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Speaker: God is in the numbers

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  • WH,

    Or don't kick it out

    Yeah, I might rephrase that. In the years after our 50-21 win in 2003, the Australians stopped kicking the ball to our back three so much and tried to put the ball out in our 22, backing themselves to disrupt our lineout.

    With a 34% defensive lineout win rate during the current tournament, that would still seem to be a pretty good strategy. Thats 1/3 against the throw compared to the AB's 1/5. I think its Grant Nisbett who often says that the AB's should contest lineouts more. Stats from the early rounds can be misleading, but they do tend to show areas of relative strength.

    Our front row is excellent, and due props for that, but I'd rather have an excellent lineout and an adequate scrum than the other way around.

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • Hadyn Green,

    Our front row is excellent, and due props for that

    Boom boom!

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    and there are also lots of stories about the "minnows roaring"

    Which also translates to a unified support for the underdog throughout the tournament. It’s been very evident in France too.

    Which is another reason why only those wearing Adidas will be cheering for the All Blacks in Cardiff.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Plus: the British bookies still seems confident in the All Blacks to win the tournament.

    That French team: They're going to play a conservative game against us, by shifting a 2nd-5 to fullback and playing a 21yo in his first season of international rugby at 1st-5, on the basis of his game against, um, Georgia. Exxxcellent ...

    The Aussies: Warmest thanks to the ARU's John O'Neill for that "everyone hates England" stuff. It's given the British press so much to work with they haven't had time to make up any old bollocks about the All Blacks ...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Our front row is excellent, and due props for that, but I'd rather have an excellent lineout and an adequate scrum than the other way around.

    Especially in this tournament, where scrum superiority doesn't appear to be bringing much benefit.

    Maybe it's time for Ali Williams to start stealing some throws like he used to.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    Oh, quit your whinging, it stopped sleeting.

    indeed. you can imagine my surprise to leave a windless wellington morning to arrive in hailstorm in chch.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    ndeed. you can imagine my surprise to leave a windless wellington morning to arrive in hailstorm in chch.

    We had three hailstorms yesterday. The one that hammered down on the marquee being used for the Triangle Stratos launch was a cracker.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Michael Fitzgerald,

    If we're touching on irony...

    Party pill millionaire Logan Millar has died at the age of 31
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10467762

    Since May 2007 • 631 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    That French team: They're going to play a conservative game against us, by shifting a 2nd-5 to fullback and playing a 21yo in his first season of international rugby at 1st-5, on the basis of his game against, um, Georgia. Exxxcellent ...

    I don't understand the French selection. Surely the only way they're going to beat is us a repeat of 1999 - brilliant, erratic French play, running it at us and disrupting our pattern. Playing like England, they'll never beat us, they All Blacks will defend too well from a structured game, and have too much attacking firepower to think we won't score back. Shouldn't Michelac ("erratic but dangerous") be the first five, and a fullback that will run it back?

    indeed. you can imagine my surprise to leave a windless wellington morning to arrive in hailstorm in chch.

    Flights were stuffed to Wellington yesterday morning because of wind worries. My 9 year old son, travelling as an unaccompanied minor to visit his grandparents and aunty and uncle almost got diverted to Palmy and put on a bus to Wellington. No stress there, honest!

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    i hear that things turned to custard after i left. someone said 40ft high walls of spray heading over the airport breakwater!

    nice here in nelson but.

    and... if the french selection is insane. c'est la vie.

    heh. stoopid french.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    We all remember the times that France have beaten us by spraying it around (Eden Park 1979, 1999 Semi, 2000 in Marseilles etc…)

    But think back to the Buck Shelford testicle game in Nantes 1986; it didn’t get past their #10 that day.

    Big call to try that against this All Black pack though; I expect we’re in for some dodgy stuff.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    The French play Northern hemisphere, A.K.A. Kick and chase. Its seems pretty clear that the Frogs lined up their backs and picked the seven who could punt the ball the greatest distance. That, together with picking a geriatic but technically good forward pack, should tell us what they are going to try and do - kick the ball as far down the field as they can and hope cobble together enough points from drop goals, penalties, and if they are lucky a turnover try (actually maybe not so lucky given the All Black error rate) to be in front at the finish. Its an admission they can't compete with the All Blacks in a mobile encounter. Remember, the French tried to play a la outrance in the spirit of Grand-Maison's in Lyon in 2006 and we stuffed them better than the Hun's in the Battle of the Frontiers, the following week they reverted to a kicking game and while we won it was only by 12 so now we will see if coach Petain and his his version of the Maginot line can stop the Black blitzkrieg.

    Our pack has been picked with an eye to dealing with any French shenannigans a la 1999 with Mssrs. Robinson and Oliver there to ensure we have sufficient trench fighting capability before we unleash the All Black fifteen man game. Muliana's selection is an admission that the selectors stuffed up perservering with Conrad Smith and Toeava and the idea of either of those two marking Sterling Mortlock clearly has been keeping Mr. Henry awake at night. Muliana will makr Mortlock if fit. And if he gets injured before the semi - I think that would make the Aussies favourites.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Getting.To.Excited.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Andy Milne,

    Personally, I'm feeling quite relaxed about this tournament. What I find most reassuring is that Messrs Henry, Hansen & Smith appear to have learned from the lessons of history, and won't repeat mistakes that have cost us dearly in previous years. For example

    1999: Our best fullback is switched to centre. We lose.

    2003: Our best fullback is switched to centre. We lose.

    2007: Our best fullback is switched to centre.

    So all you pessimists and naysayers can relax, safe in the knowledge that Henry, Hansen & Smith have everything figured out. We've got this one in the bag!

    Christchurch • Since Aug 2007 • 59 posts Report Reply

  • Hadyn Green,

    Except that Mils isn't our best fullback. Leon's numbers are much better.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • jeff constable,

    Argh! I've got to stop reading these bloody comments - you're making me nervous....

    Sydney, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 12 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    That’s a wind-up right Haydn??

    Of the players at the RWC, Mils is our best fullback, then Evans, followed by Howlett. Carter’s probably at #4.

    I’ll give you Calamity McDonald is next.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    I’ll give you Calamity McDonald is next.

    That's a bit harsh. McDonald isn't a massive linebreaker, but he's very reliable, defends very well, and has vision, and kicks well. Sets up his outside man when he hits the line. Very good under the high ball, and I think he hardly ever misses tackles when the other team gets through.

    I think Mils is better, but McDonald is pretty good and the current positions are the best option, as I don't think Smith or Toeava are up to the play at centre.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Rowe,

    Mils is our best fullback and our best centre! I like Evans but, like Mauger at 2nd 5, McDonald gives steadiness at fullback. At least they figured out he isn't a first five!

    Lake Roxburgh, Central Ot… • Since Nov 2006 • 574 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    I agree with Kyle's summary. McDonald is almost never out of position and kicks well. He doesn't pose as much of a threat in lose play himself but is just as good at putting people in space as Mils if not better. LegBreak's comment about Evans is interesting but; Evans has been my player of the tournament.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    I’d be so much more comfortable with Calamity Mac if he didn’t drop the ball so often.

    Not as often as Sivi does of course, but still..

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Howlett's playing the best football of his career. He's even breaking tackles. I'd be bloody surprised if he's not starting for the rest of the tournament ahead of one of Joe or Sivi.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    I'd be bloody surprised if he's not starting for the rest of the tournament ahead of one of Joe or Sivi.

    Assuming there is a "rest of the tournament" of course....

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Hosking,

    Hope some of those people who reckon NZers are "arrogant" about rugby are reading this.

    The jitteriness is palpable.

    South Roseneath • Since Nov 2006 • 830 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    I agree with Kyle's summary. McDonald is almost never out of position and kicks well. He doesn't pose as much of a threat in lose play himself but is just as good at putting people in space as Mils if not better.

    I think so. He returns the ball very well - he's not the guy who'll score your tries, but he will run straight and offload.

    I must say, it's a testament to Mils' class that none of us seem to be worrying about his ability to click into No.13 mode at a few days' notice.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

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