Hard News: Where are all the polls at?
228 Responses
First ←Older Page 1 … 5 6 7 8 9 10 Newer→ Last
-
TV3 Reid Research poll *6pm tonight* might show a new late swing**- stay tuned
-
John Farrell, in reply to
Nope.
-
Do we know if CB changed their "modelling"? I know they've said they didn't change their "sampling" before their last poll. But if they kept to the same electorate model then there really has been a big shift since the tax bullshit hit the fan, and Reid picked it up sooner than CB.
-
David Bulog, in reply to
If TV3 Reid Research Poll sampling is correct
What we are seeing is a new late swing to the minor parties -Greens up 2.2% and NZF up 1.1%
decline for National since last week poll -1.1% , slighter decline for Labour – 0.5%
Greens and NZF are getting some votes back from the major parties.
1.4% difference between National and Labour and Green. -
Differences of less than the margin of error should not be called a swing.
Basically, we won’t know the result until after Saturday (and that’s all that poll says). Time to stop speculating and start voting if you haven’t already done so. -
Politik say they have seen National's internal polling which indicate a 1% lead to the left bloc and softening of the National vote.
My bones tell me the National scare campaign worked right up until Bill English jumped the shark on the whole slaughter the dairy herd thing and the media started calling National's advertisments straight out lies.
I am going to make my call - A Labour-Green 62 seat win on the back of a late swing to Labour.
-
Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
I am going to make my call - A Labour-Green 62 seat win on the back of a late swing to Labour.
Here's hoping.
-
John Farrell, in reply to
Interesting, Tom. My pick - Labour/Greens 62 seats, National 56, Maori Party 2. No seats for anyone else.
-
Email Web
If the skewing effect on the polls since advance voting started is real, highly-motivated voters who are quick off the mark will already have been tallied prior to the polls closing tomorrow and the first media reports thereafter will be of their tally.
If they mostly want a change of govt we'll see evidence of a swing to Labour/Greens as these first counts are reported - but later in the evening it'll even up (due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow). If this effect happens, early electorate results may contradict recent polling to a surprising extent, but then things will even out later in the evening...
-
I'd say there's almost no chance of Labour/Greens having 62 on election night, and even L/G plus Maori Party is a long shot.
But the real concern is that there will be negotiations based on incomplete numbers, and specials will change the picture (i.e. give the only correct picture) after the narrative has been established. It could be the 2017 version of 2005 "the rural booths came in and National had won, only to be robbed by the big urban booths at midnight". Obviously it's idiotic to pretend that votes have different values depending on when they are counted, so ... thank goodness there are no idiots in our media, and they all totally understand MMP (*cough* Hosking ...).
On the plus side, the prospect of National celebrating a "win" and then specials taking away a seat or putting the Greens over 5% would be one to savour ...
-
steven crawford, in reply to
(due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow).
That’s me, and my vote is going to be desided by the flip of a coin, as it my right. A coin only has two sides. So that makes me an oscillating voter with a margin of error plus or minus 50 percent. But I might go for best of three if I don’t like the first result.
-
Alfie, in reply to
due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow
I wouldn't call myself a traditionalist and I was inclined to vote early. The reason I've held off voting until Saturday is because I like being able to drill down in the ElectionNZ site, right down to my local voting booth. For the last two elections it's been overwhelmingly Green with Labour 2nd and the Nats hardly count. That makes you feel pretty good about your neighbours.
Had I voted early I would be counted in one of the bigger voting places, rather than the nice little village where I live.
Two ticks Green.
-
Bernard Hickey reckons the polls might be wrong.
Currently, the two major published polls put National ahead of Labour by eight or nine percentage points, but those polls have assumed that turnout rates among the young will be the same as for previous elections.
...
If the young have voted at greater rates, that would mean the polls are likely to have underestimated the Labour and Green votes because they assume the same turnout rates for various demographics when they do their sampling and re-weighting of results. Polls have shown young voters are more likely to vote Labour and Green. -
izogi, in reply to
I'd have voted early but, after seeing how many are doing so and the discussions about outdated electoral laws, I've held off. It's occurred that this might be the final election where I get an opportunity to vote on a day when nobody's allowed to scream at me about how I should vote.
-
If it's possible to vote in person I usually do, but it's a bit of a hassle to get to the High Commission at present.
-
Kia ora koutou.
Just a reminder that the provisions of the Electoral Act are about to come into force, till 7pm tomorrow, so if you could please confine yourselves to electoral and poll geekery and no indulge in anything referring to the parties contesting the election, still less what you think of them, that would be much appreciated.
-
linger, in reply to
That’s not quite how it’s supposed to work. The previous day's advance votes are not tallied until 2pm on polling day – but the actual results are not scrutinized and therefore are not released until after close of polls. Special votes (including some proportion of the advance votes) take even longer to be assigned to their correct electorate – and may be decisive this time.
[Oh bugger, it’s already Saturday NZ time. Check: no party named, no recommendation made <=> post unproblematic I hope] -
steven crawford, in reply to
Just a reminder that the provisions of the Electoral Act are about to come into force, till 7pm tomorrow
Dont even prod it with a stick, Its definitely still breathing :-)
-
Dennis Frank, in reply to
Email Web
The previous day's advance votes are not tallied until 2pm on polling day – but the actual results are not scrutinized and therefore are not released until after close of polls.
Okay, but I was commenting on the basis of seeing a couple of political reporters telling us that the results from advance voting are likely to be reported soon after 7pm. One would think they'd have inside knowledge to justify that expectation.
Also, if I were running the process efficiently I'd expect my counting team to report their tallies at the end of each voting day of the advance voting period, so the tallies get regularly updated, so as to enable today's count to be expedited. I grant our civil service haven't become famous for having a culture of efficiency. Anyway, we'll see early evening if the advance voting tallies get reported promptly.
-
Absolutely not. As of 2pm today we will know (roughly) how many advance votes have been cast but we will not know anything about how they have been cast. Processing the advance votes does start early – but given the number, will not be completed before the final day’s votes are also in. Far more important than any perceived efficiency is ensuring no influence on the continuing voting process.
-
FletcherB, in reply to
Also, if I were running the process efficiently I’d expect my counting team to report their tallies at the end of each voting day
If you do that, the tallies could get leaked and influence people who haven't voted yet...
I don't like that idea... I don't even like the idea of countries with multiple time zones (Aus, USA, Canada) reporting results from earlier time zones before polls have closed in later ones...
-
Email
Some problems with Australia's postal yes/no 'referendum'...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/97163982/australias-samesex-marriage-survey-corrupted-another-haul-of-votes-dumped -
Joe Wylie, in reply to
Some problems with Australia's postal yes/no 'referendum'...
The unfailingly excellent David Rowe.
-
Email
Bugger!
(provisionally....) -
Email
Polling averages made it Winston's choice, almost certainly so, and late polls were pretty much on the spot for what he'd be looking at for a choice, give or take the specials (go go magic late enrolment swing!).
Well done the pollsters again. Good old math and sampling doing it's thing again, second-guessing the people who understand the math about as useful as betting against the met-service these days it seems.
538 says don't trust the polls just because they're right a couple times, because the margin of error is real and undecided voters really do swing hard very late, but yeah, they were right again, eh. :)
Post your response…
You may also create an account or retrieve your password.