Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Time to Vote

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  • Sacha, in reply to WH,

    the parties to the left of Labour are complicating its effort to present the image it needs to attract broad-based, non-partisan support.

    perhaps Labour needs to relinquish its claim to the whole of the left rather than whatever parts it actually deserves to keep?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • tussock, in reply to krothville,

    So things could get worse.

    Hone could win on specials too, but it's not likely.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to tussock,

    Hone could win on specials too, but it’s not likely.

    I think Bryce Edwards claimed earlier that he did well on specials last election.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Greg Dawson,

    I’d really like to understand what happened to the Green vote.

    I'd guess they lost some votes to IM. I know they lost mine to it. Not really that bummed about any of this, though. It's not like I was expecting the Left to win. The best I was hoping was that Winston would get JK to blow him before giving him the keys again. Yes, it's a bummer for Labour. But I'm not going to move to the right just to make Labour feel better, and if they want to move to the right (as Jose Pagani and Matthew Hooten, presumably chosen to go against each other for "balance", agreed about all night long) then I will be even less likely to vote for them. Furthermore I think it would be bad for the country. They did the right thing, to provide genuine opposition, but unfortunately this country just isn't ready for that yet. Maybe they won't be ready for it again, ever, but that's never going to change me into thinking we should all just get with the program and turn right wing.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Sacha,

    When people get over the emotion of individuals competing against each other thus splitting that vote A Party vote is essential as a concentrated effort for one side to include all on the Left. Pick an individual for Electorate and make a plan with the biggest Party (labour) to bring everyone together.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • WH,

    perhaps Labour needs to relinquish its claim to the whole of the left rather than whatever parts it actually deserves to keep?

    On a night National claimed 48% support, I have to believe Labour can improve on 25%.

    Key's leadership is aggregating the right's support, but total progressive support is currently below 40%. The space from the centre (NZ First) to the right has 60%.

    I know we all very broadly want the same things.

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Labour either needs to

    1: Get massive turnout, which they've had a go at a few times now and it's just not the same as with Auntie Helen. It wasn't the same as with Auntie Helen even when it was, really, 2005 wasn't exactly glorious, and that's a long time ago now anyway. The crowds from 99/02 are older.

    2: Get a very small number of the people who voted National today, to vote Labour or Green in 3 years time instead. Or NZF. Which doesn't actually seem to be about hurting their turnout, because that didn't work either. They just need to steal away 2% or so, because that's a 4 point shift and that's a left wing government.

    Though then National can just give the nod to Conservative in a seat somewhere next time and get a free 4% extra. And give Winston some prizes for another 10% on that. I don't know, maybe they should just promise irresponsible tax cuts for the rich. Despite most people not actually benefiting, most people fucking well vote for it don't they, even if it's for the next election and not this one. Surprisingly (eh?), no one really voted for more taxes to pay for the things they want government to do. Promise economic miracles instead, like the right do. Growth will pick up, you see. Fairy dust, people love it.

    Chase that ignorant racist self-centred bigot middle voter like they do in Oz by torturing refugees on the evening news.


    3: Figure out why the fuck so many people under 40 don't care either way. That could be the lack of them hearing any difference, you know. National is very quick at pouncing on popular Labour policies and claiming them as their own (in some cruelly watered-down version that gives more to the rich). People used to vote more than this.



    Again, congrats to the Nats. If only they'd apply their mastery of politic to getting the country behind building a decent future for the place.




    Edit: Killing the Alliance. Trying to kill the Māori Party. Killing the Mana Movement. It's not helping. That's where some of that missing turnout is, seats that aren't there to vote against National. There's people like that genuine left wing thing, eh. The war in Afghanistan started the rot, all this shit eating sitting in opposition and getting your people bought off by Murray (present) because they never got Cabinet pay, that's not helping. The internal ideological shit-fights over direction, just apply some fucking science, do some polling, and find out what should work, eh.

    Stop listening to idiot trolls like me. For goodness sake, Labour.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to tussock,

    Though then National can just give the nod to Conservative in a seat somewhere next time and get a free 4% extra. And give Winston some prizes for another 10% on that.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    So with MMP you can candidate vote Labour while crossing your fingers behind your back and party voting National. Not many appear to do it the other way around though.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca,

    Our Country just got evidence of absolute corruption ,of uneasy collaboration ,of sleaze in it's lowest form, of squirming and lies from the incumbant and still, yes as stupid as some are ,they accepted the teapot saga ,the propaganda and the belief that the riches of the few would someday be theirs and it never happens because it's already decided whose in the patronising Club. I don't care if anyone wants to wipe National's arse but in reality that is a Party that is so below the belt, to support their shite is to support corruption. I despair and "whatever" to anyone who wants to defend that poison

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to tussock,

    The internal ideological shit-fights over direction, just apply some fucking science, do some polling, and find out what should work, eh.

    Or Plan B, actually ask some hard and honest questions about why so many incumbent Labour MPs, most of whom held their seats by considerable margins, couldn’t carry the party vote in their own patches. We’re not talking flaky swing seats but Labour heartlands like Christchurch East, Dunedin North (narrowly) and South, Port Hills, Rimutaka, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, New Lynn, Rongotai, Wellington Central, Mana… And while I’m sure there’s some perfectly justified merry-making that Labour has held Palmerston North and picked up Napier, those electorate wins were most certainly not reflected on the other side of the ballot.

    Figuring out that kind of disconnect, let alone reversing it, is going to take a wee bit more than polling and some serious soul searching about where they're pointing and how they're going to get there. It’s not easy, fast or pleasant (as National learned the hard way after 2002) but it needs to be done because I may be a Tory but I’m also a citizen who needs a strong and effective opposition.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    So with MMP you can candidate vote Labour while crossing your fingers behind your back and party voting National

    I'm going to try do the numbers cos it don't make sense and that scares me even!

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • WH,

    Stop listening to idiot trolls like me

    One of the challenges I deal with when wearing my professional hat (I do love a good hat) is that some people will say pretty much anything that'll pass in risible efforts to "win the conversation". Whether or not these people succeed depends on who's there and how closely they're listening. Sometimes people just can't be bothered with the conflict.

    The term "conventional wisdom" was coined by JK Galbraith to describe various kinds of unthinking orthodoxy, and I think that's a fair description of many right wing economic nostrums. I don't want to pretend that appeals to the middle ground don't have problems.

    Notwithstanding all that, I hope that Labour can develop a group of leaders (rather than just a single party leader) that ordinary voters feel they can trust to exercise good judgment on their behalf. Unfortunately, this sort of thing takes time to build up, and is not really amenable to the kind of media coverage politicians typically receive.

    If the broader left can contribute to that goal (eg, as I think Laila Harre and Jeanette Fitzsimons do) then great.

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to WH,

    If the broader left can contribute to that goal (eg, as I think Laila Harre and Jeanette Fitzsimons do) then great.

    So would Sue Bradford, who with some justification must be feeling a touch vindicated, be part of that broader left?

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • WH,

    So would Sue Bradford, who with some justification must be feeling a touch vindicated, be part of that broader left?

    Part of the broader left, yes. Consistently contributing towards Labour's goals, no (IMO).

    Why would you say she has been vindicated?

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    So with MMP you can candidate vote Labour while crossing your fingers behind your back and party voting National. Not many appear to do it the other way around though.

    I actually know a couple of right-ish folks in Auckland Central who voted for Nikki Kaye but party voted Labour on the grounds that Jacinda Adern probably needed the back up more judging from the polls. Not a bad call on the whole, as things turned out.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to WH,

    Why would you say she has been vindicated?

    Because she could claim,with some justification, to have foreseen where the MegaMana marriage was headed.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    because I may be a Tory but I’m also a citizen who needs a strong and effective opposition.

    It’ll be ok Craig. You still got crusher et el.Tell me how or why does someone vote person Labour and Party National? It doesn’t make sense? Do people believe the economy shite but revile the dirty corrupt stuff so giving a vote to labour as an expression of distaste whilst keeping the cats who are going to favour the well off, ipso facto you.? I say you because any intelligent being must know this evidence to be true yet still want these people in your life. I just don’t get the numbers

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    I actually know a couple of right-ish folks in Auckland Central who voted for Nikki Kaye but party voted Labour on the grounds that Jacinda Adern probably needed the back up more judging from the polls. Not a bad call on the whole, as things turned out.

    Sounds pretty enlightened, though given the high Labour candidate vote coupled with a high National party vote in so many electorates – including Cunliffe’s – it has to be something of an exception.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • WH, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Internet Mana's total party vote actually increased, from 24,168 to a provisional 26,539.

    I feel for Hone Harawira a bit. It must have been a tough night for him.

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    it has to be something of an exception.

    Exactly, it don't make any sense.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    voted for Nikki Kaye but party voted Labour on the grounds that Jacinda Adern probably needed the back up more judging from the polls.

    Ah, so you consider pity from polls. Brilliant. Polls that noone can understand at the best of times?

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to WH,

    I feel for Hone Harawira a bit. It must have been a tough night for him.

    Bradford aside, I really can't see that he's been punished for straying from the high moral ground. There are people within Labour who should have been squirming at the cheers at ACT HQ over Hone's defeat.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    So with MMP you can candidate vote Labour while crossing your fingers behind your back and party voting National. Not many appear to do it the other way around though

    Stranger things have happened. You’d imagine there’s a point where the rubber band of plausibility just snaps, but no.

    Look Joe at the end of the day Kiwis are honest hardworking people and when some foreign political types come here and try to tell us about our Government then of course there’s going to be a backlash, I want to leave New Zealand in better shape than I found it. I know the job of prime minister is not forever and I’m going to do the best I can every day to make that difference. I dare you to show me one example where I haven’t discharged my responsibility seriously, professionally and appropriately. In the end Kiwi’s are a trusting people so they should rightly trust me.

    $ir nonce

    Quite clearly the number of rich people in New Zealand has skyrocketed since the last election. But what are you going to do, break the 9 year cycle?

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • WH, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Bradford aside, I really can't see that he's been punished for straying from the high moral ground. There are people within Labour who should have been squirming at the cheers at ACT HQ over Hone's defeat

    To the extent that Harawira is seeking a fair shake for his people I have a degree of sympathy for him. Having said that, there was a certain inevitability about what happened.

    I bought a 1970's vintage left wing text on a whim the other day. The preface says that:

    This failure of many of our younger activists to understand the art of communication has been disastrous. Even the most elementary grasp of the fundamental idea that one communicates within the experience of his audience - and gives full respect to the other's values - would have ruled out [certain kinds of protest]. [...]

    As an organiser I start from where the world is, as it is, not as I would like it to be. That we accept the world as it is does not in any sense weaken our desire to change it into what we believe it should be [but it does mean] working within the system.

    Since Nov 2006 • 797 posts Report Reply

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