Busytown by Jolisa Gracewood

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Busytown: The shakes

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  • Sacha,

    I remain sceptical

    "Treasury forecast" is seldom a reassuring phrase given their record

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Phil Lyth,

    Apologies to those who find talk of EQC reserves to be mind-numbingly soporific.

    Sacha, thanks. I would have expected that Ian Simpson would have known about and mentioned a Treasury model (giving a $2b cost) if it actually existed. Am I being diplomatic enough?

    I have had problems getting the Key / Campbell video to replay reliably. Nevertheless, I think

    Key said the $2b estimate came from a mid-90s model
    And that he said EQC has $6b 'cash' and $15b all-up

    (Figures rounded to the nearest $100 million. Wow, I like doing that)

    EQC annual report said that at 30 June 09, they had reserves of $5.6b. NZ Govt securities $3.75b, NZ bank securities $0.25b, global equities $1.6b. Noted that global equities had been hit by global financial crisis. Fair enough.

    Whether you count all that, including stocks, as cash is arguable.

    NZ Govt financial statements for 11 months to 31 May (full year to 30 June due soon) recorded EQC at $6.1b - so some recovery of global equities.

    EQC annual report said their total capacity was $8.1b before calling on Crown garantee. So where does $15b come from???

    Wellington • Since Apr 2009 • 458 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Key said the $2b estimate came from a mid-90s model
    And that he said EQC has $6b 'cash' and $15b all-up

    Quite possible - I didn't go back to check. Seemed the info wasn't being repeated elsewhere. Ta for digging further.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Carol Stewart,

    Back to liquefaction again.. this was a major cause of building damage in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area. It was a similar magnitude to the Chch earthquake, struck in the early evening (5pm) and killed 63 people. They were killed mostly by falling debris and a section of a motorway viaduct collapsing.

    Wellington • Since Jul 2008 • 828 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    One of my first jobs in the mid 90s was to reshelve books at the Victoria University Library after all the top shelves had been cleared off. I seem to recall vaguely that the shelves were cleared to install bracing between the stacks in case of earthquakes.

    Wonder if we crossed paths. And to be fair, I don't know if you can possible create bracing that won't collapse under just the right stress. Still gave me the shits, though. Think securing the large (and extremely heavy) bookcases is going to be the wee DIY project for next (OK, some) weekend.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Carol Stewart,

    Yes, we have started viewing our surroundings differently too. The place I would really not want to be in a big Weillington earthquake would be in a Pak and Save-type supermarket with all those heavy pallets stacked up high. I think most supermarkets now have systems of webbing to hold the pallets in place now, but I still wonder how effecitve they would be.
    My preferred places to be in a big Wellington earthquake would be a) at Te Papa, with its fabulous base isolators, b) at home in bed, or c) somewhere near the cheese fridge at Moore Wilsons..

    Wellington • Since Jul 2008 • 828 posts Report Reply

  • Islander,

    I have a lot of self-built bookshelves firmly attached to my walls. The books have stayed where they were meant to stay in every earth-quake
    (most major a 6.9) since they were built...I'll happily send out the very simply construction plans to anyone who wants then-

    there is *nothing* hefty in my bedroom near my bed above head-height. Just a humble mosquito net...


    please refer back to my comment "Not if sweetheart- when."

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Yes, we have started viewing our surroundings differently too. The place I would really not want to be in a big Weillington earthquake would be in a Pak and Save-type supermarket with all those heavy pallets stacked up high.

    So I'm not the only person who roams around Pak 'n' Save, picking out (and avoiding) the least dignified spot to be crushed to death.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Deborah,

    I didn't shop in Pak 'n' Save for exactly that reason - just too damn scary. Especially with small children in tow.

    New Lynn • Since Nov 2006 • 1447 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    So I'm not the only person who roams around Pak 'n' Save, picking out (and avoiding) the least dignified spot to be crushed to death.

    The cleaning aisle, surely. Nothing could be less dignified than being crushed by baby food and nappies.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2105 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Cross-posted from t'other thread:

    YAY!

    Ian Daziel has just replied by text. They've lost a couple of chimneys, have books in disarray (I dread to think!) but are otherwise good.

    Also, for those who know him, Blair Parkes from the L.E.D.s and his family are fine (they live in a low-lying street in New Brighton, so I'd been a bit worried about flooding).

    Ian will be along here later this morning.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22848 posts Report Reply

  • Robert Urquhart,

    Well I've just been up on the roof and the chimney is a bit more serious than I thought - the neighbours have a good view and report it's been getting slowly worse with aftershocks. On the plus side, while there's a little tile damage it doesn't look like any of it will result in leaks. Will still organise a professional in to check everything out later in the week (anyone have a recommendation?)

    Christchurch • Since Mar 2009 • 163 posts Report Reply

  • Isabel Hitchings,

    On reflection I'm quite glad our chimneys sheared off at roof level. Many of our neighbours spent Saturday demolishing chimneys that had become unstable which looked like miserable job.

    Christchurch • Since Jul 2007 • 719 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    somewhere near the cheese fridge at Moore Wilsons

    what a way to go

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • 3410,

    Seriously, does any Christchurch PASer not have a damaged chimney?

    Based on the small sample of reports here so far, I'm guessing that the bill will outstrip $2b.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    nothing like the image of the 'Man-in-charge-of-a-crisis' to boost the ratings

    Quite.

    Canterbury talkback host Mike Yardley yesterday told the Herald that Mr Parker had proven himself to be an effective leader in a time of crisis, as would be expected.

    "Certainly, looking at some of those scenes when he was escorting John Key around the city centre, it was very reminiscent of Rudy Giuliani," who led the city of New York after the 9/11 terror attacks.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca,

    YAY!
    Ian Daziel has just replied by text.

    Good to hear.I'd be lost without my daily pun.

    Seriously, does any Christchurch PASer not have a damaged chimney?

    Seems that way. My family have got off lightly so far, but I suspect my Uncle will be none too happy after the photos I just saw of all his miniatures strewn broken across the floor and we are talking large numbers here. Actually, it looks like his bar was hit the worst (well all of the house is in disarray.)but the wine rack did the business of saving many bottles, which is a good thing right?

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    On reflection I'm quite glad our chimneys sheared off at roof level. Many of our neighbours spent Saturday demolishing chimneys that had become unstable which looked like miserable job.

    And the hospital was reporting a flow of injuries yesterday amongst people trying to do that kind of work for themselves. Not that they'd have any choice but to try.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22848 posts Report Reply

  • Sam F,

    This morning's Herald online poll:

    What do you think of Civil Defence's reaction to the Christchurch earthquake?

    - Really quick
    - Too slow

    All bases nicely covered there...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1609 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Regarding the salt/sugar/water solution I can attest to that - I used that over the last 3 weeks extensively as gastro went right through the entire family. It was pretty much the only thing I could handle on one of the days - water isn't quite as good if you already have a horrid taste in your mouth, and the salt really does make it absorb faster. Coincidentally, the salt actually tastes good when you're dehydrated.

    It's also quite a good sports drink, it's not practically much different to the ones you buy at about 1/30th of the cost. Useful if you're working hard repairing your house or something.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    All bases nicely covered there...

    Yes, "how the fsck would I know" seems a more truthful option - but not so satisfyingly black and white.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Emma Hart,

    Seriously, does any Christchurch PASer not have a damaged chimney?

    Me. Seriously, we have no damage at all. The rubbish trucks came round this morning just as they usually would. What you're seeing on TV is the absolute worst. There are a few suburbs like ours where you could walk around and see no sign it had happened. We don't have to go far, just down to the old brick buildings on Ferry Road, but still. If we hadn't been able to help out I'd have something akin to survivor guilt.

    Christchurch • Since Nov 2006 • 4651 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    And the civil defence response seems to have been really impressive.

    My brother moved into his new house on Thursday, had to be completely out of the old one on Friday for the new owners, and left for the beehive bunker shortly after 5am on Saturday morning. He's now on 12 hours on, 12 hours off shifts with another guy, probably all week.

    My parents took the weekend to help his wife and three kids under 6 sort out the shambles of a new house so that the kids could be fed and put to bed through the chaos.

    I think their big error was reporting for hours yesterday that Civil Defence and police had decided to "evacuate" the CBD.

    TVNZ were reporting that as well. Fair enough, that's what the Minister said on live TV before flying down to Chch, you'd hope he would know what he was talking about.

    Re the Avon being high and dry. Bit of a bugger when the slope to the sea is rather slight and when a bit gets heaved up one discovers that the laws of physics in fact do work in Christchruch too: Water does not flow up hills!!

    That will be the crazy part of future Chch - a waterway will have changed course and suddenly become a lake or something. Council will have to figure out if it's worth spending a million dollars returning it to what it was or just leaving it as it now is and adjusting everything around it.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Carol Stewart,

    This Christchurch civil defence report from 2004 has a liquefaction hazard map on p18.

    Wellington • Since Jul 2008 • 828 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    It's also quite a good sports drink, it's not practically much different to the ones you buy at about 1/30th of the cost. Useful if you're working hard repairing your house or something.

    Mmm, nothing like electrolytes on a hot day.

    This Christchurch civil defence report from 2004 has a liquefaction hazard map on p18.

    About, oh, six weeks ago I was looking at my Environmental Geohazards notes from 2005, including that particular report, and thinking "Oh, well, it's not like I'll ever want to refer to these again. Into the recycling with them."

    Given this, and what else I threw out, the next thing we can expect is an invasion of eleventh-century Norman knights bent on reclaiming the Holy Land. Well, that, or some really efficient oil-eating bacteria.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2105 posts Report Reply

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