Busytown: The shakes
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Hey - I'm Italian. About 80% of my brain is wired to think about sex and the remaining 20%, insurance scams.
Whereas me, being English, is 80% insurance scams and 20% about sex, other people's of course.
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On the $2 billion figure: first appeared in an NZPA story filed by Maggie Tait, with this direct quote from EQC chief exec Ian Simpson. Available here on NZH.
Could be interpreted to mean EQC cost for residential plus commercial and any other, or overall total. Interpret to suit yourself.
"It's very early to start estimating the numbers so far," he said.
"At a guess, and it is just a guess so far, we are looking at ...around 100,000 claims in total from the event and the cost will be easily into the hundreds of millions of dollars just for EQC for the residential property... It could reach between one and two billion dollars."
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@ Joe Wylie: Is that pic of 'mud volcano' whats meant meant by 'liquifaction' .. or something less technical?
Yeah, those media shots of Bob Parker with his sleeves rolled up while accompanying John Key in the CBD look like great PR to me. I'm really straining myself trying to imagine Mr Anderton in similar attire, lol.
Dare I say it.. no more aftershocks since that 5 pointer
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@ Joe Wylie: Is that pic of 'mud volcano' whats meant meant by 'liquifaction' .. or something less technical?
I'd imagine so, though not in the Robert Herrick usage of the word, i.e
Whenas in silks my Julia goes,
Then, then, methinks, how sweetly flows
That liquefaction of her clothes.They seem to have shot up all over close to the river, as though driven by ground water under extreme pressure. Sizes range from about as big as a dinner plate to a couple of metres wide. There are a number of alternative theories, including that they're an omen of Elvis's second coming, but you know what Christchurch is like.
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Hey Joe, any news on Ian?
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He's a tough one, I'm sure he'll surface.
Um, I hope so.
The power must be back on in his neck of the woods by now. -
He's a tough one, I'm sure he'll surface.
Knowing Ian, he's probably still busy helping other people.
Also, I've done a little media post here:
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Liquefaction - what happens when you push one of your feet around in the wet sand on a beach and as a consequence the previously solid-feeling sand "liquefies", your foot sinks into it and water is squeezed out to the surface.
Scaled up - vigorously shake wet sandy sediment (maybe sandy layers buried within muddy silt) and the pore-water between the sand grains is pressurised tending to hold the grains apart, tending to "liquefy" the sediment. Sediment compacts a little, sand grains settle and repack closer together, the pore water is squeezed out/upwards under pressure, tending to concentrate into particular channels on the way so carrying muddy sand in suspension and squirting it out onto the surface as sand volcanoes.
Meanwhile any foundation strength of buildings thereon ...
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I know you can't bolt everything down (esp books) but I wouldn't be surprised if there's some serious revision of how to rattle-proof a library after this. The liability!
One of my first jobs in the mid 90s was to reshelve books at the Victoria University Library after all the top shelves had been cleared off. I seem to recall vaguely that the shelves were cleared to install bracing between the stacks in case of earthquakes.
Still wouldn't want to be anywhere near Vic in a shake, though.
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On the $2 billion figure: first appeared in an NZPA story filed by Maggie Tait, with this direct quote from EQC chief exec Ian Simpson.
At this point, isn't the only honest answer "who the hell knows"? The problem with the 24 second news cycle is that "I don't know" seems to be unacceptable.
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"who the hell knows"
I don't disagree. If Simpson hadn't said something, someone else would have done so though.
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Liquefaction - what happens when you push one of your feet around in the wet sand on a beach and as a consequence the previously solid-feeling sand "liquefies", your foot sinks into it and water is squeezed out to the surface . . . Meanwhile any foundation strength of buildings thereon ...
Thanks Chris, most illuminating. Around here you often get a sort of reverberating wobble through the ground when a bus goes by. Although it happened under the cover of darkness it would have been an amazing sight, all those jets of high-pressure slurry spurting high into the air.
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Have just watched both Prime, 3 and One news. Well, flicking through One and 3 really.
Harping on but am still very perplexed with the lack of info re crapping, Yes, John, your interview with the Medical Officer of Health stated the obvious about the (shocking!!) closure of public (!) buildiings AND what if the Bank over the road DID open and yes, a wee bit about water.
But we now have mixing of water and sewage and it seems to me that that is a more important issue than which f*&king taxpayer is going to get a free holiday!
This will be the biggie. Health.
So people, if I were you, I would sort out a good bucket of disinfectant and a plastic tank with a tap for rinsing your hands off. Maybe even the alcohol based hand disinfectants would be good. Sort out the hole in the ground to piss in and a bag with pet litter in to crap in. But keep the kids and your hands clean!
Wear your undies two days, shirts two days and stay warm and dry. Pull out your stock of games and books. It's going to be a while.
I would have a guess that Wednesday they will keep things closed a bit longer. It is just the 3 day period CD is trying to tide you all over.
Probably preaching to the converted by now maybe....
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And
21 births in the last 24 hours!!
The most in Chch Hospital ever in 24 hours. Amazing what a bit of stress does. I wonder who triggers it? Mum or bubs? Is it a case of quick get this birth over so that I can run away? Or "Get me outta here NOW!!!"
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Added to above-
collect rainwater. Dont use soap/disinfectant anywhere near your drinking water supplies. Use the seat from your loo (almost all of them come off easily) on top of your makeshift dunny (place a couple of thinnish short planks between it and the bucket/bin/whatever) - not everyone is young/ish and can squat!)
Make sure that your 1stAid kit (of course you have one! ?) includes rehydration mix packs (babies and wee kids can go down *really quickly* if they get the shits) - alternatively check online for the formula (I'll post it anyway).
There are several sewage-bourne diseases that spread extremely quickly, and kill equally quickly. Cholera anyone?
And - all gods & little fishes help Canterbury if the aquifers have been further contaminated by human shit as well-
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Wear your undies two days, shirts two days
That's a bit posh! ;) But you got it. Think camping.
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I'd imagine that the CHCH Women's stats are largely due to women who would have birthed at Lincoln, Burwood or home going where there was water and power instead.
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Ur, go to "Oral Rehydrations Solutions" on the net(first up on Google): the thing is lowering at me in my mailbox but I cant find a way to shift it into here...
(sobs briefly before going back to sucking leetle babybird bones...)
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In that same initial tv3 interview, Key said the $2b estimate came from a Treasury model that had been developed for the Gisborne quake.
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Ur, go to "Oral Rehydrations Solutions" on the net(first up on Google): the thing is lowering at me in my mailbox but I cant find a way to shift it into here...
(sobs briefly before going back to sucking leetle babybird bones...)
Here you go dollface.;)
Islander advises... -
Yo! for Te Sof!
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We pretty much all aim to please my friend. Community spirit annat.
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Key said the $2b estimate came from a Treasury model that had been developed for the Gisborne quake.
Translated, I think that will mean Treasury (and some geotechnical people perhaps too) came up with a model and used the cost of the Gisborne earthquake as a data point to calibrate it. I remain sceptical.
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Having just suggested what people do re dunnys, I decided to have a quick check on the CD page. It is the one with the bulletins and helpful hints.
Lots about water boiling. One comment about "checking the toilets are working".
And little else.
I still stand by my thinking that sewage will be a biggie and am quite surprised by the lack of information.
It seems to me that they know the sewage system is broken, then any feed to it is only going to exacerbtate the problem surely. The only advantage of pouring your precious water down the plug hole is to find leaks. Yes, pour water but surely not the human waste!
All I can suggest is put something up Folks. It might save a bit of hospital time.
Oh dear again. The bottom of the page has a link to "Get Thru". The page for Preparedness. Then on THAT page is a link to "Information on the Chch earthquake". Anyone want to guess where that one goes to??
Yep. Circular Motions.
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And searching in the search box for "toilet" does not bring anything useful up.
Have I missed something?
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