Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Time to Vote

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  • Chris Waugh, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    Also: where’s the Green party vote?

    That. And Kelvin Davis has overtaken Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau, with his margin growing as the vote comes in?

    I'm worried.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 2401 posts Report Reply

  • bmk, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    Greens always underperform polls. Last election they ended up with 11% and I think that's where they will end up again after specials.

    In terms of Labour the problem is simply Cunliffe. I knew so many people who said they simply couldn't bring themselves to vote for him. Under Shearer, as incoherent as he could be, Labour was always above 30% and often in the mid-30s. Sadly I'd been dreading this result and while hoping it wouldn't eventuate kind of knowing it would - I just hope Labour can use it to get rid of Cunliffe or they will be confirmed to this result again in 2017.

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Green voters tend toward affluent, opinionated, educated, and proud of their vote, so they poll really high.

    Clutha-Southland has got about 75% turnout, after specials.
    Rangitata about the same. The big rural safe national seats are getting a somewhat low turnout and being counted first. It will swing left from here, just a matter of how much. Probably not enough, especially lacking Hone, as National gets one of those seats.


    Edit: Invercargil is more like the nationwide balance, but only 74% turnout. If it's low in the big cities National could be in alone.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to bmk,

    Seriously, what don’t people like about Cunliffe? He’s (apparently) literate? Occasionally speaks in complete sentences? Doesn’t have John Key’s face?

    For me, though, this is making the decision to apply for indefinite leave to remain in the UK and move on later this year much easier to make. What Mark Taslov says in the other thread about the 700,000 New Zealanders who have left the country really resonates. Why are New Zealanders so politically naive? So easily lied to? It can’t just be the media, surely?

    Ah well, I guess if I ever get homesick, I can always Google pictures of Wellington seascapes. :/

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Having trouble understanding how, even in a strong Labour electorate, party vote goes to National. Just seems wrong to me.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Greg Dawson,

    If we're looking at three years of a national owned parliament crowing about a mandate to break the law, lie, cheat, and steal the nations assets... yeah I get why people leave the country.

    I know the precedent is watergate, and nixon's resounding re-election after the story broke, but god it's depressing. It is the sort of thing that makes you wonder just how little you know the people you live with.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 294 posts Report Reply

  • tussock, in reply to bmk,

    In terms of Labour the problem is simply Cunliffe.

    I don't think that's true, you know. Cunliffe held the party share of the undecided once he got campaigning, the last six weeks labour held and National lost nearly 10% in the polls. Before then the National Party attack machine was on and anyone would have failed at that.

    The mass media (which, BTW, gets millions of views every day, unlike here or any other blog) simply bought into the National-Slater newsfeed like it was a real series of independent leaks. All labour voters saw was this appearance of a deceitful man. The basic idea is they attack them for their strengths, with Shearer they'd have dug up something to ruin his humanitarianism, with Cunliffe they targeted his honesty and policy numbers, with blatant lies that the media simply print en masse, because that's who he is.


    Plus, votes aren't counted yet.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Looking like a National win. Its amazing what some people will do for money. A Nation of whores? Or a rigged election?

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • bmk, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    Seriously, what don’t people like about Cunliffe? He’s (apparently) literate?

    What I repeatedly hear from my partner, co-workers etc is that he 'looks fake', 'smarmy'. I get the feeling he says what he thinks people want to hear. He seems smug and pleased with himself. I would hear him on National Radio and think no way can i vote for this guy (and this was without even seeing him). Whereas the moment David Shearer stopped being leader he sounded so articulate - I think the party only needed to stick with him and give him more media training.

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    NZ used to have reputation as a place that believed in "fair play". I wonder if some of what we've seen here is that fair play spirit working to defend the local boy against the attacks of a suspect foreigner.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    I wonder if some of what we've seen here is that fair play spirit working to defend the local boy against the attacks of a suspect foreigner.

    With a good deal of media support for that view.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1435 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    80% Dunedin South turnout. It is higher in the more Labour areas (though both Dunedin electorates are mixed now, rural and city).

    Hone Harawira is out by the look of it, that's a big cost to the left.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • tussock, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    A Nation of

    Language, sir. Manners, and it's not done yet. Big boxes come last, and they come hard for the left.

    Having said that, last election what I heard from them was "well, yes, but I trust John Key". This election is was "well, yes, but we're doing alright".

    Thus the "don't rock the boat" ads. It was a good campaign they ran, avoided the policy like crazy, because no one likes them. But we are a nation of boomers just passing retirement age, with their houses paid for and everything in family trusts for the kids to dodge all the taxes, and the rest of us are going to be supporting them with everything we've got for a long time yet at this rate.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    83% Palmerston North. Trend is good for the cities. National seats have had a poor turnout, they usually have the better of it by quite a bit.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to tussock,

    Hone Harawira is out by the look of it, that’s a big cost to the left.

    But Kelvin Davis took the seat, is that good?

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to steven crawford,

    But Kelvin Davis took the seat, is that good?

    Depends on whether you reckon another Shane Jones is a good thing.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • krothville, in reply to tussock,

    Big boxes come last, and they come hard for the left.

    I don't think it'll be anywhere near enough. Word is that there are a lot of special votes this election, but I don't think it'll be enough to sway any of the seats. Most look like they have gone by a margin of over 1000.
    Also, I have a feeling those special votes are from first time voters who actually somehow or another managed to not complete the enrolment process.

    Since Sep 2014 • 73 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    The local Internet Party candidate’s Facebook page has suddenly vanished. Anyone know if Dotcom’s still in NZ?

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    Depends on whether you reckon another Shane Jones is a good thing.

    Nope.

    And this exemplifies why Labor turned me of. Not David’s Cunliffe’s personality. It was there attitude toward there potential coalition partners. It demonstrated a competitive rather than collaborative/ supportive culture.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to steven crawford,

    The post-mortem on Christchurch Central will be interesting.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • krothville, in reply to steven crawford,

    Yes, it was bloody ridiculous! I can't even understand what they were even thinking.

    Since Sep 2014 • 73 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Anyone know if Dotcom’s still in NZ?

    He was standing behind Leila Harre a few minutes ago, so I guess the answer is either yes, or he has a very expensive holographic representative

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Oh, 65% turnout in Manurewa. Yeh, never mind. Overs. Well done National, congratulations to the right. Played the man, not the ball, but it won you the game, so that's that.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    or he has a very expensive holographic representative

    If anyone would, he would.

    (Disclaimer: I party voted IM, and I’m bloody old. Now what about all the yoof that fiftysomethings who really should have known better were predicting would be motivated & mobilised by Dotcom’s shitemusic?)

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    I'd quite like the opportunity to scream at John Key, too.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

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