Public Address | Cafe | Field Theory: Our greatest fear

Ross Mason

Sun, 25 Oct 2015 06:07:19 +1300

I'm happy I have a life to watch games like todays. :-)

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 21:51:47 +1300

David Scott's model and my model seem to have been particularly disagreeing over Argentina in the past couple of weeks.

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 21:04:13 +1300

some stats- I am one up as of the quarter finals in terms of wins. But really, because of the variation on game day a better measure would closeness of points difference. If Argentina win by 1 then I will have picked the win but David Scott would be closer…

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 20:37:50 +1300

I don't- with only five matches to draw from I'm just taking a broad view- arguably though from the graphs you could claim that with Pocock on the field Australia have been underperforming slightly, and with him off they have been underperforming noticeably. Given the closeness of the Australia/ Argentina…

Some Stats

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 20:33:11 +1300

So how are you going compared to David Scott's predictions on Stats Chat?

Sam M

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 18:15:25 +1300

How do you account for Pocock vs no Pocock?

Euan Mason

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 13:07:32 +1300

Intercept=2.222e-15 and P=1 looks pretty convincing :).

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 12:14:28 +1300

One thing I didn't look at, so don't know if it actually matters, was starting from the logical principle that a team that played itself should tie (or a least win as often as it loses). So a zero difference in ranks/ zero difference in score should, in a "seems…

Euan Mason

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 12:00:48 +1300

Thanks. I have 3.0. I downloaded the file manually and adjusted the line numbers in your code. The residuals looked a bit larger around sdiff=0, and I thought there might be some heteroscedasticity for a model of absolute values, but Breusch-Pagan says "no":

bptest(I(abs(sdiff)) ~ I(abs(rdiff)),data=scores)

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 11:40:48 +1300

librcurl came in in R 3.2 as a cross platform way of getting https urls, so I would guess you are using a slightly older one. If that is the case, for the version you are using method = "internal" will work with Windows, method = "curl" should work with…

Euan Mason

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 11:21:41 +1300

David,

Interesting analysis and code. I tried it but got:

> u <- “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rugby_Rankings”
> if(!(file.exists(“rugby.html”))){
+ download.file(u, destfile="rugby.html”, method = “libcurl”)
+ }
Error in match.arg(method, c(“auto”, “internal”, “wget”, “curl”, “lynx”)) :
‘arg’ should be one of “auto”, “internal”, “wget”, “curl”, “lynx”
>

What's "libcurl"?
Am I missing a library?

David Hood

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 10:20:32 +1300

For the semis I am saying NZ by 18 over SA, and Argentina by 10 over Australia,

and if I show my working https://thoughtfulbloke.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/rugby-world-cup-regression/

kiwiwolf

Tue, 20 Oct 2015 08:54:49 +1300

You should seriously consider getting a life.

Ross Mason

Sun, 18 Oct 2015 14:13:09 +1300

Who won?

The All Blacks of course. I have to say that game was a stunner. The earlier one had moments of thrills as well. What TMO??? I don’t think i saw it once!! And that was with Mr Barnes too!!

This world cup is the first time (I think…

David Hood

Sun, 18 Oct 2015 12:31:05 +1300

I am current first equal in the work "pick the results" contest at work at the moment. World rugby rank explains 80% of the scoring results between teams. But you can then factor in how much particular teams are under or overpreforming relative to their rank in the tournament. I…

Public Address

Sun, 18 Oct 2015 12:31:05 +1300

Discussion from blog post.