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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit

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  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Moz,

    The problem for Scotland is that leaving for the EU is not necessarily a useful choice, since they're almost certain to be forced to join the Euro - look at other peripheral states to see how well that works.

    Mark Blyth warns against exchanging the tender mercies of George Osbourne for Dr Schauble, and cautions Scotland to remember the example of Greece.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report

  • simon g,

    Leaving aside the EU/UK fallout (too much to say, and said better by others), one aspect of this closer to home is the contrast between much-maligned MMP and the apparent neatness of a referendum (which is often touted as the solution on the issue du jour). The two ends of the voting spectrum, from multiple options to Yes/No.

    The basic question for anyone who 'kicks against the pricks', railing against the elite (perceived or real) is "What will you do when you get the power?". And the difference between a serious opposition and an opportunist rabble-rouser is that the former will want to govern (i.e. to choose) whereas the latter would rather stay outside shouting at the walls.

    Under MMP, the "easy antis" (e.g it's all about the immigrants or the Mowrees) can channel their anger into a party like NZ First (others have had a go, but none so consistently). But then the vehicle gets into power - in coalition with National or Labour, as they were before, and may be again. So they have to do all the messy things like count, and compromise.

    Whereas a Brexit referendum dumps everything in the lap of the people who won - whether they wanted to win or not. All the messy stuff is theirs, and theirs alone. And let's not kid ourselves, the EU will be in no mood to make it easier for them. In short: made bed, lie in it.

    MMP is obviously flawed, but it is a much better instrument for making decisions, owning them and facing up to possible consequences. We've got that more right than the UK or Australia, I reckon.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Marc C,

    Pressing on...

    Unless there is some realisation that journalism comes with responsibilities, we will have more bad and unexpected decisions made in elections, leading to serious risks for local, regional and also global stability.

    ...and today NZME finds out what the public (and investors) think it is worth prior to the unholy merger with Fairfax - to make the beast with two backs (and no subs) - heck Fairfax journalists think villain is spelt 'villian' and that 'perpetuated' is the same as perpetrated...
    Heres hoping they can still spell Czech....

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/81477948/Listing-puts-price-on-NZME

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Moz, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Yeah, him! Thanks for that link. It's also on youtube if you're not so into failbook:

    Sydney, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 1233 posts Report

  • BenWilson,

    Since there is a power vacuum, it might be a good time to ask the Queen what she thinks. If there was ever a time for a constitutional monarchy, it would be when the democratic system suddenly collapses. This might be a moment in which the entire justification for her position could be made or broken. She is staring down the barrel of the end of her kingdom, and surely has something to say about it.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • simon g, in reply to BenWilson,

    We are faintly amused by the prospect of Balmoral in Scotland (her favourite home) finding itself no longer within her realm, while the somewhat less regal Balmoral in Auckland still is.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to BenWilson,

    Ummm ER...

    ...a good time to ask the Queen what she thinks.

    Those old German families (Saxe-Coburg and Gotha) have always looked to Europe to enhance their genial gene-pool - though Phil the Greek (a member of the House of Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Glücksburg, born into the Greek and Danish royal families) seems to be the last non-Brit / Euro to marry into the family business...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Lucy Telfar Barnard,

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 585 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Lucy Telfar Barnard,

    what the Queen actually does think

    mmm

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • linger, in reply to Sacha,

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1944 posts Report

  • Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to John Palethorpe,

    Thanks John for sharing your parents’ “leave” vote reasoning. I can’t believe that all 52% of leave voters were stupid and/or racist (and awful to see the racist element emboldened by the result), so helpful to get a sense of what was going through the heads of those for whom the vote to leave was an educated, rational position.

    In relation to those emboldened – living in the UK in 2012 I couldn’t understand the segment of the British population who complained so loudly about foreigners and migration, because the UK seemed so "white" to me. Only 13% of the UK population is overseas-born (in 2014), compared to 25% in NZ. “Visible” ethnic differences are similarly different – 13% “White” on the UK 2011 census, compared to 25% non-“European” in NZ.
    But maybe that’s the problem. Maybe the UK would be less racist if it were more ethnically diverse?

    Otherwise, oye. I’ve never felt so ashamed of my UK passport.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 585 posts Report

  • daleaway,

    Every disgruntled voter with a grievance saw the Brexit referendum as a harmless chance to stick two fingers up at the government. Protest with no danger of comeback.

    For some/most, it was all about immigration, and turning back the clock to the more British Britain of their youth. For others, it was an economic or class issue about the lack of jobs, affordable homes, prospects, and general trickledown being delivered by the UK government. For yet others, it was a sort of teenage "you're-not-the-boss-of-me" sulky fit about the spread of EU regulations generally, an argument expressed as "sovereignty concerns".

    Reminds one uncomfortably of the slogan on the side of Winston Peter's campaign bus : Send them a message. Well, the message was sent, and now the Brits have learned to be careful what they wish for.

    German-born Oliver Imhof, working in England, summed it up shrewdly:
    "Britons voted against their political establishment by saying no to the only thing that is protecting them from it."

    Since Jul 2007 • 198 posts Report

  • Dennis Frank,

    Yeah, that fella Mark Blythe gets it; an excellent concise analysis, thanks guys. Dunno if global trumpism has the legs to last the distance tho - unless it gets defined as more generic than the model deriving from such a flawed avatar.

    Any chance any of the political players & power blocs currently on the global stage will decide to advocate our common interests? Too hard, or too old-fashioned? Sectarianism is merely an unsatisfactory refuge for simple-minded leftists & rightists. Democracy was captured by elites long ago but usually they conduct the sham sufficiently well to sucker mainstreamers - they'd better get more smoke & mirrors into play asap...

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    How does that explain Labour voters voting Remain and Tories voting Leave?

    It transcends party politics. The UK Tories were visibly divided, and not just because former Bullingdon Club buddies David and Boris went on a collision course over the Brexit issue. By the same token, roughly a third of UK Labour supporters are believed to have voted Leave.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5446 posts Report

  • Jon Briggs,

    Another reason for voting Leave: Your first memory is of being in a bomb shelter listening to V2 rockets burble overhead, knowing that if the noise stops they are falling somewhere near you.

    Given this context I think it is reasonable to hold the position that the Germans had two goes at dominating Europe by force and they are now doing it via political means. [To be clear this is not my position!]

    Since Dec 2008 • 27 posts Report

  • James Littlewood*,

    Is it just me, or did I just see the same baby boomers who told their parents to piss off just do the same thing to their kids? Like Daleks, hard wired to destroy all signs of authority. Even as their own kids percolate into the new establishment.

    Where's the Generation Zero donation page? Oh, here it is.

    That image of reported racism tweets is chilling.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2008 • 410 posts Report

  • simon g,

    I'd say the memory of V2 rockets is a minimal influence compared to the memory of endless TV programmes re-inventing the WW2 experience for those who missed it.

    If a voter's experience of Europe is singing "Ten German Bombers" at the football, or watching Allo, Allo , then they might well be inclined to dislike a Germany that doesn't exist.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report

  • Rich of Observationz,

    I'd suggest that, since the vast majority in Labour and a large number of Conservative MPs (as well as the Lib Dems, who may return from obsolecense) oppose an exit, they force a General Election and campaign on a joint Remain ticket.

    Unlike a referendum, it takes maybe 36% of votes to elect a government - if a reasonable percentage of the Remain voters, plus a few regretful Leave voters, supported this ticket, they'd get back in with a mandate (as much as any FPP government has a mandate, but British voters are also to blame for that) to stop Brexit.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Paul Campbell, in reply to Jon Briggs,

    Another reason for voting Leave: Your first memory is of being in a bomb shelter listening to V2 rockets burble overhead, knowing that if the noise stops they are falling somewhere near you.

    I’m pretty sure that’s a good reason for a united Europe

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2623 posts Report

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Moz,

    Yeah, him! Thanks for that link.

    Full interview up this morning.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report

  • Rich of Observationz,

    The other alternative is that the forward looking and productive parts of the UK detach themselves. Scotland obviously, Northern Ireland ironically are headed for leaving.

    But London, also, has a clear majority to remain and could have be a fully sustainable future as a city-state within the EU – it would have the second highest GDP per capita, the 10th biggest economy and the 15th biggest population.

    (Not to mention that it would have a ready source of cheap, non-citizen labour from the rump of England to perform menial tasks. A bit like apartheid without the overt racism).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Lucy Telfar Barnard,

    Otherwise, oye. I’ve never felt so ashamed of my UK passport

    I'm wondering if I can get NZ elocution lessons so I don't sound stupid in public.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to BenWilson,

    Well, any attempt to intervene could well end in whichever fragments of the UK remained declaring themselves a republic, so I doubt she would. (Not to mention that the Battle of Bosworth Field pretty much established the monarchy's subordination to parliament, if not the people).

    Besides, if all else fails, she'll still be queen of NZ. We'd need to build palaces of they move down here though. Fuck knows how we'll afford that at current prices.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Russell Brown, in reply to James Littlewood*,

    That image of reported racism tweets is chilling.

    It's from a Facebook album which is growing alarmingly large.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report

  • Russell Brown, in reply to daleaway,

    Reminds one uncomfortably of the slogan on the side of Winston Peter’s campaign bus : Send them a message. Well, the message was sent, and now the Brits have learned to be careful what they wish for.

    Which is why the “Ha ha, death throes of neoliberalism” response annoys me.

    The immediate result will be a changing of the guard in government, with the most horrible and illiberal of the Tories moving into positions of power. It’s very much “be careful what you wish for”.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report

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