Hard News: The Sky is the limit
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
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the same modeling
Exactly. There’s a whole industry of economists who can produce back of an envelope calculations with the fudge factors on warpdrive to justify spending taxpayer dollars pouring some more concrete.
If there is a huge untapped market of people wanting to fly across the world for conferences, why won’t they pay enough in hall rental to make the centre viable? And if the conference centre is a loss leader for hotels, then why don’t the hotel industry get together and fund it themselves?
Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?
The visitor arrivals don’t seem to show that – they creep slowly upwards with occasional slumps when the world economy tanks. I don’t see a return here that justifies the hype.
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And, just in case you think those nips in the graph represent actual real benefits of movies and ball games, above are the Australian figures for the period. They have different boondoggles, but their data tracks ours remarkably well
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matthew, in reply to
Try Snap. By far the best telco ive come across (and ive tried most). You may spend a few extra dollars but its absolutely worth it. Their customer service is superb and they are even based in Christchurch so you'll be supporting a local business.
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Joyce to his officials:
"Won't somebody rid me of this turbulent lease?"
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?
There's actually reasonable evidence that however much we might cringe, Middle-Earth marketing is effective for New Zealand:
"The 6.0 per cent growth we saw for the year ending December 2013, and the continuing growth of 7.3 per cent through to year-end February 2014, is the kind of growth not seen in a decade. We wanted to know what impact our work was having on this remarkable result.
"While it is clear that improving economies and increased airline capacity are supporting tourism growth, in many countries, New Zealand's high dollar is working against this positivity."
"What NZIER found was that marketing factors were having a considerable impact in five long-haul markets. And the strongest of these factors was the impact of New Zealand's association with Middle-earth and the new Hobbit films," says Kevin.
The LOTR/Hobbit productions have also been pretty good for Wellington, of course.
The rebates for the films cost about the same as (or a little more than) the economic activity they generate, but I don't think tourism is counted in that.
And Auckland got a notable infrastructure boost as part of the Rugby World Cup (how much economic activity the RWC generated is another matter).
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The 6.0 per cent growth we saw for the year ending December 2013, and the continuing growth of 7.3 per cent through to year-end February 2014, is the kind of growth not seen in a decade
From NZIER, one of the many economics consultancies who make a living from justifying corporate welfare.
See the second graph I posted. Australia enjoyed much the same turn-up in arrivals in 2013/14 without any Hobbits. Possibly due to both our dollars falling.
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Over the last decade or so, we’ve had well over a billion of public money (along with designer legislation) gifted to various corporations for events and productions that would, allegedly, transform our economy with a flood of tourists. Did this work?
I assume the service industries workforce enjoying better wages would be an indication. I can't sorce those statistics just now, I am having difficulty trying to use my telephone as a computer:)
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Herald editorial: 'SkyCity must meet its side of bargain'.
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Sacha, in reply to
an indication
I'd say total income from tourism, and more narrowly conferences, might be relevant measures. Often wild guesswork, I agree, but StatsNZ, MBIE et al do collect some. Presume the NZICC business case discussed all this too. Plenty seem unimpressed with the latest turn of events, in any case.
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Matthew Hooton, in reply to
I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important
Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings. This is what drives all "commercial" activity by the public sector.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
He really wants a safe National seat, doesn’t he?
I'm quite happy to do my bit to make sure he doesn't even get shortlisted for one north of the Harbour Bridge. (Which reminds me I've got to collect some Kate Sheppards from some folks who were a tad over confident that Colin Craig was going to be "gifted" East Coast Bays. Beats working...)
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
The rebates for the films cost about the same as (or a little more than) the economic activity they generate, but I don’t think tourism is counted in that.
And Auckland got a notable infrastructure boost as part of the Rugby World Cup (how much economic activity the RWC generated is another matter).
Yeah, but there's still reasonable expectations for a LOT more clarity about the assumptions -- and rather dodgy spin -- involved in economic benefit guess-timates that tend to be quoted in the media as holy writ.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
I’d say total income from tourism, and more narrowly conferences, might be relevant measures.
I think Auckland could use a central city conference theatre that held 3500, and a big, modern exhibition space. Major Pacific-rim cities have this kind of facility.
They'd be well sited for future public transport developments under the current plan -- shame it's just really not desirable for them to be run by those SkyCity people.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
So after bitching about and needlessly politicising any number of considered spending decisions, Brewer is happy to kick in a council subsidy on this?
He really wants a safe National seat, doesn’t he?
The story so far: Cr Brewer will probably step down from AKL politics to focus on his spin consultancy. Still, that doesn't preclude him from being given the preferential Epsom treatment.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Herald editorial: 'SkyCity must meet its side of bargain'.
And in a good sign, the vast majority of comments (last I checked at least) are against SkyCity going cap in hand.
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Sacha, in reply to
giving Orsman far too much credit. This assessment is but one tiny example of his stupidity.
the most effective opposition voice around the council table
Utter lightweight.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important
Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings. This is what drives all “commercial” activity by the public sector.
So who might Auckland's Francis de Groot be? There's no lack of potential candidates among the Len Brown haters.
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Sacha, in reply to
Because politicians get to cut the ribbons at their openings
I agree. Something as sad as that too. Small men desire big buildings.
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Sacha, in reply to
So who might Auckland's Francis de Groot be? There's no lack of potential candidates among the Len Brown haters.
That CRL is a grand plan, guv.
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I remember when the Aotea convention center opened. Cookstreet market closed and Friday night died.
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Sacha, in reply to
Thank you. Never heard that snippet of history. Funny that.
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linger, in reply to
both our dollars falling
Against what? E.g. the yen has fallen 10% against the Kiwi over the last 2 years.
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I still don’t understand why these glamor convention centers are so important
I can perfectly understand why San Diego is rather keen to spend an awful lot money expanding the San Diego Convention Center (largely financed with an enormously controversial hotel tax that has been tied up in legal challenges for years), when over four days San Diego Comic-Con alone has attendance in excess of 130,000.
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steven crawford, in reply to
Hotel tax. Now that's an appropriate way to pay for these things. One way to hide the tax, is by raising the minimum wages for the hotel workers, so that the extra tax take from that, can help pay for the public/privet ball rooms.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
the most effective opposition voice around the council table
Utter lightweight.
That’s just ridiculous. Brewer is perennially on the margins. Getting your name in the paper a lot is not being “effective”. But I guess it does explain Orsman's approach.
Brewer contriving to find himself in a minority of one today over the convention centre is hilarious though.
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