Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The perils of political confidence

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  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to BenWilson,

    Absolutely.

    Except that Labour are presenting things as "nothing much wrong, just need a few tweaks and a change of faces". There are some bits of a plan, but no acknowledgement that we have a bit of a problem.

    Ok, so we don't see the issues that Europe does right now, but that's on a pretty slender thread - if people in Guangzhou etc. suddenly decide to stop buying expensive yoghurt, or get some of their own cows, we're screwed.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    This is actually what’s happening to our middle classes, who were heavily encouraged to build up this economy, and tertiary education skyrocketed. But the dividends of it are mostly not reaped locally.

    Once again, my 3 under-employed post-grad friends are testament to that. We have no trouble producing the know-how, were it not for one not-so-small problem. Most of those with money don't have the vision, and most of those with vision don't have the money. And the two camps have polar opposite world views.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5429 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    The knowledge economy is a flop.

    On the contrary. We're in a major global transformation from industrial through information into creative/fashion focuses in value production, similar to the earlier shift from agriculture to industry.

    It doesn't mean we stop growing food, processing it, unblocking drains or managing basic information. It does however mean there's more of a future in marketing, analysis, service/relationship and innovation activities than on the factory shop floor or the farm.

    The explosion in similar 'creativity' in an under-regulated and over-leveraged finance industry is causing huge problems. But the answer is not to send people back onto farms or into trades. Plumbing as you've noted is not a revenue-earning export industry that will help us pay our way in the world.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Except that Labour are presenting things as "nothing much wrong, just need a few tweaks and a change of faces"

    Their Capital Gains Tax and compulsory workplace savings proposals go well beyond that. It's National who are proposing more of the same.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks, in reply to merc,

    From merc’s link:

    John Key,

    If you went to New Zealanders and said, ‘would you like to borrow another $7 billion in the world’s markets where debt is a major issue, and that’s what has dragged down Italy, and Greece, and Ireland, and Portugal and Spain, or would you like to build no new infrastructure at all for the next five years and pretend we’re going to be a growth economy, or would you like to have the Air New Zealand model operating in a few more companies’ I think you’d get a different answer.

    In other words, if you ask a loaded enough question, you might get the answer you want.

    He then goes on to avoid the question about what National would do if there was another economic crisis, and they've already sold almost half the asset shares.

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1164 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Steve Parks,

    would you like to borrow another $7 billion (thought you had?)
    build no new infrastructure (you haven't planned to)
    and pretend we’re going to be a growth economy, (shall we?)
    the Air New Zealand model operating in a few more companies’ (my fav, I thought the Govt. bailed them out with 850million?)
    I think you’d get a different answer. (what was the question again)

    Ambiguous much?

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    It doesn't mean we stop growing food, processing it, unblocking drains or managing basic information. It does however mean there's more of a future in marketing, analysis, service/relationship and innovation activities than on the factory shop floor or the farm.

    I don't think we should stop any economic activity at all, but I do think that managing information is commoditizing really fast, because there is no real barrier to it any more. Which means it's no more lucrative a sector than others, indeed is more likely to be highly efficient, which is always going to load heavily towards lower economies. If the value of skills turnover is shortening as things change so rapidly, there's very, very little competitive advantage that can be maintained.

    There is an information revolution, that is true, but that doesn't mean it can necessarily be tapped for profit. There is an open source revolution too, and that as a concept is very much geared towards being very difficult to exploit for profit. It's just a massive cost saver, a democratizer of intellectual property, which benefits mostly those who invest in it least, just taking what they want from it for profit here and there and saving cost themselves.

    Furthermore, I'm not prepared to rail against anything so damned righteous. These things should be for everyone, they are self-revolutionizing the world without any need for agreement from elites. Indeed elites hate them desperately.

    I frankly don't know what can be done to keep our relative wealth above the developing world, indeed I think that if the world were a fairer place, that would be very difficult indeed, which suggests that it is becoming a fairer place, at least in a regional sense. What we should be focusing on for our own country is making it a fairer place within the region we influence ie NZ. And that is entirely a matter of social organization with no reference to any factors of what we import or export or do for ourselves.

    I'll have to think on this more, but the above do seem to me at least partially true.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    I do think that managing information is commoditizing really fast

    That's right. As I say, the leading focus has moved past that to higher value creativity - like film, fashion, software design and marketing (rather than processing or even coding), service personalisation, innovation. Yet many people's thinking hasn't.

    When we talk about innovation and enterprise, it's also why culture industries and suchlike are really important, not just science or manufacturing or food.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • hamishm,

    A quick spin in the time machine has unearthed this example of the political genius we have in charge.

    Since Nov 2006 • 357 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to hamishm,

    Laughable, methinks the guy doth protest way too much,
    “I just don’t accept the poll to be perfectly honest,” he said.
    Rule 1. anyone who says to be perfectly honest never could be, can be or will be. It’s like frankly or absolutely, his writer will have to dig deep to ever position Key as one of us after smokedteapottape.
    Also what’s with this new Keyspeak whereby he gets to say what he’s unhappy about and we are supposed to console him with a vote?
    Harden up dude, you may not win, deal with it just as we will deal with it if you get in and start taking apart everything that’s worked pretty well to date barring offshore greed, oh and I note that RWC made us spend more on our cards, shot bro!

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to merc,

    Laughable, methinks the guy doth protest way too much,
    “I just don’t accept the poll to be perfectly honest,” he said.

    It’s actually quite interesting if the Horizon poll does turn out to have spotted the Peters trend before anyone else’s. David Farrar and others have been keen to point out what’s wrong with its methodology, but Keith Rankin thought it was in some ways more useful, especially in spotting trends – because the panel largely doesn’t change.

    And, well, this:

    A Horizon poll of 2874 people is projecting National on 46 seats in a 122-seat parliament, and Labour and the Greens on 50.

    That leaves 26 seats to decide the government and, according to Horizon, Winston Peters’ New Zealand First is on track to take up to 13 of them.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22830 posts Report Reply

  • merc,

    Ssssh the levels of crazy will be upped to extreme if they even suspect that, oh wait ;-)
    Keith Rankin is right about the undecided votes.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    That leaves 26 seats to decide the government and, according to Horizon, Winston Peters’ New Zealand First is on track to take up to 13 of them.

    And when NZ First's party secretary is one of the people behind Grey Power's vile spew on "Asian" immigrants, I really hope some of the nice white media folks cooing over Winston feel suitably ashamed of themselves. Won't hold my breath waiting though.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to merc,

    It’s like frankly or absolutely

    I tend to use 'frankly' where I probably should be using "with respect" :)

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Sacha,

    I can’t say frankly without thinking of the Smiths, or John Clarke who would as Fred Dagg say…to be perfectly Francis with you.
    Most preface or exit statements I find on my part are onerous.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • hamishm, in reply to merc,

    My god, Mozza and Bill Shankly, who would explode first?

    Since Nov 2006 • 357 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX, in reply to Islander,

    Labour has a plan. It’s publically out there- and I think it will work.

    I watched the leaders debate tonight on TV3 and considered Goff largely avoided "the Plan' which is not perhaps seen as a winner.

    I felt both John Goff and Phill Key had the stuff of which Prime Ministers are made of.

    Goff has done a hell of a job to stave off a total collapse of the Labour Vote though I don't think it is enough for a win and the seeds for that go quite away back. In a leftist nutshell Goff hasn't been well supported - his quality showed.

    Key came across strong and balanced on Asset Sales and Goff avoided CGT. Both of these things I don't consider need to happen.

    I felt Key had a better handle on managing the economy which comes in part from actually being the government.

    I think it will be close and Labour will win back traditional voters who have left to vote green - the vote split between NZ First, Labour and the Greens which I don't see as a stable coalition - could result in National Governing on their own.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to DexterX,

    Collapse of Act and possibly Peter Dunne will be the deciders. More Greens are voting now they have reached the reproducing and mortgage years; it's a demographic change of voting patterns not a policy-driven change, though Russell Norman has turned around the red-green hue to a more fashionable lime.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2898 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to hamishm,

    History is written by the last one standing ;-)

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to merc,

    History is written by the last one standing ;-)

    Make that "last wiki standing"

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2898 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX, in reply to merc,

    History is written by the last one standing ;-)

    The past is a different country/world.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • merc,

    Both leaders were standing last night ;-) both made contrary statements, I'd like to know the truth.
    -Have jobs increased or decreased under Key's Govt?
    -Did National inherit a deficit with 3 quarters in recession in 2008?
    -Have wages gone up 10% under John?
    -Were the tax cuts fiscally neutral and what does that mean?
    -How does John know we will make between 7 -9 billion from assert sales? (2 billion is also a hell of a variation).
    ...and so on.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • 3410,

    -Have wages gone up 10% under John?

    No, it's a trick. The 10% figure that Key claims is "after tax"; in other words, most of that is counting cuts in PAYE rates, but not counting GST increase. Actual increase significantly less than 10%.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to 3410,

    And no mention of inflation?

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to merc,

    -How does John know we will make between 7 -9 billion from assert sales? (2 billion is also a hell of a variation).

    You want the truth? He doesn't, any more than Goff's touching faith in Treasury projections is well-founded. I don't think it would be fair to call Goff and Key stone cold liars, but I really hope Cunliffe and English aren't believing their own Pollyanna acts.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

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