Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: A call from Curia

George Darroch

Mon, 22 Sept 2014 11:09:53 +1200

Not a push poll. Stop saying it is.

Rob Stowell

Mon, 22 Sept 2014 10:38:09 +1200

my answer phone yielded a pre-recorded call from JK 48 hours before the election.
That's a US tactic too. Must check the answer phone (we often leave it a week or so ...)

Euan Mason

Mon, 22 Sept 2014 04:43:18 +1200

Bias must be a major problem when some people don't respond. It would be interesting to know how pollsters deal with this.

BTW, my answer phone yielded a pre-recorded call from JK 48 hours before the election.

Jack Harrison

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 20:44:09 +1200

Push polling is an american success story. Push polling probably needs to be regulated.It's not very democratic.

tussock

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 16:32:29 +1200

If Curia rings you up wanting info you just have to say No.
Dude, if you want to game the system, there's a lot cleverer things to say than "No". Just imagine being a voter that the centrist National voter would not like, and get them to chase your vote.

Rob Stowell

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 14:09:31 +1200

The thing that strikes me about this private polling is you freely give your time but there's no public benefit. All the benefit goes to national.
Given the number of times 'strong stable government' came up in the closing stages it polled really well. It'd be fascinating to parse JK's…

Joe Wylie

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 12:16:53 +1200

his pollster Farrah

Oreally?

mpledger

Sun, 21 Sept 2014 11:57:35 +1200

John Key gushed thanks to his pollster Farrah for all his work – it may have been DPF's work but it was based on our information – we can't give it to them. If Curia rings you up wanting info you just have to say No. If you want the…

Sacha

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 16:40:28 +1200

in absence of a word from Russell I've deleted just in case, sorry

Suzanne McNamara

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 15:00:56 +1200

oops, hope that post is not against the rules :-)

Paul Williams

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 14:54:23 +1200

Treasure what you’ve got in NZ.

Agreed, the Australian electoral experience specifies how far boosters must stay away from polling booths, but they're free to hand out 'how to vote' cards outside that modest distance and frequently have to be asked to back off.

Chris Waugh

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 10:52:20 +1200

Self censorship. Finest kind.

No, responsibility. The law is clear and whether you agree with it or not, it's there for a good reason. Not that hard to respect it, is it?

Self censorship is when you're negotiating a vague, grey area knowing that if you cross an ill-defined line…

Russell Brown

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 10:18:56 +1200

Thanks Craig. I've already had to delete one comment this morning — so, folks, please don't post anything that could be seen to influence any other person's voting intentions. The rules are harsh:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00555/media-activity-on-election-day.htm

Bart Janssen

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 07:38:03 +1200

enlightened

Hey! Who are you calling enlightened?

Craig Ranapia

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 01:03:37 +1200

Self censorship. Finest kind.

More like I'm sure Russell has had more than enough reasons to be pissed in my general direction over the years, without my risking landing him in a tiresome correspondence with the Electoral wallahs.

Trevor Nicholls

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 00:42:52 +1200

Self censorship. Finest kind.

To be legal and paraphrase the electoral commission:
I voted a couple of days ago.
<== there's a picture of my owl.

Craig Ranapia

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 00:35:28 +1200

[Redacted — posted after midnight and not sure that this isn't verboten under election rules]

Kyle Matthews

Sat, 20 Sept 2014 00:12:43 +1200

+1. Never thought about this before, but polling a few days out from the election must be bogus.

Unless it's an assessment of their campaign, which they're running before the election because the election results and what politicians do tomorrow muddy people's opinions. Next election is only three years away…

Kumara Republic

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 23:39:22 +1200

That's a debate for another time, but please be very careful what you wish for because those regulators aren't necessarily terribly nice enlightened people like us.

IIRC, the Leveson Inquiry in the UK recommended the formation of an independent super-regulator which could be thought of as a Press Council/BSA/OMSA with…

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 23:21:23 +1200

Strong, guaranteed investment in public broadcasting and firmer regulation of ‘journalism’ is needed.

That's a debate for another time, but please be very careful what you wish for because those regulators aren't necessarily terribly nice enlightened people like us.

martinb

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 23:11:10 +1200

Could be looking ahead to coalition negotiations and potential leadership changes? Sounding out about Peters and English.

Sacha

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 22:54:30 +1200

The financial disparities at this election really are stark, and perhaps, more than anything, they explain the left's difficulties in getting cut-through.

Combined with mass media motivated by corporate advertising and dividends, yes. Strong, guaranteed investment in public broadcasting and firmer regulation of 'journalism' is needed.

Sacha

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 22:51:09 +1200

I'd be more likely to screen out journos & bloggers than to have them in.

bet Farrar's thinking of that about now ...

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 22:42:55 +1200

There appears to be a simple way for Labour or the Greens to reduce the ability for polling companies to conduct polls that the media can rely upon to further whatever agenda they are pushing. If they were to publicly instruct their voter base to ALWAYS say that they will…

Gavin White

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 22:14:22 +1200

Two problems with that.
1) Curia doesn't have a 200 line call facility – they're a pretty small agency.
2) Even with 200 interviewers, there's no way in hell you could do 50,000 surveys in an evening, especially not of the length that Russell posted. That's easily a 10 minuter…

william blake

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 22:04:27 +1200

I got a recorded voice message from my new and unwelcome MP the rt hon PM. Unfortunately it did not give me the opportunity to leave him a message.

Raymond A Francis

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 17:25:49 +1200

The law does need looking at with the growth of advance voting
I have seen photos of Mana people in all their regalia standing outside polling places
I am not sure if that or polls would change voters minds but as the law is so strict on polling day changes…

nzlemming

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 16:17:40 +1200

If you were being an amoral marketing genius, like, say, David Farrar.

I object to the word "genius" in that sentence.

tussock

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 15:21:54 +1200

It's not a push poll --- it would be a complete waste to do a push poll that lasted more than 30 seconds.
Unless people are suspicious and you're trying to reassure them. Let's see. ~200 call staff from what I've seen of the joints, take an interactive dialogue line…

Dismal Soyanz

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 15:20:54 +1200

But were you able to award negative points? Or in the case of Colin Craig perhaps imaginary numbers would have helped.

=SQRT(VALUE(Colin))

Stephen Judd

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 15:07:11 +1200

To reinforce what Keir said. This isn't push polling. Push polls are short and blanket everyone to do their work. They're basically untenable for cost reasons in NZ.

Yes the questions are leading, but they're testing how well party messaging is working.

I don't see anything nefarious in this. It…

Amanda Wreckonwith

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:56:58 +1200

The recent rise in right wing funded polling companies and their use of push polling concerns me.
There appears to be a simple way for Labour or the Greens to reduce the ability for polling companies to conduct polls that the media can rely upon to further whatever agenda they…

Steve Curtis

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:33:53 +1200

If they are running their polling questions this close to election, its likely to find out how various messages have worked for various demographics.

Keir Leslie

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:27:47 +1200

I don't think many countries ban internal polling, just the publication of those polls.

Bart Janssen

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:24:38 +1200

Never thought about this before, but polling a few days out from the election must be bogus.

It is banned this close to the election in a number of countries.

Bart Janssen

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:23:14 +1200

as if some parties actually believe what they're doing is wrong.

Yet when I've responded to questions that way "Actually, I think all of them *think* they're doing what's right"

For me that is one of the things I find most unpleasant about some politicians because no I don't believe…

Keir Leslie

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:20:34 +1200

It's not a push poll --- it would be a complete waste to do a push poll that lasted more than 30 seconds.

The point is to produce product that can be fed to the National party campaign committee. In lots of ways polling can be compared to sigint, actually,…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:15:27 +1200

I was able to award half-points.

But were you able to award negative points? Or in the case of Colin Craig perhaps imaginary numbers would have helped.

mpledger

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 14:09:16 +1200

"but how do you come up with estimates of variance (i.e. margin of error)?"

In polls they don't care about the variance. The margin of error that is quoted is a fiction where the pollster pretend they have a simple random sample, every estimate is 0.5 and the only source…

Howard Edwards

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:46:13 +1200

Grumpollie grumpollie.wordpress.com/2014/03/13/rob-salmonds-post-on-cell-phone-polling/ has a post about this – the relevant bit (which appears to apply to both cellphones and landlines) is this:

For those interested, RDD (random digit sampling) works by randomly generating numbers within number banks, then connection testing them, and then re-sampling the connected numbers.

Self-selecting samples are…

Sam M

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:22:23 +1200

Already stated above but I wouldn't be willing to tell someone who has asked for me by name how I am intending to vote. Not in the current climate anyway.

Angela Hart

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:20:33 +1200

Given the polls have been open for general voting for the last two weeks, allowing any polling, let alone push polling, is an appalling lapse of regulation.

If we are going to open the polls two weeks early for general voting, then we need to forbid the conduction and publishing…

Tom Semmens

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:20:05 +1200

Balancing my annoyance at saying "conduction" instead of "conducting" is the fact that "conduction" is a very good word indeed.

Steve Curtis

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:10:54 +1200

Code of Practice from ( Market) Research Association NZ.
Article 1 – Basic principles
Market research shall be legal, honest, truthful and objective and be carried out in accordance with appropriate scientific principles.
.
.
.
Market research shall be clearly distinguished and separated from non-research activities including any commercial…

Katharine Moody

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 13:10:30 +1200

Given the polls have been open for general voting for the last two weeks, allowing any polling, let alone push polling, is an appalling lapse of regulation. If we are going to open the polls two weeks early for general voting, then we need to forbid the conduction and publishing…

Geoff Lealand

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:54:20 +1200

That is a very good argument. There are also vested interests ie the proliferation of market research firms running polls and raking in $$$. One reliable source told me that the average cost of commissioning a national poll is $25,000. Sort of akin to real estate agents pushing up the…

Tom Semmens

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:35:55 +1200

Should be illegal, probably is, but Farrar would explain how they were really interested a couple days out from the election in changing all their messaging. Which is to say, he'd just lie and the police wouldn't care anyway.

Given the polls have been open for general voting for the…

mpledger

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:32:14 +1200

Polls should be anonymous to protect your privacy.

Never do a "poll" if they ask for you by name.

For all you know they could have saved your information to use at a later date in some kind of smear campaign or to use against you when applying for a…

Geoff Lealand

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:29:44 +1200

As there does not appear to be any general ‘directory’ of mobile numbers, I wonder how they can be randomly selected. As for online responses, this cannot be regarding as polling as it would be self-selecting.

Dismal Soyanz

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:25:10 +1200

Especially as there is now a vacancy for a "covert attack blogger".

Richard Aston

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:19:43 +1200

It's an old fashioned push poll

Far out ! Didn't even know these existed , thanks Tussock.
My paranoia is right up now

Hey and great work Russell in recording and publishing this

Karen Adams

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 12:08:31 +1200

Weren't you uncomfortable giving your politicial opinions given the recent disclosure of hate posting from those who disagree with the government? It wasn't like it was an anonymous poll.

If it were me I might suspect that they were attempting to find out political leanings of those in the media…

Paul Campbell

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:58:15 +1200

If it's a push poll it's subtle, when I returned to NZ 9ish years ago, and was new on the local electoral roll I got the most blatant National push poll that I eventually hung up on

tussock

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:56:21 +1200

Here's one for the Greens, totally unofficial, just me, off the top of my head.

* Which party do you most feel has principles they'll stick to?
* Which party do you most feel would never abuse the processes of government for petty political gain?
* Cares about the future…

Jon Briggs

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:53:29 +1200

+1. Never thought about this before, but polling a few days out from the election must be bogus.

tussock

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:39:29 +1200

It's an old fashioned push poll, Russel. It's not about finding out what you want, it's disguised as a poll to get around the electoral advertising laws and to tell people to vote National.

Seriously, every single one of those 20 questions at the end are specifically designed to get…

nzlemming

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:35:25 +1200

I kept wanting to discuss each question, which of course isn’t what the poll is there for.

Yeah, I had the same experience a couple of months ago. You realize, of course, that Farrar will now come after you for "stealing" his intellectual property :-D

MxDEJ

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:33:35 +1200

Presumably electoral roll + phone book would be enough to match your first name to your phone number?

Stephen R

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:33:30 +1200

Leading questions like this are always weird, as if some parties actually believe what they're doing is wrong.

Yet when I've responded to questions that way "Actually, I think all of them *think* they're doing what's right" I get weird reactions, like the caller can't quite wrap their head around…

Grant McDougall

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:23:11 +1200

Which party believes in doing what’s right for New Zealand?

Leading questions like this are always weird, as if some parties actually believe what they're doing is wrong.

I mean, you can argue that some parties' policies are better or worse, but the parties themselves always genuinely believe what they're…

James Littlewood*

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:20:28 +1200

Such an obsequious line of enquiry. But explains the PM's total inability (and lack of interest) as an orator.

DPF

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:18:03 +1200

If the poll is on behalf of a political party, they supply names and numbers, which are cross-matched from the electoral roll to the white pages. Sometimes they may have numbers from other sources such as if you have supplied it on a survey.

I'm glad the caller was polite…

Russell Brown

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:17:32 +1200

Do Curia carry out mobile and online polling by chance?

I don't think so.

Idiot Savant

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:17:24 +1200

I'd be interested to know how they associated my name and my (VOIP) landline number

A Privacy Act request would probably tell you that.

Kumara Republic

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:15:58 +1200

Do Curia carry out mobile and online polling by chance, like Roy Morgan and Horizon?

Public Address

Fri, 19 Sept 2014 11:15:58 +1200

Discussion from blog post.