Up Front by Emma Hart

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Up Front: What's the Big Idea?

116 Responses

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  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    Same problem with Labour, the list position favours the "experienced MPs" aka old ones.

    In fairness, most of the Clark-era caucus has stepped down from Parliament. Still, there should be a balance between fresh talent and long experience in any case.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5278 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    big ideas continuing to gain traction despite an almost universally hostile press.
    It's not the moment for careful triangulation. Voters want - need - a clear alternative.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2037 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    Well, Labour's vote is growing anyway. That article is more about the Tories basically pissing away some votes, by alienating the elderly. The big surprise in the article was that the average house price in the UK is only $215,000 pounds. Way more affordable than NZ.

    It’s not the moment for careful triangulation.

    Can I ask a silly question? What does "triangulation" mean in the context of politics? I understand it to be usually used to find things, like heights or transmitter locations.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10469 posts Report Reply

  • Carol Stewart, in reply to BenWilson,

    In social science, it simply means 'using multiple data sources or methods'. Here's a nice discussion.

    Wellington • Since Jul 2008 • 793 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Carol Stewart,

    OK, it doesn't really sound like something you'd dispense with. At the very least you could use it to gain more confidence that your big idea was really gaining traction. Or it could work the other way, showing that it actually is not. Either way, it's making a picture based on information about what we observe, rather than what we want to observe.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10469 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to BenWilson,

    Can I ask a silly question? What does “triangulation” mean in the context of politics?

    I'm probably mis-using the term. But this is kind've what I meant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangulation_(politics)

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2037 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    OK, I thought so. I don't think you're misusing it, it's just a confusing term when used this way, which is hardly surprising considering that it was coined by a spin doctor. Essentially you're using it to mean "moving to the middle"? AKA Centrism, and maybe Third Wayism?

    So many different ways to reinvent the two dimensional analysis that has dominated Anglo political discourse since always. TBH, I don't think either agreeing with or opposing this strategy makes that much sense. Neither is a big idea. They're old ideas, and the frame the entire discourse as taking place along the single dimension between the two main parties.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10469 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to BenWilson,

    the average house price in the UK is only £215,000 pounds. Way more affordable than NZ.

    Not really. The UK's median wage is around £27,000, give or take. The typical upper range of what a mortgage lender will provide, for a couple, both of whom are earning the median wage, is between £135K and £189K, which still means a hefty deposit (probably from the bank of mum and dad).

    And the usual caveats apply. The average house price in London is between £500K (1-2 bed flat), and £630K (terraced house). In Brighton, it's £390K; in Cambridge, it's £500K; in Milton Keynes, it's £273K; in Bristol, it's £287K (with the exception of Bristol, these are all cities generally in the SE of England). If you go somewhere like Hull (north), then sure, it's £119K. But there's a reason for that (no-one wants to live there, and the median wage is considerably lower than the overall UK median wage, at 19.5K).

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2700 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Rich Lock,

    If you go somewhere like Hull (north), then sure, it's £119K. But there's a reason for that (no-one wants to live there, and the median wage is considerably lower than the overall UK median wage, at 19.5K).

    For the same reasons Detroit and St Louis are affordable: industry has left town and the unemployment & crime rates are high.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5278 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rich Lock,

    The important caveat I see is that the house types are very different, that 1-2 bedroom flats are actually like a thing, unlike here. We don't really do the terraced house thing either. An "average house" in NZ is literally a house, freestanding, probably with a small amount of land. So to compare apples with apples we probably should only look at what those cost in the UK.

    But obviously the existence of all those smaller units in the UK is a good thing for accommodation of people who don't want (or can't afford) the quarter acre, and we really don't have that here. I think that impacts on "affordability". But yes, it's certainly affording something that is actually different.

    The median wage seems almost identical to here (oh, how times have changed!), and lending ratios seems similar, as is the near certainty of young people requiring deposit gifts from some source.

    Yet still, I can't help but feel that if the average "house" in the UK is around $400,000 NZD and in NZ it's $500,000 that's a pretty straightforward measure of NZ prices being inflated beyond UK values. If you're an existing house owner in NZ you could probably afford to trade down to living in the UK, with 100k leftover from your previous budgeting. That is a real turnaround. Obviously things are not that simple, my understanding is that buying property in the UK (actually pretty much everywhere else in the world apart from Australia and the USA) is an absolute nightmare, even if you're a citizen, let alone if you are not.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10469 posts Report Reply

  • Moz, in reply to BenWilson,

    if the average "house" in the UK is around $400,000 NZD and in NZ it's $500,000 that's a pretty straightforward measure of NZ prices being inflated beyond UK values.

    And in the UK they think they're in a housing bubble, despite higher incomes and lower house prices. Hmm.

    http://www.thebubblebubble.com/uk-housing-bubble/

    Sydney, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 997 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Moz,

    To be fair, The Bubble Bubble guy thinks everything is a bubble at the moment, hence his name. He might be right, but until it all bursts, we can't be sure.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10469 posts Report Reply

  • Moz, in reply to BenWilson,

    There's also a bunch of reports of a 2015 article saying "if we get this level of house price inflation we'll be in a bubble" but prices have gone up faster than forecast.

    I'm sitting on a house that I own barely 20% of and hoping prices don't drop.

    Sydney, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 997 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    To be fair, The Bubble Bubble guy thinks everything is a bubble at the moment, hence his name. He might be right, but until it all bursts, we can't be sure.

    Also take into account the fact he's a Ron/Rand Paul-ite libertarian who thinks the US Federal Reserve should be scrapped.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5278 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to BenWilson,

    Nah, for a resident, it's pretty straightforward, or at least it was in the 90s.

    Solicitors and real estate agents charge less (much less for agents). You need the solicitor to check the title as it isn't a Torrens title system - but NZ solicitors don't charge less because they haven't got to delve through 17th century copyhold parchments. The bank will demand to sell you building insurance and probably life assurance, which they don't do here. Apart from that, it's just a few forms to fill. They didn't seem to nose much into circumstances either - just wanted to see bank statements and payslips and applied a 3x earnings limit.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5508 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    Big ideas in the UK - and some stupid mis-steps from May - mean a Tory lead of about 20 points when the election was announced is now down to 5 - and almost two weeks to go.
    Maybe Sanders might just have run away with the US election?

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2037 posts Report Reply

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