Posts by mpledger

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  • Hard News: I tried Sativex: it was no…,

    I don't think you are really meant to start using sativex at same dosage a regular user would. IIIRC a new user is meant to ramp up over several days and try to use the least amount necessary.

    Cannabis is really weird because it can push some people one way and other poeple another e.g. most people feel mellow but some people can have really scary anxiety attacks. I suspect it's due to people's natural brain chemistry and the ratios of CBD and THC.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Hard News: I tried Sativex: it was no…,

    You did actually prove their point about diversion.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Speaker: Ann's story: helping doctors…,

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Hard News: Is the Ministry of Health…,

    Wikipedia says that "Cannabidiol is not scheduled by the Convention on Psychotropic Substances" so it's pretty hard to see why NZ's legislation should include it either - given NZ's legislation was meant to action that convention (and the other UN drug convention).

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Legal Beagle: Three Strikes five years…,

    There was a report in the paper recently about how the number of drink driving convictions (or maybe arrests) has gone down. So, yay!

    But I happen to know that there has been less resources put into policing in this area. So basically there is no way of knowing whether the decrease is due to people drink driving less or it's the same rate as before but that people are not being caught.

    Getting a further strike only counts if the person is caught. If the police are putting more resources into, shall we say burglary, then a person with a first strike may continue to commit crime but may not be caught.

    And that leads us to the fight clubs in prisons and Serco turning a blind eye to it (at the least). How many strikes were not counted because Serco didn't want their inmates arrested/hospitalised because it would have screwed up their statistics.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Polity: Catch you later,

    Part of the explanation could be that lesser crimes are quicker to adjudicate for parole.

    And lesser sentences are more likely to have only a one or two -shot go at parole whereas a person convicted of murder, who is given, 20 years with 10 years non-parole could have up to 10 goes in front of the parole board.

    e.g.
    If you suppose that those with a conviction will get parolled rather than serve the full time then...
    the murderer above has a 1/10 chance of getting parole on facing the judge but it takes 120 minutes to go through all his jail and conviction history, classes undertaken, previous parole hearings, victim impact report, support plan for his release, etc.
    Whereas, a young, first-time thief has a 1/2 chance of getting parole on facing the judge, his parents are in the courtroom and it takes 30 minutes to go through the history and support plan.

    So all the low chance, slow parole hearings resolve towards the middle/end of a period.

    ~~~~~~~~~

    And if the circled 0.63 (roughly) chance is the average probability of parole, it would mean that the majority of paroles are resolved at the start of the day or period. It would mean that the parole hearings that resolve later are very different to the typical parole hearing.

    ~~~~~~~~~
    I'm assuming this is American data so I wouldn't be surprised if some screwy things happen in courts and with judges...
    https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/430/very-tough-love
    https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/599/seriously?act=2

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Hard News: The fake news problem,

    I went looking on youtube for the footage of the tsunami waves on Lyall Bay beach after last weeks earthquake and and a while lot of videos popped up saying they were from that earthquake but were from the Japanese or other earthquakes. People know those search terms are going to be news so they put up any old thing so that they can make money off the advertising.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Hard News: The fake news problem, in reply to Farmer Green,

    Fake news and trolls spouting incoherent nonsense. We once hoped for better things from the internet.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Polity: Four thoughts on polling in…,

    How do robopolls select for people in the house or do they just take whoever answers the phone?

    I'm guessing they take whoever answers, which in this case is ok since voter turnout and phone responders are biased in the same direction - white, female and older.

    It would be pretty time consuming way to poll in Maori electorates.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • Polity: Behavioural economics and Hekia Parata, in reply to mark taslov,

    People subvert the statistics when their income or job is on the line which means the whole thing becomes pointless.

    Look at the burglary statistics in South Auckland as an example.

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

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