Re: The dead cat bounce. Yes, both Trump and Clinton will get a 3 or 4 point surge in the week after their respective conventions. But with the unprecedentedly long 100 plus days from conventions to election day, the bounces are irrelevant.
And re the Hispanic vote. My gut and conversations tell me that Trump is being very smart in driving a wedge between the legal immigrants, who may vote. And the illegals who can't. Brexit taught us that people are far more self interested in the booth than they are when talking to pollsters. Plenty of commentators have pointed out that many legal Hispanic immigrants may actually warm to Trump's promise to keep more immigrants out. Thus reducing the pressure for jobs and housing on the ones already here.
Pair that with the macho/catholic resistance to being led by a woman. And you might just find that the Hispanic vote - even if it doesn't turn out for Trump - won't necessarily get behind his opponent either.
And yes, of course I'd rather be wrong.
Meanwhile Trump turns his guns on the ten or eleven states that actually will decide the election, keeps up his peculiar impersonation of pugnacious statesmanship as seen in his - scarily focused and, admit it, pretty effective speech - and hoovers up a few thousand of those so called Reagan-democrats in the purple states.
Four months to go. The Koch chequebook is now probably out. Murdoch's taken charge of Fox, and Clinton is limping from the contrived email scandal. If I had the money to bet, I'd still pick Hillary. But by fuck it's close right now.