voting threat we would not tolerate – or perhaps we would

Would it require much constitutional change in the USA for the Federal Government…

simon g

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 17:08:21 +1300

Again, discussing turnout without reference to local factors does not tell us much. In New Zealand a turnout of 50% means people sitting in draughty primary schools twiddling their thumbs while waiting for the locals to take a few seconds out of their day. We practically drag voters in off…

Jason Kemp

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 16:00:51 +1300

Hi Greg,
10m fewer voters?
On the bar chart version I found the difference between this election and 2012 looks to be around 6m less votes – so a huge decline. This time ( 59,915,938 votes) don't know actual number of 2012 but looks close to 66m.

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 15:50:14 +1300

Exit poll data visualised by NY Times shows which groups voted for Trump.

That's fascinating – especially the minorities graphic. Demonstrates that Hispanics have not historically gone hugely Democratic. That's a more recent trend. Again, I'm left thinking was a remarkable candidate Obama has been. He didn't quite create a…

Sacha

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 15:01:34 +1300

there's still potential he won't follow through

he has.

Jason Kemp

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:59:56 +1300

This graph tells part of the story – by @yanagiz but I spotted it in the tweet linked below. Literally 3m+ Dem voters didn't actually vote depending on which election you look at.

a Clinton collapse

Looks like people have so little faith in the system that they…

Sacha

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:55:13 +1300

Exit poll data visualised by NY Times shows which groups voted for Trump.

izogi

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:27:03 +1300

Be careful what you wish for, indeed. I suppose this is going to be just one of a long string of changes.

EDIT: Actually on a second look this link is from late September, so I guess there's still potential he won't follow through.

**[[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/|Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to…

Rosemary McDonald

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:05:00 +1300

...couldn’t be arsed.

A friend was sitting next to one the the handful of US sciencetypes at a conference dinner last night at a NZ venue.

The tablemate was a staunch Republican, who couldn't in all conscience, bring himself to vote Trump.
Hillary no option a she is (for many…

Gareth

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:02:11 +1300

Well, to an extent me too – but the bigger point that China will relish a US led by Trump stands, because the two countries are (more or less) inextricably linked. As the Brexiteers are finding out for the UK and EU...

keeaa

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:46:37 +1300

States that passed voting restrictions saw decreased turnout, flipped to Trump

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/states-new-voting-restrictions-flip-trump-article-1.2866395?cid=bitly

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:43:33 +1300

History in the making and the recording and keeping thereof...
At a tangent to the current discussion, but of interest to all who want history to be kept in a meaningful way.
Archives New Zealand has extended the closing day for submissions on its:
Archives 2057 Discussion Document
Archives New…

Hans Versluys

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:29:17 +1300

Re: the presidential vote graph, Kerry got 3m fewer votes than GWB in 2004. It's not that clear on that graph.

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:27:02 +1300

One place is Apple: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/02/apple-cash-mountain-grows

Mike O'Connell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:21:22 +1300

The Simpsons predicted President Trump 16 years ago as ‘a warning to America it was going insane'''. In an episode called Bart to The Future, the Simpsons predicted (16 years ago) 'the tycoon would become leader of the free world'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hzRnwLTMfM

Grant Taylor

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:09:03 +1300

their unease with immigrants was cultural rather than economic
I wonder if the xenophobia extends to highly educated people (a proxy for the 'elite')? "White college graduates favored Trump by 4 points this year, a stark contrast to whites without college degrees, who preferred Trump by 39 points."

Paul Campbell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:05:33 +1300

I’m a currently very depressed American who is (bizarrely) looking like a bit of a genius for living overseas for the past 19 years (14 here in NZ). I have no plans to return there.

My (american) partner's reaction this morning was "we don't ever have to go back do…

Alfie

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:58:53 +1300

What was the overall turnout %?

The turnout rate was 55.6% – meaning 44.4% of eligible US voters couldn’t be arsed.

The Elections Project site is down at the moment so this info comes via Vox.

Rob Stowell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:58:16 +1300

Krugman’s article has the important caveat that we’re in a period of substantial excess savings.
I’m curious where these savings are coming from. Is it mostly the ‘1%’ looking for places to park their loot? Oil barons? Russian oligarchs? Baby-boomer pension funds?
Because most western governments are borrowing, and most…

Aidan

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:52:41 +1300

Krugman's article has the important caveat that we're in a period of substantial excess savings. If that situation were to change then it might be different. Not much sign of that though.

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:51:39 +1300

The idea that the Chinese can just bang on the door and demand their cash back is naive and wrong.
Thanks, I'm getting a free education here...

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:49:14 +1300

Aidan: Correct. There is a secondary market for the debt, so it gets sold for whatever price it'll get (and hence the buyer gets a better yield: yield = coupon/price). If secondary market yields rise then sure, the US will need to either pay a higher coupon on new debt,…

peter mclennan

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:34:48 +1300

Just "Not my leader" is fine.

Aidan

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:29:52 +1300

The U.S. debt to China is $1.185 trillion, as of August 2016

That's we call a hell of a bargaining chip.

Nope. If you don't believe me ...

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/10/08/the-china-debt-fizzle/

Aidan

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:26:15 +1300

I find it passing strange that (only slightly radical) left agendas are totally out of the question and electoral poison, but seriously radical right wing nonsense like this is fine and dandy.

The Democrats shot themselves (and the rest of us) in the foot with their bland neo-liberal managerialism. Sounds…

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:24:43 +1300

Are they as surprised as we are?

I've seen some reports suggesting they are.

Greg Akehurst

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:16:27 +1300

Russell, does that imply that around 10 million fewer voters actually voted? What was the overall turnout %? Also, how did Trump and his advisers know that the electorate would respond in the way it did, that white women would vote in such numbers for him, when everyone else appears…

David Hood

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:14:30 +1300

The atlantic had a good article on measuring the effects of voter suppression

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting/506963/

Joe Boden

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:08:50 +1300

I'm a currently very depressed American who is (bizarrely) looking like a bit of a genius for living overseas for the past 19 years (14 here in NZ). I have no plans to return there.

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 12:08:20 +1300

I've added this graph to the main main post because it's so interesting. It makes what happened look much more like a return to the mean as Obama leaves the stage than a Trump surge.

Rich Lock

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:58:54 +1300

I've been reading a few accounts of Trump voters explaning why they voted for him. One of the strongest through-themes is the economy/jobs/american dream/etc.

I can't help thinking these people are in for a really, really, nasty shock. How that plays out is anybody's guess.

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:46:13 +1300

Before inauguration, Trump faces a class action and a suit from the New York AG over the Trump University fraud, plus a state investigation of his foundation.

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:20:27 +1300

Pew has a take on the poll problem:

One likely culprit is what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. This occurs when certain kinds of people systematically do not respond to surveys despite equal opportunity outreach to all parts of the electorate. We know that some groups – including the less…

Rob Stowell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:12:51 +1300

That's we call a hell of a bargaining chip.
You can't bargain with a chimp. Stiffing creditors is what Trump does best. Also, one consequence of the election is likely to be a fall in the value of the US$ vs the renminbi. China is likely to lose money but…

Joe Wylie

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:09:21 +1300

And they’d quite like the renminbi to be the default global currency too.

They're all tooled up and ready.

Gareth

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:08:05 +1300

The U.S. debt to China is $1.185 trillion, as of August 2016

That's we call a hell of a bargaining chip.

TracyMac

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 11:06:55 +1300

For the life of me, I don't know why Obama didn't proceed with the Supreme Court appointment. He had time. What a disaster.

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:56:14 +1300

If Trump takes the Isolationist road – he can just plead a typo in his slogan!
'Make America Greta Again'

Garbo that is – "I just want to be alone..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvHqUnRzh0s

Rob Stowell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:54:27 +1300

“not the leader of my free world”
I’d go with that one. Self-made ignoramus and not the leader of my free world.
These are good times for verbal invective. The Scots got off to a great start but now the shitgibbon is president, the rest of the world is catching…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:52:13 +1300

China

Perhaps China will want the money the US owes it back?
US Economy. The U.S. debt to China is $1.185 trillion, as of August 2016. That's 30% of the $3.948 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19 trillion debt is…

Hebe

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:49:20 +1300

Mine also. Thanks for the optimism.

Russell: thanks for your coherent thoughts. I slept well because I have consciously distanced myself from this race. Nothing to be done about it but garden: the fig tree is figging.

simon g

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:32:49 +1300

The New York Times has a quick summary here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/opinion/the-voters-abandoned-by-the-court.html

We see those long queues around the block on TV, and we wonder. There's a background to that: our election commission is non-partisan and wants more people to vote. The USA is different.

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:29:01 +1300

Some day soon, some learned journal will explain the effect of the weakened Voting Rights Act on the 2016 election

Quite. I didn't have anything to go on there, but we might find out some nasty things.

simon g

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:27:36 +1300

Some day soon, some learned journal will explain the effect of the weakened Voting Rights Act on the 2016 election, It will be retweeted a bit and discussed in places like this by people better informed than me – and it will make no headlines at all. Which is a…

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:26:49 +1300

If Trump does go full on protectionist on trade, what price China stepping in to act as the centrepiece of future multilateral trade agreements?

Oh, absolutely. And they’d quite like the renminbi to be the default global currency too.

I’m not sure the cheerleaders realise the extent to which this…

Russell Brown

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:24:58 +1300

It didn't really fit into the post, but I woke up at 2.30am, remembered that Trump had won and couldn't sleep for another two hours. It appeared from social media that I wasn't alone.

Gareth

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:24:53 +1300

The Paris Agreement should survive, because by the time Trump rescinds the US ratification (which requires 12 months notice), enough other countries should have signed up to stay over the 55% of global emissions threshold required by the PA despite the loss of the US's 15%(ish). But it's early days…

Paul Campbell

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:14:15 +1300

I can't decide – is it:

"not my leader of the free world"

or is it:

"not the leader of my free world"

I'm sort of leaning to the 2nd one

Public Address

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:14:15 +1300

Discussion from blog post.